11-8-09

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section (regular or premium)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-8-09

Teddy Covers
11/8/09 NFL 20* Big Ticket: Baltimore -3 (405)
11/8/09 NFL Arizona +3 (413)
11/8/09 NFL New England -10.5 (416)
11/8/09 NFL Philadelphia -3 (426)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-8-09

Sixth Sense
BEST BETS

YTD 27-20 +15.00%

3% WASHINGTON +9.5
3% DENVER +3
3% BALTIMORE/CINCINNATI OVER 44
3% SAN DIEGO/NY GIANTS OVER 47.5
3% DALLAS/PHILADELPHIA OVER 49

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-8-09

Doc's Sports

NFL

5 Unit Play. #109 Take Baltimore -3 over Cincinnati (Sunday 1 pm CBS) Top Game of the Week. The Ravens appeared to get well last week as they dominated the previously unbeaten Broncos en route to a 30-7 victory. QB Joe Flacco just continues to get better in his second season under center and has already thrown 12 touchdowns on the season. The Ravens need this win since they already lost to the Bengals in Baltimore earlier this season. The Bengals are coming off of a bye but that has spelled trouble for them in recent years, as they are just 2-6 ATS in their next game following a bye the last eight years. The Bengals are a team that never seems to handle prosperity and expect another setback on Sunday, as the Ravens tie them in the AFC North standings. Baltimore 27 Cincinati 14.


4 Unit Play. #106 Take Under 41 ½ in Washington @ Atlanta (Sunday 1 pm Fox) The Redskins are coming off a much-needed bye week but I highly doubt that their offense will be able to turn it around when they travel to the Georgia Dome in Atlanta on Sunday. The Falcons need to win this game but will enter off a short week after a tough loss to the Saints last Monday night. The Falcons will likely just go through the motions on Sunday since they have two road games the next two weeks. Assuming turnovers and special teams do not play a major role in this contest, we expect an easy winner with the under. ATL 24, Washington 13.


4 Unit Play. #111 Take Houston +9 over Indianapolis (Sunday 1 pm CBS) The Colts came back to earth last week when they struggled to put away the 49ers and now they must face a much better team in the Houston Texans. Houston will be without TE Owen Daniels but QB Matt Schaub is playing outstanding with 16 touchdowns this season against only 7 interceptions. The Colts have a strong defensive rating but I am still not sold on them and expect Houston to have success running the football. The Texas will have to play a bend-but-do-not-break defense against QB Manning and since this is a divisional match-up, I expect them to keep it close. Take the points and watch your money grow. Indianapolis 27, Houston 21.


4 Unit Play. #129 Take Pittsburgh -3 over Denver (Monday 8:30 pm ESPN) The most competitive game on paper takes place Monday night in Denver. The Broncos suffered their first loss of the season last week against Baltimore and I expect them to struggle again playing another hard-hitting defense. QB Kyle Orton cannot be productive for an entire 16-week season and expect the Steelers to blitz him early and often. The Steelers have won four straight games and had last week off to get some players healthy. This includes Troy Polamalu, who is listed as probable. He is the foundation of their defense and if he plays, expect the Steelers to win this game by double digits. Denver hasn’t played that well at Mile High Stadium and went just 4-4 there in 2008. The Steelers go to the top of the AFC North and we collect big in the process as well. Pittsburgh 27, Denver 13.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-8-09

Lenny Del Genio 25* Division Game of the Year

Lenny Del Genio | NFL Side Sun, 11/08/09 - 1:00 PM ³
triple-dime bet 407 HOU 9.0 (-110) Bodog vs 408 IND
Analysis:

