10-10-09

**Mr. IWS** · 10-10-2009, 06:38 AM

Re: 10-10-09

Northcoast Sports's Pick Pack - Vegas Insider
Premium Plays
Matchup: Michigan St at Illinois
Time: 12:00 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Illinois (+4.5 -110)
Line Source: ATLANTIS
Posted on: October 7, 2009 @ 1:48:09 PM EDT

ILLINOIS Over Michigan St - Illinois snapped a 9 game series losing streak in their last meeting (‘06, 23-20 +26!, 390-259 yd edge) and after that game the teams fought when the Illini planted a flag in Spartan Stadium. Michigan St is 4-1 ATS in the series but 3-7 ATS after facing rival Michigan. The Spartans survived a 4Q swoon to beat their rivals B2B for the 1st time S/’65-67 thanks to an int in OT for a 26-20 win in which they outrushed the B10’s top running offense (193-28). Both Spartan QB’s played again LW with Cousins (200 ypg, 62%, 7-4 ratio) seeing the majority of the snaps until inj his ankle and Nichol (94, 52%, 5-2 ratio) directed the game winning drive. MSU is #88 in pass eff D all’g a league worst 244 ypg (63%) with a 12-3 ratio. IL only trailed Penn St 7-3 at the half before the Lions scored 21 straight and outrushed the Illini 337-131. B10’s least eff passer QB Williams became IL’s total off leader but struggled again and Zook indicated a change could be made. IL is #105 in pass eff D (234, 66%, 6-2 ratio). IL has been outscored 102-26 vs FBS tms TY with all 3 TD’s scored in the 4Q of blowouts but the Illini awake from their slumber to pull the stunner.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Matchup: Boston College at Virginia Tech
Time: 12:00 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Virginia Tech (-13 -110)
Line Source: M Resort
Posted on: October 7, 2009 @ 1:48:09 PM EDT

VIRGINIA TECH Over Boston College - In their last visit here, BC upset #8 VT on National TV with 2 Matt Ryan TD’s in the final 2:11 for the come-from-behind win. LY BC overcame 5 TO’s to beat #17 VT 28-23 in the reg ssn at home, but has dropped two straight ACC Title games to the Hokies. BC is 6-2 as an AD and VT is 6-11-1 as a HF. VT QB Taylor is avg 174 ypg (54%) with a 6-1 ratio. RB Williams is 8th in NCAA in rushing yds (575, 5.2). BC QB Shinskie, in his 2 games as a full-time starter, avg 216 ypg (60%) with a 5-1 ratio. RB Harris has 449 rush yds (4.7). Both teams stand at 4-1. VT does have the edge on both sides of the ball (off #37-66, def #18-35) but while BC has shown progress under Shinskie, however, this will only be their 2nd road game and the Eagles had just 54 yd and 4 FD in their first road game (vs Clemson) this year.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Matchup: Vanderbilt at Army
Time: 12:00 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Army (+11 -110)
Line Source: ATLANTIS
Posted on: October 7, 2009 @ 1:48:09 PM EDT

ARMY Over Vanderbilt - Last met in ‘91. Vandy is in an SEC sandwich but needs a win to have any shot at being bowl eligible. Vandy HC Bobby Johnson is very familiar with the option from his days at Furman. Army is 2-9 as a HD. Vandy held Miss, who had been avg 36 ppg, to just 23 despite being banged up on D. QB Smith is avg 140 ypg (47%) with a 2-4 ratio. Vandy, despite being banged up at RB, is avg 195 ypg rushing led by RB Norman with 336 (6.7). Army has lost 4 straight ATS and allowed a late FG to Tulane and missed a game winning 37 yd FG with :12 left. Army was held to a season low 222 yds despite QB Steelman having a career high 95 yds rush. Army is avg 231 ypg rush, led by RB Mealy who has 303 (8.4). Vandy has a big edge on def (#29-77) which should allow them to shut down Army’s upset hopes.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Matchup: Auburn at Arkansas
Time: 12:00 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Arkansas (+3 -110)
Line Source: BODOG
Posted on: October 7, 2009 @ 1:48:09 PM EDT

ARKANSAS Over Auburn - Ark is just 2-4 SU vs Aub and hasn’t beaten AU at home S/‘01. Ark (+16’) trailed 20-10 late 3Q LY, but scored 15 pts in the final 18:02 to win 25-22 as they had a 416-193 yd edge. Ark RB Smith rushed for 176 yds (5.0) in that gm. The visitor is 6-1 SU and 4-0 ATS. This is the 2nd straight tough road gm for Aub. Aub led Tenn 23-6 in the 4Q and UT scored a TD with no time left to make the gm seem closer than it was (26-22). Ark crushed TX A&M 47-19 LW winning a 3H LPS for us. Aub OC Malzahn was the OC at Ark in ‘06 under Nutt but left for Tulsa after ‘07. Ark (+7) upset Malzahn’s #19 undefeated Tulsa tm LY 30-23 but Tulsa had a 528-435 yd edge. Both tms have quick-striking offenses and thin defenses, so points will be plentiful and this could go down to the wire.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Matchup: Oregon at UCLA
Time: 3:30 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: UCLA (+6.5 -110)
Line Source: BETUS
Posted on: October 7, 2009 @ 1:48:09 PM EDT

