10-3-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-3-09

Black Widow

4* on Kent State/Baylor O 50(-105 5dimes)

Baylor might just score 50 points on their own this week, but if they don't then Kent State will put up enough points to get the OVER. The Bears scored 68 points last week in a 68-13 home win over Northwestern State. Kent State has given up 34 points each to Boston College and Iowa State in their two losses, two teams not known for having explosive offenses. Baylor is a team known for their deadly offense, as they've put up 38.0 points per game this year. They've also faced two tough defenses in Wake Forest and Connecticut, so that's a pretty impressive average when you factor that in. Kent State is 8-1 OVER (+6.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons. The OVER is 9-3 in Golden Flashes last 12 games overall. The OVER is 9-1 in Bears last 10 games as a home favorite. Take the OVER 50 points.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-3-09

Black Widow

4* on SMU/TCU O 48.5(-105 5dimes)

This is another game where we could see TCU scoring 50 points on their own against this soft SMU defense. But the Mustangs have a great offense of their own, and SMU will put up enough points to get the OVER if TCU cannot get it themselves. The Horned Frogs put up 48 points on SMU last year, so as you can see it's not a problem. SMU is scoring 31.0 points per game and giving up 28.7 points per contest this year. The Mustangs are averaging 326 passing yards and 432 totals yards per game. TCU is scoring 33.3 points per game with 425 totals yards per contest in 2009. They are rushing and throwing for more than 200 yards each for a very balanced attack which is tough to stop. TCU is 14-3 OVER (+10.7 Units) in home games after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers since 1992. The OVER is 5-0 in Horned Frogs last 5 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater. Take the OVER 48.5 points here.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-3-09

Lawrence

5* Nevada
4* Mich St
3* Southern Cal

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-3-09

Right Angle Sports (sides)

FAU
UL Monroe
Cincinnati

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-3-09

ASA

4* minnesota
4* ohio st
4* mich st
3* miami fl
3* washington

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-3-09

trushel

20* utep

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-3-09

Kelso:
200 unit Texas Tech -34.5 New Mexico
15 unit Clemson -12.5 Maryland
5 unit Georgia -3.5 LSU
4 unit Kansas State +2 Iowa State
3 unit UCLA +5 Stanford
3 unit Auburn +2 Tennesses

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-3-09

Analyst: Eddie Roman
30,000 Dimes of Action

SATURDAY'S ACTION

20,000 Dime Personal System Lock

GEORGIA BULLDOGS -3 over Lsu


7500 Dime PAC-10 Two Pack

STANFORD CARDINAL -5 over ucla

CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS +5 over usc

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-3-09

Bob Valentino

50 DIME Saturday Football Winner ...
50 DIME: CLEMSON (minus the points vs. Maryland)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-3-09

Doc Sports

8 Unit Play. #88 Take Minnesota -2 ½ over Wisconsin (Saturday 12 pm ESPN) Big Ten Game of the Year. Now we will find out who is for real and who is just an imposter. The Gophers enter this game at 3-1, with their only loss coming against California. This team has two road victories on the season, at Syracuse and at Northwestern. As for the Badgers, they are untested, supporting a 4-0 record; however, this team has yet to be challenged on the road. You did read that right, it is October and Wisconsin has yet to play a road game this season.

The Badgers have won five straight games in this series. In 2008 the Gophers led the 21-7 at halftime, before falling, 35-32. In that game, All-Conference WR Eric Decker was injured and did not play. The 2009 squad is the best group Coach Tim Brewster has had since he took over and the offense is loaded with QB Adam Weber and a great receiving core. The offensive line is much better then the 2008 edition and they now have the ability to beat you via the ground as well as though the air.

As for the Badgers, the home cooking will not be found here. The quarterback position is in good hands with Scott Tolzien; however, the running game is not up to Wisconsin’s usually standard. The defense has had problems against Fresno State and Michigan State, as both clubs had over 400 yards of total offense. I expect this team to struggle against a strong offense, especially one like Minnesota that can beat you two ways.

