8-7-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-7-09

Sam Clayton 8/7

[COLOR=#000000! important]Friday, August 7
25 dime - BOS/NYY Under 9

Having last night's epic series opener sail over the posted total with a combined 19 runs might have been the best thing possible for tonight's total play. I'm well aware that the over/under is 5-5 this year between Boston and New York, however, after 3 of the 4 previous overs, the following game went under. I'm forecasting a low-scoring contest tonight as I truly believe these offenses will be worn out and both will struggle against two ace pitchers in Josh Beckett (10-5, 3.89) and A.J. Burnett (13-4, 3.27). Since May 1, both Burnett and Beckett have allowed more than three earned runs only three times in 16 starts. And while Burnett was shelled against Chicago his last start out for 7 earned runs, he has not dropped two consecutive decisions all year long and he followed up two five-run outings with two shutouts. I shouldn't have to explain how dominant these two pitchers are capable of being, especially against hitters they've faced so many times throughout their respective careers. Since the All-Star break came to an end, both starters have been great as Beckett (2-1, 2.86 second half) and Burnett (2-1, 4.38 second half) continue to lead their respective teams toward postseason contention. It might not be the popular pick given last night's offensive outburst, but I'm confident that tonight's two starters will hold their opposition in check. Play the UNDER as your Friday top play winner and first 25 dime play in August.

15 dime - Cubs

The linemakers made an obvious error tonight as there is no way the Cubs should be this big of an underdog in Denver. Chicago has won 10 of 14 games and they are starting their ace, yet they are +135?! Sorry Vegas, but that's just not right -- especially considering how red-hot Carlos Zambrano has been for the North Siders. Big Z is 5-2 with a 3.17 ERA on the highway this season and he's 2-0 with a 2.49 marker since the All-Star break. It gets even better as Chicago's quintessential "bull" is 3-0 with a 2.93 ERA his last five starts. Ubaldo Jimenez has held his own the past couple seasons in Colorado, but he's honestly just been another average pitcher. Jimenez has struggled immensely against the Cubs throughout his career, he's 0-3 with a 7.27 ERA including a loss back on April 13, when he allowed four runs in 3.2 innings of work. Chicago has a bad taste in their months after an ugly loss against Cincinnati on Wednesday and they are hungry in every sense of the term. They're hungry to avenge a shutout loss and even hungrier to retain a share of first place in the National League Central. With Geovany Soto supposedly returning, the Cubs will start their opening day lineup for only the third time this season. They've had one hell of a season so far and things can only get better with their best guys on the field.[/color]

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-7-09

Seabass:

50* Tor -1.5
50* Ariz
50* TB under

100* Minn over

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-7-09

Freddy Wills

Take Blue Jays -1.5 +105 2.5 Dimes
Jason Berken has been awful with a 8.78 ERA last 3 starts and a 9.53 on the road. O's are 1-11 in his last 12 starts as an under dog and this will be the third time the Blue Jays see him this year and I expect him to get rocked as he is 0-5 in his last 5 on 4 days rest. The Orioles are 7-20 in thier last 27 in Baltimore and they are 17-37 on the road this year with 78.4% of their losses coming by more than 1 run.

Ricky Romero will go for the Blue Jays as the Jays have won by more than 1 run in their home wins 13 times in a row and 75.9% this season at home. Romero went 8 strong innings last time against the O's and keep in mind Baltimore has a .221 avg and 2.75 runs per 9 vs. LHP on the road this year. I'm going with the Jays run line!


Take Under 7.5 runs Rays/Mariners


Friday we go with the Under on the Rays and Mariners. Why? Well we got a nice pitching match up of Felix Hernandez vs. Jeff Niemann. Niemann has pitched very well and is coming into his own as a starter now in my opinion and opening up as an under dog of +142 and now at +121 I think Vegas agrees that Niemann will throw a solid game here against the Mariners who at home this year are only averaging 3.87 runs per 9 innings vs. RHP. Niemann I would say on the other end of the spectrum for RH hurlers as I think he's becoming one of the better ones. The 6 foot 9 Niemann can be extremely intimidating and with a 3.18 ERA in his last 3 starts I'm confident he will improve on his only start vs. the Mariners which was only his third start of the season. He's grown up quite a bit between then and now.

Felix Hernandez will go for Seattle and he has not been the pitcher we've known this year as of late and it's because of his control which I expect to be there tonight against the Rays. Felix against the Rays at home in his career has a 0.96 ERA in 5 career starts. The Rays own a .141 average against Felix Hernandez and as any competitor Felix knows he hasn't pitched well so I'm going to bet that he bounces back here at home against a solid TB team that is riding high here, but should struggle here against Felix.

Both bullpens have been effective over their last 5 starts with the Rays winning the prize at 2.45 ERA, and the Mariners with a 3.21. Other key stats you might want to know are the Rays struggles vs. RH starters on the road as the under is 14-2 in their last 16 vs. RH starter now facing a clear top 5 pitcher in all of baseball here tonight. Rays are also backed up by their own starter where the under is 5-0 in Niemann's last 5 starts overall.

Mariners are under 12-3 in Felix's last 15 starts vs. the AL East and under 4-0 in his last 4 appearances vs. the Rays. All of this combined with the line movement and 87% of the public on the over of 8 runs and the line moving to 7.5 and I even saw it move to 7 at Bodog briefly makes it a solid chance to go under the total enjoy!

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-7-09

KBHoops

5* Kansas City -129 **POD**

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-7-09

MTi Sports

Cubs at Rockies
Pick: Under 9

Both these teams are off losses. Chicago was shut out 4-0 by Cincinnati and the Rockies lost 3-1 to Philadelphia. Neither team has managed much offense and we expect this to continue here. Chicago is 0-8 on the road off a loss in which they managed six or fewer hits and their starter had a WHIP of at least one, staying under by an average of 3.8 runs per game. The average final score in these eight games, which are all from THIS season, is 1.9 runs to 2.5 runs.
The Rockies are 0-7 OU in the first game of a series when they are off a loss, staying under by a staggering 5.0 runs per game. The average OU line in these games has been 9.2 and the average final score has been 3.1 to 1.1 runs.
In has last start, Ubaldo Jimenez went eight innings and threw 111 pitches in a 6-2 win over the Reds. This strongly points to the UNDER, as the Rockies are 0-7 OU with Jimenez when he went more than six innings and threw more than 110 pitches in his last start, staying under by an average of 2.4 rpg.
We look for a low-scoring pitcher’s duel here, in which both teams will play for the lone run rather than the big inning.
MTi’s FORECAST: Chicago 4 COLORADO 2