Play on Houston at 1:00 ET. Winners of three straight and now 5-3 for the first time in franchise history, this is probably the biggest game in the history of the Texans franchise. Coming into the season big things were expected from the Houston offense and this unit has not disappointed. Behind QB Matt Schaub, who has more passing yards and TD's than Peyton Manning this year (played one more game), has directed the offense to a franchise-best four 400+ yard games. They have scored 24 or more points in six of their last seven games. Even with Steve Slaton struggling, the Texans have found another RB to produce in Ryan Moates, who had three touchdowns a week ago. Schaub, who has already set a career high with 16 TD's, completed 27 of 33 passes for 236 yards in his lone start vs. Indianapolis last year. He and the best WR in football, Andre Johnson, can take advantage of a Colts secondary that could be down as many as two cornerbacks here. Offense has always been a strength for this team, but where the true improvement has come has been in the trenches. No one questions the drafting of former #1 overall DC Mario Williams over Reggie Bush any longer. The run defense, formerly a real sore spot, has improved by leaps and bounds allowing just three yards per carry over its last five games. The Colts rank just 30th in rushing in the league and could be without Donald Brown for a second straight game. Last week, they ran for just 61 yards on 21 carries with just five of those going for four yards or more. This season, Indianapolis has just three runs of 20 ya‚rds or more! Much is being made of the fact that this head-to-head rivalry has been so one-sided in front of the Colts. Yes, Indianapolis leads 13-1 in terms of straight up results, but at the betting window it's an even 7-7 split and last year's two games were decided by a total of 10 points, one of which came about due to a terrible 4th quarter effort from jettisoned Texans QB Sage Rosenfels. Overall, Houston is on a 7-2 ATS run in division games while the Colts are just 1-4 ATS L5 when hosting AFC South foes. Indianapolis has to lose a regular season game sooner or later (won 15 straight) and even if they don't here, we'll be glad to grab all these points. Houston is our 25* AFC South Game of the Year.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-8-09

Malinsky
5- J'Ville -6.5
4- New england -10.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-8-09

Indian Cowboy



6 Unit Play. NFL First Half Game of the Year. #405. Baltimore Ravens -3 over the Cincinatti Bengals (Sunday @ 1pm est). Certainly the Ravens have a great deal of revenge from their first loss to this team 14-17 at home. It was a drive put together by the Bengals in their last possession as they stunned Baltimore for their first loss of the year. The Ravens do have three losses on the year. But, in their defense, the three losses come from a combined total of 11 points. I like the Ravens here to get their revenge as they come off a big win over the Broncos at home. This team understands that they are 4-3 and do not have a grapple on the playoffs yet by any means after their hot preseason and regular season start which found them winning their first seven contests of the year - including the preseason. I like Coach H to get his players fired up for a nice revenge game here as this is a contest that Baltimore could win by double-digits as they likely do not let off the pedal. Remember, the Bengals did lose to the Texans at home and they come off a big win over the Bears as they are in for a likely let down Sunday after such a big win. These are the same Ravens that went on the road to defeat the Chargers, and the same Ravens that had the goods to nearly defeat a team in the Vikings if their kicker did not miss the field goal in question. The Ravens are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as as favorite and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games.

4 Unit Play. #407. Take the Houston Texans +9 over the Indianapolis Colts. I'm not the one to go against the Colts, but this is a division game. And, these Texans are for real. This team went on the road to defeat the Bengals and crushed Buffalo 31-10 on the highway as well. This team is very familiar with the Colts and lost by 6 points on the road last year. This year's team is even better. I like the nine points here as the Texans would love to give the Colts their first loss on the year. More importantly, the playoffs are in reach for the Texans this year. This team is 5-3 and certainly capable of having the offense to put up some points on the board. They learned a great deal from the Niners who nearly defeated the Colts and will likely have a similar game plan here. I like the Texans plus the points in this division rivalry game as they are tired of being the doormat to this team in this particular division. Texans are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as an Underdog and the Colts are 2-5 ATS as a home favorite by this margin.

