7-31-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 7-31-09

igz1 sports

Friday Card
MLB
3* Detroit RL -1.5 (+120) (Jackson)
3* Over 10 (-105) LA Angels (Santana) vs Minnesota (Blackburn)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 7-31-09

Matt Rivers

100,000* MONSTER MONSTER LOCK Plus Bonus Lock
Your winners here are on:



1. 100,000? Red Sox

2. 50,000? Brewers





1. I am not going to at all try and defend the recent play from Terry Francona's Red Sox, save the last few innings yesterday, because it has been beyond brutal. Boston has regressed terribly over the past few weeks and it is a total possibility that they may not even make the playoffs, even with that last comeback win over the A's



John Smoltz gets the ball for Boston and he has been anything but good of late. The future Hall of Famer has struggled immensely and is not the same guy that was with the Braves, I fully understand that. But Smoltz was very solid in that game about a month ago at Camden Yards before the rains came and he had his win stolen from him because of the unreal Oriole 10-1 comeback where the birds prevailed 11-10. If there is ever a case that the baseball Gods or Karma or whatever you want to call it will even things up then this is it. I'm not saying that I handicap on those feelings at all because that is a bit silly but let's be honest here, Smoltz still has enough in the tank to be alright and the Red Sox are still the far superior team today with the much better bullpen.



Jeremy Guthie is alright. The righthander can be very good at times but he also can be pretty poor at times. In other words he is a feast or famine type hurler so you never fully know what is up with him. His last outing was bad in Fenway and I don't believe we will see a 180 today and watch Guthrie look anything above mediocre.



Look for Pedroia, Bay, Lowell, Big Papi, Ellsbury and the Sox to flex their muscles and take care of business here at this bargain basement price. We really are looking at a steal of a price as Boston wins this game a lot more than the oddsmaker seems to believe.







2. The Padres did play a little better in that last series in Cincinnati but don't let that fool you one bit as they flat out do not hit at home in PETCO Park. Besides Adrian Gonzalez there is very little talent and to get Fielder, Braun and the far more talented Brewers at this cheap cheap price is way too good to pass up.



Both Braden Looper and Chad Gaudin are decent enough Major Leaguers. Neither is great but when push comes to shove I'll take my chances on Looper. He has been better for sure as a starter then when he closed games for the Mets and is your typical six inning three run type of a guy which is definitely good enough with his high powered offense.



Obviously PETCO is a total pitchers' ballpark and with the Padres horrible offense I fully believe that Looper is going to have a really really solid outing and in the end that will be more than enough for the far better Brewers to do their thing.



San Diego is probably the worst team in all of baseball and to get the Brew Crew at this number, even away from Miller Park, is just fine with me!

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 7-31-09

LT Profits - 100% Confirmed.Won 6 Straight Days - 9-3 Last 12



Friday July 31st 2009
-- Major League Baseball --
7:05p
LT Profits
Detroit Tigers r969
-1.5 (115) / 2 units

MLB DETROIT TIGERS -1.5 +115 (Bet Jamaica – Fri., 7/31/09, 7:00 ET)

7:10p
LT Profits
Arizona Diamondbacks r957
New York Mets r958
u9.0 (-125) / 2 units

MLB DIAMONDBACKS/METS UNDER 9 -125 (Bet Jamaica – Fri., 7/31/09, 7:00 ET)

10:15p
LT Profits
Philadelphia Phillies r965
-1.5 (-110) / 2 units

MLB PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES -1.5 -110 ***MLB PLAY OF THE DAY*** (Bet Jamaica – Fri., 7/31/09, 10:15 ET) -

