8-27-09

[Mr. IWS]

Fellas. You could really help out our forum by voting for us by going to this page and clicking the link below

http://www.investwithsports.com/toplist

then click on the little button that says, sports100.

There are no pop-ups or anything like that, and it helps us get more traffic to the forum.

Thanks a lot.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-27-09

Sam Clayton

20 DIME - ROCKIES

Big bounce back spot for Colorado as they look to win the series rubber match and draw even closer to the Dodgers in the NL West standings. Los Angeles has seen their once impressive division lead shrink to three games and they've fallen into a slight rut as of late. Meanwhile, the Rockies haven't skipped a beat and they keep on winning, having notched a 'W' in 52 of their last 75 games. Yes, the offense looked dead last night against Randy Wolf, but it's no secret that this group doesn't stay down for long. Thanks to excessive research, I found out that since Jim Tracy took over, Colorado is 5-2 in games following a 0 or 1 run output, and in the five wins, they've averaged 6 runs per game. That sounds like a mouthful and I usually hate statistics like that, but the proof is in the pudding. You might be able to contain Colorado's bats one game, but it rarely happens twice in a row.

The biggest reason for my selection today though is the pitching matchup. Los Angeles, desperate for a fifth starter trots out Vicente Padilla, who hasn't pitched since August 5 with the Rangers before being cut. Padilla is an average pitcher, sure, but he was trimmed from the roster because he wasn't getting the job and he's a nutcase (irrelevant but true). Since the All-Star break, the right-hander is 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA and he's allowed 5 runs or more in three of his last five starts. More importantly though, he has been absolutely lit up against left-handed hitters (.319 BA vs LHB) and luckily for Colorado, their lefties have been tearing it up in the month of August. You have to believe that Jim Tracy will adjust and play Carlos Gonzalez (.381 BA in Aug.) and/or Seth Smith (.318) to go along with regulars Todd Helton (.310) and Brad Hawpe (.269). Even new centerfielder Eric Young is hitting .375 with three hits in eight at-bats. Parlay those numbers with the band box that is Coors Field and you've got a great chance that Padilla could be chased very quickly.

Jorge de la Rosa gets the call for Colorado and he's been on an absolute tear the past two months. The southpaw is 6-1 with a 3.80 ERA in the second half and he's 3-0 with a 3.26 ERA his last three outings. Jorge has allowed three runs or less in 9 of his last 11 starts and I like the way he matches up against the Dodgers lineup. Being he's a lefty, Furcal and Hudson flip around to the right side (where they are less threatening). His blazing fastball and sharp breaking ball have been neutralizing left-handed hitters all year, which doesn't bode well for Ethier and Loney. And most importantly, the Dodgers' No. 3 and 4 hitters -- Either and Ramirez -- are hitting .195 and .244 respectively against southpaws this season. Whew. I hope your brain hasn't exploded with all these intangibles.

Colorado is 8-2 their last 10 and they've won 9 of 13 at Coors Field. I'm very confident that they use home field advantage to the fullest and knock off the Dodgers, losers of 6 of their last 11 games. I'm rolling with the hotter bats and the much hotter pitcher, not to mention fading the swine flu (chuckle). Play the Rockies.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-27-09

charlie


nfl x. miami @ tampa bay under 37, rams @ bengals under 34 & jacksonville+7'. (500* 3 team rd robin).
mlb. dodgers+135 (30*)
mlb. boston-125 (20*)
mlb. kansas city+140 (20*)
mlb. giants-140 (10*)
mlb. baltimore-120 (10*) free play

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-27-09

4 Unit Play. #918. Take the New York Yankees -1.5 Runs (-111) over the Texas Rangers (Thursday @ 1:05pm).

Good luck,

IC

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-27-09

Dave Malinsky

4* #918 NY YANKEES Run Line over TEXAS

Yankee Stadium has been a house of horrors for the Texas pitching
staff so far this week ? the steady Kevin Millwood got racked for
five runs in 5.2 innings, the excellent current form of Derek Holland
got turned around into six runs in six innings last night, and in the
only appearance from first-rate closer Frank Francisco he was tagged
for two runs in a single inning. Overall the Yankees have scored 18
runs, including drawing 11 walks and hitting four home runs. So what
happens now that the Rangers have to reach back to the bottom of
their rotation? We see a long afternoon coming, and with the markets
actually helping us with this one in the early trading, New York will
be available in a pick?em range with the Run Line as the method.

