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Bottom Line Sports Non-Guaranteed Selections
Date: Sunday, September 27, 2009
$25.00 Non-Guaranteed: At Bottom Line Sports only one thing matters and that is if we make you money! We will win and we will win big! Regardless if it is a big favorite, a big dog or somewhere in-between we will win for you! Today in the NFL we a dog that will win the game STRAIGHT UP! Get this winner now for just $25! Remember, INFO over back fitted trends ALWAYS WINS! 9/25/2009
NFL STRAIGHT UP DOG WINNER
401 Tennessee +3 1:00 EST
25* Play Kansas City (-175) over Minnesota (MLB PLAY)
Zack Greinke has won 16 of the last 20 home games when the total posted is between 8 and 8.5 runs and he is also 2-0 over the last 3 starts with an ERA of 0.50.
No, this has nothing to do with the “due to win” angle. Yes, the Lions have dropped 19 in a row but they’re not far off from that illusive win and this could certainly be the week they get it. They’ll be no Drew Brees to contend with and there will be no Adrian Peterson either. After facing the Saints passing game and the Vikes running game, this one should appear in slow motion for the Lions. Instead the Leo’s will have to contend with a Skins offense that scored nine points at home last week against the woeful Rams. Washington has averaged a measly 12 points a game over its last 10 outings and what we have here is a case of “Dead Offensive Coordinator Walking”. Remember, the Lions jumped ahead of the Vikes last week 10-0 before two turnovers turned the game around. However, the Lions have shown signs of life and despite four picks already, Matthew Stafford looks like he belongs. The Lions offense is dangerous and getting better. This team is starved for a win and hopefully they can smell it here. The Skins are ripe as hell and after watching the Cowboys chew up the Giants last Monday, the Skins 23-17 loss to the G-Men in week one suddenly looks a lot worse. For a team that averages 12 points a match over a significant stretch of games, laying 6½ on the road cannot be recommended. Lions outright. Play: Detroit +6½ (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).
CINCINNATI +1.70 over Pittsburgh Sports Interaction
The Bengals lost a heartbreaker in the season’s first game that could have lingered the whole year. Instead they responded as a 9-point dog at Lambeau and beat the Pack outright. That could have been a coming of age moment for this talented team, as they had lost 13 of its last 16 road games prior to last week. The Bengals defense looks solid, Carson Palmer looks terrific, the running game is working and when you put that all together it amounts to a squad that could make some serious noise. Again, last week just might have been a defining moment for them. Meanwhile, the Steelers are suddenly very beatable with an offensive line that is in complete shambles. The D-line is not getting any pressure at all on opposing QB’s and they virtually have no running game. Of course, the Steelers can never be counted out but when you break it down, a team that can’t run, can’t defend, can’t protect its QB and can’t put pressure on the oppositions, it sure as hell doesn’t warrant laying road points. The Bengals have to be sick of being the Steelers whipping boys and this week they seriously have a great chance to turn those tables around. Keep the points. Play: Cincinnati +1.70 (Risking 2 units).
NEW ENGLAND –4 over Atlanta Sports Interaction
In the world of the NFL there is always a right time to “step in” and that almost always occurs when everyone else is stepping out. Enter the Patriots, a team that should be 0-2 after playing the Bills and Jets, not exactly the cream of the crop. Lots of folks ripped their tickets on the Pats the past two weeks and those same frustrated folks want no part of this team. On the other side of that coin are the folks that have cashed consecutive weeks when holding a ticket on the Falcons. This team is 2-0 and suddenly the Falcons are the team that is attracting money and that works just beautifully. In other words, those that now want to wager on the Falcons missed out and those that hammered the Pats did it too early. This is precisely the right time to play the Pats and/or go against the Falcons. What is almost a guarantee is Bill Belichick has spent 24-hours a day prepping for this one. Nobody hates to lose more than him and he’ll have his team as ready as they’ve ever been. So, for all you stat geeks, forget about it all. The Patriots will be ready and raring to go and after two very sub-par performances, you can expect a serious 60-minutes of football from the preseason favorites to win it all. Play: New England –4 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
Tennessee +1.20 over NY JETS PINNACLE
This situation almost mirrors the Falcons/Pats game in that the Jets are suddenly attracting a lot of smart money. They’re now 2-0 and have looked near flawless against Houston and New England. The Titans are 0-2 after losing to Pitt and the same Texans team the Jets walloped. Yet, the oddsmakers have made the Jets a very small favorite in their own barn and that alone should raise flags. Furthermore, Rex Ryan, the Jets new rookie coach is getting way too cocky and shooting off way too much smack. That seldom works out well and you can double that against the cool and composed Jeff Fisher. Ryan was talking trash all week before the Patriots game and the Jets responded. When the 49ers accused the Jets with tampering last week, Rex Ryan responded by saying, “I wish we were playing them”. For a rookie coach, you just can’t keep shooting your pie-hole off and get away with it, not in this league. The Titans are an extremely talented team that will very likely respond big time. The Jets will face a team for the first time that can run the ball down the opposition’s throat. Throw in the letdown factor after huge win over the Pats and what we have here is another strong case of stepping in at the right time against a team that is grabbing all the headlines. Play: Tennessee +1.20 (Risking 2 units).
