11-2-09

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section (regular or premium)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-2-09

CONFIDENTIAL KICK-OFF

11 *NEW ORLEANS over Atlanta
*NEW ORLEANS 44 - Atlanta 21

Lost amid the off season hoopla of acquiring All-Pro TE Tony Gonzalez was the fact that Atlanta saw its defense ravaged by free-agent defections, forcing a significant re-tooling project for the stop unit by HC Mike Smith. And last week’s one-sided loss at Dallas indicates the Falcs might no longer be able to camouflage those deficiencies, especially with injuries piling up (CB Brian Williams the latest casualty) and the DL lacking a true run-stuffer after stout rookie DT Peria Jerry’s season-ending knee injury and Grady Jackson’s FA departure. Those shortcomings will likely be exploited by Drew Brees and red-hot New Orleans bunch that maintained its perfect SU and spread mark (6-0!) after overcoming 21-point deficit at Miami. And even the upgraded Saints “D” sharing in the fun with 2 more TDs last week (that’s now 5 this season!).

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-2-09

Indian Cowboy

6 Unit Play. Take the Atlanta Falcons +10 over the New Orleans Saints (Monday Night Football @ 8pm est). These two teams are division rivals. You think Atlanta will not be fired up coming off the tough loss to Dallas? You better believe it. The Falcons struggled in the atmosphere at Dallas, but this is their chance to redeem themselves a bit against a rival in New Orleans and on top of that, if the Falcons can defeat this team, they will not be that far out for the division crown. Heck, the Falcons will be 5-2 and the Saints would be 6-1 pending a Falcons win. The Falcons know this and the Saints did show some weaknesses against the Dolphins. I like the Falcons to be an active dog here as I see this game likely going over. But, more importantly, I like the Falcons here, as a dog, coming off a loss, against a division rival and looking to shock the football world so to speak by winning this game outright. I think folks will be surprised at how well this team will be prepared for this game. Do not underestimate this Falcons team and of course, the Saints get to show off their stuff in front of the league on MNF, but in the same token, this does have plenty of holes on defense and the Falcons can run the heck out of the ball. The Falcons are 8-1 ATS coming off a straight up loss.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-2-09

SIXTH SENSE
(NFL 26-19)

3% NEW ORLEANS -10.5
3% ATLANTA/NEW ORLEANS OVER 54


NEW ORLEANS -10 Atlanta 54.5
NEW ORLEANS 40 ATLANTA 24

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-2-09

Steven Budin-CEO MONDAY'S PICK FREEHOLD, NEW JERSEY WISE GUYS

25 Dime Release

New Orleans

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-2-09

redd:

15 dime: Falcons

[sobenkoma]

Re: 11-2-09

James Patrick Sports

Falcons vs. Saints
Play: 3* Over

New Orleans is virtually unstoppable at home as they have cashed winning Over the Total tickets at a (13-3) ATS rate of late. The Superdome will be a welcome venue as well for Atlanta QB Matt Ryan who is (11-3) in his career in games played indoors. Saints lead the NFL with an average of 39.7 ppg this season to date. Hope all the scoreboard bulbs are functioning for this one as the Black Birds and Saints light it up on Monday Night Football.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-2-09