UCLA over Oregon - UCLA dropped their 1st game of the season at Stanford last week giving us and the Bruins may see the return of starting QB Prince (139 ypg, 56%, 2-2 ratio) here after missing the last 2 gms with inj. #2 QB and LY’s starter Craft (195 ypg, 60%, 1-1 ratio) has played well in his absence. In a gm that featured as many punts as FD’s (22), the Bruins held the once high-powered Duck offense to just 148 ttl yds in the 16-0 victory at the Rose Bowl in ‘07. LY UCLA was +19’ on the road but only lost 31-24 as UO QB Masoli struggled in the passing game completing just 5 of 19 for 42 yds (UO did rush for 323 yds, 7.0).The Ducks continued their run with a convincing home win vs WSU a week after their domination of Cal. The visitor is 12-5 ATS in this series and the Ducks are 6-2 SU but UCLA is 13-4 as a HF and 17-5 ATS at home vs conf opp’s. While Oregon comes in off a pair of impressive wins this is their first road trip since getting held to 152 total yds at Boise. The Bruins defense is better than the Broncos.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Matchup: Bowling Green at Kent
Time: 3:30 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Kent (+4 -110)
Line Source: PEPPERMILL
Posted on: October 7, 2009 @ 1:48:09 PM EDT

KENT ST Over Bowling Green - BG is 7-1 SU in this series and has won 4 in a row in Dix Stadium. Kent St is 4-18 SU on HC and 2-4 ATS as a HD. BG is 4-1 as an AF but 0-1 TY as we won a 3H LPS on Marshall (+3) over BG. Kent St is off a 31-15 loss at Baylor as a 21 pt AD. RB Terry, who replaced Jarvis (med RS), had his 2nd straight 100 yd gm and leads with 212 (7.9). True Fr QB Keith is avg 147 ypg (60%) with a 4-3 ratio despite only 1 start. BG lost to Ohio as a 4th down pass was deflected in the EZ with 1:40 left. BG had 26-13 FD and 474-419 yd edges but allowed a PR TD. QB Sheehan had a career high 390 yds and is avg 291 ypg (64%) with a 7-2 ratio. RB Geter leads with 291 (4.5). BG has the off edge (#83-116) but KS has the def edge (#93-114) although BG has played a much tougher schedule (#22-105).

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Matchup: TCU at Air Force
Time: 7:30 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: TCU (-9.5 -110)
Line Source: HILTON
Posted on: October 7, 2009 @ 1:48:09 PM EDT

Tcu Over AIR FORCE -The Horned Frogs know how to shut down the option as they have limited the Falcon rush attack to 146 yds below their ssn avg the last 3 years! LY AF was held to 161 yds with 111 coming on 2 runs and TCU won 44-10 (-19’) at home. Last time here, AF overcame a 14 pt 4Q deficit in their 20-17 OT win in one of Patterson’s toughest losses of his career. AF is #2 in the NCAA avg 292 ypg rush (4.6) but TCU’s rush D is allowing an NCAA best 47 ypg (1.8). LW TCU was in a flat-spot against SMU and it showed with the Frogs struggling early (trailed 7-6 late 2Q). Meanwhile, AF played its most important game of the year LW and lost in OT to Navy and will be in a flat spot TW. TCU is 6-2 ATS vs the Falcons and will remain undefeated with a comfortable win.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Matchup: Texas-El Paso at Memphis
Time: 8:00 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Texas-El Paso (-2 -110)
Line Source: LEROYS
Posted on: October 7, 2009 @ 1:48:09 PM EDT

Utep Over MEMPHIS - UTEP was favored in both previous meetings (‘05 and ‘06), but the Miners were upset in both, losing by 13 ppg. UTEP has a bye on deck and is off a huge 58-41 upset win over #12 Houston. The Miners pounded UH on the ground as RB Buckram ran for a career high 262 yds (8.2!) and he now has 560 rush yds (7.2) after rushing for just 348 yds all LY. QB Vittatoe continues to struggle and is avg just 183 ypg (53%) with a 3-5 ratio. Although the numbers may not show it, the D may actually be improved. UTEP has faced 3 potent offenses (KU, TX and Hou), but held Buf and NMSt to just 297 ypg. Mem is off to a 1-4 start and HC West is feeling some serious heat. The Tigers must convert better in the RZ as they have settled for 5 FG’s in 15 redzone att’s. They did get RB Steele back LW, but he only rushed for 22 yds (2.8) vs UCF. Neither team can afford a loss and we expect a tight contest with the team that makes fewer mistakes getting the win.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Matchup: GA Tech at Florida St
Time: 8:00 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Florida St (-2.5 -110)
Line Source: CAESARS
Posted on: October 7, 2009 @ 1:48:09 PM EDT

FLORIDA ST over Georgia Tech - Last year Bowden and the Noles lost to GT for the 1st time S/’75 (12-0 prior). The last 6 have been decided by less than 6 ppg. GT has never won in Tallahassee (0-6). LY FSU’s offense ran 9 plays from scrimmage in the 1st 15 mins for -18 yds and GT led 31-20 but lost QB Nesbitt to injury. FSU had a 2nd&gl from the 3 but fmbl’d into the EZ with :45 left losing 31-28 (+2’). This is GT’s 3rd road game in 4W. GT’s last trip here was ‘03 and they almost pulled a major upset losing 14-13 (+23’). Nesbitt is avg 142 ypg (51%) with a 3-2 ratio and has 363 rush yds (3.6). FSU is just 7-17 ATS as a HF with 2 outright losses TY. QB Ponder is avg 285 ypg (67%) with a 4-1 ratio. Surprisingly, GT comes in at 4-1 while FSU is 2-3 (0-4 ATS as a fav). GT has a solid offensive edge (#10-45) but FSU has the slight defensive edge (#31-41) and needs to circle the wagons.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Matchup: Fresno St at Hawaii
Time: 11:00 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Fresno St (-9 -110)
Line Source: HILTON
Posted on: October 7, 2009 @ 1:48:09 PM EDT