Some of that move is understandable, based on the 4-2/3.95 that
Dustin Nippert shows since being called up in July, but that is not
who he is. In 141.2 innings prior to this season he had worked to an
uninspiring 6.42 count, and it just becomes a matter of time before
the current numbers move towards that level ? a guy that lacks good
control, and gets too many of his outs in the air, is going to find
it difficult to deal with this class of offense on the road. And
having averaged just 5.1 innings per start, it will bring the
inconsistent Texas middle relief corps firmly into play.

We could also say that some of the early market trading was against
A. J. Burnett, since the last time the public saw him he was being
belted around by the Red Sox. But there was no cause for alarm there.
Burnett has been crushed on both outings at Fenway this season, but
following the first he responded to lead the Bronx Bombers to a win
over the Angels, and he has bounced back well all season. Burnett has
had five starts in which he has allowed five runs or more, and after
the first four followed up with a 1.98 over 27.1 frames, with the
Yankees winning all four of those games, by a collective 28 runs.
Note that he is one pitcher that is not bothered at all by the short
porch in right field, since he throws hard enough to prevent the ball
from being pulled, and in working to a 3.39 over 12 starts from this
mound he has led the Yankees to a 10-2 mark in those games,
out-scoring the opposition by 36 runs. The latter stages are also in
good hands, with Mariano Rivera completely rested and no fatigue
rating of significance anywhere.



3* #926 L.A. ANGELS over OAKLAND

A game that we project into the -240 to -260 range has been set far
short of that plateau here, a case of some stale numbers impacting
market perceptions. It means that we have plenty of room to step in
as we get behind the Ervin Santana resurgence, although at this range
the investment rate must be altered because of the outlay.

The gap between the Angels and A?s is every bit what the 20.5 games
in the standings shows, with the Angel offense holding a commanding
advantage of 152 runs, a major defensive edge (in a development we
would have thought impossible early in the season, Oakland is now
threatening Washington for the bottom of our charts), and Santana
brings much more to the table than Trevor Cahill. But with Santana?s
full-season ERA sitting at 6.13, and Cahill at 4.86, the last point
is not in evidence, and that sets this up well for us.

Santana was brought back into the rotation before he was fully
healthy, and as such had some truly ugly early moments. But we see
him being back to full strength now, and the current 3-0/2.57 over
this last three starts carries more weight with us than anything else
he has done this season. The last time he worked from this mound was
a sparkling complete-game shutout vs. Tampa Bay, and he followed that
up with back-to-back road wins to build his confidence even higher.
Now he faces an opponent that he has absolutely dominated, with a
10-1 lifetime mark that includes a 3-0/1.29 the past two seasons, and
while the faces are changing a lot in the Oakland clubhouse these
days, those that are still around to not bring much for this matchup
? holdovers Bobby Crosby, Mark Ellis, Adam Kennedy, Kurt Suzuki and
Jack Cust are a 13-96 lifetime against him (.135), with 22 strikeouts
and the stunning total of just one rbi.

Meanwhile this will be the third go-round for Cahill against the
Angels, and while his 4.66 ERA for the first two is not disastrous,
take a closer look ? he allowed 20 base-runners in 9.2 innings but
only got tagged with five earned runs, and he sported an unholy ratio
of nine walks vs. only one strikeout in those games. He does not
match up well at all here, and with the team behind him just getting
swept in Seattle, despite the fact that Ichiro did not play, and the
Mariners sent Ian Snell, Ryan Rowland-Smith and Lucas French to the
mound, it tells us that the visitors bring an awfully weak package to
this table.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-27-09

Destroy The Book Sports

10*fla/nym over 9
10*philly-183
7*la/col over 10
7*cleveland+101
5*laa RL
5*hou/stl under 7.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-27-09

Ferringo

1-Unit Play. Take #906 St. Louis (-1.5, -125) over Houston (2 p.m., Thursday, Aug. 27)


1-Unit Play. Take #911 Philadelphia (-1.5, -120) over Pittsburgh (7 p.m., Thursday, Aug. 27)


1-Unit Play. Take #914 Atlanta (-1.5, -115) over San Diego (7 p.m., Thursday, Aug. 27)


1-Unit Play. Take #926 L.A. Angels (-1.5, -105) over Oakland (10 p.m., Thursday, Aug. 27)


1-Unit Play. Take #902 Florida (-1.5, -115) over N.Y. Mets (1 p.m., Thursday, Aug. 27)


Today's Totals
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 10.0 Chicago White Sox at Boston (7 p.m., Thursday, Aug. 27)

1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 7.5 Houston at St. Louis (2 p.m., Thursday, Aug. 27)

1-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.5 Texas at N.Y. Yankees (1 p.m., Thursday, Aug. 27)

1-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 10.0 L.A. Dodgers at Colorado (3 p.m., Thursday, Aug. 27)

0.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.0 N.Y. Mets at Florida (1 p.m., Thursday, Aug. 27)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-27-09

Super Sports Group (SSG)


Rangers at Yankees 1:05 p.m. (ET)

7* NYY -1.5 runline (-120)


Dodgers at Rockies 3:10 p.m. (ET)

8* Dodgers moneyline +130 BEST BET


2-TEAM PARLAY, $200 to pay $620

Pirates +1.5 runline +105
Indians moneyline +100

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-27-09

Tony Salinas Baseball
Thursday, August 27, 2009

24*
Jaguars (+7) over Eagles
7:00 PM -- Lincoln Financial Field
Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from the Northeast at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 80.