4 Unit Play. Take Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+144) over the NY Yankees (Monday @ 8pm est). It is now or never for the Phillies. Usually we take totals in baseball, but today is a bit different. We have the opportunity to really ratchet up some profit today on the Fightin Phils with their ace on the mound. Cliff Lee has dominated these Yankees and other teams in the post season thus far and I loved the attitude he gaved the Yanks as he caught the shallow pop up that came back to the pitcher the other day. Even Charlie Emanuel chuckled at it. The Phils at the end of the day realize that it is one game at a time. If Lee can roll on today, they will have a dog fight on their hands in Game 6. And, certainly, they can send Lee back to the mound once again for Game seven. Heck, Lee will probably be fine pitching on two to three days rest for Game six for all that he is concerned and Manuel could send Pedro out there for Game seven. Either way you look at it, this is a must win for the Phillies and I believe Lee will show up in a big way. Besides, what fun is this series, if it does not at least go until Game 6? Lee has pitched a total of seventeen postseason innings thus far and has given up 0 runs, and has given up just two runs over his last 33 innings. Burnett can be a different pitcher on the road such as his six run performance in six innings at Anaheim in the prior series. I look for Lee, the crowd, the Phillies hitters all to be on their mark today as the Phillies look to stave off elimination and at least take this series to six games. The Yanks are 0-4 in their last four contests as Underdogs, the Phillies are 10-2 as favorites of late and the Phillies are 4-0 when Lee starts with such a total that has been set.

Good luck,
IC

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-2-09

Special K

233 15* Atlanta Falcons

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-2-09

Chris Jordan Monday's winner ...
200? NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-2-09

black widow:


6* 2 00 9 MNF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Falcons/Saints OVE R 54(-103 at 5dimes) *Got this on Wednesday 10/28/09

With the Saints scoring 45 or more points in 4 of their 6 games this season, taking the OVER on Monday night is really the only move. That's especially the case considering they face an explosive Falcons' offense and a suspect Atlanta defense. The Falcons were exposed last week, giving up 37 points and 414 yards of total offense to the Cowboys. They did manage to put up 21 points, which they have scored 21 or more in 4 of 6 games this season. The Saints are giving up 30.5 points/game in their last 2 games, which means Atlanta should be able to put up plenty of points Monday to help out with the OVER. Now back to this ridiculous New Orleans' offense. The Saints are scoring 39.7 points/game this season and putting up 427 yards of total offense/game. They cannot be tamed right now and Atlanta does not have the defense that is going to slow them down. Last year, the Saints won 29-25 at home vs. Atlanta and the Falcons won 34-20 at home vs. New Orleans as both meetings saw 54 combined points exactly. It's clear that both teams are improved offensively this season, which means they should have no problem combining to score more than 54 points Monday. The Saints are 11-3 OVER (+7.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons. New Orleans is 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) in home games after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. The OVER is 5-0 in Falcons last 5 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. The Saints are 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) in home games after gaining 6 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. Get ready for some offensive fireworks Monday night ladies and gentlemen. We are predicting this one will have gone OVER by the end of the 3rd quarter. Take the OVER 54 points here.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-2-09

From a friend of IWS

WUNDERDOG

Game: New York Yankees at Philadelphia (8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on New York Yankees +140 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 4.2)

The Yankees struggles in the postseason were all about the lack of pitching at the top of the rotation, so they went out and signed CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett in the off season. The dividends of that acquisition have paid handsomely as they are one game from their first World Series title in nine years. The Yankees have recorded 10 post-season wins and the difference is Sabathia and Burnett who started in seven of those wins. I give lots of respect to Cliff Lee as he has been huge, but the Yankees have a pitcher in Burnett who has the stuff to match him pitch for pitch as the Phillies lineup went 6-31 for an average of .194 against Burnett already in this series. The Yankees will be ready if needed, with the off day tomorrow, to send in Mariano Rivera to get six or even as many as seven outs to close. That is where the Yankees have it on the Phillies as we saw Brad Lidge implode in this series as he has so many times this year. The Yankees are now 38-15 vs. a left-hand starter and have won seven straight in NL ball parks, which includes four straight in Philly with last night's win. The Phillies have just a .541 winning percentage off a loss this year - a situation where they have been their most vulnerable. The Yanks are .655 off a win. While the price on the Yanks has been stiff the past couple of games, I like the + odds on New York to close it out tonight.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-2-09

Spartan
1* New Orleans -12

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-2-09

Al DeMarco
Monday's Play 15 Dime - New Orleans Saints

Many times you will hear the phrase "go against the public on Monday nights." Talk about pure, unsubstantiated rubbish. The public is NOT always wrong, and in this strange season where double-digit favorites have been a betting bonanza, and simply picking the straight-up winner of a game has produced over 80% pointspread winners on the year, laying points with the hottest team in the NFL can be understood.

