11-1-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-1-09

CONFIDENTIAL KICK-OFF

11 *NEW ORLEANS over Atlanta
*NEW ORLEANS 44 - Atlanta 21

Lost amid the off season hoopla of acquiring All-Pro TE Tony Gonzalez was the fact that Atlanta saw its defense ravaged by free-agent defections, forcing a significant re-tooling project for the stop unit by HC Mike Smith. And last week’s one-sided loss at Dallas indicates the Falcs might no longer be able to camouflage those deficiencies, especially with injuries piling up (CB Brian Williams the latest casualty) and the DL lacking a true run-stuffer after stout rookie DT Peria Jerry’s season-ending knee injury and Grady Jackson’s FA departure. Those shortcomings will likely be exploited by Drew Brees and red-hot New Orleans bunch that maintained its perfect SU and spread mark (6-0!) after overcoming 21-point deficit at Miami. And even the upgraded Saints “D” sharing in the fun with 2 more TDs last week (that’s now 5 this season!).

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-1-09

TIM TRUSHEL

Best Bet: Tennessee -3

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-1-09

DONNIE BLACK

Best Bet: Green Bay -3

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-1-09

ERIN RYNNING

Best Bet: San Francisco +11

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-1-09

ROB VENO

Best Bet: Over 41 Broncos

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-1-09

Kelso Sturgeon

200 unit NFL GOY

Arizona -10

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-1-09

Spartan

GBP 2
NYG 3
Freebie is TEN

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-1-09

Tim Trushel

20* Green Bay
regular / Carolina
regular / over Carolina

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-1-09

Black Widow

6* Widow Wiseguy 2009 NFL "BLOOD BATH" OF THE YEAR on Baltimore Ravens -3(-115 at SIA)

This is the week that Denver goes down in flames. Yes, we've bet against Denver en route to their 6-0 record, but we are not going to get burnt again here Sunday. The Ravens are the best team that Denver has faced all season, and this will be their toughest game by far. The Ravens are coming off back-to-back heartbreaking losses to the Bengals and Vikings. Both of those games came down to the wire, and both they lost in the final seconds. In fact, the all 3 of the Ravens' losses this season have come down to the final seconds when you throw their 21-27 loss at New England in there. This is one pissed off team, and they will come out very hungry Sunday. The Ravens have had a bye week to steam over their recent losses, and you can bet this team will be ready to go when they hit the field at home Sunday. Meanwhile, Denver has also had a bye week to listen to the media and soak in all the compliments. We have no doubt the Broncos come out flat this weekend, and the Ravens pounce on them early. This one will be over by halftime folks, and that's why it's our 2009 "BLOOD BATH" of the year in the NFL. The Ravens are outscoring their opponents by 14.0 points/game at home this year. The Broncos are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. The Ravens are 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. The home team has won 7 of the last 8 meetings in this series. Take Baltimore and lay the points.


5* Wiseguy NFC Sunday Afternoon PARLAY (Total) on Panthers/Cardinals OVER 41(-104 at 5dimes)

We also love this OVER Sunday as both team score plenty of points to push the Total OVER 41 points. The reason the books have set this total so low is because Arizona has been playing great defense, and Carolina has had a hard time scoring points. But the Panthers are having no problem moving the ball as they put up over 320 yards of total offense against the Bucs two weeks ago and over 420 yards of total offense against the Bills last week. Look for Carolina to finally start putting the ball in the end zone Sunday against a team they cannot wait to get revenge on following their loss to the Cardinals in the playoffs last year. Carolina will be 100% focused for this game, and it will show with their execution offensively. Arizona will get their points, but the defense will take a step back this week after back-to-back dominant performances against the Seahawks and Giants the last two weeks. In the last 5 meetings in this series, Carolina and Arizona have combined to score 44 or more points 4 times. The last 2 meetings saw 46 and 50 combined points, respectively. Carolina has scored 20 or more points in 5 of their last 6 meetings with Arizona. The OVER is 6-1 in the Panthers' last 7 road games. The OVER is 12-4 in the Cardinals' last 16 home games, and the OVER is 5-1 in Cardinals last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Take the OVER 41 points


