10-31-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-31-09

Mike Lineback

4* Georgia Tech / Vanderbilt Under 47.5

Vanderbilt Under this total in all games this season, except vs. Rice (36-17), who are giving up an average of 45.5 ppg on season (#120). Vandy haven’t scored more than 10 pts in SEC play (10, 10, 7, 3 & 9) & managed only 13 vs. Army (in OT??) & 16 vs. Boston College. In other words, Vanderbilt can’t score, but do have respectable defense. Army runs similar offense (played on 10/10), albeit, not on same level of Georgia Tech, but nonetheless, gives Commodores some extra preparation for Tech’s powerful running game. Yellow Jackets improving defense, more than capable of shutting down hosts tonight and should be able to chew up big chunks of clock with their running game. Vandy 14-3-1 Under the Total L18 at home.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-31-09

Freddy Wills

Take Florida Atlantic -2.5 (3.5 Dime OE play)

I'm going with FAU for the third week in a row, the first time we had them as a POD, last week we gave you them as dogs in 20 point easy win as a free pick. This week it's our oddsmaker Error as Vegas is still not giving this team respect despite the 2-1 record inside the Sun Belt. The 2-4 record on the season has many worried, but this team has cleaned up its act and early season trouble all the way to being the 11th overall offense in the nation. This team struggled with turn overs, and penalties especially in the red zone which cost them points. They won the last two weeks on the road and now they return home to look to show their home fans just what kind of a different team they have become.

They will play MTSU which has solid offensive ranks and should be able to move the ball against FAU's improving defense, but then again they have not played any strong defense, as they have an average ranked defense opponent at 83. Defensively MTSU has struggled too so I expect them to have their hands full with the red hot FAU team. This reminds me of a game where MTSU visited Troy earlier this year. FAU now has similar ranks that Troy has offensively and defense that game resulted in a loss @ Troy 7-31. Look FAU to continue to improve on defense and for their offense to keep picking up the steam. They have well over 1100 yards in the last two games and Alfred Morris is coming off his career best 181 yards. Rusty Smith is red hot as well and a NFL prospect to boot! Take the red hot Owls to continue!


Take Kentucky -3 (5-Dime POD)

I'm going with Cobb and Kentucky to win by a TD over Miss State. Kentucky has faced a much more challenging schedule in my opinion particularly the defenses they have faced. Miss runs the ball well with Dixon, but they have yet to be tested as they have faced an average rush defense ranked 70th. Kentucky's front 7 is better than getting credit for and they'll have a big game on Saturday as they won't have to worry about the pass as Miss State is ranked 105th and that's vs. a 45th ranked defense on the season. Kentucky is ranked 22nd int he nation in pass defense. One on one coverage should be enough and allow them to concentrate on stopping the run.

Mike Hartline was lost for a knee injury and here comes Kentucky's MVP Randall Cobb to runt he wild cat. He played some QB last year and will continue to do so the rest of the season it looks like. The Wildcat has landed a new nickname in Kentucky it's called the WildCobb, and I don't think Miss State will be able to stop it on Saturday. Kentucky has an above average offensive line and they know how important this home game is as it will automatically give them a bowl game. The schedule is favorable ahead so if they can win this game they can get a very nice bowl game which is what the goal is. Guard Christian Johnson said, "This is one of hte biggest games of the season, if not the biggest." This offensive line opens up holes and protects the passer when they do drop back to pass as they have allowed just 7 sacks.

Once the offense gets a lead early and forces Miss State throw the ball it should be all but over. Kentucky won't be looking past Miss State as they remember a similar scenario two years ago. Miss State came into Kentucky and dominated Kentucky which ruined Kentucky's shot at a great bowl game. That makes this game that much more important to this team.

At the end of the day both of these teams are pretty even, and it will come down to the teams two stars. Anthony Dixon for Miss State, and Randall Cobb for Kentucky. Now we have seen Anthony Dixon be stopped, but because Cobb can do it in all different types of ways passing, rushing, receiving and kick returns I don't think you can really stop him, but only contain him. Cobb is averaging 8 yards per carry and is a threat to throw the ball out of the wild cat. Cobb carrys this team to another bowl birth.


Take Wash State +28 -120 Buy 1/2 Point 3.5 Dime Play

Like I said last weekend I'll continue to fade Notre Dame until proven otherwise this team is the most over rated team in football in my opinion. Charlie Weis is a shit coach and is bad as a coach as he is taking care of his body.. joking of course. But in reality the PAC-10 is much better than the Big Ten the opponents that Notre Dame has been facing. Pete Carrol has been quoted stating that the Pac-10 is the best it has been since he's been at USC. yes this is the last placed team... BUT They are battle tested and have faced better defenses than Notre Dame has faced, and much better defenses than Notre Dame itself. With that said Notre Dame has no business being a 4TD favorite at a neutral field in my opinion. Washington STate may be one of the worst teams in the league but you wont notice on Saturday as they have a lot to play for in this situation. QB Jeff Tuel looked sharp a week ago throwing for 354 yards against CAl a much better pass defense than Notre Dame ranked 117th. With that said Wash State's only bright spot matches Notre Dames weakness. Take the 4TDs


Take Oregon +3.5 3-Dime Play

This is not the sexy pick, but Oregon is the play here once again USC's shut down defense has looked troublesome as of late, but suddenly they have looked vulnerable. They let Notre Dame look like hte best team in the country in the 4th quarter, and Oregon STate totaled 482 yards a week ago. USC really struggles with mobile QB's and Jeremy Massoli should and will have a big game running the ball. I expect a game down to the wire, but it will be defensive, and I expect Oregon to be able to run the ball enough to win this game out right and finally take the reigns of the Pac-10!

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-31-09

Jim Krug@r

3* Action Oklahoma State (9.5 / -110) vs Texas

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-31-09

VR

956 PHI (+105) Bodog vs 955 NYY
Analysis:
*** MLB GM 3 WORLD SERIES 3* GAME OF THE WEEK ***

HAMELS over Pettitte

This reminds me of the exact situation last year, when the Phillies returned home tied 1-1...and were installed as the GM3 dog...Because as soon as the Yankees Won Gm2...just like with TB in '08...the "Public Perception" changed again...and the Phillies were discarded as having a chance to win this whole thing...

Only problem is, that nobody told the Phillies because they came out and won Gm3 last year...and that's exactly what I expect them to do this year...

Last game„, I touched on stats...and historical probability, so rather than cover those factors again for this Game...I'll instead get right to the Bottom Line...Because the handicapp I did, along with my "Projection"...also supports a Phils win...

Bottom Line..."Value"...And we are getting plenty of it based on how invincible the Yanks have become again, after winning Gm2...That was a Game I expected the NYY to win, and that's why it was our biggest bet so far in this Series...

But, I just can't pass up the Phillies as a Home Dog...And they don't deserve to be one based on my model and just as importanly, based on historical probability which shows us that Teams in the Phillies position have Won "68%" of Gm3's in the MLB Finals and "59%" in MLB Playoffs overall...

This team has not lost 2 straight in any Playoff Series the L/2 Years...and they have the experience to know just how big GM 3 is...The Yankees have not played in this ballpark this season or last, so that's even another advantage...

I look for the Phillies and Hamels to come out with a chip on their shoulders and a lot of confidence getting to play in front of their home crowd...

Let's go ahead and grab the +105 or better, and back the Home Team Phillies to Win Game 3 of the World Series...and get us our "13th" Straight World Series Winners...dating all the way back to the '07 Series...VR