ARIZONA –2½ over Indianapolis PINNACLE
If the Dolphins and its pedestrian offense shredded the Colts, one can only imagine what the Cardinals potent attack will do. To make matter worse for the Colts, they’ll travel across the country on a short week and that seldom works out well. Yeah, Peyton Manning will likely get his points but this Indy team appears to be very beatable this season. They can’t run the ball and as a result the offense, when it does score, scores quickly, leaving the defense out on the field for far too long throughout the course of a game. Arizona was a little flat in week one but they really came to life last week in Jacksonville, making the Jags look like a bad college team. Kurt Warner was near flawless and when he gets time, which he should easily get here, he has perhaps the deadliest core of targets in the business. Despite being 2-0, the Colts could easily be 0-2 after beating the Jags by two and pulling out a win last week in Miami in a game they were completely dominated in. Indy’s charmed life is about to hit a roadblock. Play: Arizona –2½ (Risking 2.28 units to win 2).
2 unit Kansas City +9
2 unit Jacksonville +3.5
3 unit Cleveland +13.5 (best bet)
3 unit Detroit +6.5 (best bet)
3 unit San Fran +7 (best bet)
4 unit Chicago -1.5 (Major)
5 unit Buffalo +6 (Wise Guy)
Sunday Winners
40-Dime Tennessee Titans - It's not just situation why I like the Titans so much in this game. It's also the matchup. The styles favor Tennessee. More on that later. Let's first discuss the spot.
Tennessee already faces a desperate spot being 0-2. No team has made the postseason when starting 0-3 since 1998. This also is the Titans' revenge game of the year after the Jets ended their 10-game winning streak last season beating Tennessee in Nashville.
The Jets are off a monster division upset victory against the Patriots. It was the first time they had ever defeated Tom Brady at home. This is a clear letdown spot for New York, which is not used to big wins like this.
The Jets are a blitzing, aggressive defensive club now under Rex Ryan. That style matched up well to the Patriots, who like to spread the field with wideouts and attack the flanks. The Patriots made the mistake of not looking to establish a ground attack to soften the Jets up.
The Titans don't play that well. They're a physical, ground-oriented club. They have an emerging superstar in Chris Johnson, who probably is the most dangerous running back in the NFL in countering blitzes. Johnson can exploit a crack in a blitz and turn it into a touchdown no matter where he is. The Jets will have to tone down their aggressiveness because overpursuit could be deadly for them. I don't think they can do that. So far they know only one speed under Ryan. They still are missing one of their top defenders with Calvin Pace under suspension.
New York is run-oriented, too. The Titans remain one of the toughest foes to run on. They are giving up just 49.5 yards on the ground per game and 1.9 yards per carry.
This means the Jets are going to need a strong game from rookie Mark Sanchez, making his third NFL start. He's going to face the toughest pass rush of his young career after facing a weak Texans defense and a Patriots defense in transition minus their two best players, traded Richard Seymour and injured linebacker Jarod Mayo.
15-Dime Green Bay Packers - This is the week the Packers' offense, which looked so great in August, breaks out. The Packers will be missing left tackle Chad Clifton, their best pass blocker, but they've had a solid week of practice getting their offensive line in order after two bad performances.
The Rams give an effort on defense under new coach Steve Spagnuolo, but there is a huge talent deficiency and a real lack of depth. They get little heat on the quarterback. The Packers have a deep set of receivers. Aaron Rodgers will get more time to throw and he will burn a vulnerable secondary, especially playing on carpet.
How bad are the Rams? If it weren't for the Lions, the Rams would be the butt of all the jokes having lost 12 in a row. They are 7-14 against the spread as underdogs and have lost 21 of the past 23 times against teams with a winning record, although Green Bay is 1-1 this season. Going back even more, the Rams are 12-22 against the sperad in their last 34 games despite inflated point spreads. This spread isn't inflated.
Spagnuolo inherited a team that talent-wise could be even worse than Detroit. St. Louis was shut out by Seattle in Week 1 despite having a 2-0 turnover edge. Last week, the Rams could manage just 243 yards and seven points versus the Redskins. They've had 130 yards of penalties already.