Minnesota had a big win last week on the road against Northwestern and I look for a carryover here, since this team is loaded with upperclassman. Coach Brewster will remind his players that none of them have ever beaten Wisconsin. This is the first Big Ten game at TCF Bank Stadium and expect this team to be sky high. They have the edge in talent, home field, and coaching and this small line is just too good to pass up. The Ax heads North, as the Badgers streak finally come to an end! Minnesota 31, Wisconsin 20.

5 Unit Play. #60 Take Georgia -3 over LSU (Saturday 3:30 pm CBS) Top College Selection. As one looks at this game, it is hard to figure why Georgia is favored since they are ranked #18 and LSU is ranked #4. Throw in the fact that the Tigers are undefeated and it makes this even more questionable. The fact is that Georgia has played a much tougher schedule and not question that they are the better club. The Dawg’s rush defense has been outstanding and that does not bode well for LSU, since they rushed for just 30 yards against Mississippi State. They had only 164 yards the previous week against UL-Lafayette.

Granted LSU will be looking for revenge, but that does not mean much if you do not have the horses to execute the mission. Bulldogs will score points and I just do not see LSU keeping pace. Playing inside the hedges gives Georgia the call and this one will not be as close as you might think. Georgia 38, LSU 14.

5 Unit Play. #26 Take Illinois +7 over Penn State (Saturday 3:30 pm ABC) Top Underdog Play. I took the Illini last week only to get burned 30-0 as a 14 point underdog against Ohio State. This Illinois team was expected to be good with several skill players returning. With losses to Missouri and Ohio State certainly bring doubt for Coach Turner and company. Now this team finds their backs against the wall! A bad outing on Saturday may see them throw in the towel for the 2009 season. The talent is still there, now it is time for Coach Zook to prove he can be a good coach and justify his hiring after little success at Florida.

QB Williams has yet to have a good game in 2009 and the defense has struggled defending the pass. Penn State lost to Iowa last week and that was no shock to this writer. The Lions offense is just not putting up points and the defense is having problems, especially at the linebacker position hampered by injuries. This team is just not as strong as past Paterno teams and can only score in the forties against weak opponents such as Akron or Temple. My gut feeling is that the Illini will finally come to play and Juice Williams will have a breakout game. Receiving around a touchdown is a bonus as the Lions will fall to 0-2 in the Big Ten. The homer gets the call in upset fashion! Illinois 27, Penn State 20.

4 Unit Play. #27 Take Arkansas State +22 over Iowa (12:05 pm ESPN 2) I really liked the Hawks last week against Penn State and feel they have the best team in the Big Ten; however, their road schedule is brutal. As good as Iowa is, if you ever see a flat spot, it will be here coming off a big win in Happy Valley and having Michigan on deck.

As for Arkansas State, they are certainly not in the same class as Iowa, but do not underestimate this club. They return 15 starters from 2008 and are loaded with seniors. The Red Wolves are used to playing powers on the road, playing Nebraska this year, Texas A & M & Alabama in 2008, and Texas & Tennessee in 2007. Look for the Hawkeyes to go through the motions and the points look very attractive. Iowa 27, Arkansas State 14.

4 Unit Play. #33 Take Clemson -12 ½ over Maryland (Saturday 12 pm ESPN U) I am never wild about laying points on the road; however, this is a case of two clubs moving in different directions. The Tigers have lost two games thus far; however; both losses came against good teams, TCU and Georgia Tech. The Tigers were expecting a good season and cannot afford another early season loss, especially against a very untalented Maryland club. The Terrapins have only beaten James Madison, 38-35, and I question if they will win another game this season.

Both clubs have played Middle Tennessee State this season. Maryland lost to them, 32-31 and Clemson beat them, 37-14. The Tigers come in with a balanced attack and a solid defense. They lost to Maryland in 2008, 20-17, revenge will be sweet. The talent gap between the two clubs in deep and this one will be all Tigers. Clemson 34, Maryland 10.