5* Wiseguy NFC Sunday Afternoon PARLAY (Side) on Carolina Panthers +10(+100 at SIA)

This is a revenge game for the Panthers after getting embarrassed by the Cardinals at home in the playoffs last year. Look for Carolina to come out with their best effort of the season Sunday. The Panthers keep shooting themselves in the foot with turnovers, but we feel that everything will come together this week as they come out very hungry and focused to beat Arizona. Yes, the Panthers lost 9-20 to Buffalo last week, but they never should have lost that game. Carolina outgained the Bills 425-167 in the loss, not numbers you would expect to see with the Panthers losing by 11 points. This team is very explosive offensively when they don't kill themselves with turnovers. They'll get back to running the football which is what they do best, and using timely play-action passes to keep the Cardinals off balance. This is a big letdown spot for Arizona after 3 straight wins over the Texans, Seahawks and Giants. They will also be thinking about how they dominated Carolina last year in the playoffs, and they'll feel like they only need to show up to win Sunday. Carolina will take advantage and snatch away this game early. Carolina has won 3 straight road games over the Cardinals dating back to 2003. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Take the Panthers and the points.


4* on Browns/Bears UNDER 40(-108 at 5dimes)

Cleveland simply cannot score, but they have been playing solid defense which will keep this one UNDER the number. The Bears have hit a wall offensively, scoring a mere 12 points/game in their last 2 games, both losses to the Bengals and Falcons. Look for Chicago to keep struggling against Cleveland's defense, but also look for the Bears to get back on track defensively after giving up way too many points and yards the last two weeks. This defensive unit will take it personal and hold the Browns to 10 points or less Sunday. That shouldn't be a problem considering Cleveland is scoring just 10.3 points/game this season, including 7.2 points/game on the road. The Bears are 41-18 UNDER (+21.2 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse since 1992. Chicago has been committing too many turnovers lately which have led to easy points for their opposition. The Bears will put an emphasis on taking care of the ball this week, which will lead to more conservative play-calling and a heavy dose of Matt Forte as they try and get back to running the football, which is always what they have done best. Chicago is simply using their "new toy" too much in Jay Cutler, and he is making too many mistakes. The conservative play-calling Sunday will be a big reason why this one stays UNDER the number. The Bears are 15-5 UNDER (+9.5 Units) vs. terrible teams - outscored by 10+ points per game on the season since 1992. The UNDER is 19-9-1 in Cleveland's last 29 games overall. The UNDER is 5-1 in Bears last 6 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Take the UNDER 40 points here.


4* on Seattle Seahawks +10(-110 at SIA)

The Seattle Seahawks are showing excellent value Sunday against the Dallas Cowboys. First off, Seattle is coming off their worst loss of the season to the Arizona Cardinals and they have had an extra week to prepare for Dallas coming off a bye. The Cowboys put a lot of emphasis on last week's home win over the Atlanta Falcons, saying it was their make-or-break game. That only means that they will have an emotional letdown following their biggest victory of the season. As a result of both team's performances in their last game, this line has been inflated and we'll take advantage with the double-digit dog Seahawks. Seattle is primarily a passing team, and the Cowboys are terrible against the pass. The Seahawks are throwing for 220 passing yards/game and completing 61.1% of their passes. Dallas is allowing a 61.5% completion percentage and 238 passing yards/game. That means the Seahawks should have no problem moving the ball through the air. The Seahawks are 21-10-1 ATS in their last 32 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points. The Seahawks are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. The Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take Seattle and the points.