Rams quarterback Marc Bulger has had happy feet for the past couple of years because of constant defensive pressure. He's a shell of his former self and now his accuracy is off because of a broken finger. The Rams were hoping to fix their leaky offensive line, but will be without their hightly-touted rookie tackle, Jason Smith.
10-Dime Cincinnati Bengals - At this point in time, the Bengals are the Steelers and the Steelers are more like the Bengals.
The Bengals are leading the NFL in sacks and running the ball well averaging 48 yards rushing per game more than Pittsburgh. The Steelers have three sacks. The Bengals have three times that amount.
Yes, it has just been two games and the Bengals, particularly Antwan Odom, had a monster sack game last week against the Packers following an injury to the Packers' best blocker, Chad Clifton.
However, these stats do reflect where these teams are at. The Bengals are back to having a balanced attack now that Carson Palmer is healthy and talented wideout Chad Ochocinco has his head and enthusiasm back in the game. Cedric Benson has proven reliable running the ball. Palmer can exploit a Pittsburgh secondary that doesn't have injured safety Troy Polamalu. His replacement, 5-foot-9 Tyrone Carter, has a thigh injury and was limited in practice this week. He may be out, too.
The Bengals have a very solid and underrated defense with seven starters who were drafted in the first two rounds. Their linebacking corps is deep and talented. They have two excellent young cornerbacks and their pass rushers can take advantage of a mediocre Steelers' offensive line that already has allowed Ben Roethlisberger to be sacked six times.
Pittsburgh's inability to pass block isn't anything new. Roethlisberger went into this season having been sacked 139 times during the last three years. The Steelers' ground game, long a stable of the offense, keeps regressing. It ranked 23rd last year and this season Steeler running backs are averaging 70.5 yards per game and only 3.1 yards per carry. Willie Parker has lost his burst making him a below average back. He's averaging a puny 2.4 yards per attempt.
The Bengals are an underappreciated, underpriced home 'dog because they've lost and failed to cover nine of the last 11 times to Pittsburgh. The Steelers are the defending world champions and 12-1 in division the past two years. In this matchup, though, reality catches up to history and perception.
5-Dime Minnesota Vikings - I like the direction the 49ers are going under Mike Singletary. Believe it or not, San Francisco actually has won seven of its last nine games. But this isn't the right spot or matchup for the 49ers.
The 49ers are traveling to the midwest for an early start time off two highly-satisfying NFC West victories against their two top division rivals, Arizona and Seattle. Both were tough matchups with the 49ers using a lot of physical and mental energy. This also is the 49ers' first game on artificial turf and their first dome contest. They have another division game next week making this their only non-division matchup during the first four weeks.
The Vikings, on the other hand, were able to ease into the season drawing cupcakes Cleveland and Detroit. Brett Favre has had enough time now to get in sync with his wideouts. Expect the Vikings to have a dangerous balanced attack running Adrian Peterson and Favre taking advantage of eight-man fronts to connect downfield more than in his first two appearances as a Viking.
The 49ers rely heavily on Frank Gore. He missed practice all week, though, because of an ankle injury. The Vikings have led the league in rush defense during the past three seasons. They rank No. 5 in overall defense this season.
I can't see Gore doing much against the Vikings' massive run-stuffing defensive line. The 49ers don't have nearly an explosive enough passing offense to compensate, especially on the road.
Jimmy Thompson Guaranteed Selections
Date: Sunday, September 27, 2009
$20.00 Guaranteed: It's been a good week in every sport but we are getting our feet back under us on the diamond just in time for the Playoffs. We won for the 3rd time in 4 games yesterday with the Brewers/Phillies over in what was our NL Total of the Week. We will back that winner with another Total of the Week, but this time we switch over to the American League!! 9/27/2009
Oakland/Los Angeles over 9.5 at 3:35 est
The A's just refuse to quietly into the offseason. They came back from being down 9-2 yesterday and beat Los Angeles keeping the Angels celebration hopes well on ice. The A's are on their own personal mission to get back to .500 and right now it's hard to bet against them. There winning games with 15 runs like yesterday and then 3-0 like Friday Night. The A's are throwing there worst possible starter in Edgar Gonzalez today so you can bet the Angels bats will be looking for at least one win in this series. We fully expect the Angels to do just about what they did last night, but you know the way the A's are playing that they'll get there share off of Saunders also. Too tough to call the winner in this game but we like this game to get to 14 runs and maybe many more!
40-Dime Tennessee Titans - It's not just situation why I like the Titans so much in this game. It's also the matchup. The styles favor Tennessee. More on that later. Let's first discuss the spot.