Fresno St over HAWAII - UH has won 6 of the L/8 SU (3 in a row) and also 6 of 7 in Honolulu. FSU’s lone win during that stretch was a 27-13 (-13) victory here in ‘05. UH is 8-3 ATS in WAC HG’s and the visitor has covered the L/4 gms and is 3-1 SU. UH QB Alexander (358 ypg, 65%, 9-4 ratio) is OFY (knee) which is a huge blow meaning Moniz (73 ypg, 50%, 0-0 ratio) will need to step it up. He will have WR Salas who leads the NCAA with 150 rec ypg on 26 grabs (23.1). LW vs LT, UH was held without a TD for the 1st time S/’04 (62 gms). The road-weary Warriors spent 17 of 23 days away from home (3 consec AG’s) while Fresno is fresh off a bye and battled-tested having already played two BCS AG’s where they went nose-to-nose with Wisky (34-31 2OT, +7’) and Cincy (28-20, +7). FSU RB Mathews is 2nd in the NCAA in rushing with 592 yds (6.8, 5 TD’s) and despite having a stable of RB’s, HC Hill said he wants to give Mathews the ball as much as possible as he wants him to be the team’s “premiere back.” With Hawaii having our #111 rush D this game looks one-sided while on the other side of the ball Fresno’s D rates the edge vs Hawaii’s backup QB.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Member Plays
Matchup: Ball State at Temple
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Temple (-13 -110)
Line Source: HILTON
Posted on: October 7, 2009 @ 1:48:09 PM EDT

TEMPLE Over Ball St - First meeting. Ball St is 14-3 as an AD but is on their 3rd road game in 4 weeks. LW Ball St led Toledo 23-14 and after falling behind took a 30-29 lead with :42 left but all’d a 51 yd TD pass with :27 left. BS was outgained 479-310. The Owls have covered 3 straight and have won 2 straight MAC gms. LW they outgained EM 365-280, holding EM to just 50 yds rush (1.7). BS QB Page is avg 149 ypg (52%) with a 5-6 ratio but threw for 234 yds (2-1 ratio) LW. RB Lewis, who led the MAC LY has just 209 yds (3.0). Temple QB Charlton is avg 185 ypg (51%) with a 4-4 ratio, while their top 2 RB’s are Pierce with 364 (6.3) and Griffin with 198 (4.3). While the offenses are close, Temple has a HUGE def edge (#53-108) and that should have the Owls starting 3-0 in MAC play. The Owls defense is clearly perceived as the MAC’s finest and by already holding Buffalo to 13 and E Mich to 12 points they will now overmatch the Cardinals with their depleted O-line.

**Mr. IWS** · 10-10-2009, 06:43 AM

Re: 10-10-09

Doc Sports
“The Magnificent 7”

6 Unit Play. #99 Take Fresno State -9 ½ over Hawaii (Saturday 11 pm ESPN Gameplan) Top Game of the Weekend. Lets take a look at Fresno State first! They are currently 1-3, losing to Wisconsin and Cincinnati on the road, and Boise State at home. Hawaii is 2-2 on the season, beating Washington State and Central Arkansas. Last week they got hammered by Louisiana Tech, 27-6. Note in that game they rushed for negative seven yards. There is just no comparison to the talent of opponents that each team has faced.

The Bulldogs will enter this game with revenge, losing 32-29 in overtime last year at Bulldog Stadium. In this game, they outgained the Warriors 522-342 but were done in by six turnovers. Now the Bulldogs return 15 starters with a punishing ground game playing against a defense that returns just two starters. Throw in the fact that Hawaii QB Greg Alexander is out for the season with a knee injury and back-up Brent Rausch is out with a broken finger. Fresno had last week off while the Warriors were making their longest flight of the season to Louisiana Tech.

Just want to mention that when reviewing the Bulldogs yardage thus far in 2009, it appears that they will be able to tear through this weak defense. Fresno must salvage their season here in order to get back on track for a bowl bid. Other then the fact that this game is being played in Hawaii, absolutely nothing else favors the Warriors. This may be the biggest gift of the season. No Rainbow for Hawaii, as the rout is on. Fresno State 42, Hawaii 10.

5 Unit Play. #88 Take Minnesota -3 ½ over Purdue (Saturday 12 pm ESPN 2) Top Big 10 Selection. This is an important game for the Gophers as they and we are coming off a very disappointing performance last week against Wisconsin. But because of their loss, the oddsmakers have given us a very favorable line when they host Purdue this week at TCF Bank Stadium. The Gophers beat a similar Purdue team last year, 17-6, in West Lafayette and the 2009 Purdue squad is really hit hard by injuries. They will enter this game having lost four straight games, all of which have come by seven points or less. That really takes it toll and the schedule gets much more difficult in the future. Purdue led 21-3 last week at home against Northwestern before giving up 24 unanswered points and suffering the defeat. That kind of a setback carries over, especially when going on the road. The favorite has dominated this series, covering nine of the last ten meetings and I expected the Gophers to be laying a touchdown. Laying just half of that is too good to pass up, as Minnesota gets back on track and we collect big in the process as well. Minnesota 31, Purdue 20.