4* on New York Jets -3(off at Bodog)

It's revenge time for the Jets after losing to the Dolphins 27-31 on Monday Night Football just 3 weeks ago. They lost on a last-second touchdown by Ronnie Brown after playing their hearts out for 4 quarters. The Jets did whatever they wanted to offensively, but could not get the key stops they need down the stretch to win on the road. Look for this Jets' defense to "man up" Sunday and take it upon themselves to shut down the Dolphins. This defense responded well following that loss, and they'll take another step forward Sunday. This New York defense allowed just 13 points in regulation to Buffalo and only 296 total yards in their 13-16 overtime loss. Mark Sanchez gave away that game with 5 interceptions. The Jets then held Oakland scoreless on the road last week, giving up just 263 total yards and forcing 4 turnovers. The Jets are back to playing the way they were meant to play, which is running the football and playing sound, aggressive defense. New York has rushed for 318 and 316 yards in their last 2 games, respectively. Expect a heavy dose of Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene as the Jets run wild on this Miami defense. The Dolphins are emotionally spent right now after blowing a 24-3 lead at home to the Saints last week to lose 46-34. They won't be recovered in time to meet the effort they get from this hungry Jets' squad Sunday. Miami is 11-27 ATS (-18.7 Units) after a 2 game home stand since 1992. The Dolphins 2-14 ATS (-13.4 Units) versus excellent rushing teams - averaging >=150 rushing yards/game since 1992. Take the Jets and lay the points.


4* on Texans/Bills OVER 41(-110 at betus)

This is a very low total for a Texans' game, a team that owns one of the best offenses in the league but also one of the worst defenses. Look for the Texans to light it up again offensively behind the league's leading passer in QB Matt Schaub who has thrown for 2,074 yards and 16 touchdowns to just 5 interceptions. Houston will be up against a banged-up Bills' defense that gave up 425 yards of total offense to the Panthers last week. That makes back-to-back games the Bills have given up more than 400 yards of total offense. The only reason they didn't give up more points is because the Jets and Panthers committed 10 turnovers combined! Houston won't be settling for field goals or making the same mistakes, instead they will be converting touchdowns and extra points all game long. Buffalo has to get their offense going this week against a Texans' defense that is allowing 25.3 points/game on the road and 362 total yards/game away from home. Houston gives up 5.6 yards/carry on the road, and the Bills should find huge plays in the running game Sunday which will set up big plays in the passing game to T.O. and Lee Evans. Houston is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons. The Texans are 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons. Take the OVER 41 points here.


4* on Raiders/Chargers OVER 41(-110 at Bodog)

The Chargers will take care of most of this OVER on their own, just like they did last week against Kansas City. Nobody can deny that San Diego has one of the best offenses in the league, but they are hurting defensively with several key injuries, most importantly to DT Jamal Williams who has been lost for the season with a Tricep injury. That leaves the Chargers soft up the middle, which is why they have given up nearly 140 rushing yards/game this season. Oakland is primarily a running team, and they should be able to move the ball on the ground very effectively Sunday. But the Raiders will not be able to tame this San Diego offense that has put 23 or more points in every game this season. The Chargers score 26.8 points/game on average this year, while the Raiders allow 25.3 points/game overall and 27.2 points/game on the road. In their first meeting of the season back in Week 1, the Chargers won 24-20 as both teams did basically whatever they wanted to offensively. The Chargers put up 366 total yards in the win while the Raiders put up 317 total yards in the loss. Expect the Chargers to put up at least 35 points Sunday, while the Raiders score enough to push this one OVER the number. San Diego has scored 34, 28, 21 and 34 points in their last 4 home meetings with Oakland, respectively. In fact, the Charges have scored 21 or more points in their last 10 overall meetings with Oakland. The 24 points they put up in their first meeting with Oakland this year was their lowest point total in their last 5 head-to-head meetings with the Raiders. They are averaging 28.8 points/game in those 5 meetings. The OVER is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings. The OVER is 7-0 in Chargers last 7 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game. Take the OVER 41 points here.