To use a boxing analogy, New Orleans was on the ropes last Sunday at Miami, clearly softened up for the antipated knockout by the Dolphins, who jumped on them early and enjoyed a double-digit halftime lead. But in a game that might define this club, and give it the confidence it needs no matter what situation it faces from this point forward, the Saints stunned Miami with 30 second-half points to win and cover in a 46-34 victory.

New Orleans has covered 18 of its last 23, going 7-1 ATS in its last eight outings as a home favorite. While Drew Brees has garnered most of the attention for the team's success this season, the true key on offensive has been a ground game that entered the weekend ranked second in the NFL with a per game average of 154 yards. Powered by Mike Bell and Pierre Thomas, the ground attack should have continued success against a soft Atlanta defense allowing opposing ball carriers to average 4.6 yards per carry.

A strong rushing attack allows Brees the luxury of picking his spots to go on an aerial attack, and tonight he'll be facing an Atlanta stop unit that entered the weekend ranked 25th in the league at stopping the pass. Quarterbacks are completing 60% of their passes against the Falcons, who have been unable to generate much of a pass rush on the season with just 12 sacks through six games. Last Sunday, Tony Romo of the Cowboys lit Atlanta's secondary up with a 21-for-29 effort worth 311 yards and 3 TDs.

This is the Saints third "step-up" game of the season. In their first, they flattened the then-undefeated Jets, amidst all the "Rex Ryan is a genius" talk, 24-10 at home. Two weeks later, they hosted the 5-0 Giants and dominated them far more than the 48-27 final score would indicate. Now, coming off one of the biggest comeback wins in franchise history, they have the momentum and national forum to show the league they're for real with a rout of the visiting Falcons, who have lost two straight on the road by identical 16-point margins at New England and Dallas.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-2-09

Dave Malinsky

World Series Special - Yankees/Phillies #5

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (Lee)-150 over New York Yankees (Burnett)

3* PHILADELPHIA over NY YANKEES

The Phillies, to go back to Dylan Thomas, will not go gently into that good night. This is a poised and veteran team that brings a lot of character to the table, and there will not be a sense of defeat after the last two games on this field got away. That gives us a prime opportunity to play the spectacular form of Cliff Lee, and go into A. J. Burnett on three day’s rest, something that the latter has only one four times in his career, and not once this season. Lee’s post-season work has been nothing short of brilliant. He has allowed just two earned runs on 20 hits over 33.1 innings (an 0.54 allowance), with 30 strikeouts vs. only three walks. From this mound he has allowed one run in 17 innings, with 15 Ks and no walks, and the only thing that kept him from working shutouts each time was an 11-0 lead over Los Angeles that left little reasons for him to take the mound for the 9th inning. His stuff was as good in the dominating Game #1 win at Yankee Stadium as anything that we have seen this season, with 10 strikeouts, no walks and only six hits allowed, and given the way that the Yankees were not able to adjust to him over the course of the evening, getting a second look is not necessarily an asset. There were a lot of confused swings on Wednesday, and we expect more of the same here. Meanwhile Burnett also threw well in winning Game #2, but in getting stretched out to 108 pitches, the lack of proper down-time between starts becomes a factor. He only worked to an 8-6/4.83 tune on the road this season, and in the lone playoff outing from a foreign mound was clubbed for six runs in as many innings against the Angels. His game is much different than Lee’s, which makes a quick second look a plus for the Phillies ? in three outings this season in which he had to face the same team twice in a span of 11 days or less he worked to a 6.75 tune. Even if he can bring anything near his top game to the table he is unlikely to be able to bridge this one to Mariano Rivera, and that brings the New York set-up corps into play, a clear weakness even in building this 3-1 series lead.