5 Unit Play. #16 Take Ole Miss +5 ½ over Alabama (Saturday 3:30 pm CBS) Top Underdog Play. The Rebels have lost five straight to the Tide and the last four have been by four points or less. Have to like that stat when getting this many points with a home underdog. Ole Miss is in good hands under Coach Houston Nutt. You can bet that he will have his team ready emotionally and they have the guns to pull the upset, returning 16 starters from 2008. The Rebels are flying under the radar, as they already have a loss in 2009 at South Carolina.

I like the fact that Alabama is playing the second of back-to-back road games, as they were in Lexington last week. If you are a stat player, Coach Houston Nutt is 6-0 ATS as a home dog playing against an opponent with a winning percentage of .800 or better. In my opinion, the talent between these two teams is equal and taking the points at home is the only call. The last four has seen the winning margin four points or less and I will call it again, but the Rebels pull the straight-up victory. Ole Miss 24, Alabama 20.

4 Unit Play. #44 Take Under 48 ½ in Wisconsin @ Ohio State (Saturday 3:30 pm ABC) Top Totals Play. The Badgers hurt us last week in their victory at the Twin Cities. However, they have yet to see this kind of defense. The Buckeyes have the best defense in the Big Ten. QB Scott Tolzien has played outstanding thus far in 2009 but playing in Columbus is a completely different than what he has seen thus far. A punishing defense and a hostile crowd will present challenges he has yet to experience. I do not expect Wisconsin to be able to run the football and that will create problems in the passing game.

As for Ohio State, it is more of the same with a strong defense and an average offense. QB Terrelle Pryor is just an average passer and he does not have a strong running game with the departure of Beanie Wells to the Arizona Cardinals. When you add it all up, this looks to be low scoring and I expect Wisconsin to struggle to reach double digits. The UNDER gets the call. Ohio State 28, Wisconsin 10.

4 Unit Play. #54 Take UCLA + 3 ½ over Oregon (Saturday 3:30 pm ABC) This is another home underdog that has an excellent chance to win straight-up. The quarterback position is a real question for both teams. QB Kevin Prince is expected to be back for the Bruins while QB Jeremiah Masoli may be out for the year with a knee injury. The Ducks also have a couple of other injuries and illnesses that have hit the club this week. Look for Coach Neuheisel to get this squad back on track after a loss to Stanford. QB Prince will give the Bruins a shot in the arm with his passing ability. This is Oregon’s first road game since the opener at Boise State and this really looks to be a low scoring game. Got to love the homer getting points. UCLA 20, Oregon 17.

4 Unit Play. #69 Take Connecticut +8 over Pittsburgh (Saturday 3:30 pm ABC) One of the best unknown coaches in the country is Randy Edsall at Connecticut. I Like his style and with a week off he will have a great plan of attack for the Pittsburgh Panthers. UCONN lost last year, 34-10, but one has to wonder how that happened when looking at the yardage. Pittsburgh had only 228 yards. However, five turnovers did them in. This same defense should be more than the Panthers can handle in 2009. QB Cory Endres has looked good for the Huskies and he has the weapons to put points on the board. I certainly have to give the coaching edge to Edsall over Wannstedt, especially with the revenge factor. Would like to call the upset, but the Panthers will win by a whisker. Pittsburgh 24, Connecticut 21.

4 Unit Play. #86 Take LSU +7 ½ over Florida (Saturday 8 pm CBS) Not sure if LSU is as good as their record would indicate. However, this team is talented and will have the desire to pull the upset against the No. 1 team in the country. No question that Florida deserves their ranking with an outstanding defense, but one has to wonder how the offense will react with QB Tebow questionable with a concussion. Over the years I have won a high percentage of games playing a team that falls into this category: two undefeated teams, playing for the conference lead, backing the home underdog. The stat that really opens my eyes is the Tigers record when playing night games in the last decade. They are 43-4 straight-up and will enter Saturday having won their last 32 night games at Tiger Stadium.

With or without Tebow, the Gators are in for a WAR! I really like the fact that I am getting over a touchdown with a team that has won 32 straight home night games. Now make it 33! LSU 28, Florida 24. Note: Bet this game early if you can, the line will go way down in Tebow is ruled out.

5 Unit Play. #118 Take Under 41 in Atlanta @ San Francisco (Sunday 4:05 pm Fox) The 49ers have been one of the most surprising teams in the NFL, currently sitting a 3-1 and just a hail mary pass away from being 4-0. Much of the success of the 49ers can be attributed to a strong physical defense led by their head coach Mike Singletary. They have allowed just 13.5 points per game and held two of their opponents under 11 points. Atlanta will enter with a strong running game led by Michael Turner and that also bodes well for playing the under, since the clock will keep running for most of the game. I expect neither team to reach the 20s in scoring and we will not worry who comes out on top in this game by a field goal. Instead we will easily collect with the under. San Francisco 17, Atlanta 14.