4 Unit Play. #417. Take the Carolina Panthers +13.5 over the New Orleans Saints (Sunday @ 4:05pm est). A lot of points here in a division game. Carolina showed a lot of heart at Arizona winning 34-21 as a ten point underdog. Remember, this team also defeated Tampa Bay in a division game and only lost to the Falcons by eight points on the road. Certainly if the Falcons can hang tough in New Orleans with a 10 point spread more or less, why not Carolina on a 13.5 spread. Carolina has come around lately as they have three wins on the year. Frankly, I think they get up for this game similar to the Arizona game as Fox has this team moving in the right direction since the second half of the Washington game when they were losing outright at home. Remember, Arizona runs a similar offensive set such as New Orleans and there is no reason to think that these Carolina defensive backs can't hang tough here as Carolina puts up their fair share of points just like they did against Arizona. Saints are 4-11-1 when they face a team with a losing overall record at home.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-8-09

Steven Budin-CEO
SUNDAY'S PICK 50 DIME

PHILADELPHIA

Note From Steve Budin:

Philadelphia has been a steady -3 point favorite all week as this play is posted around 11 PM Eastern Saturday evening.

If the line remains -3 or moves to -3 1/2 or even -4, buy down the 1/2 point in each situation.

Thus, if you reduce the price to -2 1/2, and the Eagles prevail by just a field goal, you walk away with a win.

If the price is moved from -3 1/2 to -3, and the Eagles win by three, you get the push.

And if the price is moved from -4 to -3 1/2, a four-point win by the Eagles results in a win.

I do not anticipate this number moving past 4, but on the off chance it does move to -4 1/2, you would again buy down to -4 to assure yourself of a push should Philadelphia win by only four.

Take it from a former bookmaker and the guy who fathered the offshore sportsbook industry that too many gamblers and handicappers needlessly buy half points on all types of numbers. In this case, however, it's a wise investment strategy, using the power of money - our bulging bankroll - against the bookmaker.

Why not buy a little extra insurance at a few cents on the dollar to protect your investment? As CEO of a multi-million dollar company I can tell you it's the right move, just like I knew it was the right move when as a bookmaker I saw smart players doing the same thing when the opportunity presented itself.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-8-09

Jeff Benton
Sunday's 2009 NFL Game of the Year winner ... 50 DIME: PATRIOTS (minus the points vs. Dolphins)

IMPORTANT NOTE: I want you to make a smart investment and buy down the half-point with New England if this number is sitting a 10 1/2. Do that and lay minus-10 with the Patriots, as 10 is a very key number in the NFL. ... Also, DO NOT settle for New England -11 unless you absolutely have to, as there are plenty of places that have the Patriots at -10 1/2.


Patriots

The last time Miami went to New England, it introduced “The Wildcat” to the NFL. Caught completely off guard, the Patriots were crushed 38-13 as a 12½-point home favorite, with the Dolphins putting up 461 yards (216 rushing) and holding the Matt Cassel-led Patriots offense to just 216 total yards (and that was Cassel’s third career start).

Two months later, after studying hours of “Wildcat” tape, Bill Belichick took his team to Miami and got some big-time revenge in a 48-28 win as a one-point road favorite, this time holding the Dolphins to just 62 rushing yards, while the offense rolled up 530 yards, with Cassel throwing for 408 yards. It was classic Belichick: You may fool and embarrass him once, but you will not do so twice.

So how does this all apply to today’s game? Well, for starters, the Patriots are coming off a bye, meaning they’ve had two weeks to prepare for any new “Wildcat” wrinkles, not to mention two weeks to study new Dolphins QB Chad Henne, who will be making his fifth career start today. As anyone who has followed football religiously for the last decade knows, Bill Belichick eats rookie quarterbacks for breakfast, lunch AND dinner. There’s little no doubt that the New England defense, which surrendered a grand total of seven points and 144 passing yards in two wins prior to the bye, will make life miserable for Henne (who struggled through a 12-for-21, 112-yard passing day and was sacked six times at the Jets last week). There’s also little doubt that New England will be more prepared for the “Wildcat” than any team Miami has faced to this point.