4 Unit Play. #38 Take Michigan State -3 over Michigan (Saturday 12 pm Big 10 Network) Talk about having one’s back against one’s wall! Michigan State enters this annual battle on a three game losing streak and this is their season here. Field position really killed MSU in last week’s battle with Wisconsin. No question that this team has the talent, but I have been waiting for them to play to their ability.

This will be the Wolverines first road game of the season. I respect how Coach Rodriguez has turned around this club, but I still feel he is a couple years away from becoming a conference power. A loss by Michigan State here will probably mean I will avoid using them as a selection for the rest of the season. But this line is low and it is just too good to pass up, as the Spartans finally play to their potential. Michigan State 28, Michigan 20.

4 Unit Play. #86 Take California +4 ½ over USC (Saturday 8 pm ABC) Always hard to come back with a team after using them the previous week when they got their butts kicked. The Bears played well in the first quarter but then hibernated and simply gave up after that. This team might have been looking ahead and simply has too much talent not to come back strong here, especially playing in Berkley. The Trojans have won five straight in this series, but have had a major edge in talent in those games. That is not the case in 2009, as Cal returned 15 starters from 2008 and none of these players have experienced the feeling of beating USC.

Although the Trojans have the best defense of the two teams, I am not convinced QB Matt Barkley and company will be able to score points at will. The loser of this game will see there hopes for a big bowl game fade and thus I expect it to be played close to the best, in a low scoring battle. The homer pulls out all the stops here and it is just too many points for the visitor to be laying in what will be a tight match. California 24, USC 21.


strong opinion plays:
Florida State by 14 over Boston College (line is 4)
Texas Tech by 42 over New Mexico (line is 35.5)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-3-09

Maddux

#118 - NCAA - 4 units on Minnesota -2.5
#159 - NCAA - 3 units on Ohio +3
#194 - NCAA - 3 units on UTEP +16.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-3-09

Marc Lawrence
5* BEST BET
NEVADA over Unlv by 16
Nevada will have had over a week to put aside their third consecutive loss
and now fi nds itself in an eagerly anticipated rivalry match. But disregard
the 0-3 start for a minute. Nevada’s losses have come against three foes
that are 10-2 combined this season. Under head coach Chris Ault ,the
Wolf Pack is 12-1 SU and ATS as a home favorite of 16 points or less. The
slow-starting canines should be ‘Hungry Like the Wolf’ here, enjoying
huge line value in this spot (see our AWESOME ANGLE on page 2 for
more on this). Meanwhile, UNLV sports a not-so-clean 0-4 ATS mark in
the series, including 0-3 in the last three away. To make matters worse,
UNLV boss Mark Sanford is 2-22 SU and 6-17-1 ATS away, including 0-14
SU and 2-12 ATS versus a foe off a loss. We’re betting the Pack wins the
gold in this ‘Silver State’ battle. You should, too.

4* BEST BET
MICHIGAN ST over Michigan by 10
Wolverines QB Tate Forcier led another fourth quarter scoring drive last
week against Indiana and Michigan is now 4-0 for the fi rst time since 2006.
The Maize-and-Blue is back, right? Not so fast my friend! The Wolves,
1-10 ATS in road openers and 1-4 ATS before Iowa, were outgained 467-
372 by Indiana and had to strap on the skates against Notre Dame a few
weeks ago as well. Despite losing three in a row recently, Michigan State
is 6-1 SU and 6-0-1 ATS at home off a loss against a foe off a win under HC
Mark Dantonio. The Spartans are also 9-2 ATS after allowing 38 or more
points, including 7-0 ATS against opponents off a win. Michigan, 1-4 ATS
after Indiana and 3-8-1 ATS in the fi rst of back-to-back road games, looks
up and sees a trip to dangerous Iowa on deck. PLAYBOOK does the same
and sees a Michigan State team that has NEVER lost four in a row ATS
under Dantonio (2-0 SU and ATS after three losses). Be a Sparty cat and
run with MSU today.

