11-5-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-5-09

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

CHICAGO BULLS +11

For a number of different reasons I believe we’re getting excellent value on the Bulls:

Chicago is coming off an impressive 83-81-comeback win over Milwaukee on Tuesday; the Bulls trailed by 18 in the third quarter before rallying behind Derrick Rose and Luol Deng.

Rose scored 10 of his 16 points in the fourth quarter while Deng finished with 24 and a career-high 20 rebounds; both are playing with a lot of confidence right now and will not be intimidated by the Cavaliers.

On the other side of the court: After a slow start the Cavs are starting to win and seem to be playing better together with the new faces on the team.

Although Shaq has played better in the last couple games, let’s not be too hasty to read too much into it; Shaq has been inconsistent at best over the last few years and I expect him to follow this pattern until he finally decides to throw in the towel.

Bottom line: Chicago has been outscored by an average of 18.0 points in losing both road games this season and is 13-30 away from the United Center since the start of last season, and although the outright win is most likely out the question in this one, I do believe the BULLS will build off of their last victory and play a full four quarters and do just enough to sneak away with an ATS victory with the large spread they are being afforded and for Cleveland to fall to 1-3 ATS in home games this year! *8* BULLS.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-5-09

Lenny Del Genio

EAST CAROLINA +13.5

Oddsmakers are banking on the public knowing all about Virginia Tech's history of Thursday success and figuring they'll bounce back after losing outright to North Carolina at home last week, but we're not falling for it. Not putting much stock into the fact that the Hokies were once ranked in the top five either as they could easily be 4-4 this season if not for a late TD at home vs. Nebraska. Remember that they only mustered 155 yards of total offense vs. Alabama in the opener and the last two weeks have seen their once vaunted defense allow nearly 500 yards rushing. The offense is having problems scoring TD's in the red zone and tonight's opponent, East Carolina, ranks 16th in the country in red zone defense. So those problems aren't likely to stop here. The Pirates have also rushed for over 600 yards in their last three games, so the troubles for the Hokies defense are likely to continue as well. Last year, ECU ran wild for 158 yards on them, is coming off a season high 275 yards vs. Memphis last week and is averaging 149.4 YPG overland this year. Remember if you can run the ball effectively, you can bleed the clock, which is very important if you're the underdog. The revenge angle for Va Tech's 27-22 loss last year is overplayed as well. Sure, ECU blocked a punt for the win, but they also outgained the Hokies 369-243. Considering that these teams appear to be pretty even and the fact that this game is in Greenville, this line is off significantly. Who cares if Virginia Tech hasn't lost three games in a row since 2000? The Pirates are a perfect 3-0 ATS the past three seasons as a double-digit dog of three touchdowns or less. East Carolina is our Thursday Night CFB Oddsmaker Mismatch.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-5-09

Rocketman

DETROIT RED WINGS -135

Detroit is 4-1 at home this year. Detroit is 21-5-1 SU at home vs San Jose since 1996. Sharks are 6-22 in their last 28 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game. Sharks are 1-6 in their last 7 Thursday games. Red Wings are 7-0 in their last 7 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Red Wings are 21-7-1 in their last 29 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Red Wings are 38-13 in their last 51 games as a home favorite. Red Wings are 48-17 in their last 65 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game. Red Wings are 38-14 in their last 52 home games. Red Wings are 10-4 in their last 14 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Red Wings are 7-3 in their last 10 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game. Red Wings are 95-41 in their last 136 games following a win. Red Wings are 216-100 in their last 316 games as a favorite. Red Wings are 80-38-5 in their last 123 Thursday games. Red Wings are 35-17 in their last 52 vs. Pacific. Favorite is 17-5 in the last 22 meetings. Home team is 21-8 in the last 29 meetings. Sharks are 3-8 in the last 11 meetings. Sharks are 4-18-1 in the last 23 meetings in Detroit. We'll play Detroit for 4 units tonight!

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-5-09

Teddy Covers
Temple OVER 42

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-5-09

NorthCoast - Power Plays

NO PLAY: VIRGINIA TECH 28 EAST CAROLINA 22

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-5-09

Andre Gomes

Bulls/Cavaliers OVER 187.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers didn’t enjoy the best start of the season, but they are slowly improving and their offense is already showing some signs of life. Against the Celtics and the Raptors, the Cavs couldn’t reach the mark of 20 assists, but since then, they dished 24, 22 and 25 assists. They also connected 10, 9 and 11 treys and even Shaquille O’Neal is getting more involved offensively. Note that in those 3 games, the Cavs were extremely effective on the offensive end, as they had efficiency numbers always above 115, however they were "just" able to score 104, 90 and 192 points due to the slow pace of those games. Not surprisingly, I was with the under in 2 of those 3 games, as I took advantage of such “hidden” factor.

For tonight’s contest, the Cavs will face a team who plays in a faster pace: the Chicago Bulls. The Bulls are coming from an unimpressive win against the Bucks, who were missing Michael Redd and in my opinion, they underestimated an inferior Bucks team. To make a point in here I just have to say that the Bulls were trailing by 29-43 at halftime just to make a comeback in the second half. Tyrus Thomas is out for this game and the Bulls are playing with rookie Taj Gibson in the Power Forward position and the Cavs will have a huge edge in the front, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Shaq or Ilgauskas enjoy a big night today. The good news for the Bulls is that Luol Deng is in great form and last game he put some impressive numbers on the court with 24 points and 20 rebounds and we have also to say that the Cavs aren’t defending so well the opposing backcourt like they did last season. Anthony Parker is their starting SG and he’s definitely not as defensively effective as Delonte West and even Mo Williams looks like he lost a step in the defensive end. Gilbert Arenas torched Mo Williams with 22 points and 5 assists and even the rookie PG Johnny Flynn scored 17 points against the Cavaliers, so I expect Derrick Rose to have nice numbers tonight.

