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Seattle –1 +1.11 over OAKLAND PINNACLE
The A’s finally beat the Mariners last night but that doesn’t change the fact that they’ve still lost 11 of 15 games to the M’s and not only are they at a disadvantage on the mound, but they have a big psychological disadvantage as well. The M’s own them and with Doug Fister facing Gio Gonzalez they have a great chance to take three out of four games. Fister is a rather unknown at this point, as he started the season in the minors and got the call in early August. He has just five starts and he’s looking better with each passing one. Fister has pitched into the seventh inning in three of his last four and is coming off a 7.1, five-hit and one run gem against the tough Angels. He also one-hit the White Sox in six innings and went seven full against the Yanks and allowed eight hits and three runs. This kid is a keeper and personally, I’ve watched his last four starts and just love the way he pitches. He keeps the ball low, he throws strikes and he has outstanding movement and poise. The league is hitting just .213 off him and this is his easiest assignment to date. The A’s are fifth worst in the majors in team batting average and this is the first time they’ll see Fister. Gonzalez, meanwhile, has pitched 10 innings this season vs Seattle and has a BAA of .308 against them to go along with a 6.30 ERA. At home, in seven starts covering 34 frames, Gonzalez is 1-4 with an 8.21 ERA. Of the 46 hits he’s allowed in those 34 innings (.326 BAA), 10 have gone yard. The M’s are a –1.14 favorite, and you can play that if you like because it’s a definite underlay but I’ll lay the run with a take-back because the M’s should roll again. Play: Seattle –1 +1.11 (Risking 2 units).
NY Yankees –1½ +1.10 over TORONTO PINNACLE
First off, the Yanks are 14-5 against southpaws on the road and overall they’re 31-14 against left-handed starters and it’s not like they’re facing a tough one here. Brian Tallet is a career reliever that was in the rotation for a bunch of starts but was subsequently returned to the pen before being inserted again due to an injury. He has a very average home ERA of 4.82, and overall his ERA is 5.17. Secondly, the Blue Jays have been a dumpster-fire since about mid May and losing has been very contagious. The Jays, as a team are batting .215 over the last 10 days and that’s the worst mark in the AL and the second worst in the majors over that span. Let’s also not forget that they spent four days in Texas recently, scored 18 runs in one game, yet they’re still hitting .215 over that 10-game stretch. Sergio Metre is slowly but surely coming around. He has an outstanding groundball to fly ball ratio and that’s a great indication that he’s on the verge of something good. Of the last 57 batters Mitre has faced, 33 of them have grounded out and just 15 have popped out. He threw a six-inning, one-hit gem against the South Side in his last start and these Jays have made a habit of making pitchers look fantastic. Anyway, the Yanks offense should have a huge day against this still Tallet and the Jays offense will likely pull another no-show. Play: NY Yankees –1½ +1.10 (Risking 2 units).
These two schools are only 85 miles apart, so this isn't really a road game for Ole Miss. There will be plenty of Mississippi fans in Memphis. Mississippi is returning 16 starters from last years team and many have them predicted to go undefeated this year. Last years dominant Memphis squad had 23 seniors and actually return only 12 starters this year. The spread in this game opened at 17. The spread over the last four years combined was only 12 and never went higher than 4. Why is it so high this year? Because Ole Miss is that good, and they can't wait to show you! Ole Miss is 6-1 (+8.6ppg) since October 2007 versus the league. They are also 5-0 (+21.1ppg) since November 2008. Ole Miss is 12-1 in season openers with the last 5 being against Memphis. Look for this trend to go to 6-0 against Memphis on Sunday.
If there's anything I've learned as a White Sox fan, it's that Ozzie Guillen loves him some reserves on Sundays and we'll likely see a good amount today for the South Siders. Parlay that with my theory that most afternoon matinees are slow paced, low scoring affairs and the fact that both starting pitchers have ace-like repertoires, this is the right play in this duel of the Sox.