4* on Vikings/Packers OVER 47(-105 at 5dimes)

In what will be a similar point total to the 30-23 Monday Night victory by the Vikings over the Packers earlier this season, we'll side with the OVER 47 points in the second meeting between these NFC North rivals in 2009. The Packers have been unstoppable of late offensively, and the Vikings have been as well despite stopping themselves last week against Pittsburgh with costly turnovers deep in Steelers' territory. Green Bay has scored 21 or more points in every game this season, and they average 26.8 points/game on the year. The Vikings have scored 27 or more points in 6 of their 7 games this season, and they average 29.4 points/game on the year. Both teams are very balanced as the Vikings put up 354 total yards/game while the Packers put up 376 total yards/contest. There simply won't be enough stops Sunday to keep this one under the number. The Vikings are 23-8 OVER (+14.2 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread since 1992. The Packers are 27-11 OVER (+14.9 Units) after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games since 1992. The OVER is 9-1 in Vikings last 10 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. The OVER is 7-2 in Vikings last 9 games as a road underdog. The OVER is 33-16-3 in Vikings last 52 games following a S.U. loss. The OVER is 21-9-1 in Packers last 31 games overall. The OVER is 21-7-1 in Packers last 29 vs. NFC. The OVER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. Take the OVER 47 points in another shootout.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-1-09

Marc Lawrence

Playbook

Sunday, November 1


5* BEST BET NY Giants over PHILADELPHIA by 10



4* BEST BET Minnesota over GREEN BAY by 11



3* BEST BET Houston over BUFFALO by 13



BALTIMORE over Denver by 3


CHICAGO over Cleveland by 14

INDIANAPOLIS over San Francisco by 10

Miami over NY JETS by 1


St. Louis over DETROIT by 1

DALLAS over Seattle by 13


SAN DIEGO over Oakland by 13


TENNESSEE over Jacksonville by 3


ARIZONA over Carolina by 3



NFL TOTALS
3* Chargers UNDER
4* Packers OVER
5* Bears UNDER

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-1-09

The King Maker

10 units Miami +3.5 (-110)
10 units Miami/Jets OVER 40 (-110)


10* Best Bet
I see multiple opportunities in this match-up. It's a straight-forward POUNDER, and it should be pretty one-sided, so lets nail it

Dallas -9.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-1-09

ATS Lock Club

6 units Giants -1
5 units Green Bay -3
5 units Indianapolis -13
4 units Arizona -10

ATS Financial

4 units Denver +3 1/2
3 units Dallas -9 1/2

Hoops
4 units Chicago +4 1/2

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-1-09

Kevin O’Neill

Giants (+3) @Eagles


Giants by 4.


Texans (-3½ even) over @Bills

Texans by 10.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-1-09

Budin
25* Minn

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-1-09

Karl Garrett 50 DIMER - SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 50 DIMER - SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Now I am not suggesting the 6-0 Colts are going to lose this game outright mind you, but things have been far too easy this season for Indy, and I think today is the day they get tested.

San Francisco will turn back to Alex Smith to handle the QB duties, and he did look sharp in last week's comeback, but loss at Houston.

The Colts have won 15 straight regular season games, but remember this, they are just 3-6 against the spread as a home favorite since last season, and today's line is a tad inflated if you ask me.

Michael Crabtree will only get better with each week, and the Niners will be able to run the ball with frank Gore that is as long as they don't get jumped on early. I happen to think they WON'T get jumped on early, as I have a feeling the Colts will be taking this game a little lightly early on.

San Fran still owns positive spread numbers under the intense Mike Singletary, as they are 9-3-2 their last 14 games with the points. A closer look at that spread mark shows a 5-0-1 dog spread mark their last 6.

I like the 49ers to give the coasting Colts a bit of a test today.

Take the points, as 50 Dimer San Francisco covers this generous spot.