10-12-09

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section (regular or premium)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-12-09

Al DeMarco
Monday's Play

10 Dime - New York Jets



This game is priced around 2 1/2, although there are a few 3's offshore as I post it very late Sunday night. If you have either 2 1/2, 3, or 3 1/2 in this contest, go ahead and buy the half point down in each circumstance.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-12-09

Strike Point

NFL - Week Five

2-Unit Play. #427 Take New York Jets -1.5 over Miami (Monday 10/12 - 8:30 p.m. EST)

The Jets should get a major boost with Braylon Edwards, but more so I think Mark Sanchez will bounce back with another efficient effort and work towards getting his team back in the win column. After some bad turnovers New York will dial back the plays and should focus on getting Thomas Jones and Leon Washington set up with the running game. The ground attack and more defense will be enough on Monday night.
Can'tPickaWinner is offline Reply With Quote

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-12-09

B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G
6* Widow Wiseguy Jets/Dolphins Monday Night MASSACRE on Miami Dolphins +2(-110 at spbook)

This is Miami's chance to get back in the division race. The Dolphins picked up their first win of the season last week in a dominant 38-10 home win over Buffalo. Their previous home game they should have beaten the Colts after holding the ball for 45 of the 60 minutes, but Peyton Manning would not allow his team to lose and he made the most of the 15 minutes the Colts actually had the ball, coming away with a 27-23 road win. But Mark Sanchez is no Peyton Manning, and he was awful last week on the road against the New Orleans Saints. Sanchez threw a pick-6 to Darren Sharper and fumbled in the end zone to give New Orleans two touchdowns. These are two power running teams, with both having quarterbacks that don't have to do much more than manage the game. That's why the advantage lies with the Dolphins because they run the ball better and stop the run better than the Jets do. Miami is averaging 183 rushing yards/game and 5.0 yards/carry. New York is averaging 130 rushing yards/game and 4.0 yards/carry. Advantage Dolphins. New York is allowing 100 rushing yards/game and 4.2 yards/carry. Miami is allowing 61 rushing yards/game and a superb 2.9 yards/carry. Advantage Dolphins again. The Jets are just 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) vs. poor passing teams averaging 150 or less passing yards/game since 1992. The numbers don't lie folks, and this game will certainly come down to which team runs the ball and stops the run better. Take Miami and the points.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-12-09

Seabass steam 100 Jets/Miami under
200 CFL Calgary 1 p.m.
10 Jets

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-12-09

Steven Budin-CEO MONDAY'S PICK NEW YORK CREW

25 DIME RELEASE

Jets


Note: This line is mainly -2 1/2 with an occasional -3 as I release it on Sunday evening.

If your price is -3, go ahead and buy down the 1/2 point to -2 1/2 to insure you get a win should the Jets only win by three.

If this lines moves to -3 1/2 as kickoff approaches on Monday, obviously you should buy down the 1/2 point to -3 to make sure you get a push if the game results in a three-point New York win.

Take it from a former bookmaker and the guy who fathered the offshore sportsbook industry: we're using the power of money - our bulging bankroll - against the bookmaker in these cases.

Why not buy a little extra insurance at a few cents on the dollar to protect your investment? As CEO of a multi-million dollar company I can tell you it's the right move, just like I knew it was the right move when as a bookmaker I saw smart players doing the same thing when the opportunity presented itself.

[sobenkoma]

Re: 10-12-09

Maddux Sports

#428 - NFL - 3 units on Miami +1.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-12-09

FANTASY SPORTS GAMETIME

50* Play Philadelphia (-105) over Colorado (MLB PLAY)

Philadelphia has won 3 consecutive games when playing in the 4th game of a playoff series and they have also won 8 of the last 11 games when playing on a Monday. Cliff Lee has won 4 consecutive games vs. NL West Division Opponents and he is 2-0 vs. Colorado over his career with an ERA of 1.13.