4 Unit Play. #106 Take Carolina -3 ½ over Washington (Sunday 12 pm Fox) The Panthers have yet to win a game in 2009, but are coming off a much needed bye week and I expect them to right the ship this Sunday hosting the Redskins. The Redskins have played a very easy schedule thus far and are only 2-2 including a loss to the Detroit Lions. QB Delhomme has been terrible thus far, but I still think he has more ability then QB Campbell. Washington is just 1-4 ATS in their last six road games (1 tie) and failed to put away three of the worst teams in the league (St. Louis, Detroit, Tampa Bay) the last three weeks. The now face a minor step up in class, as the Panthers finally put it together and play a complete game for 60 minutes. Carolina 24, Washington 16.

4 Unit Play. #124 Take Seattle -1 over Jacksonville (Sunday 4:15 pm CBS) The Jaguars will make a long cross country flight to take on the Seahawks in the Pacific Northwest Sunday at Qwest Field in Seattle, WA. The Hawks have been in a bit of disarray again this season with the injury to QB Matt Hasselbeck and as of this writing he is questionable to play on Sunday. Either way, the Hawks will win and move to 2-3 on the 2009 season. Jacksonville has not traveled this far since 2005 and Qwest Field is one of the noisiest venues in the entire league. The Hawks put pressure on QB David Garrard and I am not sold on the Jags receivers with their ability to beat teams deep. Seattle wins in a match-up of similar team where home field is the major deciding factor. Seattle 27, Jacksonville 17. Note: Line my change on this game with QB Hasselbeck's status, we still recommend the pick.

4 Unit Play. #126 Take Over 46 in Indianapolis @ Tennessee (Sunday 8:20 pm NBC) One might figure that the Colts would be favored by more points in this game, but the Titans still warrant respect even though they enter this game at 0-4. Much of this is due to the fact that the Titans are not same team on defense with the loss of Albert Haynesworth. They are giving up 27 points per game and that does not bode well when playing the high-powered Indianapolis Colts led by All-Pro QB Peyton Manning. The Colts are averaging 26 ½ points and will enter this one at LP Field with an unblemished 4-0 record. This is a primetime game and I do not expect the Titans to get blown out and thus in order for them to keep pace, they must be able to match the scoring from Manning and company. They do and thus this one goes easily over the posted number. Indianapolis 27, Tennessee 24.

Strong Opinion Plays:
#54 Take Under 46 ½ in Oregon at UCLA
#84 Take Under 48 in Michigan at Iowa
#116 Take St. Louis +10 over Minnesota

**Mr. IWS** · 10-10-2009, 06:44 AM

Re: 10-10-09

Dave M@linsky Free Play 4* (#372) South Carolina -9.5

Rich Brooks and his Kentucky team are in one of the worst scheduling set-ups of the season this week. Not only are they off of back-to-back games against Florida and Alabama, the toughest two-game cycle any team will face, but they are also going on the road for the first time (the win over Miami O. at Cincinnati was a short bus ride, and there were far more Wildcat fans in attendance), to take on one of the freshest opponents they will face this autumn. To make matters worse, Brooks has gone 0-4 SU and ATS against Steve Spurrier in their head-to-head encounters, losing to the spread by 38.5 per game in the process. But that is not all, which is what makes this one easy to get to at the reduced tariff the markets have created.

As if the scheduling dynamics were not enough for Kentucky, those back-to-back physical drubbings of the past two weeks have taken a particular toll on defense. They will have to make this trip without their best defender, CB Trevard Lindley, a second-team All-American LY, and also his partner at the other CB spot, Paul Warford. Not only does that force true FR Martavious Neloms and SO Randal Burden into the starting lineup, but it also means untested SO Taledo Smith and RS FR Cartier Rice will have to play major roles, since South Carolina is going to spread the field with multiple WR’s to attack those very weaknesses. With Stephen Garcia and the Gamecock offense growing by the week, the holes in the Wildcat defense can be readily exploited.

It is not any easier for Kentucky offensively. South Carolina held N. C. State, Georgia and Mississippi to a combined 689 yards on only 41 first downs, with the Gamecocks fielding an aggressive group with the kind of team speed that makes driving the field difficult. And that defense will have plenty of energy here. While Kentucky has faced not only the two best teams in the nation the last two Saturday’s, but also two of the most physical, South Carolina will be playing for only the second time in 16 days, with the only game in that span a walk-over vs. South Carolina State. Without the ability to move the chains and control the ball the Wildcats force their own defense back onto the field too often, magnifying those weaknesses at CB, and we expect both physical and mental fatigue to become factors in the second half as this game breaks wide open.

**Mr. IWS** · 10-10-2009, 06:44 AM

Re: 10-10-09

Strike Point
3-Unit Play. #310 Take Illinois +4 over Michigan State (Saturday 10/10 - 12 p.m. EST)

Fading the Spartans here after a big win over Michigan. Outside of that win last weekend, Spaty has looked pretty bad and their defense hasn't stopped anyone. That bodes well for an Illini team needing a breakout game and looking for a spark with the newly inserted Eddie McGee at quarterback. MSU is turnover prone and I expect a couple more mistakes in this one. We take the points and back Illinois with their backs against the wall.

5-Unit Play. #366 Take UCLA +3.5 over Oregon (Saturday 10/10 - 3:30 p.m. EST)

With Nate Costa now starting for the Ducks, I cannot see Oregon facing the Pac 10's best defense and having much success in the air. They will get some yards on the ground, but the OU lacks the offensive weapons to win the battle of the Bruins' defensive unit. In Westwood UCLA is too tough. They bounce back with a victory here in league play.