3* BEST BET
USC over CAL by 16
Like USC two weeks ago, the Golden Bears’ chances of a perfect season
went down the drain in a major way following their one-sided loss at
Oregon. California, 1-5 ATS as a conference home dog or favorite of three
or more points, has to be in desperation mode with the Trojans marching
in. USC is 5-0 SU in the last fi ve Cal meetings, having held the Bears to
an average of just 11 PPG in those contests. To make matters worse for
Jeff Tedford, California is 3-9 ATS after Oregon and 0-4 SU and ATS as a
conference dog or favorite of 3 or less points off a SU favorite loss. The
kicker, though is Pete Carroll – the answer to this week’s TRIVIA TEASER
on page 2. Aside from a plethora of pointspread success with USC, his
Trojans are 23-2 SU and 21-4 ATS in their last 25 games as favorites of 12
or less points, including 17-1 SU and ATS against an opponent that has
lost at least one game on the season! To compound the situation, Carroll
has lost the money in his last three games. He can’t bear the thought of
that streak going to four. Not here. Not today.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-3-09

RAS:

byu U65

fla int U55

temple U47

smuO49.5

Also has 3 sides released early this week.

Fla Atlantic,
Cinn
La. Monroe

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-3-09

Jim Feist's 20-Star College Football High Roller Mismatch - Saturday!

CF (117) WISCONSIN VS (118) MINNESOTA

Take: (118) MINNESOTA

Reason: 20-Star High Roller Mismatch: Minnesota.

After playing 4 in a row at home, Wisconsin (4-0 SU, 1-2 ATS) heads out on the road. And this defense is suspect. They had a 34-31 victory over Fresno State with 413 total yards, but the defense gave up 468 yards (179 rushing). The Badgers also have up 30 pionts and 420 yards to Michigan State. Wisconsin has been great at home, but 3-9 ATS its last 12 away. Tim Brewster brought the spread offense to Minnesota (3-1 SU/ATS) and has junior QB Adam Weber (5 TD, 5 picks) and senior WR Eric Decker, a top talent. Wisconsin has won the last two years in shootouts, 41-34 and 35-32, but Minnesota is improved and the Badgers' weak defense will be explosed in its first road contest. Play Minnesota.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-3-09

BRYAN LEONARD'S SATURDAY NCAA SHOCKER

143/144 Washington at Notre Dame

We played against both these teams last week and swept the board with easy covers. Washington was off their huge upset of USC and Notre Dame as always was overvalued. Well this week we will back the Huskies as the Irish continue to remain overrated.

Washington has faced much tougher defenses than this Notre Dame stop unit and had solid success. They produced 23 points and 5.8 yards per play against LSU. They then pulled off the shocker against USC who owns one of the top stop units in the nation. QB Jake Locker should have a field day moving the chains, and the Huskies look to have a key contributor WR Devin Aguilar back on the field this week. Defensively Washington will give up some points and yardage but they will be facing a depleted Irish scoring unit.

Notre Dame QB Jimmy Clausen and RB Armondo Allen will both play but they won't be 100%. Last week the offense struggled without the injured Michael Floyd and the team averaged just 4.8 yards per play against a questionable Purdue defense. Washington's stop unit compares with that of the Boilermakers so we can't see Claussen and company putting up much more than the 24 points they scored last week. Defensively the Irish have stopped nobody with the possible exception of Nevada who has looked terrible thus far. They allowed 5.7 yards per play to Purdue, 7.1 ypp to Michigan State and 6.1 ypp to Michigan. Even in shutting out the Wolf Pack they permitted 5.5 yards per play.

Simply put the Irish are not nearly as good as the media would have you believe. They are off three straight last second outcomes with two of those games falling in their favor. In the Charlie Weis regime Notre Dame is 8-14 ATS as a home favorite with six outright losses. Look for a high scoring affair as Washington matches the Irish all day long in another late game finish.
PLAY WASHINGTON