Tennessee already faces a desperate spot being 0-2. No team has made the postseason when starting 0-3 since 1998. This also is the Titans' revenge game of the year after the Jets ended their 10-game winning streak last season beating Tennessee in Nashville.
The Jets are off a monster division upset victory against the Patriots. It was the first time they had ever defeated Tom Brady at home. This is a clear letdown spot for New York, which is not used to big wins like this.
The Jets are a blitzing, aggressive defensive club now under Rex Ryan. That style matched up well to the Patriots, who like to spread the field with wideouts and attack the flanks. The Patriots made the mistake of not looking to establish a ground attack to soften the Jets up.
The Titans don't play that well. They're a physical, ground-oriented club. They have an emerging superstar in Chris Johnson, who probably is the most dangerous running back in the NFL in countering blitzes. Johnson can exploit a crack in a blitz and turn it into a touchdown no matter where he is. The Jets will have to tone down their aggressiveness because overpursuit could be deadly for them. I don't think they can do that. So far they know only one speed under Ryan. They still are missing one of their top defenders with Calvin Pace under suspension.
New York is run-oriented, too. The Titans remain one of the toughest foes to run on. They are giving up just 49.5 yards on the ground per game and 1.9 yards per carry.
This means the Jets are going to need a strong game from rookie Mark Sanchez, making his third NFL start. He's going to face the toughest pass rush of his young career after facing a weak Texans defense and a Patriots defense in transition minus their two best players, traded Richard Seymour and injured linebacker Jarod Mayo.
15-Dime Green Bay Packers - This is the week the Packers' offense, which looked so great in August, breaks out. The Packers will be missing left tackle Chad Clifton, their best pass blocker, but they've had a solid week of practice getting their offensive line in order after two bad performances.
The Rams give an effort on defense under new coach Steve Spagnuolo, but there is a huge talent deficiency and a real lack of depth. They get little heat on the quarterback. The Packers have a deep set of receivers. Aaron Rodgers will get more time to throw and he will burn a vulnerable secondary, especially playing on carpet.
How bad are the Rams? If it weren't for the Lions, the Rams would be the butt of all the jokes having lost 12 in a row. They are 7-14 against the spread as underdogs and have lost 21 of the past 23 times against teams with a winning record, although Green Bay is 1-1 this season. Going back even more, the Rams are 12-22 against the sperad in their last 34 games despite inflated point spreads. This spread isn't inflated.
Spagnuolo inherited a team that talent-wise could be even worse than Detroit. St. Louis was shut out by Seattle in Week 1 despite having a 2-0 turnover edge. Last week, the Rams could manage just 243 yards and seven points versus the Redskins. They've had 130 yards of penalties already.
Rams quarterback Marc Bulger has had happy feet for the past couple of years because of constant defensive pressure. He's a shell of his former self and now his accuracy is off because of a broken finger. The Rams were hoping to fix their leaky offensive line, but will be without their hightly-touted rookie tackle, Jason Smith.
10-Dime Cincinnati Bengals - At this point in time, the Bengals are the Steelers and the Steelers are more like the Bengals.
The Bengals are leading the NFL in sacks and running the ball well averaging 48 yards rushing per game more than Pittsburgh. The Steelers have three sacks. The Bengals have three times that amount.
Yes, it has just been two games and the Bengals, particularly Antwan Odom, had a monster sack game last week against the Packers following an injury to the Packers' best blocker, Chad Clifton.
However, these stats do reflect where these teams are at. The Bengals are back to having a balanced attack now that Carson Palmer is healthy and talented wideout Chad Ochocinco has his head and enthusiasm back in the game. Cedric Benson has proven reliable running the ball. Palmer can exploit a Pittsburgh secondary that doesn't have injured safety Troy Polamalu. His replacement, 5-foot-9 Tyrone Carter, has a thigh injury and was limited in practice this week. He may be out, too.
The Bengals have a very solid and underrated defense with seven starters who were drafted in the first two rounds. Their linebacking corps is deep and talented. They have two excellent young cornerbacks and their pass rushers can take advantage of a mediocre Steelers' offensive line that already has allowed Ben Roethlisberger to be sacked six times.
Pittsburgh's inability to pass block isn't anything new. Roethlisberger went into this season having been sacked 139 times during the last three years. The Steelers' ground game, long a stable of the offense, keeps regressing. It ranked 23rd last year and this season Steeler running backs are averaging 70.5 yards per game and only 3.1 yards per carry. Willie Parker has lost his burst making him a below average back. He's averaging a puny 2.4 yards per attempt.