4-Unit Play. #355 Take Wisconsin +16 over Ohio State (Saturday 10/10 - 3:30 p.m EST)

Taking the points here, as not only is this too high for a Badgers team that has just won all year, but OSU has not looked impressive this season. USC showed the blueprint for moving that ball against the Buckeyes and that was on the ground. Wisky has the ability to establish a rushing game and make this game competitive throughout. No more than a touchdown scoreline either way.

4-Unit Play. #329 Take Alabama -5 over Mississippi (Saturday 10/10 - 3:30 p.m. EST)

Ole Miss continues to be lackluster. Alabama has really shown me a lot. And this 'Bama defense hits hard. Such an impressive defensive unit, and I really like them here against a Mississippi offense that just has not gotten anything going compared to all the hype on them coming into the season. Right now I just don't see how the Rebels switch on the light just like that. The Tide roll by at least a touchdown.

5-Unit Play. #343 Take Stanford +1 over Oregon State (Saturday 10/10 - 7 p.m. EST)

Well look who's in first place in the Pac-10. Yep, the Cardinal, and its not by smoke and mirrors. Stanford is a legit conference threat and they keep it going against an Oregon State team that never seems to know when they are going to bring their game. Stanford has the running game and a nice big arm in quarterback Andrew Luck to build a balanced attack and keep scoring the points. I see over 400 yards on offense and at least 24 points, and more importantly a win on the road.

4-Unit Play. #389 Take UTEP -3 over Memphis (Saturday 10/10 - 8 p.m. EST)

I never expected this Miners team to look at poor on offense as they did in the first month of the season. But they certainly made up for it with a shocking win over Houston. And they didn't just win, but straight up dropped the hammer on the Cougars. So that being said, I would be even more shocked if UTEP resorted back their offensive struggles. Hopefully that victory last week will be the spark to get this team going the rest of the season. Certainly a letdown spot against Memphis, but I see a better effort more than I do a drop-off in this C-USA tilt.

5-Unit Play. #340 Take Washington +3 over Arizona (Saturday 10/10 - 10 p.m. EST)

Washington may have lost its last two games after their upset of USC, but last Saturday against Notre Dame, the Huskies looked very good. Tough loss in OT, however I think they showed exactly what I wanted to see after laying an egg two weekends ago against Stanford. I like the points at home, but we're backing the side we like to win the game. Jake Locker continues to thrive in the passing game and overall Washington is putting it together. Still not buying what Arizona is selling. They lack quality wins and have have both running backs banged up. U of A cannot beat Washington with just one dimension on offense. With a big home field advantage in Seattle, it's dogs over cats in this one.
Week 6 System Totals

2-Unit Play. Take Houston/Mississippi State 'Under' 68.5 (Saturday 10/10 - 12:30 p.m. EST)
2-Unit Play. Take Georgia Tech/Florida State 'Under' 54 (Saturday 10/10 - 8 p.m. EST)
2-Unit Play. Take Michigan/Iowa 'Under' 48 (Saturday 10/10 - 8 p.m. EST)

Here's our third weekend of system totals. Week one was a winning success. Our second attempt was ruined by several tough beats. Our 'under' in the Penn State/Illinois game saw 35 points scored in the final ten minutes and a bad TD in the final minute, as well as another tough one in the ACC. We still feel like we were on the right side that week and push forward here. Three good spots and we like them to produce a profit.

**Mr. IWS** · 10-10-2009, 06:44 AM

Re: 10-10-09

Purelock 5-0 :

florida state

**Mr. IWS** · 10-10-2009, 06:47 AM

Re: 10-10-09

Norm Hitzges
NCAA
Double Plays

· Oklahoma State – vs Texas A&M

· Oklahoma -25 vs Baylor

· Fresno -9.5 vs Hawaii

· Ole Miss +4.5 vs Alabama

· Temple -13.5 vs Ball State

· UConn +7.5 vs Pittsburgh

Single Plays

· Iowa State -16 vs Wisconsin

· Wyoming +10 vs New Mexico

· Indiana +7 vs Virginia

· Arizona -3 vs Washington

· Arizona State -21 vs Washington State

· UCLA +3.5 vs Oregon

· Arkansas +2 vs Auburn

· Utah State -11 vs New Mexico State

· SMU +6.5 vs East Carolina

· Colorado +32.5 vs Texas

· North Texas +6.5 vs ULaLa

**Mr. IWS** · 10-10-2009, 06:47 AM

Re: 10-10-09

B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G
4* on Oregon State +1(-110 betus)

Oregon State got the signature win they needed last week by beating up on Arizona State 28-17 on the road. Now they return home ready to take the next step, a place where the Beavers have been very tough to beat this decade. Oregon State 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in home games after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game since 1992. The Beavers are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons. Oregon State is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons. Head coach Mike Riley always has his team playing at their best this time of the season. It's not by chance, either, this guy is one of the most underrated head coaches in the country. Stanford is 1-1 on the road, losing at Wake Forest and beating Washington State, which was expected of course. OSU is finding their stride and will not be denied at home Saturday. Take Oregon State and the points.

**Mr. IWS** · 10-10-2009, 06:47 AM

Re: 10-10-09

B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G
4* on New Mexico State +12.5(-110 Sia)

New Mexico State should not be catching double-digit points at home against a 1-3 Utah State squad Saturday. NMSU has put together 2 wins this season, including a big road victory at New Mexico. This team is improved under new head coach DeWayne Walker and they won't be folding against the Aggies Saturday. Utah State is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater. This team shouldn't be favored this heavily against anyone. New Mexico State is 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game. The underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings in this series. Take New Mexico State and the points.