At the same time, you think Tom Brady is itching to get back on the field after a week off? The Golden Boy finally looked to have turned the corner from his knee injury the last two weeks, lighting up the Titans and Bucs for a combined 688 passing yards, nine TDs and two INTs, completing 78.8 percent of his passes (52-for-66) … and he didn’t even finish either game! Today, Brady is going up against one of the worst passing defenses in the NFL (the Dolphins give up 240.6 passing ypg and 7.8 yards per pass attempt). The last time Brady faced Miami was during the Patriots’ 2008 perfect season, and all he did was complete 39 of 58 passes (67 percent) for 569 yards and nine touchdowns, leading his team to wins of 28-7 at home and 49-28 on the road. And get this: Today, Brady – along with partners in crime Randy Moss and Wes Welker – gets to go up against TWO rookie cornerbacks!

While New England is coming off a bye here, Miami is in a really bad situational spot, as it is making its second straight trip to the Northeast. Last week, the Dolphins got one of the luckiest wins you’ll ever see in the NFL. Despite managing just 104 total yards (52 net rushing, 52 net passing) and giving up 378 total yards (rookie QB Mark Sanchez had 265 passing yards and two TDs), Miami pulled out a 30-25 victory. The reason was Ted Ginn, who returned two kickoffs for touchdowns against the sloppy Jets’ special teams. That’s NOT happening again this week against a Bill Belichick-coached squad.

The Patriots are 5-1 ATS in the last six years when coming off a bye, and this particular week off came in the absolute perfect spot, as, again, it has given Belichick time to game plan for the Wildcat and pick apart Henne’s tendencies. It’s also given the coach extra time to bring back down to earth any of his players who might have been feeling a little too good about themselves after routing the Titans and Bucs by a combined score of 94-7.

Yes, Miami has won three of its last four after an 0-3 start, but we’ve already established that last week’s win over the Jets was a major fluke. To a lesser degree, so was the Dolphins’ win over New York three weeks earlier, when Miami scored a TD with seconds to play to pull out a 31-27 victory. The Dolphins’ only other win was at home against crappy Bills. Put it another way: Miami’s three wins and covers this year came against the Jets twice (and rookie QB Sanchez) and Bills (Trent Edwards). Its four losses and non-covers came against the Falcons (Matt Ryan), Colts (Peyton Manning), Chargers (Philip Rivers) and Saints (Drew Brees), and three of those were double-digit defeats!

Put it all together – Henne vs. a Belichick stop unit that’s ranks in the top 5 in passing defense; a smoking-hot Brady vs. a poor Dolphins pass D; the Patriots coming off a bye vs. the Dolphins making their second straight long road trip to play a divisional game; the Patriots playing at home, where they’re 4-0 SU with three straight spread-covers vs. the Dolphins playing on the road (1-3 SU and ATS) – and this has three-touchdown blowout written all over it!

My friends, your 2009 NFL Game of the Year is the New England Patriots, and I’ll call for a final score of 38-13.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-8-09

Stephen Nover
Sunday's Plays 50 Dime PATRIOTS - This year is different in the NFL. You can't be afraid to lay double-digits.

I see the Patriots and Tom Brady tearing apart an overrated Dolphins team that was extremely fortunate to beat the Jets last week (outgained by 274 yards from scrimmage) and whose secondary is extremely vulnerable with two rookie cornerbacks.

You can be darn sure Bill Belichick isn't going to let kick returner Ted Guinn beat him like blustery Rex Ryan did. Without long returns from Guinn, the Dolphins don't have the offense to keep up with Brady, who finally appears to be 100 percent.

The Patriots are close to their record-setting form of two years ago scoring 94 points in their last two games. The Dolphins don't have the experience or depth in the secondary to keep up with New England's three and four wide receiver sets.

The Dolphins aren't going to trick the Patriots with their wildcat formation like they did last year in Foxboro. The Patriots were humiliated in that contest, their worst loss in eight years at Gillette Stadium.

The Patriots were idle last week. You know Belichick, a legitimate defensive genius, will have his team fired up and well prepared for any trickery the Dolphins' limited offense can come up with. This is just Chad Henne's fifth start.

The Patriots are 5-1 against the spread following a bye.

20 Dime PACKERS - The situation isn't the best for Green Bay, off a tough home loss to division rival Minnesota. But it won't matter in this matchup.