The Bengals are an underappreciated, underpriced home 'dog because they've lost and failed to cover nine of the last 11 times to Pittsburgh. The Steelers are the defending world champions and 12-1 in division the past two years. In this matchup, though, reality catches up to history and perception.
5-Dime Minnesota Vikings - I like the direction the 49ers are going under Mike Singletary. Believe it or not, San Francisco actually has won seven of its last nine games. But this isn't the right spot or matchup for the 49ers.
The 49ers are traveling to the midwest for an early start time off two highly-satisfying NFC West victories against their two top division rivals, Arizona and Seattle. Both were tough matchups with the 49ers using a lot of physical and mental energy. This also is the 49ers' first game on artificial turf and their first dome contest. They have another division game next week making this their only non-division matchup during the first four weeks.
The Vikings, on the other hand, were able to ease into the season drawing cupcakes Cleveland and Detroit. Brett Favre has had enough time now to get in sync with his wideouts. Expect the Vikings to have a dangerous balanced attack running Adrian Peterson and Favre taking advantage of eight-man fronts to connect downfield more than in his first two appearances as a Viking.
The 49ers rely heavily on Frank Gore. He missed practice all week, though, because of an ankle injury. The Vikings have led the league in rush defense during the past three seasons. They rank No. 5 in overall defense this season.
I can't see Gore doing much against the Vikings' massive run-stuffing defensive line. The 49ers don't have nearly an explosive enough passing offense to compensate, especially on the road.
Trace Adams 2500* - Minnesota Vikings - 1pm On the surface you would think that the pair of 2-0 teams playing this Sunday in the Metrodome would appear to be evenly matched, and perhaps that will be the case for a little while in this game, but as this game wears on, Minnesota will show why they are to be considered among the elite team in the NFC.
The Vikings have been able to come up with double-digit road wins and covers at Cleveland, and at Detroit, and while those 2 teams will not be mentioned come postseason time, Minny was able to win both of those games by double-digits on the road!
This will be Minnesota's home opener, and it presents a real advantage in this matchup, as the 49ers are certainly not built for playing in a dome. San Francisco's Frank Gore did crack the 200 yard mark at home last week against Seattle, but he was held to just 30 yards in week one at Arizona. Expect the rushing yards to be hard to come by for the Niners in the Vikings' house.
You can also expect that with each week, Brett Favre gets a little more comfortable at the controls of this dangerous offense. Mike Singletary may "will" his team to hang in this game for a while, but in the end, Minnesota in their home opener will prove too much for San Francisco.
This is another double-digit Minnesota win and cover.
100% chance of showers with 13-mph wind expected. This should favor Atlanta on the ground. Michael Turner who is averaging under 70 yards game should be able to move the ball against what people believe to be a good New England rush defense. We have not seen the Pats face a RB like Turner. This game will be won on the ground and the advantage goes to ATL. For all those fantasy owners, Turner will rush for 150+ yards. Matt Ryan has been very effective so far this year completing 68% of his passes; sporting a 108.5 QB Rating. So when the falcons are not running they will be completing passes.
The Pats are not much of a running team and rely completely on Tom Brady’s arm. He has already thrown the ball 19 more times than any QB in the league. The problem is Brady’s arm can only be good as the people he is throwing to. Wes Welker is listed questionable for the game but if he can go he will not be 100%. Randy Moss even made the injury report but expect him to play. Tom Brady has seen more pressure, hurries, and been hit more than any other year. He has struggled trying to get into rhythm and setting his feet to make the big pass plays we are use to seeing him make.
Take the points even though Atlanta will move to 3-0!!!!!!!
VegasBuster @ Vas Sports – Golden Play
Kansas City @ Philadelphia -7
Pick: Philadelphia –7
Looks like Kolb will get the starting position this week and that will be fine against a KC team that seems to be going nowhere. Kolb almost passed for 400 yards against New Orleans and impressed. There has always been something about the Eagles that has always catches my attention. Anytime McNabb has gone down with injury the team really rallies around the backup.
If there is one thing I am certain, the defense will not get embarrassed in front of their home crowd like they did last week against the Saints. The defensive talent is there and KC will get hit with all types of blitzing schemes that Cassell will not handle well.
Philadelphia from start to finish!!!!
VegasBuster @ Vas Sports – Platinum Play
Tennessee +2 @ NY Jets
Pick: Titans +2
Sorry Jets fans but your time has come to get a loss. Rookie Sanchez has looked good so far this year. But this will be a different game for him. Titans defense will cause problems for the rookie and look for the Jets to start off the game rough. Jets will probably make a run late in the game but it will not be enough. The Titans will not leave New York 0-3.
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