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 7-31-09

MTI Top 5 star play

5-Star LA Angels +140 over MINNESOTA - The Angels beat the Tribe 9-3 on Wednesday to get to 60-40 on the season. They are a significant dog here because Blackburn has great numbers at home and the Twins have won four straight. However, the Angels have scored at least six runs in nine of their last ten games and they are very tough to beat when they are putting up big numbers. The Angels have not lost this season on the road when they are off a 5+ run win, going a perfect 8-0.
The Angels are motivated by three things: when they facing a team on a winning streak, when they are a dog vs a team with a worse record and when they are a dog when they won the last time they faced their opponent's starting pitcher. All three are active here. The Halos are a best-in-league 32-14 vs a team that has won at least their last four games (o:streak>=4 and date>=20050501 and team) including 15-6 as a road DOG vs a team that has won at least their last three games. Also, LA is 9-4 since May as an underdog vs a team that has a worse record and a scintillating 15-3 as a DOG when they won the last time they faced their opponent's starting pitcher. Yikes!
Both these teams are off wire-to-wire wins. However, Minnesota is 0-6 as a favorite of more than 110 when they are off a win in which they never trailed and the Angels are 6-0 THIS season in the first game of a road series when they are off a win in which they never trailed, with two of the six wins as a dog.
Many squares will lay this big number citing the fact that Minnesota is 11-1 their last dozen when Nick Blackburn starts as a home favorite and Ervin Santana lasted only three and two-thirds in his last start, allowing six runs. However, this information does not give any line value because the linesmakers KNOW that Blackburn has been a good investment at home and they KNOW that Santana was bombed in his last start. Less well known is the fact that the Angels are a staggering 21-4 when their starter went less than four innings in his last start! They are 11-1 their last dozen in this situation and they have not lost in this spot this season. Finally, the Angels are a perfect 10-0 with Santana in the first game of a road series - including 3-0 this season. We give the Angels a significantly better than even chance at winning here and they are a BIG dog. We're playing LA on the adjusted run line (-1.5 runs at a big price).
MTi's FORECAST: LA ANGELS 8 Minnesota 3
Bigcheez is online now Reply With Quote

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 7-31-09

MTi's CHEAP CHALK (4.5-Star)

4-Star NY METS -110 over Arizona - The Mets lost 4-2 in the nightcap yesterday to break a five-game winning streak. They led 1-0 after five, but the Rockies tied it up in the sixth and went on to win 4-2. We expect that they'll get right back to their winning ways tonight. The Mets are 8-1 since late April in the first game of a series when they are off a loss in which they held the lead. Their only loss was by a single run against the Yankees and Chamberlain as a 185 dog. More specifically, NY is 6-0 THIS season in the first game of a home series when they are off a loss in which they held the lead, winning each of the last four by multiple runs.
Hernandez has produced wins in two straight starts, going seven innings in each and allowing 2 and 3 runs respectively. The Mets are a reliable 5-0 since May at home when they won the last two games their starter started.
Arizona is off a 4-0 shutout of the Phillies and they send Doug Davis to the hill to face the Mets. The Diamondbacks are a huge money-burner in this spot. The Snakes are 0-19 as a dog when they are off a win in which they never trailed and their starter lasted more than six innings (team=Diamondbacks and D and po:BL=0 and p:SIP>6 and 20080524<=date) - including 0-10 THIS season.
In his last start, Doug Davis went six innings and allowed no runs in a 7-0 win over the Pirates. Well, Arizona is 0-5 THIS season when Doug Davis starts as a dog after going at least 6 innings and giving up no home runs.
The price is right.
MTi's FORECAST: NY METS 5 Arizona 2

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 7-31-09

MTi's FALSE FAVORITE (4.5-Star)

4-Star LA Dodgers +155 over ATLANTA - Both these teams won on the road in extra innings by scoring multiple runs in the top of the tenth. LA broke a four game losing streak yesterday with a 5-3 win over the Cardinals in ten innings and the Braves broke a 2-game losing streak with a 6-3 win in Florida in ten innings.
The Dodgers outhit the Cards 12-6 and this is a positive indicator. LA is 11-2 as a ROAD DOG after a win in which they had at least a dozen hits, including 8-1 THIS season and 5-0 their last five. In the first game of a series, the Dodgers are 8-1 THIS season when they are off a win in which they allowed six or fewer hits, including 4-0 if it is the first game of a road series.
The Dodgers put their game faces on when they are a dog vs a team with a worse record, going 14-8 as an underdog vs a team that has a worse record.
The obvious reason why the Dodgers are such a huge dog here is the pitching match-up. In his last start, Schmidt allowed five runs in three innings and the Dodgers lost 8-6 to the Marlins. In his two starts, he has received plenty of run support and we expect the Dodgers' bats to support him better than expected here. LA is a perfect 5-0 THIS SEASON when their starter went less than four innings in his last start, out-scoring their opponent by an average of 4.8 runs per game.
In Hanson's last start, the Braves were shut out 4-0 as a dog in Milwaukee. Atlanta, unlike the Dodgers, does poorly when their pitcher got little run support in his last start. The Braves are 5-15 since late April as a favorite when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start.
The Braves won Hansen's first five starts, but are 1-3 his last four. There is a good chance that this will be his first home loss, as LA is a solid 3-3 their last six as a 150+ dog.
MTi's FORECAST: LA Dodgers 4 ATLANTA 3