**Mr. IWS** · 10-10-2009, 06:48 AM

Re: 10-10-09

B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G
5* Gators/Tigers CBS Saturday Night Showdown on LSU +8(-109 at 5dimes)

With the questions surrounding Tim Tebow, the clear play is on LSU Saturday. Even if Tebow does play, he won't be on top of his game. He'll be very rusty and worried about getting hit after suffering a concussion. LSU just keeps finding ways to win, and though they have not blown anybody out, you can't fault the Tigers for that. The Tigers have had this one circled on their calendars for a year, and when playing at home down in Baton Rouge, the place will be rockin' Saturday night. LSU's defense is ranked 16th nationally after allowing 14.8 points/game through four games, and this unit gives them a great chance to win outright Saturday. Charles Scott showed he could carry the load last week in their 20-13 win at Georgia, rushing for 95 yards and two touchdowns. QB Jordan Jefferson was calm under pressure, and that experience at Georgia last week will give him a lot of confidence heading into this SEC showdown. The Tigers are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0. The underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings in this series. Take LSU and the points.

**Mr. IWS** · 10-10-2009, 06:48 AM

Re: 10-10-09

B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G
5* Yellow Jackets/'Noles ESPN 2 Eruption Florida State -2.5(-110 at bookm)

Florida State players will take it upon themselves to win this one for Bobby Bowden. This is only the second time in Bowden's tenure with the Seminoles that his team has started the season 2-3. He is getting drilled in the media this week, and now it's up to the players to right the ship against Georgia Tech Saturday in support of one of the best head coaches of all-time. FSU hosts Georgia Tech, a team they lost to 28-31 on the road last season. Now that they are more familiar with Paul Johnson's system, look for the 'Noles to stop his triple-option attack this week. Tech rushed for 288 yards on Florida State last year and still only managed to win by a field goal, so don't expect the Yellow Jackets to put up those kind of numbers on the ground again in the 2009 meeting. FSU is 6-0 SU in their last 6 home games vs. Georgia Tech and 12-1 SU in all meetings with the Yellow Jackets since 1992. So you can see how rare that loss really was to the Yellow Jackets last season. FSU is only giving up 3.0 yards/carry at home this season, so they are stopping the run very well. Their weakness is in their pass defense, but Georgia Tech only averaging 13 passing attempts/game. All factors favor the Seminoles, most importantly the motivational factor to win this one for their head coach. Take Florida State and lay the points.

**Mr. IWS** · 10-10-2009, 06:48 AM

Re: 10-10-09

GoodFella | CFB Side Sat, 10/10/09 - 12:00 PM

double-dime bet 374 Arkansas 3.0 (-110) Bodog vs 373 Auburn

GoodFella | CFB Side Sat, 10/10/09 - 8:00 PM

double-dime bet 390 Memphis 3.0 (-110) Bodog vs 389 UTEP

GoodFella | CFB Side Sat, 10/10/09 - 10:00 PM

double-dime bet 339 Arizona -3.0 (-110) Bodog vs 340 Washington

GoodFella | CFB Side Sat, 10/10/09 - 8:00 PM

double-dime bet 354 Florida St. -2.5 (-120) Bodog vs 353 Georgia Tech

**Mr. IWS** · 10-10-2009, 06:48 AM

Re: 10-10-09

greg shaker

triple-dime bet 354 Florida St. -3.0 (-110) Bookmaker.com vs 353 Georgia Tech Analysis: NCAAF: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Florida State Seminoles - Florida State -3 -105 | Unit Value: 3 Unit "CIRCLE THE WAGONS"
Game Date: 10/10/2009
Note: This game is available at +100 at some books. A nightime game in Tallahassee and Bobby Bowden has his back against the wall after two not so sporty losses at BC and South Florida. This is when his team performs the best and with all of the press on his ass about a number of things, his squad is likely to respond with a big win. They certainly of capable with a load of talent on the field and they proved they could play the big boys with a solid win at BYU. Ga Tech comes off a physical game at Miss State and they rely heavily on the run game. Reports from Florida tells me that Bowden and crew are going to clog up the line and make GT beat them through the air. This will be the 3rd Road Contest for the Yellow Jackets and in the previous 2 they have been outgained on offense. This setting Saturday Nite is not an easy one and especially on "Circle the Wagons" Nite. I am going to lay these small points

**Mr. IWS** · 10-10-2009, 06:49 AM

Re: 10-10-09

Jeff Scott Sports

5 UNIT PLAYS

SUN BELT GOY

FIU -3.5 over WESTERN KENTUCKY

The Hilltoppers have been outscored by 28.8 ppg and that includes a 21 point home loss to FCS foe Central Arkansas. That's pitiful. FIU may be 0-4 on the year but have taken on a tougher schedule than WKU and have been outscored by just 14.3 ppg in those games. FIU is clearly the stronger team in this one and my Power Ratings call for them to win by 15. I agree.

OKLAHOMA -25 over Baylor

The Sooners are 8-0 ATS atv hjome before BB road games and 9-1 ATS off a SU & ATS loss vs opponent off a DD win. Oklahoma has outscored their home opponents by a 109-0 count and will take on a depleted bears squad that may be down to their 3rd string QB again in this one. Last week they did beat lowly Kent State 31-15, but were still outgained by 50 yards in the contest. Now they take on an angry OU squad, off a loss, that may have Bradford back. Look for the Sooners to flex their muscles in this one and come up with a 30+ point win.