NHL Hockey
25* Play Washington (-165) over New Jersey
25* Play Chicago (-165) over Calgary

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-12-09

Dave Malinsky 10/12

Jets/Dolphins First Half Special

UNDER 18,MIAMI DOLPHINS -vs-New York Jets
4* #427 NY JETS/MIAMI First half
Under In a game that essentially has a pair of rookie QB?s going head-to-head under extreme pressure (yes, Chad Henne is in his second season, but he is a rookie in terms of game experience), we have a good idea how Rex Ryan and Tony Sparano want to play this one ? try to eliminate early mistakes that can give anything away, and make the focus forcing the opposing offense into to provide the easy opportunities. That gives us a First Half flow that we can work with, especially with 17?s out there as ?win? numbers. It is not as though we are asking for an unusual tempo anyway from these two ? both have had more runs than passes, with neither wanting the QB to carry more of a load than is necessary. But that tightens even more here. Mark Sanchez had a disastrous outing at New Orleans last week, throwing three interceptions and losing a fumble, with two of those turnovers being returned directly for TD?s. Ryan will try to ease him into this one, and with Thomas Jones and Leon Washington providing an able run balance he can attack that way. The other side of the equation brings more than meets the eye off of last week?s results. Yes, the Dolphins hammered Buffalo 38-10, creating the impression that all was fine in Henne?s debut as starter. It wasn?t. The passing game produced an anemic 3.1 yards per attempt, with a stunning count of six sacks in 28 attempts. That latter number can not be emphasized enough. Despite never trailing at any time, and holding a lead of at least 14 points over the final 35 minutes of play, when play action fakes were a part of almost all pass plays, Henne was sacked as many times in those 28 attempts as the Bills have picked up in 149 attempts in all other games. Now Henne has to go up against not only one of the most complex defenses in the league, but also one that gets the boost of Calvin Pace returning to the lineup (suspension served), adding another pass rushing threat. The Jets have only allowed one offensive TD in the first half of a game this season, and that is despite facing the likes of veterans Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Matt Schaub and Kerry Collins. They can not only throw things at Henne that he is not ready for, but remember how Ryan completely shackled those Dolphin ?Wildcat? sets in the playoffs last January. So why not the full game Under? Because at some point the trailing team is going to have to open up, and with Sanchez and Henne already having thrown ?Pick 6?s? this season we would not want the early flow to become muddle by late mistakes. Our focus will be the first two quarters, with the pleasure of cashing the ticket at halftime.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-12-09

Teddy June


MNF MIAMI

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-12-09

4 Unit Play. #926. Take the Colorado Rockies -112 over the Philadelphia Phillies (Monday @ 6pm est). The Rockies look to avoid and stave off elimination today and who better to have on the mound than Ubaldo. He has come through for them time and time again and fell short in Game 1 against Cliff Lee. By the way, give Charlie Emanuel credit for starting Happ instead of Martinez because I think Pedro would have gotten shelled in game 2. Having said that, it makes me irritated because the Rox more than had their chances to win that game. Nevertheless, Ubaldo comes off a five run performance against the Phils and I believe he will have a strong bounce-back at home today. Time and time again after disappointing start, he comes back with a strong start and even his lackluster performances are rare. Ubaldo has put together 8 of 10 quality starts and I see him coming through in a very strong effort this evening. Also, Cliff Lee pitched a complete game gem vs. the Rockies in his last start for his post-game debut but I don't see him accomplishing that once again today. The Rockies don't give a rat's tail about Lee or his reputation but want to survive and take this into game five. Lee is no saint either as leading up to the Colorado game he had given up 10 runs in 11.2 innings losing both to the Astros and Brewers. When Lee is taken to the limit the game is likely to go over the posted total as the Phillies typically give him a few runs of support anyway. In the same token, I expect the Rox to put up their fair share of runs against Lee and I think the 8 line can go over today. Heck, a 4-4 ballgame alone helps push the game over as well as I like the over as well because the Over is 6-0 for the Phillies in their last six road games and Over is 5-0 for the Rockies when they are favored by this margin. The Rockies are also 6-1 in Jiminez's last seven home starts and the home team is 12-2 with Kulpas behind the plate the last 14 games vs. Colorado.

4 Unit Play. Take Over 8 between the Colorado Rockies vs. the Philadelphia Phillies (Monday @ 6pm est). Please check the write-up above.