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 7-31-09

Bob Balfe

Members Play

Atlanta Braves

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 7-31-09

Premier Capper

Twins and Angels Over 10 runs for 4 units

I will say this every time when we bet an over is that we need two struggling pitchers in a good spot to do it and I feel that we have that today in Minnesota. The starting pitching in this game is Santana (3-6 7.29 ERA) vs. Blackburn (8-5 3.82 ERA). Both pitchers just faced their opposing team last week in LA. Santana and Blackburn gave up 6 runs in 3.2 innings pitched. In Blackburn’s last 3 starts he has given up 17 runs in 15.2 innings pitched. Santana has been worse only having 2 quality starts in his last 9 games and giving up 5 ER or more in 7 outings. The Angels are 11-0 to the Over in their last 11 games against the AL Central and they are on a 23-6-1 run to the Over against a right handed starters. The Over is 5-0 in the Twins last 5 starts against right handed starters. With two struggling starters on the hill and with the Angels scoring runs at over 7 runs a game their last 10 games themselves I see a big advantage to the Over today.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 7-31-09

Seabass:

30* NYM over
30* LAD
50* CHW
50* BOS

100* PITT

100* "steam" -COL

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 7-31-09

Tony Bruno Wins

10x Cubs (20-9)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 7-31-09

Jack Jones

20* No-Doubt Rout on Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-115)

This is a game the Rays absolutely should win, and exactly the type of game they need to win to stay competitive in the AL Wildcard race. Sidney Ponson throws for the Royals tonight and this is a guy who is unreliable at best, particularly on the road. He's only thrown twice as the visitor this year, but in those games he has a 15.27 ERA and 2.87 WHIP. For the season, Ponson is 1-5 in 8 starts with a 5.68 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. On the other side of the diamond, the Rays throw David Price, who has been so-so for the most part, but who has thrown his best games at home this season. He is 3-1 on the year when throwing in Tampa with a 3.04 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. Price will be aided by a Tampa Bay offense that out performs Kansas City in almost every category. The Rays hit .274 as a team at home this season, while scoring 5.6 runs per game, a huge reason why they have an impressive 31-17 home record. Meanwhile, the Royals see their batting average dip to .241 on the road and their runs per game drop to 3.5, which is probably why they are just 17-29 on the road this season. The moneyline is much to high, but the runline here is well worth the risk as the Rays should win this one handily.


15* on Chicago Cubs -126

Rich Harden has pitched incredibly well for the Cubs on the road this season, earning a 4-1 record with a 2.03 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. He is finally starting to look like the pitcher that the Cubs hoped he would be when they brought him over. Over his last three games he is 2-0 with a 0.95 ERA and 0.53 WHIP, giving up just a total of 2 earned runs in 19 innings pitched. It's not just Harden that is stepping up his game for Chicago, the Cubs' offense is also picking up their pace. Over their last 7 games, the Cubs are hitting .310 as a team and scoring 7.6 runs per game, more than three runs per game more than they average on the season, and 2.6 more runs per game than the Marlins have scored over the past week. Harden and the Cubs stay hot with a win over Florida Friday night.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 7-31-09

GoodFella | MLB RunLine Fri, 07/31/09 - 7:35 PM ';
double-dime bet 972 TAM -1.5 (-120) Bodog vs 971 KAN
Analysis:

-Price and Ponson both must start or no action guys-



-Price has been very solid at home, and this will be KC's 1st time seeing the you?ng left-hander tonight, advantage Price & the Rays there-



-Price is 3-1 with a 2.96 ERA in six career appearances at Tropicana Field-



-Kansas City has lost 12 of the 13 starts by Ponson, who is 1-6 with a 6.79 ERA for the season-



-Ponson is a dreadful 0-2 on the road this season with a ERA of 15.27 and a WHIP of 2.872-



-Price is 3-1 in 5 starts at home this season, and has a very solid 3.04 ERA in those 5 home starts-

-KC has a PITIFUL bullpen & Tampa Bay has a clear cut bullpen advantage tonight-



-KC has a team Bullpen ERA of 4.96 and a WHIP of 1.523, while the Rays have a team bullpen ERA of 3.56 and a WHIP of 1.292-



-KC averages just 3.5 runs per game on the road and just 3.7 runs per game vs left-handed starters-



-Rays are 6-0 vs KC this season & KC is 1-8 their L/9 games vs left-handed starters-



-Here are the Rays (with 6 AB's or more) career #'s vs Ponson: Upton (7-12, .583 AVG, 2B) Crawford (8-36, .222 AVG, HR) Pena (5-12, .417 AVG, 2 2B's, HR) Zobrist (2-6, .333 AVG, HR) Navarro (3-11, .273 AVG) Gross (4-7, .571 AVG, 2B) Burrell (2-9, .222 AVG, HR) Kapler (5-16, .313 AVG, 2B)







