8-18-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-18-09

Gamehunter

PITTSBURGH +106 (1.5 UNITS)

CUBS -1.5 RUNS (-108) (2 UNITS)

DODGERS -1.5 RUNS (+118) (1.5 UNITS)

TAMPA BAY -1.5 RUNS (-122) (1.75 UNITS)

CLEVELAND EVEN (1.5 UNITS)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-18-09

FERRINGO

2 UNITS
ATLANTA ml

1 unit

ATL- RL
SAN FRAN- RL
YANKEES- RL

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-18-09

4 Unit Play. Take Under 9.5 between Minnesota Twins @ Texas Rangers (Tuesday @ 8:05pm est). Pavano comes off a tough loss to the Twins as he went 7 innings and gave up 5 runs in a 4-5 loss. The Royalls are the last place team in the division and this was not the start Pavano was looking for after he got the first win of the season with his new team. He has to really show up big in Texas and he can certainly do that. After all, this is the same guy that went to Detroit and gave up 0 runs through 7 innings in his last start prior to the start against KC. I suspect he will have a solid bounce-back today. I like Feldman to have a quality start as well as he lost to the Twins last time out which is a bit surpising given how well he has pitched this year. He is 12-4 with a 3.90era and I believe he will make the necessary adjustments this time around against theTwins. The Under is 10-1 in Feldman's last 11 starts at home with a total set at this range and the Under is 24-3-1 in the Rangers last 27 ballgames at home as favorites.

Good luck,

IC

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-18-09

Who Will Cover
Atlanta (-175) at NY METS By Karl Garrett, Featured Handicapper
I don't know what in the world I was thinking backing the Mets as my comp play last night, as this team is so offensively-challenged it is even funny anymore.

That being the case, the G-Man will go UNDER the posted total in Tuesday's Braves-Mets contest.

Atlanta played a make-up game OVER yesterday afternoon, but have held UNDER the posted total in 4 of their last 5 games.

New York meanwhile, has been LOW in 5 of their last 9 games. At home this season, the Mets have played UNDER to a 30-26-2 clip.

Braves starter Derek Lowe has allowed 3 earned runs or less in each of his last 7 starts, and the way the Mets are swinging the bats these days, I would be very surprised if New York reached the 3 run mark tonight.

Mets starter Oliver Perez has been pitching decent ball of late, as his last 16-plus frames of work have seen just 4 earned runs score.

Have to look for the pitching to dominate the hitting this Tuesday night, and for the Braves and the Mets to stay UNDER the posted price.

1? UNDER

Milwaukee at PITTSBURGH (even) By Drew Gordon, Featured Handicapper
Now on a 41-32 roll with the plays I'm giving away! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Milwaukee/Pittsburgh match up...

I'll admit it's tough to back a team that's struggling like the Pirates are right now, but in this particular case, I'm expecting them to build off a nice 9-5 win over the Brew Crew yesterday with another strong effort tonight. Why? Simple, for as much as the Bucs are sputtering, so are the Brewers, and tonight's pitching match up strongly suggests more trouble for Milwaukee. Read on...

Have you guys seen Manny Parra pitch lately? True, he's won his L4 starts, but he's also posted a disgusting 6.48 ERA over that span, getting saved by tremendous run support from this Brewers offense. However, one questions whether that offense will appear again tonight, as they face off with the Bucs Ross Ohlendorf (more on that later). Also, the fact Parra is 3-6 with a 5.51 ERA on the road this season doesn't help inspire much conidence either!

I just mentioned Ross Ohlendorf because if there's one thing the Pirates righty does well, it's pitch at PNC Park, going 4-0 with a stellar 1.93 ERA in his L6 starts there! He also happens to be pitching well overall, going 3-1 with a solid 3.07 ERA over his L5 outings! Point being, despite the Pirates struggles, this pitching match up sets up nicely for them to build off last night's impressive offensive performance (9 runs on 16 hits, incl. 3 dingers), while Ohlendorf gets it done where he's at his best, at home!

Bottom line, with both teams struggling, this one comes down to the pitching match up, and the edge here clearly goes to the Bucs with Ohlendorf at home. Look for them to build a little "mini-momentum" off of last night's effort in this one, as the Brewers offense can't save Parra this time around.

Small play on Pittsburgh behind Ohlendorf over Milwaukee and Parra in this MLB match up.

