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triple-dime bet 386 Iowa -8.0 (-110) betus vs 385 Michigan
Analysis: Stan is Betting the IOWA. Stan notes that the public will be betting the MICHIGAN as they look attractive as a road dog getti‡ng over a TD. Fact is Vegas made this game over a TD because they know Michigan is not as good as they appear and that the public will be betting Michigan which is a mistake. Iowa will be the toughest defense Michigan has faced all year and it will slow down that Michigan Offense. Expect Iowa to pound the ball at Michigan and wear them down in the second half. Stan has Iowa winning this game by 14 -17 points. TAKE IOWA as STAN'S TRIPLE DIME CONFERENCE WISE GUY GOY and make them a TRIPLE DIME PLAY.
4 Unit Play. #904. Take the Colorado Rockies -125 over the Philadelphia Phillies (Saturday @ 6pm est). I think this is a great opportunity to fade Ol' Pedro. Martinez has given up six runs in his last seven innings. The Rockies are one of those teams that are just magical at home and they have the ability to pull things together like they did last season. It is so tough to get into the playoff mode of pitching if you have not been pitching throughout the season. It is tough to ask Pedro to step into this light and do well given that he has not pitched for a good portion of the season or has struggled to pitch near the end of the season coming into this game. I like the Rockies as a playoff favorite as well as they are 4-0 when they are playoff favorites, 8-2 when favored at home and Phillies are 0-4 when they face a pitcher with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Hammel has been one of the most solid pitchers for the Rockies and certainly he is primed for this game. If Hammel can win this game on the road against the Phillies I believe he will certainly be game at home when the Rockies fan pack cheering him on.
1.5-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 8.5 L.A. Dodgers at St. Louis (6 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 10)
0.5-Unit Play. Take St. Louis (-160) over L.A. Dodgers (6 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 10)
OVER 52 SMU vs EAST CAROLINA GAME AT 8
XXXX PLAY TOP TOTAL
The SMU Mustangs defense has proven to be a very porous but scoring unit, as evidenced by their nation-leading 12 interceptions so far on the season & 17 takeaways and have forced multiple turnovers in four straight games. However, if it weren't for those takeaways, the team could very well be starting at an 0-4 record entering this game. SMU ranks 111th in the nation in total defense (400.5 ypg) and 100th in scoring defense (31.25 ppg). What makes those 12 interceptions so impressive is the fact that the front-seven hasn't been able to generate a ton of pressure . East Carolina had a great week & will really put up the points
50* Play St. Louis (-165) over LA Dodgers (MLB PLAY)
Joel Pineiro has won 11 of the last 13 games when the total posted is between 9 and 9.5 runs and he has also won 8 of the last 11 games when working on five or six days of rest. Joel Pineiro is 2-0 vs. Los Angeles over his career with an ERA of 3.38 and has an ERA of 2.87 at home this season.
Sport: College Football
Game: Michigan Wolverines @ Iowa Hawkeyes - Saturday October 10, 2009 8:00 pm
Pick: 5 units ATS: Iowa Hawkeyes -7.5 (-110)
Michigan is a much-improved team, but their miracle finish vs. Notre Dame at home has changed this team into something they are not, at least in the eyes of the public and oddsmakers. We saw a hint of it last week as they opened as a favorite and by kickoff were a four-point underdog. They went on to show the truth in a loss at not-so-highly regarded Michigan State. After four games at home to start the season, last week was their first road game and they must do it again on the road this week. The biggest hole for Michigan is on defense. Eliminating uncompetitive games vs. Eastern Michigan and Western Michigan, the Wolverines have allowed 31 points per game. They face an Iowa team that has the defensive prowess to shut down the Wolverines offense, and that simply puts added pressure on a defense that has trouble getting stops. We were on Iowa vs. Penn State as a 5-unit play two weeks ago when they won as a 10 point dog. I liked them so much in that game because of their defense. The same applies here. The Hawkeyes won that game by holding Penn State (who has better offense than Michigan) to just 10 points on the road. And they were able to generate 21 against a Penn State defense that is much better than Michigan's. So, if Iowa can win in Happy Valley, they should have no problem here at home vs. a weaker team. The Hawkeyes have delivered a 37-17 ATS mark in their last 54 at home. They are 10-2 ATS as a favorite from 3.5-10 points and 8-1 ATS after 5+ straight wins under Kirk Ferentz. Michigan is 2-6-1 ATS the past few years as a Big Ten underdog. And, Rich Rodriguez is just 1-10 ATS vs. teams that allow14 or fewer points per game! I like Iowa in this one.
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