-




GoodFella | MLB Money Line Fri, 07/31/09 - 7:05 PM ';
dime bet ml969 DET (-140) SportBet vs 970 CLE
Analysis:

-Jackson and Carmona both must start or no action-



-Carmona will be making his 1st big league start since June 4th at Minnesota....and Carmona for the season at home has these #'s: 5 starts, 0-3 record, 6.20 ERA, and a 1.946 WHIP-



-Jackson has been outstanding on the road this season: 11 starts, 3-4 record, 2.35 ERA, and a WHIP of 1.087-



-Jackson's 2 starts vs Cleveland this season: 2 starts, 2-0 record, 0.64 ERA, 14 IP, 1 ER, 9 hits, 3 BB, 11 K's-



-Detroit is just 1-7 their L/8 road games, but they are 7-2 vs Cleveland on the season, including 3-0 at Jacobs Field-



-Detroit holds clear cut advantage in the bullpen for the season & in both teams L/5 games: Cleveland team bullpen L/5 games: 6.00 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, 12 IP, 8 ER, 12 hits.....Detroit team bullpen L/5 games: 2.13 ERA, 1.230 WHIP, 12 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 7 hits, 8 BB-



-Detroit players career #'s vs Carmona: M.Cabrera (5-17, .294 AVG, 2 HR's) Granderson (12-27, .444 AVG, 3 2B's, 2 3B's, HR) Guillen (5-17, .294 AVG, HR) Inge (5-18, .278 AVG, 2 2B's) Santiago (3-11, .273 AVG) Thames is just (0-12) and Polanco is (3-13 2B)-



-Cleveland players career #'s vs Jackson: Cabrera (1-10, .100 AVG) Sizemore (3-17, .176 AVG, 2B) Victor Martinez (3-14, .214) Peralta (3-11, .273 AVG, HR) Shoppach (1-10, .100 AVG) Choo (3-2, .429 AVG, 2B) Haffner (3-7, .429 AVG, HR)-




GoodFella | MLB Money Line Fri, 07/31/09 - 7:10 PM ';
dime bet ml955 CHC (-120) SportBet vs 956 FLA
Analysis:

-Harden and Volstad both must start or no action-



-Cubs a RED HOT 6-1 their L/7 games & they have been smashing the baseball over that span-



-Harden L/3 starts= 2-0, 19 IP, 2 ER, 8 hits, 2 BB, 21 K's, 0.95 ERA & a WHIP of 0.526!!-



-Harden's last start on Sunday vs the Reds= 6 IP, 1 hit, 1 run, 0 BB, 8 K's-



-Harden on the road this season= 7 starts, 4-1 record, 2.03 ERA & a WHIP of 1.105-



-Volstad at home this season= 10 starts, 3-6 record, 5.24 ERA & a WHIP of 1.271-



-Volstad's last start on Sunday at Dodgers= 5 1/3 IP, 4 runs, 8 hits, 4 BB, 2 K's-



-Volstad L/3 starts= 18 2/3 IP, 9 ER, 19 hits, 9 BB, 9 K's, 4.42 ERA & a WHIP of 1.528-



-Cubs added 2 lefties to their bullpen recently from Pittsburgh, and they have a fairly rested bullpen due to blowing out the Astros a couple of games this week & I definitely see a bullpen edge for the Cubs tonight-

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 7-31-09

Craig Davis
Friday's Lineup
25 DIME ---- CARDINALS (with Boggs) -1 1/2 RUN LINE over ASTROS (with Moehler)

Today is one of those strange days in Major League Baseball because the trade deadline is here. It's the day teams jockey for certain players in an attempt to either make themselves stronger for a playoff run or prepare for the future by acquiring prospects. The Cardinals have already made a big splash when they acquired OF Matt Holliday last weekend while the Astros (at the time of this writing) have yet to make a big move. To be honest, I don't think it's really going to matter because St. Louis simply doesn't lose to Houston at home. They've won the last five meetings with the Astros at home and seven of the last eight, winning with better starting pitching and better offense.

Tonight's starter, Mitchell Boggs, is a virtual unknown outside of the fantasy baseball world, but his work hasn't gone unnoticed. Boggs has four starts for the Cardinals this year, and although he's only 1-0 the team has won all four of his starts. He was sent back down to Triple-A Memphis back in May when the rotation became full again, but with Todd Wellemeyer on the disabled list, Boggs was called back up to make a crucial division start. Boggs is 3-0 in his last three starts at Class AAA Memphis. In 21 innings, he's allowed one run on 15 hits, with eight walks and 19 strikeouts.