Both Jon Lester (11-7, 3.58) and John Danks (12-8, 3.82) are big game pitchers and they've been absolutely cruising since August. Lester is 2-0 with a 2.53 ERA his last six starts while Danks has hunkered down too, compiling a 4-1 mark and 3.63 ERA the last seven times he's taken the hill. I'm really confident that these two "aces" will tame their opposing hitters and their deceptiveness will be in full effect. And sure it's not a popular pick to fade the Boston offense, but from what we saw back on August 29, when Danks threw six innings of two-run ball at Fenway, I like my chances.
It's no secret that Chicago is struggling to score runs as the under has cashed 5 of their last 6 games, and I really don't think they get to Lester for more than three runs. And if I know Ozzie (which I think I do) we'll likely see backup catcher Ramon Castro spell A.J. Pierzynski, meaning the Sox might be without their hottest hitter since the All-Star break. But don't sleep on Danks either because this kid has stepped up in huge spots all year long beating the Rays, Twins, Cubs (twice), Angels, Yankees and Red Sox. These pitchers are both capable of going the distance and they possess the swing-and-a-miss type stuff that hitters hate to face.
3 Units
Colorado State (+10½) over Colorado
7:00 PM -- Folsom Field
Colorado State (+10 ½) over COLORADO Prediction: Colorado by 3-4 Starting Time: 7:00 TV: FSN Comments: Both teams begin the season with far more questions than answers but the figures say they are almost equal in levels of talent, depth and experience—and that means we must take the underdog. The +10 ½ is just too much to pass up.
Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from the South at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 75.
CFB 4-1 ATS
Notes: Coming off a big day on Sat with our 5* Blowout GOW winner on Texas A&M 41 to 6 over N. Mexico and a 4* Winner on Auburn although we did go done with a 4* on Georgia for a 2-1 ATS day on Saturday. Winners on Thurs with Boise and Fri with Tulsa have pushed our record to 4-1 ATS so far this CFB Season.
Date/Time: Sunday September 6 / 7:00PM EST
Sport/Type: CFB / Side
Game: Colorado State Rams @ Colorado Buffalos
Ratings: Selections Rated 1* to 6* with 6* as highest rated play
Graded Selection: 3* Colorado Buffalos -11
Analysis:
The annual Rocky Mountain meeting between the Colorado State Rams and the Colorado Buffalos takes place in Boulder this year. This season-opening in-state rivalry has been played in Denver nine of the last eleven years but the Buffs have a distinct advantage getting the Rams on their home turf to begin the 2009 campaign.
The Rams open the season off a bowl win over a very weak Fresno State team 40 to 35 in the New Mexico Bowl. This after winning their final two regular season games but they were terrible in the middle portion of the year losing five of seven at one point.
Colorado State’s defense was their Achilles heel last season, allowing 6.2 yards per play. We do not expect much improvement this season as they only return five starters from that team. This was a defensive unit that allowed 190 yards rushing per game on 5.3 yards per carry and tonight they face one of the most improved rushing attacks in the country.
On offense the Rams must replace QB Billy Farris and leading rusher Gartrell Johnson who had 1476 yards on the ground with an average of 5.3 yards per carry. New starting QB Grant Stucker will be throwing to returning starters Rashaun Greer and Dion Morton, who combined for 1973 yards at 17.3 yards per catch.
The strength of the Buffalos defense is against the pass and we expect them to be able to control the pace and tempo when the Rams have the ball. They will be helped by the fact that Colorado should be able to control the clock on offense and sustain drives with a very solid rushing attack.
Colorado returns 9 on the offensive side of the ball this season although it appears we have a QB controversy between incumbent QB Cody Hawkins (the coach’s son) and Tyler Hansen. Head Coach Dan Hawkins is not naming a starter until game time, but the most recent word out of Buffs camp is the edge is with Hawkins, who threw for 1,892 yards, 17 TDs and 10 INTs last season.
Colorado State went just 2-5 ATS on the road in 2008 and 1-4 ATS when installed as a road underdog. The Buffs are 14-7 ATS as a double-digit favorite their last 21 qualifying contests. Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index has Colorado by 13.8 points over the CSU Rams and our PPR (Player Performance Ratings) Index favors the host here as the Buffalos open the 2009 campaign with a win by 14.1 points over the visiting Colorado State Rams on Sunday night in Boulder.
Graded Selection: 3* Colorado Buffalos 29 Colorado State Rams 14
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