IC
Good luck,

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-12-09

Doc's Sports

Baseball

3-Unit Play Take #925 Philadelphia Phils -110 over Colo Rockies (6:07pm)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-12-09

Tony Salinas
Tony's Diamond Highrollers
Monday, October 12, 2009
26*
Phillies {C.Lee}/Rockies {U.Jimenez} UNDER 8½ Runs
6:07 PM -- Coors Field
Mostly cloudy. Winds blowing out to left field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 50.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-12-09

Trushel 20* Miami

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-12-09

Craig Davis Monday's Lineup
50 Dime --- JETS (Buy the 1/2 point if your line is -3 or -3 1/2. This way we are protecting ourselves in the event the game is decided by a field goal, by getting the win if we get it at -2 1/2 or the push if it's -3.)

I'm urging you to place your wager on this selection as early in the day as you possibly can because I have a feeling it could creep up to -3 or even -3 1/2. When people realize just how lopsided this line is, they'll probably bet it up at least a half point. Let me give you a quick overview of how I see this game, then I'll break it down for you a little more.

Basically, I absolutely love what Rex Ryan has done for this Jets defense. They are starting to remind me a little of the 2000 Baltimore Ravens. No proven QB, a solid running game and a defense that has held every offense they've played in check thus far. They'll blitz you from everywhere on the field and have only allowed 3 offensive TDs in four games.... that's impressive. For Miami, despite the fact they ran rough-shod over Buffalo's porous run defense, they still have a QB with less experience than New York's Mark Sanchez and a defense that hasn't figured out how to pass defend yet. It's pretty simple when you think about it, as I'm just not convinced Miami can score by just running the football.

If Chad Pennington were the starting QB I might reconsider this selection or dial it down a little, but I absolutely have no faith in Chad Henne. Do I think he can be a good QB in time? Yeah, sure. But he's not there yet and I'm not about to back a team that can't throw the ball. Henne is completing around 57% of his passes (24 of 41) and has been sacked 7 times because he's one of the least mobile QBs you will come across this year. So you combine a QB who's been sacked that many times in a game-and-a-half with the fact the Jets LOVE to blitz and you could have the recipe for at least a few interceptions from this Jets defense.

New York knows exactly what the Dolphins want to do... they want to run the football with Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, control the clock, and win a low-scoring game. If the Jets get up early it's going to force Miami into a situation in which they have to put the game in Henne's hands. That's NOT a good thing for Miami, but it's a great thing for us. I mean, if the Jets can keep Drew Brees and Tom Brady in check, what's to make me think Henne can beat them? It just won't happen.

I also realize you might be looking at NY QB Mark Sanchez and scratching your head as to why I could want to back a rookie QB on the road. Well, because until last week he wasn't playing like a rookie. Sanchez had 4 TDs and 2 INTs through three weeks vs. Houston, New England and Tennessee before faltering somewhat last week in New Orleans. Rex Ryan won't ask Sanchez to win this game for the Jets, he'll simply ask him to manage this game and let his defense do most of the dirty work... the recipe for success for many years in Baltimore.

The Jets also have a little unfinished business to settle with the Miami, as it was the Dolphins who knocked the Jets out of the playoffs by beating them in Week 17, 24-17. Before that, New York had won 5 straight and 8 of 9, including three straight in Miami. And with New England and Buffalo losing Sunday, the Jets can pull a full game ahead of the Patriots in the AFC East with a win tonight... and that's really all we're asking them to do. Defense wins championships, but it also helps set your offense up with good field position... which I expect a bunch of tonight.

The Jets are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 on the road as a favorite of 3 points or less and when they struggled moving the football in their previous game (250 yards or less), they've bounced back to cover an amazing 8 of their last 10 times. The Dolphins, meanwhile, are known to struggle when coming into a game off a blowout win, covering just 2 of their last 10 in that spot. It's probably going to be ugly early, but ultimately the Jets will settle down as their defense keeps them in it in the first half. And notice, I didn't even mention Braylon Edwards in this entire analysis because I don't believe he's going to be a factor. The only thing he's going to do is take some of the focus off Jerricho Cotchery and Dustin Keller... which is good for Sanchez (he admits... he loves throwing the ball to Cotchery). Jets win this AFC East battle, 23-10.