1? PITTSBURGH

Florida (pick) at HOUSTON By Sports Gambling Hotline, Featured Handicapper
Monday winner on the Angels to make it an 18-8-1 comp play run the last 27 days.

Tuesday night, the Marlins and Astros have at it once again, this time at Minute Maid Park. Just last week, Florida took 3 of 4 from Houston, and all 4 of the games featured plenty of offense.

It will be Ricky Nolasco, and Bud Norris matching pitches for the second time in as many starts, and while Norris "outdueled" Nolasco for the win just 5 short days ago, neither hurler was particularly impressive, as Nolasco allowed a whopping 10 runs in his 3 innings of work, while Norris allowed 4 run in 5 innings, but qualified for the "W".

Florida is on a 9-2 run their last 11, and they are thinking October baseball these days in South Florida. The same cannot be said for the sinking 'Stros who just snapped a 3 game slide, and are only 3-11 their last 14 Tuesday night affairs.

Nolasco is certainly not the same hurler he was when he made his ML splash last season, but we have a feeling that Norris, and his 3-0 season mark is going to take the hit tonight against the streaking Marlins.

Play on Florida.

3? FLORIDA

St. Louis (+155) at LA DODGERS By Jeff Benton, Featured Handicapper
Brutal beat with the Panthers last night in NFL preseason action. Still, I’m on a 26-15 roll with my free selections, and I’ll get back on track Tuesday by taking the red-hot Cardinals plus the big price against the freefalling Dodgers.

After last night’s 3-2 win over L.A., St. Louis has now won five in a row and nine of its last 10, including four straight wins on the road. The Cardinals are also 4-1 against the Dodgers this year, 38-17 in the last 55 meetings and 9-3 in their last 12 games at Dodger Stadium.

Speaking of Los Angeles, its dream season is starting to fade away. It is 14-17 since the All-Star break, losing seven of its last 10 games overall, including four straight at home to playoff contenders (three to Atlanta, one to St. Louis). In fact, since starting the season with 13 consecutive home wins, the Dodgers are a dead-even team in their ballpark – and often as a big favorite.

Now, I’ll grant that Los Angeles has the starting pitching edge in this game (hence this big price), but it’s not THAT great of an advance. Dodgers ace Chad Billingsley was passed over in his last scheduled start because of a hamstring issue (and you know those things can flare up at any moment). And even before he got hurt, he wasn’t pitching that well, posting a 6.14 ERA in his last four starts, including a 10-0 loss at St. Louis. That was his fourth career start against the Redbirds, and L.A. lost all four (with Billingsley failing to get out of the sixth inning in any of those contests).

As for St. Louis rookie starter Mitchell Boggs, the only thing I care about is he’s giving his team an opportunity to win when he pitches. The Cardinals are 5-1 in his six starts this year, the only loss being a one-run setback to the Reds a week ago. Bottom line: To be getting this kind of a underdog value with a team as hot as the Cardinals against a slumping opponent that they flat-out own, well, I’m jumping all over it!

4? ST. LOUIS (based on 1? to 10? scale)

St. Louis (+180) at LOS ANGELES By Chris Jordan, Featured Handicapper
Chad Billingsley is stepping to the hill for the first time in 11 days, but that won’t be enough for the struggling Dodgers against a red-hot Cardinals team.

Last night it was a fine pitching performance by Chris Carpenter, as the Redbirds outlasted Los Angeles 3-2 for their fifth straight win and their ninth in the last 10 games. Tonight it’s going to be the offensive barrage to back rookie hurler Mitchell Boggs.

St. Louis is on winning runs of 4-0 on the road, 8-1 against the National League West, 6-1 against right-handed starters and 5-1 when Boggs is on the rubber

On the flipside, the Dodgers have lost four of five and seven out of 10 overall, including five straight at Chavez Ravine. They’re also on losing slides of 2-6 against the Central Division, 4-11 in the second game of a series and 2-6 versus right-handed starters.

St. Louis has won nine of the last 12 in Los Angeles, and this season the Cards are 4-1 against L.A.

1? CARDINALS

Boston at TORONTO (+140) By Michael Cannon, Featured Handicapper
Take the Blue Jays as the home dog over the Red Sox.

I understand the logic behind this line but with the way Boston has been playing on the road I’d be a fool not to take a chance on Toronto with this kind of a return.

