8-1-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-1-09

Truschel

15 Atlanta Braves

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-1-09

Jack Jones

15* on Texas Rangers +106

You can't really call Rangers' starter, Tommy Hunter a fluke anymore. He now has 6 Major League starts, and a 3-1 record with a 2.00 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Hunter has been exceptional in his last 3 starts, going 2-0 with a 0.95 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. His counterpart, Felix Hernandez, also has good numbers this season, and gets more headlines for striking more batters out, but he was roughed up in his last outing, giving up 7 earned runs on 11 hits in just 5 2/3 innings. Offensively these teams aren't close. The Rangers hit .271 as a team and average 5.4 runs per game in Texas this year, while the Mariners average .256 as a team and score just 3.9 runs per game on the road this season. Texas has been tough at home, earning a 36-20 record so far, while the Mariners are 26-28 on the road and just 2-5 over thier last 7 games.


20* No-Brainer on Mariners/Rangers UNDER 8.5

In all Seattle road games the Under has a record of 34-19. In all Texas home games the Under has a record of 36-17. With two quality starters on the mound, both of those records should improve again tonight. Felix Hernandez throws for the Mariners and the young righty has been great on the road this season, earning a 1.91 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 12 road starts. 8 of those 12 games have stayed under the total. Tommy Hunter, the Rangers' starter, has a 2.00 ERA and 1.17 WHIP on the season and the Under has hit in all 6 of his starts. Rangers Ballpark in Arlington has a reputation of being a hitters' park, but odds makers are apparently over-adjusting the total because the Under continues to be a great play when the Rangers are at home.


15* on New York Mets +135

Take the Mets as a home underdog against the Diamondbacks Saturday. New York starter, Oliver Perez hasn't had a very successful year, but I like the lefty against an Arizona team that is 10-20 this season against left-handed starters and a line up that hits .233 and averages 3.7 runs per game against lefties. Meanwhile, the Mets have won 5 of their last 7 and are hitting .276 as a team while averaging about 5.7 runs per game over that stretch. Arizona is now 13 games under .500 for the season. I'll take the Mets at home at this price


15* on Colorado Rockies -140

I give Rockies the edge over the Reds in Cincinnati, mostly due to their hitting and their opposing pitcher. Colorado is posting 4.9 runs per game, compared to Cincinnati's 4.0 runs per game. Reds' starter, Homer Baily is 2-2 in 7 starts this season, but he brings in a 6.87 ERA and 1.53 WHIP, including a 1-2 record 9.39 ERA, and 1.76 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Rockies starter, Ubaldo Jimenez has a losing record this year, but he has been solid overall. Jimenez has a 3.74 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 12 road starts this season and is 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA in 2 career starts against the Reds (both last year). The Reds are hitting an embarrassing .180 as a team and are putting up just 3.0 runs per game over the past week, and they've lost 10 of their last 11 overall. We'll keeping fading the Reds, who are showing no signs of improvement


15* on Baltimore Orioles +155

The Orioles are big home underdogs against the Red Sox and starter Josh Beckett coming to town, but their starter, David Hernandez gives them a good shot to win this game. Over his last 3 starts, Hernandez has a 1.89 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP. His season ERA is 3.40, including a 3.17 ERA in 2 starts at Baltimore. His most recent start was also against Boston, a game he won by 7 innings while giving up just one earned run. Beckett has been sharp this season, but is most vulnerable on the road, where he is just 5-4 with a 4.34 ERA. Saturday night is a good time for the Orioles to steal one from Boston.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-1-09

IC

4 Unit Play. Take Under 8.5 between Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers (Saturday @ 8:05pm est). After nine straight quailty starts, King Felix got shelled in his last start for one of his worse starts of this season and frankly, his career. Hernandez got hit for 7 runs in less than 6 innings through 11 hits at home as the Mariners lost 4-11 to the Bluejays at home. Just to give you some reference, prior to that start where he gave up 7 runs, Felix had given up 7 total runs in his previous five starts combined (spanning 38 innings). Tommy Hunter continues to pitch extremely well as the Texas air has been good for him. Hunter has defeated the Redsox and Beckett at home as well as the Tigers at home as well and he is cruising with a 3-1 record and a 2 era. I look for Hernandez to bounce-back today as well as Tommy to continue to pitch well at home as the last time he pitched against Seattle, he picked up a no-decision and his team lost 1-3. So, both pitchers should do well today as the Under is 22-4-1 when the Mariners are favorites by this margin and the Under is 21-5-1 when the Rangers face a team with a losing road record at home.