Houston counters with Brian Moehler and his 5.26 ERA. Moehler's last start was at home vs. the Mets in which he lasted 4.1 innings, allowing eight hits and five earned runs in an 8-3 loss. Though he's won two of his last three starts, his 7-6 record just reiterates how average he really is. Average pitchers don't beat St. Louis at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals realize the importance of beating division rivals at home, especially when they're chasing the Chicago Cubs for the division lead. This one could get ugly... Cardinals in a rout.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 7-31-09

Kelso 15 units

Rockies -155 v. Reds
Play the Rockies

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 7-31-09

Freddy Wills has just posted a guaranteed pick that you have a subscription to on sportsbetcapping

The pick is:

62.2% RUN 33-10 L53 3Dime plays! Steam Chalk Play $8!

[center]Match Up Starts (7:10 pm et)
3-DIME PLAY STEAM CHALK PLAY (62.2% RUN ON 3-DIME PLAYS 33-20 L53!)

The Bottom Line:
Take Rockies -155 3-DIME Steam Chalk Play
Rockies ran into a hot Mets team that got solid pitching. They were able to break out of their 25 inning scoreless streak and I think they will carry that into Cincinatti where former major leaguer (2006) relief pitcher Justin Lehr will take the mound. The 31 year old has a 3.37ERA with a 13-3 record in AAA and the way the Reds pitching has been of late it really can't hurt. Unfortunately for the Reds they will have to face Aaron Cook who has been briliant on the road this year with a 3.41 ERA, but in his last 5 road starts he has a 1.29 ERA.

Cook has a career ERA of 3.13 against the Reds, but they are struggling pretty bad as of late and I feel confidently that Cook will throw another gem on the road. After all the Reds are hitting just .250 and scoring 3.95 runs per 9 innings at home against RHP. The Reds are 8-21 in their last 29 games as under dog and 1-8 in their last 9 vs. RH starter. Like I said they have struggled big time particularly against RHP.

Rockies are 14-3 in their last 17 vs. RH starter and I do not think they'll need much here off Lehr


Freddy Wills has just posted a guaranteed pick that you have a subscription to on sportsbetcapping

The pick is:

4-Dime POD & **Bonus! (74-31 This Year!) $15 Guaranteed!

MATCH UP STARTS 7:10pm et
4-DIME MLB POD & 2-DIME BONUS
MLB Play of the Days (POD's):
74-31 (70.5%) +119.09 units of profit! (+$119,095)

The Bottom Line:
Take Cubs -126 4-DIME POD (1-5scale)
Harden vs. Volstad here a pair of pitchers moving in opposite directions. Volstad 2-1 with a 4.42ERA in his last three and Harden 2-0 with a .53Whip and .95 ERA. If you know anything about Harden it is that when he gets hot he is one of the best RH pitchers in the game. Right now he is hot and it's because he has found his control. Just 2BB over his last 3 starts. He pitched at home where he has struggled all year against the Marlins and went just 3.2 IP gave up 6H and 4BB and 5ER. By the way the Cubs still won that game despite walking 9 batters that day.

More on Harden here because I absolutely find value on him here today. He does have a 2.03ERA on the road and a 2.23 ERA at night this year. In his last 3 road starts he has a .90ERA over 20IP. I expect a dominant performance here on Friday as he had a 1.76ERA against the Marlins prior to his poor performance in May. The Marlins have not been killing the ball either vs. RHP they have a .255 avg over their last 5 games with a BP ERA of 5.51. I'm pretty sure they are going to need the bullpen against a Cubs offense that is just on fire averaging 8 runs a game over their last 5 games with their own BP of 3.18. Cubs are 4-0 in their last 4 as a road favorite and 14-3 overall the last 17 as a favorite -110 to -150. They are 6-1 in Hardens last 7 starts of Game 1's getting the Cubs off to a nice start.

Marlins Volstad has pitched decently but at home over his last 4 starts he has given up 17 ER in 20.2 now facing arguably one of the hottest hitting teams I'm taking my money and putting it on the Cubs with the better offense and better pitcher here tonight with some good value to boot. Marlins are 1-6 in their last 7 home starts vs. a team with a winning record and they are 4-13 in their last 17 as a home dog.

2-Dime Bonus play Take Cubs -1.5 +135
Again whenever you have a hot pitcher and a hot offense vs. a cold pitcher and a just okay offense right now it's wise to take the run line as a small backup. I like it mainly because the Cubs have won 76% of their road wins by more than 1 run while the Marlins have lost 80% of their home losses by more than 1 run. It is a recipe for success here today.