The Red Sox have lost eight of their last nine on the road and have lost every road series since the All-Star break with the exception of a three-game sweep of the pathetic Orioles. Over the last nine road games the vaunted Boston offense has produced just 27 runs and hit .202 as a team.

Toronto will start rookie Ricky Romero. The left-hander is 10-5 with a 3.70 ERA on the year. He’s going to have his work cut out with Josh Beckett starting for Boston. But Beckett hasn’t faced the Blue Jays this year and he was shelled by them last year.

Beckett was 0-2 with a 16.71 ERA in two starts against Toronto last year and is 1-2 with a 6.85 ERA in four career starts at Rogers Centre.

Take the Blue Jays at the nice plus return as they grab the home win.

3? TORONTO

Baltimore at TAMPA BAY (-220) By Dominic Fazzini, Featured Handicapper
The Cardinals won Monday, but failed to cover the run line. Despite that, however, I'm still 7-2 over my last nine complimentary selections! Time to get back to winning today!

Rays starter David Price (5-5, 5.13 ERA) has been wildly inconsistent this season. But there actually has been a pattern to his inconsistency. The left-hander is 0-4 with an 8.07 ERA in seven road starts, and 5-1 with a 2.72 ERA in seven home outings.

Price has made one career start against the Orioles, allowing two runs (one earned) and four hits in 5 1/3 innings at Baltimore on Sept. 22.

Rookie Jason Berken (2-10, 6.63) will take the mound for the Orioles, who are 8-22 since the All-Star break. The right-hander gave up four runs (three earned) and eight hits in five innings Wednesday against Oakland.

Berken has dropped 10 of his last 11 decisions, and Baltimore is 3-12 in his 15 starts. The rookie is 1-4 with an 8.48 ERA in six road starts, and he is 1-2 with an 8.76 ERA in three outings this month.

Tampa Bay is 8-1 in its last nine home games against Baltimore. It should have no problem adding another victory to that total today. Take the Rays on the run line.

3? TAMPA BAY -1 1/2 RUNS

L.A. Angels at CLEVELAND (-105) By Bobby Maxwell, Featured Handicapper
Delivered the FREE winner Monday with the Rangers getting it done at home against the Twins. Today I'm backing the Indians as they host the Angels in Cleveland.

I know the Angels have been the hottest team in baseball the last few months, but in their history they haven't had much luck in Cleveland. I'm going with the Tribe in this one as the Angels are throwing a rookie in just his second career big-league start.

Trevor Bell made his debut on Wednesday when he allowed four runs on nine hits in 5.1 innings at home against the Rays and his offense did the majority of the work in the 10-5 win.

On the other side, the Indians have Fausto Carmona (2-7, 6.37) on the mound having not looked too bad lately. Since he came off the DL on July 31, Carmona has made three starts and given up a combined five runs in 17 innings. Wednesday he allowed two runs in six innings against the Rangers but it wasn't his fault for the loss as the offense got nothing in the 5-0 final.

For his career against the Angels, Carmona has made two starts and allowed two earned runs in 13 innings.

When this series is in Cleveland, the Indians are 6-2 in the last eight meetings. They are also on streaks of 7-2 in series openers, 4-1 after an off-day and 4-0 when Carmona starts a series.

I'm looking for the Cleveland offense to be able to plate some runs off the rookie while Carmona delivers a solid effort. Play the Indians.

3? CLEVELAND

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-18-09

Greg Shake AAA Sports (COMP)
MLB: Florida Marlins at Houston Astros - Marlins (Nolasco/Norris) -107
Game Date: 8/18/2009
Note: To say that the Florida Marlins are a Hot Hitting Team is an understatement. With Wednesday's game in the books, they have had Double Digit Hits in 13 straight games. How rare is that? Well, it had not been done since the 1999 RedSox did it and prior to that, it was done in 1954. It is safe to say that the Marlins have their hitting shoes On. They certainly did when they faced Norris the last time and he has accounted for one of those games during this stretch. Unfortunately for Florida, they lost that game though, and they did with the Guy that will be pitching for them tonight. It was no doubt Nolasco's worst start of his career, allowing an amazing 10 runs over 3 and 1/3 innings of work. However, this guy is a good one, and he is apt to bounce back in a big way. He will have extreme rest for this one with limited work in that game, he will also be on 5 Days of Rest, and he will be remembering a lot of things. Like the fact that prior to the last time he faced the Astros, he was 2-0 with a 1.65 ERA in his previous four starts verses them. As as added note, Nolasco is 12-2 the last 14 times he has had 5 Rested Days. The jury is still out on Norris. He has thrown effectively at times but he has been a bit iffy with finding the plate, allowing 11 walks in 23 innings. I don't think he wants to let the Marlins get free passes tonight considering they are batting over .360 verses righties during this amazing 13 game run. The Astros have to have 2 things for them to be successful. They have to have good starting pitching, they have to have good Bullpen Work. They are getting neither right now and they are not winning a lot of games because of it. While Florida is in a Dogfight for a playoff birth, the Astros are hanging on to a dream. I think it is going to be a bad dream tonight and perhaps a Texas Chainsaw Vasectomy. Florida has beaten Houston 6 of the last 7 and I think we have a good probability that we will see them do it again.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-18-09