4 UNIT PLAYS

Marshall -4 over TULANE

After allowing Va Tech 52 points the Herd have since allowed just 16 ppg in their next three games and will take on a struggling Tulane offense that has scored just 11 ppg in their 3 games vs FBS teams. Marshall's offense is capable of scoring some points and will face a Tulane defense that has allowed 34.8 ppg on the year. Marshall has won 2 of their last 3 since the Tech game, including a road win over a memphis squad that is better than this Tulane team. Look for Marshall to continue their improved play as they win this one by double digits. My Ratings have the Herd by 13.

3 Team 10 Point Teaser-- Ole Miss +15, West Virginia PK & BYU -7

3 UNIT PLAYS

TEMPLE -13.5 over Ball State

BSU is 1-10 ATS as road dogs off BB SU losses vs an opponent off a SU ATS win. The Owls come in with one of the better defenses in the MAC and will be taking on a BSU team that is depleted along the OL. Temple has been dormats for years and this is their best team in a long time so look for them to go 3-0 in the MAC with ease here.

ILLINOIS +4 over Michigan State

2 UNIT PLAYS

Houston/ Mississippi State Under 68.5

PITTSBURGH -8 over Connecticut

UCLA +3.5 over Oregon

1 UNIT PLAYS

Georgia/ Tennessee Under 46.5

Wisconsin +16.5 over OHIO STATE

3 Team 6 Point Teaser--- Alabama Under 51, Pittsburgh -1.5, Washington +9

**Mr. IWS** · 10-10-2009, 06:50 AM

Re: 10-10-09

Street Rosenthal

3-0 last night, 10-2 the last 12 picks!

*200 Mississippi +5
Every trend I have on this game signals an Ole Miss win! This is a great spot for
Ole Miss today. Bama hasn't covered a spread in Oxford in decade. This is the
biggest game of the year for the Rebels and look for Ole Miss to lay it all on the
line in this must win match up. Let's look at some trends. Alabama is 0-7 ATS since
1980 in games 1-6 and previous opponent was Kentucky. Alabama is also 1-10 ATS since
1980 game 6 and opponents previous game was away. The League is 0-8 ATS (-10.2 ppg)
since October 27, 2007 as a favorite vs. Mississippi. Bama is also 0-4 ATS (-8.5
ppg) since October 15, 2005 vs. Ole Miss. Don't forget, Nut has yet to lose a game
at Ole Miss by more than 7 points!

*200 Miami Ohio +19
Northwestern rallied last week and spent a lot of energy. This game is Miami Ohios
5t road game this year. They have played the likes of Kentucky, Cincinnati and
Boise State. Yes, they are 0-5 and probably going to be 0-6 after today. However
the trends support a cover. Let's look at some of those trends. Miami Ohio is 10-0
ATS since 1990 in game 6 and their opponent scored more than 14 points in their last
game. Miami Ohio is 9-0 ATS since 1990 in game 6 as a dog and their next opponent
conference is vs a MAC team. NorthWestern is 0-7 ATS since 1995 as Home Fav and
opponent previously faced a team from the MAC conference. Look for an easy cover
today as Miami Ohio shows up to play.

*200 Houston +3
Houston was embarassed by UTEP last weekend and I look for them to come out today
and show some pride. Miss St is one of the weakest teams in the SEC and will
struggle to keep up with the speed of this explosive Houston team. Was Houston
caught in a classic trap week? Probably so, and I look for them to rebound nicely
today. In the last meeting, the Cougars enjoyed a 28-16 win against the Bulldogs in
Starkville during the 2005 season. It was UH's second straight win and their sixth
win in the last seven games in the series. The Cougars have enjoyed success on the
road against Mississippi State, posting a 4-3 record in Starkville. I look for
Houston to take the ball to the air against a weak Miss St secondary and get us the
cover today.

*300 South Carolina -9.5
The Gamecocks are no surprise to early season success as they hold a 16-5 record in
the first 7 games of over the past 3 seasons. The Gamecocks must finish the year
like they have started. The Kentucky Wildcats have yet to score a conference
victory this season. The Wildcats scoring offense ranks next to last in the SEC
averaging 25 points per game and their scoring defense ranks 3rd worse allowing 26.5
points per game. The trends are not good for Kentucky today. Let's take a look at
them. Kentucky is 1-8 ATS since 1982 away in game 5 and they lost their previous
game. Kentucky is 0-5 ATS (-6.6 ppg) since December 31, 2007 after a loss at home

*300 Florida State -3
The trends aren't the only thing I am wagering on today. FSU is playing with
revenge in mind today. Tech got the best of them last year and FSU will want to
even that score. FSU will also play hard for their coach tonight as he has taken
some bashing in the media al week. Let's look at some trends that favor our pick.
Ga Tech is 0-7 ATS since 1982 in game 6 and away and they won their previous game.
FSU is 4-0 ATS (+8.5 ppg) since October 02, 1993 vs. Ga Tech after an away game.

*500 San Jose St -4
Anytime we see 25% of the public on a team and the line moving in their favor I am
going to make it a big play. SJS has dominated this series and the Vandals are on a
3 game win streak. This streak will end here today as SJS will prove just to much
to handle. SJSU is 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 as a home favorite of
3.5-10 points.

10-10-09

10-10-09

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment