10-3-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-3-09

Wizard of OddsGuaranteed SelectionsDate: Saturday, October 03, 2009
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[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-3-09

Tim Trushel
Additional Plays:
Arkansas/ Regular
Minnesoa/ Regular
Washington/Regular

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-3-09

Psychic
Private Members Area

10/3

2 unit LSU +3.5
2 unit Boston College +4
3 unit Miami, Fl +7.5 (best bet)
3 unit FAU -3.5 (best bet)
4 unit Michigan St -3 (Major)
4 unit Auburn +3 (Major)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-3-09

ATS

8 Ark -1
8 Nev -5 1/2
8 S Fla -6 1/2
8 NC St. +3

2 Unit RR with the four
159 6- Ohio +3

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-3-09

Stryker

29 Year ATS Record = 27-9 ATS for 75.0 percent!

This Week’s Plays = SYRACUSE, VANDERBILT and DUKE

Momentum is a tremendous handicapping tool and these gave five home pups looking to get over the hump rise to the occasion.

There are a couple of ways to make this system even more powerful. If our “play on” host tangled with a non-conference foe last, this technical situation explodes to a magnificent 20-5 ATS for 80.0 percent. Last week, Syracuse (Big East) knocked helmets with Maine (CAA), Vanderbilt (SEC) battled Rice (CUSA) and Duke (ACC) traded punches with North Carolina Central (Independent). That means the Orangemen, Commodores and Blue Devils apply to this special tightener.

With our 20-5 ATS in hand, we can improve this situation to 15-2 ATS for 88.2 percent provided our host played in their own backyard the last time out. There are two teams that fit this special tightener – Syracuse and Duke. The Orangemen steamrolled the Black Bears in the Dome while the Blue Devils roasted the Eagles in Durham!
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[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-3-09

FairwayJay
20* Big 10 GOY - MICHIGAN ST
15* CALIFORNIA
10* UTAH ST
10* DUKE
10* ARKANSAS ST
10* MINN U
10* MIAMI OH
10* NEVADA RENO
10* OVER INDIANA
10* SMU

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-3-09

GoodFella | CFB Side Sat, 10/03/09 - 3:30 PM

double-dime bet 126 Boston College 4.5 (-115) bodog vs 125 Florida St.



GoodFella | CFB Side Sat, 10/03/09 - 7:00 PM u

double-dime bet 134 Vanderbilt 10.0 (-115) bodog vs 133 Mississippi
Analysis:
I am just not totally sold on this Ole Miss squad like so many others are, and I really li¹ke the +10 here for the Vandy squad. Ole Miss host SEC Powerhouse Bama next week & they could very well be overlooking Vanderbilt some here..Vandy's "D" is a bit underated and I dont expect a Ole Miss blowout here at all. Vandy is 3-0 ATS L/3 home games vs Ole Miss & Vandy is 7-1 ATS L/8 games vs Ole Miss overall. This is a nice spot for Vandy getting double digits at home in this conference battle.


GoodFella | CFB Side Sat, 10/03/09 - 10:30 PM u

double-dime bet 164 Idaho 4.0 (-120) bodog vs 163 Colorado St.
Analysis:
I fully expect this line to go to +4 (-110) but I am releasing it at +4 (-120) because I am personally waiting it out to get +4 -110, but its NOT at the time of this release, as its still +3.5 (-110).....so I will grade the selection at (-120). I strongly suggest waiting this one out & pouncing on +4 when you can.



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I have backed the Idaho Vandals on two occasions this season, and they are actually 4-0 TS this season. This team has a very underated offense and QB, and this team can and will move the ball at home vs this Colorado St. team. Colorado St. i¹s just 1-4 ATS L/5 games they have been road favorites. If Idaho can contain the Rams ground game, I fully expect a outright win by the hometown Vandals. I really like the +4 here & I still believe this Idaho team is underated and undervalued and I would not be surprised if they beat this Colorado St. in their own backyard, and I definitely like them at the +4.

GoodFella | CFB MoneyLine Sat, 10/03/09 - 3:30 PM u

double-dime bet 128 Buffalo (-120) Bookmaker.com vs 127 Cent. Michigan
Analysis:
Two Team 7 pt. Teaser: -120 (Both Bookmaker and 5dimes Sportsbook)

Buffalo +15.5 to UCLA +12.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-3-09

Dominic Fazzini
Saturday's plays 20 Dime -- Alabama (minus points vs. KENTUCKY)
5 Dime -- MIAMI (plus points vs. Oklahoma)

ALABAMA

The Crimson Tide defense is ferocious, and seems to be getting better each week.

Alabama is allowing just 202.5 yards per game, including 47.3 on the ground, both of which rank second in the nation. Even with star linebacker Donta Hightower suffering a season-ending injury last week in the Tide's 35-7 over Arkansas, that doesn't fare well for the Wildcats.

Kentucky managed just 179 yards and went 3-for-16 on third downs last week in its 41-7 home loss to top-ranked Florida.

And if Alabama isn't scary enough on defense, its offense is averaging 40.5 points and 490.5 yards per game. QB Greg McElroy heads a balanced attack, and went 17 of 24 for 291 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions last week.

The visitor is 3-0 against the spread in the teams' last three meetings, and the Crimson Tide is just 3-4 ATS in their last seven games vs. Kentucky despite going 6-1 straight up. But after getting a scare last year in a 17-14 victory over the Wildcats, coach Nick Saban is not going to let his team be caught by surprise today. Take Alabama to cover the points in an easy victory.

MIAMI

There were some rumblings that Oklahoma star quarterback Sam Bradford would start today for the first time since injuring his right shoulder in the team's season opener, but redshirt freshman Landry Jones will make his third straight start.

Jones has helped the Sooners win by a combined score of 109-0 the last two weeks against Idaho State and Tulsa, but that wasn't like going into Miami to face a Hurricanes team hungry for a victory after being embarrassed 31-7 at Virginia Tech last weekend.

Hurricanes sophomore QB Jacory Harris suffered some growing pains against the Hokies, going 9 of 25 for 150 yards with an interception and a lost fumble, but I think that experience will benefit him today against Oklahoma. And Miami's offensive line should be able to provide enough support for the 'Canes to penetrate the Sooners' defense.

Miami is 8-1 at home vs. nonconference BCS teams, and have won by an average of 21 points. It is also 5-1 ATS as an underdog. I'm not saying the 'Canes win today, but I do believe they stay within a touchdown of the Sooners, especially with OU starting a freshman QB making his first start on the road. Take Miami to cover the points.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-3-09

Mike Lineback

4* Washington Huskies

4* Georgia Bulldogs

4* USC / California Under

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-3-09

Stephen Nover Saturday's Winners 60-Dime Oklahoma - First off, I'm fine with Landry Jones at quarterback for Oklahoma if Sam Bradford can't go. The Sooners are 2-0 with Jones having blown out Idaho State 64-0 and more impressively Tulsa 45-0.

Jones, who was more highly recruited than Bradford, is 43-for-69 passing for 622 yards and nine touchdowns with three interceptions in the two games since Bradford went down.

The Sooners rank eighth nationally in scoring averaging 40.7 points and their defense has been outstanding. Tulsa, with its high-powered offense, could pick up just 269 points, its lowest output since a 2006 bowl loss.

Miami is better than I expected. But the Hurricanes are still a long ways from staying within a touchdown against this caliber of opponent. That was proven last week when Virginia Tech shut them down, 31-7. Just two years ago, Oklahoma defeated Miami by 38 points.

Miami exploited mistakes by Florida State and Georgia Tech to post wins agains its fellow ACC foes. I'm not real impressed with the ACC, though. Maybe Randy Shannon finally has the Hurricanes headed upward. Jacory Harris is a promising quarterback with lots of talent. But the Hurricanes aren't ready yet to stay with a powerful Sooners squad that is in top form.

20-Dime Nevada - Yes, Nevada is a disappointing 0-3. But let's not lose sight that the Wolf Pack have played teams that are a combined 10-2, including Notre Dame and Missouri, which is proving to be better than most anticipated.

Nevada treats this in-state rivalry matchup much more serious than UNLV. I know this first-hand from having covered the UNLVL football team for the Las Vegas Review-Journal newspaper and from knowing Nevada coach Chris Ault and having spent time in Reno.

The Wolf Pack are a very dangerous 0-3 team. They've been hurt by a minus 9 turnover differential. That's not going to continue because Chris Kaepernick is too good of a quarterback. The Wolf Pack have beaten and covered against UNLV the past four years. Last year, Nevada rolled up 620 yards of offense in a 49-27 victory.

Nevada has a huge coaching edge. Ault is at his best as a home favorite covering 12 of the past 13 times as home chalk of 16 points or less.

UNLV coach Mike Sanford only has a job because he signed a long-term deal and the Rebels don't want to pay him off before his contract is finished. Under Sanford the Rebels are 2-22 on the road, 6-17-1 against the spread.

The Rebels just don't travel well under Sanford, especially in conference games and against this particularly non-division foe. The Rebels have failed to cover the past three times they've traveled to Reno.

Morale is down at UNLV following an upset loss to Wyoming. Rebel quarterback Omar Clayton also is dealing with a sore right shoulder.

15-Dime Washington - Washington had its letdown last week against Stanford after scoring a major upset against USC. Now Notre Dame faces a tough situational spot.

The Irish have played three straight games that went down to the final minute. That's not only physically tough, but mentally draining, too. The Irish are off next week but their following game is against USC, a team they've lost to seven straight times.

The Irish don't have the coaching and defense to cover this big of a number. They shouldn't be a double-digit favorite, especially after losing star wide receiver Michael Floyd. Notre Dame averaged 4.8 yards per play and scored just 24 points versus a mediocre Purdue defense last week without Floyd. Notre Dame's offense clearly isn't as good without Floyd. In addition, quarterback Jimmy Clausen and running back Armondo Allen are both banged-up. Clausen is dealing with turf toe, a painful injury.

This is a much bigger game for Washington which is striving for credibility under new coach Steve Sarkisian. He's doing a fine job of turning things around for the Huskies. Sarkisian has transformed highly-talented Jake Locker into being a pro-style quarterback. This suits Locker's skills more than being a read-option type of quarterback he was under Tyrone Willingham.

Locker gives the Huskies a chance to beat just about any team. Notre Dame usually is overrated and that's the case again this season. The Irish surrendered 5.7 yards per play to Purdue, 6.1 yards per play to Michigan and 7.1 yards per play to Michigan State. Locker and Washington can put up similar numbers.

Weis is another Notre Dame negative. The Irish are 8-14 against the spread as a home favorite under him with six outright losses.

10-Dime Florida State - Granted, Florida State could be the most mind-boggling team in college football. The 2-2 Seminoles blow a game to Miami and nearly lose to unheralded Jacksonville State, score a blowout win at BYU and then fall as a two-touchdown favorite to South Florida.

So what to make of Florida State this week? I say you'll get the very good Seminoles.

The Seminoles are steaming mad after fumbling four times versus South Florida while also not coming away with any points during three trips inside the 10-yard line. There is historical precedence for this feel. The Seminoles are 15-6 against the spread under Bobby Bowden in those situations when they are off a straight-up loss as a favorite meeting an opponent that won their last game.

The Eagles got past Wake Forest in overtime last week despite giving up nearly 500 yards. Talent-wise the Eagles are stepping up in class. They didn't fare too well when they met Clemson two weeks ago, losing 25-7 gaining just 54 yards.

Boston College's defensive front seven is young. Florida State has major edges in caliber of athletes and team speed. The question is motivation and concentration. The Seminoles should possess those key traits this week.

The Eagles have failed to cover the past four times they've hosted Florida State

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-3-09

Tony Weston
SATURDAY'S PLAYS 30 Dime USC
10 Dime Michigan
5 Dime Virginia Tech

USC at California
USC - No matter how their seasons are going, no matter which direction each team is headed, when USC and Cal get together in their annual Pac-10 showdown, it almost always goes the way of the Trojans.

Over the last decade USC has gone 7-3 SU against the Golden Bears. And while you may be put off by that 4-6 ATS record the Trojans have compiled against Cal in that stretch, don’t let that get the best of your judgement.

After Cal cashed in 5 of 6 meetings from 1999-2004, USC has covered in 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

It’s also important to note that in their last 4 meetings the Trojans have been favored, on average, by about 12 1/2 points (12.3). For tonight’s matchup, USC is laying only about 4 points. And that number has gone down after opening at about 6 1/2.

In their last four meetings, USC has beaten Cal by an average of 15 points per game, including last year’s 17-3 victory. The last couple of games in Berkeley have seen USC cover as an 18 1/2 point favorite in 2005, winning 35-10, then covering as a 4-point favorite in 2007, beating the Bears 24-17.

Things won’t be any different tonight as USC pulls off another victory SU and ATS against Cal.



Michigan at Michigan State
MICHIGAN - So far this season the Michigan State Spartans have not looked good at all, save a 44-3 beat down of Division II Montana State to start the season.

But since that win, the Spartans have gone 0-3 SU and have covered in just 1 of those games, a 33-30 loss on the road at Notre Dame where Michigan State was catching 10 1/2 points.

Now, coming off a 38-30 loss as a 2-point underdog on the road at Wisconsin, the Spartans are installed as a favorite? That's right, most places have Michigan State laying about 3 1/2 points against visiting Michigan.

I'm taking those points and I'm taking the Wolverines in this one.

While some people are a little gun shy to take Michigan on the road with a freshman quarterback starting under center, the team has almost quietly turned into one of the better teams in the country.

The team has erased last year's nightmare season in head coach Rich Rodriguez's first year and have jumped to a 4-0 SU start, having cashed in 3 of those games.

Consider, too, historically in this series the Wolverines have had Michigan State's number in this in-state rivalry.

Since 2002, the Wolverines are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS against the Spartans, with one of those SU and ATS losses coming last year in that aforementioned nightmare season for Michigan.

Consider, too, in this series the road team has covered in 5 of the last 6 meetings and the Spartans are just 1-4 ATS their last 5 home games and have covered in just 11 of their last 34 games when installed as a home favorite.

The Wolverines, on the other hand, have covered in 7 straight games when installed as a road underdog of between 3 1/2 and 10 points and are 8-3 ATS their last 11 games when catching any points on the road.

Michigan will flirt with the outright victory and be in a position to pull it off. I'm not suggesting taking the Money Line on the Wolverines, but do take the points and take Michigan on the road in this one.



Virginia Tech at Duke
VIRGINIA TECH - When Virginia Tech and Duke get together, it’s usually not very pretty. Since these two started playing regularly in 2004, this has been a one-sided affair with the Hokies dominating the Blue Devils.

Since 2004, Virginia Tech has gone a perfect 5-0 SU against Duke, having covered in 3 of their last 4 meetings. In that stretch the Hokies have outscored the Blue Devils, on average, by 29 points per game.

Last year was the closest Duke has kept this annual meeting, losing 14-3 as a 14 1/2 point underdog. But consider that in this season the road team is 4-1 ATS and Duke has covered in just 13 of its last 45 home games.

Also, the Blue Devils have covered in just 11 of their last 38 games when installed as a home underdog and are 2-5 ATS their last 7 games in conference action.

Virginia Tech, on the other hand, has covered in 11 of its last 14 games when installed as a favorite on the road and is 28-11 ATS its last 39 games in conference. Also, don’t be afraid by the number the Hokies are laying as the team has covered in 5 straight games in which it has laid 10 1/2 points or more.

It’ll happen again as Virginia Tech cruises to another victory over the Dukies.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-3-09

Karl Garrett
40 DIMER - MICHIGAN STATE....10 DIMERS - UCLA BRUINS & TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS 40 DIMER - MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS - 12:00 PM

The key to this game, in my opinion, is Iowa and Illinois. Michigan will be looking ahead somewhat towards what will be a huge game in the Big 10 next week, while the Spartans have lowly Illinois on its schedule after this home tilt versus the Wolverines. Big edge to Michigan State there!

I watched the Indiana game last weekend; Michigan is very vulnerable through the air, Chappel had his way through the air which opened up the running game for the Hoosiers. The Wolverine secondary gives up 244 yards per game in the air.

The QB tandem of Cousins & Nichol have combined for 1,283 yards and 13 TDs to the much bigger, more talented wide receivers for Michigan State. Plus, Tate Forcier is hurt; he made the freshman mistake grimmacing so much at the end of the Indy game, and while he is listed as "probable", I don't expect him to be near 100%.

Keep in mind that Michigan has played ALL 4 of their games to date at home, this will be the 1st time they hit the road, and they are hitting the road against a State team that is searching for a signature win after losing their last 3.

Spartans hand the Wolverines their 1st loss!

10 DIMER - UCLA BRUINS - 3:30 PM

Pac 10 opener for the 3-0 straight up, and against the spread Bruins, and I like them plus the points to take this game right down to the wire.

UCLA is on a 3 game win, and cover streak in this series, and while the Tree is better equipped in this go'round to exact some revenge, I don't see it coming by a large enough margin to cover this impost.

This one as closing seconds win for one of these schools written all over it, and with the Bruins sporting a 5-2 Pac 10 dog mark their last 7, you can guess who I like.

Throw in the Uclans 13-5-1 spread mark their last 19 on-line games, and you can assume that Rick Neuheisel has another "live dog" on his hands in Palo Alto this Saturday afternoon.

Take the points in this one.

10 DIMER - TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS - 3:30 PM

I am going to keep this one very simple; It doesn't matter how many points you give New Mexico!

The Red Raiders are going to take out all their frustrations of the past 2 weeks (tough losses to Texas and Houston) on the Lowly Lobos.

New Mexico ranks 118th in total offense, and 107th in total defense. Check out this stat...over the past nine games, the Lobos starting QB Donovan Porterie has completed just one TD pass with eight INTs.

Red Raiders roll, and they roll in the most lopsided score of the day.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-3-09

Chris Jordan Saturday's winner ...


300? CENTRAL MICHIGAN

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-3-09

Ron Raymond

Western Michigan vs. Northern Illinois

The Huskies head coach won’t admit it, but they had their let down game last week vs. Idaho, after winning the week before against Purdue. In fact, it was the first win over a Big 10 team in over 21 years, so this my friends is your classic letdown situation. However, Northern Illinois have a nice offense and QB Chandler Harnish has a QB rating of 147.4 and he has a stud receiver in Landon Cox.

When any NCAAF team played as Home team as a Favorite - Playing on Saturday - During the month of October - Coming off a Loss over Western Athletic opponent - Coming off a 1 ATS lost; the Home Fave (Northern Illinois) is 13-4 SU and 11-6-0 ATS.

When any NCAAF team played as a 3.5 to 6.5 Underdog - During the month of October - Last 4 years - Coming off 1 over - Allowed more than 20 points against in back to back games; The Underdog (Western Michigan) is 3-11 SU and 4-10-0 ATS in this spot the last 4 years.

Take Northern Illinois.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-3-09

NC Totals
4* Over Fla Atl
3* Over Mia Ohio
2* Under Baylor
3* Under UCLA

MarQ
Tulsa
Ga.
Mich
UL Monroe