Last season these two teams faced each other four times and the games ended with 200, 203, 211 and 195 points and with a similar pace of last season's contests, the fair line for this game should have been 192-195 points. This is a National TV game and we will surely see Lebron James in an attack mode and with a line of just 187.5 points, we have a nice value on the Over and I’m pulling the trigger in here tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701/702 Over 187.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-5-09

Sammy Jankus 11/5

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Sammy Jankus Reverse Barometer

I rate my plays 3, 4 and 5 stars. Always play the OTHER SIDE of my game writeups.

1) San Antonio at Utah 10:35 PM ET

3* (704) UTAH (+1)

This ain’t your daddy’s Utah team. No, the once-feared Jazz led by Karl Malone and John Stockton have slowly given way to a ragtag gang of misfits that can barely tie their own shoelaces. Usually solid gold in the ATS department when playing at EnergySolutions Arena, the Jazz got flattened Monday night by Houston as 8-point chalk, losing outright 113-96. Utah then had Dallas on the ropes the next evening in Big D – only to execute a monumental 4th quarter collapse where they were outscored 44-18, blowing the game and the cover. No way I want this gutless bunch against a solid Spurs team that’s getting contributions from a half-dozen players besides Tim Duncan! I think San Antonio wins this by double digits – so your play (and I feel bad doing this to you) is on UTAH.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-5-09

Northcoast

Marq--E Car
Op----Temple & Under E Mich

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-5-09

Evan Altemus

SAN ANTONIO SPURS -2

Utah is now 1-3 on the season, with all of their losses coming against good teams in the Western Conference, such as Dallas, Houston, and Denver. San Antonio has had four days off to prepare for this game, so I am sure they will be fully prepared. The Spurs have played very well against the Jazz over the last few years, and they won and covered in all three games against them last year. I feel that the difference in this game will be defense. The Jazz defense has given up 113 points to Houston, 114 points to Denver, and they allowed Dallas to score 44 points enroute to a comeback win a few days ago. San Antonio plays much overall team defense, and I look for a focused effort from them in this game. I also expect Utah to come out sluggish after the demoralizing loss in their last game. Look for the Spurs to get the win and cover.

3 UNIT SELECTION SPURS.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-5-09

4 Unit Play. Take Over 201.5 between the San Antonio Spurs @ Utah Jazz (Thursday @ 10:30pm est). The last four times these two teams have met, the contest has gone over. Obviously, this stretches back to last year when the Spurs did not have Richard Jefferson as an added scoring option. Now, with him, this team is even more potent on offense. Heck, Jefferson comes off his first big game as a Spur with 22 points in the big win over the Kings at home as the Spurs covered the -16.5 spread. The Spurs did not play well against the Bulls in their last road contest scoring just 85 points. I don't forsee that today. I see the Spurs playing very well as they are getting more used to Jefferson in the lineup and have pop with Manu leading the charge from the bench. Utah comes off an ugly game against Dallas where they fell short 85-96 and they come off a home loss to Houston as well. The Houston game was totaled at roughly the same and the game finished at 209 points. I look for the Jazz to play much better offensively at home coming off back to back losses, the Spurs to continue to play well offensively with Jefferson in the lineup as this game likely goes over the posted total. There was a quick uptick in the total when it was released and with the public on the under by a 2:1 margin, indeed I think the over is the play as the Over is 6-1 when the Spurs are favored lately and the Over is 10-3 when the Jazz play a team with a straight up winning record.

Good luck,
IC

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-5-09

vegas-runner | CFB Total Thu, 11/05/09 - 7:30 PM Ÿ€

triple-dime bet 305 Miami (Ohio) / 306 Temple Under 43.0 Bodog
Analysis:
*** NCAAFB 3* BEST (TOTAL) BET OF THE DAY ***

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-5-09

GoodFella

CFB
Virginia Tech vs. East Carolina
7:45 EST

I personally bought the hook here for this 1* release, as having +14 forces VTech to win by THREE scores to beat us. However, if you can't buy a hook, I do like this play at +13.5 or +13.

This is NO doubt E.Carolina's biggest game of the year and they are coming in with 9 days of rest too. For Virginia Tech, they lost their 3rd game last week, officially eliminating them from any type of BCS contention or big bowl game, and clearly they are in a letdown spot here tonight. VTech is also having trouble scoring of late. VTech scored just 17 last game vs. UNC, and of their 4 games where they cracked 30 points, only 1 of those games was on the road. East Carolina usually plays up to their competition as well, as they are 7-3 ATS last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record, & I really like this spot for East Carolina tonight, in a game thats closer than most people think it will be tonight. We have a Home Dog on Thursday Night getting over double digits vs a team who just had their seasons goal wiped away, and they will be in a hostile enviroment vs a team playing their BIGGEST game of the year. Grab the points with East Carolina tonight & look for a one score game here tonight.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-5-09

Greg Shaker
EAST CAROLINA +13.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-5-09

Tim Trushel

Miami Ohio/20*

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-5-09

DB Sports Consultants
Thursday, November 5, 2009

NBA
*4 San Antonio EVEN
*4 UNDER 191 Cleveland/Chicago
*3 OVER 197 San Antonio/Utah

NCAAF
4* E. Michigan +21.5
3* UNDER 49 E. Michigan/N. Illinois
3* VT -12.5
3* UNDER 50.5 VT/ECU
3* Miami Ohio +17.5
3* OVER 43 Miami Ohio/Temple