Tampa Bay is on its way to matching Detroit's winless season of last year. Yes, the Buccaneers are that bad. And they're going to be even worse with rookie quarterback Josh Freeman becoming their third starting quarterback of the season.

Freeman has a big arm, but he's not nearly ready to start in the NFL. Green Bay's 3-4 defense is going to have a monster game against him. Freeman is going to be confused by Packers defensive coordinator Dom Capers' schemes.

Freeman's passer rating in preseason was 41. The only time he has played during the regular season was nine snaps during two series in the Buccaneers' blowout loss in London to the Patriots.

Aaron Rodgers is having a tremendous statistical season. The Packers' problem has been pass protection. Look for that to be greatly improved as veteran left tackle Chad Clifton, Green Bay's best pass blocker, and right tackle Mark Tauscher are now ready to move into the starting lineup. Clifton had been hurt and Tauscher was recently resigned.

Look for Rodgers' confidence to go way up knowing his blindside will be protected and Jared Allen isn't around to hound him. The Packers are 16-6-1 against the spread on the road, 9-3 against the number as a road favorite.

Tampa Bay has failed to cover in its last seven home games.

10 Dime REDSKINS - I'll take this many points with a Redskins squad that ranks fourth in total defense giving up 283 yards per game and fifth in defensive scoring allowing 17.6 points per contest.

It's not like Atlanta is playing well. The Falcons have lost their last two games, surrendering a combined 72 points in road losses to Dallas and New Orleans.

Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan isn't experiencing a sophomore jinx after an outstanding rookie season, but he is on a cold spell throwing seven interceptions in his last three games while only completing 51.8 percent of his passes during this span.

Washington was idle last week. The Falcons have been on the road the past two weeks. They go on the road in their next two games, including facing division rival Carolina next week.

So the scheduling dynamics are in the Redskins' favor. The key is can the Redskins' offense, which has been terrible, put up enough points to get the cover?

New play-caller Sherm Lewis has had more time to digest the situation. The Redskins have had an extra week to get their much-maligned offensive line in order. Expect fresh legs from Clinton Portis.

Atlanta doesn't present a tough defense for the Redskins to overcome. The Redskins can move the ball better than perceived. The Falcons have given up 28 pass plays of 20 or more yards, second-worst in the league.

Jason Campbell should have time to throw. The Falcons have only 14 sacks, which ranks 24th. John Abraham is having a down year rushing the passer. Without Abraham, the Falcons can't generate a pass rush unless they blitz, which will open the short game up.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-8-09

Bob Valentino
Sunday's NFL winner ...
25 DIME: SEAHAWKS (minus the points vs. Lions)

NOTE: Make sure to get Seattle at -10. DO NOT wait to place your wager, as this number could easily jump to 10 1/2.

BOUGHT, PAID CONFIRMED

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-8-09

ROCK BOX SPORTS

3* CAROLINA PANTHERS +13

It seems inevitable that some of the big dogs are going to start covering as Vegas extends lines further and further upward due to the avalanche of public money coming in on teams like the Colts, Pats, and Saints. We suspect that there will be less and less to be gained by laying the points as the season wears on and plenty of value to be found with certain double-digit dogs in the right situations.

Witness the case the of the 2007 Pats who came out of the gates covering their first eight games against the spread, generating a public frenzy of Pats money as Vegas jacked lines through the roof to protect itself. Result? From week nine onwards the Pats went 2-9 against the spread including playoffs, failing to cover their last six in a row.

This year’s Saints may not be quite in the class of the ’07 Pats in terms of public support, but they’re close. Drew Brees and company opened the season with six straight covers, but the worm may have begun its turn on Monday night as the Falcons back-door covered an inflated eleven point spread. No signs this week that the public is dissuaded, though, as money continues to pour in on New Orleans. We expect that there will be similar value in going against the Saints down the stretch as seen with the ’07 Pats.