25*
Redsox {J.Tazawa} (-120) over Whitesox {J.Danks}
7:10 PM -- Fenway Park
Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from left to right field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 70.

24*
Mariners {D.Fister} (-150) over Royals {K.Davies}
10:10 PM -- SAFECO Field
Mostly clear. Winds blowing from left to right field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 80.

24*
La Angels {E.Santana} (-185) over Athletics {T.Cahill}
10:25 PM -- Angel Stadium of Anaheim
Mostly clear. Winds blowing out to right field at 5-15 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 85.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-27-09

Wunderdog

MLB | Aug 27

Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee Brewers -1½+125

The Cincinnati Reds hung in the NL Central race for awhile, but those hopes have all disappeared as this team has sunk hard and fast, thanks to a bad run of 12-28 in their last 40 games. The Reds are off of a win which has been the worst possible spot for them this season. They have turned in a .358 winning percentage on the season off a win, and that mark is now 7-21 after their last 28 wins. Against the run line they are 21-32 this season after a win. Bush has beaten the teams he is supposed to beat as the Brewers are 13-3 in his last 16 starts as a favorite. When placed as a run line favorite with odds at +135 to -190, Bush is 9-0 the past three seasons. He has pitched well enough at home for the Brewers to take command, where they are 35-16 in his last 51 home starts. I'll side with Milwaukee on the run line in this one.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-27-09

Doc's Sports

3-Unit Play Take #924 Seattle Mariners -145 over Kansas City Royals (10:10p.m.)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-27-09

Bob Valentino
THURSDAY'S 25 DIME NFL PRESEASON WINNER ... 25 DIME -- Dolphins-Bucs OVER the total

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-27-09

Seabass

10* Houston Astros
50* Cleveland Indians
30* Mets/Marlins Under 9
50* LA Dodgers

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-27-09

Mike Neri

****DOUBLE PLAY*****
St Louis w/Carpenter -1.5 -120 2:15 EST
Risk 2 Units to make 1.66 Units

*****SINGLE PLAY*****
Seattle w/Fister -155 10:10 EST
Risk 1 Unit to make .64 Units

*****SINGLE PLAY*****
LA Angels w/Santana -192 10:25 EST
Risk 1 Unit to make .52 Units

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-27-09

Premium picks from Jimmy Boyd

NFL Football Premium Picks
NFL | Aug 27 '09 (7:00p)
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Philadelphia Eagles Jacksonville Jaguars
+7½-109 at 5dimes
4* Major Thursday Night NFLX *BEST BET* on Jags +7.5
Both of these teams are 0-2 in the preseason, but a win tonight will mean much more for a Jaguars team that is coming off a very disappointing year. That's why these 7.5 points are looking mighty tasty. Rarely do you see spreads this large in the preseason and it appears the odds makers are trying to trap the public here, playing on Michael Vick's debut. But I just can't see Vick putting together a game-changing performance yet. Tonight, will basically be about getting his feet wet. The Eagles have some key guys banged up so I don't expect them to push it as they know they have a whole lot more to play for this season. The Jags are a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in the preseason in their last 4 games following two or more consecutive defeats. The Jags are also a terrific 12-2 ATS in road games in the last two weeks of the preseason since 1993, with an average margin of victory of 6.8. Take the Jags.


MLB Baseball Premium Picks
MLB | Aug 27 '09 (10:10p)
Kansas City Royals vs Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners
-143 at 5dimes
3* Thursday Night MLB Crunch Time Bailout on Mariners -143
I'll back the Mariners at home against the ice cold Royals tonight. The Royals are just 5-16 in their last 21 meetings in Seattle and they face a Seattle club that is 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home favorite and 23-9 in their last 32 games as a favorite period. The Royals are just 3-14 in their last 17 vs. the American League West, 3-9 in Davies' last 12 starts, and 3-11 in his last 14 starts following a team loss in their previous game. The Royals have dropped their last 4 series openers and it's going to be tough for them to steal game 1 here after making the long trip out west against a good Mariners home club. Take the M's.