Alex Smart

5* Florida Marlins (-110)

Ricky Nolasco in his last trip to the hill against this same Houston team , came away with disappointing results and will be primed for a rebound performance after his worst outing ever on Aug. 12 at Land Shark Stadium, Nalasco in that game surrendered a career-high 10 runs, in just 3 1/3 innings . He is still 2-1 in his career against the Astros. Ricky Nolasco has allowed two earned runs or fewer in 10 of his 13 starts, and even after that dismal start owns a 3.56 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in that span. Add to that 89 strikeouts in 83 2/3 innings and he's still been one of the top pitchers in baseball over the last two and a half months. He is backed with a big time bullpen that has been lights out on the road this season, registering a 2.58 ERA. Meanwhile, Bud Norris, his Astros pitching opponent despite of being lucky enough to be 3-0 in first 3 starts in his MLB career is the type of pitcher that could easily find himself on the short end of the final score this evening. That is evident by a 4-9 record in 19 starts at Round Rock this year, allowing 104 hits, 53 walks and striking out 112 batters in 120 innings.

Final notes & Key Trends: Nolasco is 8-1 in road games vs. poor power teams like Houston averaging 0.9 or less HR's per game over the last couple of seasons. The Astros are 2-14 as a dog after a win in which they drew 5+ walks and it is the first game of a series, and all mlb teams under the same parameters are 15-50...

Play on the Florida Marlins - 5*

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-18-09

Doc's Sports

3 Unit Play. #962 Take Over 9 in Florida @ Houston (8:05 pm MLB.tv)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-18-09

Steve Merril


Detroit Tigers
+1.5 (-150) / 5 units

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-18-09

Savannah Sports

Professional Plays
Eric Degarde
MLB Baseball
3 (***) San Francisco -1.5 (-140)
2 (**) Pittsburgh +103

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-18-09

GoodFella | MLB RunLine Tue, 08/18/09 - 10:05 PM ';
dime bet 979 NYY -1.5 (-130) BetUS vs 980 OAK
Analysis:

-Sabathia must start or no action-


GoodFella | MLB Money Line Tue, 08/18/09 - 8:05 PM ';
dime bet ml961 FLA (-110) Bodog vs 962 HOU
Analysis:

-Nolasco must start for the Marlins-




GoodFella | MLB RunLine Tue, 08/18/09 - 7:05 PM ';
dime bet 972 TAM -1.5 (-130) SportBet vs 971 BAL
Analysis:

-Price must start for the Rays or no action-

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-18-09

spartan | MLB RunLine Tue, 08/18/09 - 7:05 PM

triple-dime bet 972 TAM -1.5 (-105) Bookmaker.com vs 971 BAL

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-18-09

stan sharp

2 dime florida

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-18-09

TONY BRUNO WINS

20x KANSAS CITY

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-18-09

JACK JONES

15* Houston Astros -105

I'm taking a small play on the Astros over the Marlins today with Florida starter Ricky Nolasco squaring off against Bud Norris for Houston. Nolasco can be a very good pitcher, but he's been terribly inconsistent this year, resulting in a 8-8 record and a 5.37 ERA. With his last start, which also happened to be against Houston, he gave up 10 earned runs in 3 1/3 innings pitched. Meanwhile, Bud Norris has looked sharp for the Astros, earning a win in each of his first 3 MLB starts this season and posting an ERA of 3.00 in those starts.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-18-09

TONY BRUNO WINS

20x KANSAS CITY