Morever, the Panthers have been quietly improving and actually seem to match up well this Sunday. John Fox’s crew is 3-1 since their bye-week and is coming of an impressive dismantling of Arizona last week. The Carolina defense has been improving steadily as the players grow accustomed to the new scheme installed this season. NFC Defensive Player of the Week Julius Peppers is starting look like his old self, with 23 tackles, six sacks, eight quarterback pressures, two forced fumbles and an interception return for a touchdown in the last four games.

On offense, the running game, the bread-and-butter for last season’s playoff squad, looked as strong as ever last week. If the Saints have a weakness this year, it may be defending the run. Few teams have had the opportunity to exploit this weakness, however, because they get behind early. This is when the opportunistic Saints pass defense goes to work. However, the Panthers have the kind of running game that can set the tempo and burn clock while keeping the Saints offense on the sidelines. If the Panthers defense can hold their own- and they are #1 in the NFL against the pass- this game could be a lot closer than one might assume.

Keep in mind that Jake Delhomme, a Louisiana native, is 8-2 lifetime against the Saints and has NEVER lost in the Superdome. In fact, THE PANTHERS HAVEN’T LOST IN THE SUPERDOME SINCE 2001. That’s not to say they’ll win this week, but it does tell us that they won’t be intimidated by the frenzied dome atmosphere.

One of the problems that the Pats faced in 2007 in terms of covering spreads was that opposing teams increasingly viewed their matchups with New England as their own personal Super Bowls, playing with great emotion and giving the Pats their best shot. This dynamic, in combination with inflated point spreads, translates into a lot of covering by the dogs.

This is precisely the situation that the Saints will face this week. Coming off a big Monday-nighter against the Falcons, they will face a Panthers team that will be playing with great emotion against their undefeated division rival. If the Saints cannot match this emotion, they may find themselves in a dogfight.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-8-09

JOHN RYAN
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Tampa Bay as they host Green Bay set to start at 1:00 EST. AiS shows a 72% probability that they will lose this game by 9 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 72-33 for 69% ATS winners since 1983. Play on dogs or pick after 7 or more consecutive losses. Here is a 2nd system that has gone 33-11 for 75% winners since 1999. Play on home dogs or pick after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games and is a terrible team winning <=25% playing a team with a winning record. TB in an excellent role for a strong game noting they are 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home games against teams with a turnover margin of +1 per game or better since 1992. Minnesota is simply in a poor spot coming off a terrible emotional loss to Favre and the Vikings. They were completely dominated in that game and know that they are not the BEST team in the division by leaps and bounds. Now facing a team that is winless there will be a strong tendence to assume that the game is won before it even starts. As SunTzu stated so well in the book “The art of War”, some battles are won before they are fought. Certainly an opponent that is not focused on the business at hand is extremely vulnerable to being defeated. Take TB.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-8-09

Kelso

3 units Chargers
4 units Miami
5 units Baltimore
15 units Saints
Sun/Mon parlay= 25 units Eagles,25 units Steelers, 25 units both

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-8-09

6* W id ow W ise guy 2009 N F C E ast G AM E OF THE Y EAR on Philadelphia Eagles -3(+111 at 5dimes)

The Cowboys have yet to pick up a signature win this season, and they're not about to get one in Philly Sunday night. Dallas is playing their best football right now, but their 3 straight wins have come against the Chiefs, Falcons and Seahawks. That's far from impressive. If you want to look at a team that steps up in big games, then look to the Eagles who just trounced the Giants last week 40-17 at home. The Eagles have held 5 straight opponents to 17 points or less, playing tremendous defense. We really feel that Philly is the more complete team, with more playmakers on offense and a better all-around defense. The numbers prove that as Dallas allows 342 yards/game while the Eagles give up just 297 yards/game. What will kill Dallas Sunday is their terrible pass defense, where they give up 237 passing yards/game compared to the 194 passing yards/game the Eagles give up. The Eagles are 3-1 at home this season, with their only loss to the Saints when Donovan McNabb wasn't playing due to a rib injury. Philly scores 32.2 points/game at home and averages 291 passing yards/game on their home turf. The Eagles rise up off a big division win, and that's proven by the fact that Philly is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons. Dallas is just 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in road games after a cover as a double digit favorite since 1992. The Cowboys are 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) vs. good passing defenses - allowing 5.7 or less passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons. Brian Westbrook is back in the lineup this week, giving the Eagles another playmaker to go along with Jackson, Maclin, Celek and McCoy. The Eagles have too many weapons on offense, the better defense, and they are playing at home Sunday night. Take the Eagles and lay the points.




