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I think Arizona's Max Scherzer is a highly promising pitcher. He was 5-2 with a 3.52 ERA in his previous 12 starts until taking a 9-4 loss to the Braves in his last outing, although he surrendered just three earned runs.
But the major part of my handicap in this matchup is a go-against on the Astros' Brian Moehler. He is one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball.
Moehler especially can't pitch at hitter-friendly Minute Maid Park. He's 2-6 with a 6.44 ERA at home this season.
Moehler's ERA in his last three overall starts is 7.31. He has a 5.40 ERA in five career starts versus Arizona. The Astros are 0-5 in Moehler's last five starts.
You could make the argument that the wrong team is favored in this match up. First off, the Rangers' Tommy Hunter has been exceptional on the road this season, going 2-0 with a 0.87 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in 3 starts as the visiting pitcher. Hunter has 10 total starts on the season for Texas, and the Rangers are 7-3 in those starts with Hunter earning a 2.64 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in those appearances. Tampa's Matt Garza has good numbers on the season as well, but he is just 7-8 on the season, including failing to receive a decision in any of his last 3 starts, posting a 4.11 ERA and 1.63 WHIP over that stretch.
15* on Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 -140
Take the Phillies on the run line at the Mets tonight with with J.A. Happ on the mound for Philadelphia. Happ has been incredible since joining the Phillies, going 9-2 with a 2.66 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, including a 4-1 record with a 1.92 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 9 road starts. He'll be opposed tonight by the Mets' Tim Redding, who is just 1-3 in 9 starts this season with a 6.99 ERA and 1.57 WHIP (the Mets are 3-6 in his 9 starts). The Phillies have played extremely well on the road this season at 37-21 and have won 5 of their last 7, while the Mets have dropped 4 of their 7. New York stole game one of this series from Philly last night, but look for the Phillies to bounce back big over the Mets Saturday.
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