5* A F C T OT AL OF T HE M ON TH on Texans/Colts OVER 47.5(-110 at bookm)

This one is a no-brainer Sunday folks, because when Indy and Houston get together, offensive fireworks always ensue. The OVER is 8-0 in the last 8 meetings, where the Colts and Texans have combined to score at least 48 points every time. Both teams are dominant offensively again this year, as the Texans average 28.5 points/game on the road while the Colts put up 28.1 points/game overall. Houston is 12-2 OVER (+9.8 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons. The Texans are 10-2 OVER (+7.8 Units) in dome games since 1992. Houston is 10-2 OVER (+7.8 Units) vs. excellent passing teams averaging 7.5 or more passing yards/att. since 1992. Get ready for a 9th consecutive shootout in this AFC South rivalry Sunday. Take the OVER 47.5 points.






4* on Ravens/Bengals UNDER 44(-110 at betus)

In the first meeting between Baltimore and Cincinnati, the Bengals topped the Ravens on the road by a final of 17-14. Expect this to be another fierce defensive battle in their second meeting, this time in Cincy. The UNDER is 3-1 in the last 4 meetings, where these teams have combined to score 37 points or less in all 4 meetings. The odds makers aren't giving this Cincinnati defense enough credit Sunday, and they are giving their offense way too much respect. The Bengals give up just 18.3 points/game this season defensively. The Ravens allow a respectable 19.6 points/game, which is impressive considering the tough schedule they have faced already. The UNDER is 7-1 in Ravens last 8 games as a favorite. The UNDER is 6-1 in Bengals last 7 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. The UNDER is 10-4-1 in Bengals last 15 home games. Take the UNDER 44 points here.




4* on Seattle Seahawks -10(-103 at 5dimes)

Seattle has been dominant at home against inferior opponents. Yes, they are just 2-5 this season, but after both the Cardinals and 49ers lost last week they are not far back in the NFC West division. The Seahawks' two wins have come at home by finals of 41-0 over Jacksonville and 28-0 over the Rams. That was the same St. Louis team that the Lions lost 17-10 at home last week. This game has blowout written all over it as the Seahawks roll Sunday. The Lions are 0-3 on the road this season, losing by an average of 22.7 points/game. In fact, they have lost all 3 of their road games by 18 points or more. Detroit is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in road games against NFC West division opponents since 1992. This is a tough road trip out on the West Coast for the Lions, which is never easy for any opponents. The Lions are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0. The Seahawks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0. Take Seattle and lay the points.




4* on New York Giants -3.5(-110 at SIA)

After 3 straight losses, the Giants bounce back in a big way at home Sunday against the vulnerable San Diego Chargers. The Chargers' three losses this season have come against the Ravens, Steelers and Broncos which are three teams that are the same caliber as the Giants. Their wins have come against the Raiders twice, Chiefs and the Dolphins. San Diego is simply overmatched Sunday, and they are up against a very hungry oponnent determined to end this 3-game skid. The Giants have been battling injuries, but they have three key players on defense that have returned to practice this week and will likely get the start. Michael Boley, Aaron Ross and Chris Canty are the three key players, and they have been missed the last 3 weeks as New York has imploded defensively. The Chargers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win. They did beat the Raiders last week, but only by a final of 24-16 as they let Oakland hang around. That was the same Raiders' team that the Giants beat 44-7 back on October 11th. The Giants are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Take New York and lay the points. (We'll take the Giants all the way up to -5.5 as a 4* Play, 3* Play at -6 or more)