11-8-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-8-09

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

HOUSTON TEXANS +9

For a number of different reasons I feel the Texans will do just enough to come away with an ATS victory:

Houston defeated Buffalo 31-10 last Sunday for its third straight victory to get off to the best start in franchise history.

Matt Schaub, who has thrown a career-best 16 TD passes, completed 27 of 33 passes for 236 yards with a TD and two INT's in his only start against the Colts, a 30-24 loss in 2007.

Schaub will be joined in the backfield by running backs Steve Slaton, Ryan Moats and Chris Brown, all expected to split time; Slaton rushed for 249 yards with three TD's on 30 carries in two games against Indianapolis last season.

Not only is Houston 4-1 SU its last five overall, it's also 6-2 ATS its last eight on the road.

On the other side of the field: The Colts running game is struggling right now (Indianapolis ranks 30th in the NFL with an average of 87.3 rushing yards per game) and now Indianapolis' schedule is about get a lot tougher.

Indianapolis improved to 7-0 for the fourth time in five seasons with last Sunday’s 18-14 home win over San Francisco, but it wasn’t an inspiring effort by the normally high-powered offense, and I expect it to struggle again this week.

The Colts only faced one team with a winning record so far - Arizona (4-3) in Week 3 - but after this contest they host New England (5-2) on Nov. 15 followed by a trip to Baltimore (4-3) and back to Houston (5-3).

It's true that Indianapolis is 5-1 ATS its last six overall, but dating back to last year its just 4-9 ATS its last 13 at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Bottom line: The Texans won’t have to deal with many of the Colts’ best defensive players; linebacker Tyjuan Hagler (biceps), cornerback Marlin Jackson (knee) and strong safety Bob Sanders (elbow) are all out for the season.

This spread is simply too high; look for HOUSTON to move to 5-2 ATS vs. conference opponents as the Colts fall to 1-2 ATS as a favorite of 3 1/2 to 9 1/2 points!

*9* HOUSTON.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-8-09

Executive

500 Chi
300 Kc
300 Tenn

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-8-09

Northcoast Marquee: Nevada

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-8-09

Lee Stryker GOY NE

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-8-09

Gameday Special 4* NE

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-8-09

Vegas Runner

triple-dime bet 408 IND 7.0 (-120) Bodog vs 407 HOU Analysis:

*** NFL 3* GAME OF THE WEEK ***
Too much Value now that the books adjusted down to 7.5, due to all the public money...Go ahead and buy the 1/2 Pt down to -7...VR

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-8-09

Teddy Covers

NBA Det

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-8-09

Docc's Sports NBA

2-Unit Play #509 Take Minnesota +13 Over Portland (9 p.m. EST, Sunday)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-8-09

Teddy June

20 Giants

wash

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-8-09

Stryker 4*
Over giants

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-8-09

Bobby Maxwell

700-Unit NFL Absolute Lock - SAN FRANCISCO NINERS

This line has intrigued me all week. The line has actually swung toward the Titans, which I don’t understand at all. So I’m taking the Niners at home in this one.

Tennessee got its first win of the season last week with a 30-13 win over the Jaguars. But it had nothing to do with the QB switch from Kerry Collins to Vince Young, it had to do with RB Chris Johnson going out of his mind and rushing for 228 on 24 carries with long TD runs of 89 and 52 yards.

Don’t read too much into that, the Tennessee defense isn’t getting any better any time soon. They are still allowing an NFL worst 30.1 points per game.

San Francisco made the QB switch to Alex Smith last week and hung with the unbeaten Colts in Indianapolis, losing 18-14 but cashing as a 13-point road ‘dog. Yes, the Niners have lost three straight, but those are some tough losses. This is the best 3-4 team in the NFL and today they are going to jump all over the Titans.

Tennessee is on ATS skids of 1-5 overall and 1-5 on the road. On the other side, the Niners are on ATS streaks of 5-1-2 overall, 4-1-1 at home and 5-1 in November contests.

Look for Smith to find his favorite target, TE Vernon Davis, a few times today. Smith was 19 of 32 for 198 yards last week in Indy and he’s throwing the ball very well. The Niners have the league’s second-ranked rush defense, giving up 84.9 yards per game. So they will be focused on stopping Johnson and that Titans’ running game, leaving it up to Young to try and beat them – and he can’t.

Lay the chalk with San Francisco in this one.



100-Unit NFL Oddsmaker's Error - BALTIMORE RAVENS

Baltimore showed some of its true colors last week when the defense stepped up and dominated the previously unbeaten Broncos 30-7, cashing as a 4 ½-point home favorite. This team still has the dominating defense it always has, but for some reason, they had three bad games and got people to start questioning them – big mistake.

Today the Ravens are still a little angry over the upset Cincinnati pulled four weeks ago when the Bengals marched into Baltimore and won 17-14 as a nine-point underdog. One of the rare games this season where the Ravens’ offense didn’t show up.

Joe Flacco has Baltimore’s offense fourth in the NFL in scoring at more than 28 points a game and seventh at 378.7 yards per contest. This kid seems to get it and will play the safe game today and not make any mistakes that will hurt his team. He knows the defense is coming out today to put on a show and he just needs to keep the car from crashing.

The Ravens are on ATS streaks of 20-7 overall, 10-2 as a favorite, 13-4 after a straight-up win, 9-3 on the road and 7-3 when facing divisional foes. On the opposite side, the Bengals are on ATS slides of 2-8 after the bye week, 5-12 against AFC teams and 5-12 after they get an ATS win.

Cincinnati crushed Chicago 45-10 last time it was on the field and got a monster day from Cedric Benson. He also ran over the Ravens defense four weeks ago. He isn’t going to do it again. This Ravens defense is too good. Play Baltimore and watch them win this one by 10.



100-Unit NFL Sunday Night Sizzler - DALLAS COWBOYS

This is a battle for the top spot in the NFC East and the 100th time these rivals have squared off. And there is still some lingering feelings from last year’s 44-6 thumping Philly gave Dallas last season with a wild-card playoff spot on the line.

I’m grabbing the points with the Cowboys in this one because they’ve actually been more consistent this season than the Eagles.

Dallas has scored impressive wins the last two weeks, beating Atlanta and Seattle at home and cashing in both contests. The Cowboys have won four of five with the only loss being the 17-10 defeat in Denver when they had chances late in the game to win that one.

Philly beat up the Giants last week 40-17 but prior to that they looked flat in two road games at Oakland 13-9 loss as 14-point favorites) and on a Monday night at Washington, winning 27-17 as a nine-point favorite but scoring and doing nothing in the second half of that one.

QB Tony Romo has led the Cowboys offense to second in the NFL at 411.1 yards per game, including a rushing attach that nets 147.6 yards each time out. This is a well-balanced offense that can keep a defense on its heels. Romo has to say away from the catastrophic mistake that surrenders not only a turnover, but six points.

Defensively, the Cowboys give up 19.4 points a game (10th in the NFL) and the key tonight will be getting pressure on Eagles’ QB Donovan McNabb and making him uncomfortable in the pocket.

The Cowboys have cashed in four straight November starts and they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 against NFC squads. In this Rivalry, the underdog is on a 7-2 ATS run and the road team has cashed in four of the last five matchups.

Grab the points and play Dallas in this one.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-8-09

Heisman Trophy Club

10- Cinn, Wash
20-nyg

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-8-09

JIM FEIST
5* Seattle Seahawks Under
4* Cincinnati Bengals
3* Kansas City Chiefs
Houston Texans
Arizona Cardinals
San Diego Chargers
Dallas Cowboys

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-8-09

Lenny Del Genio

WASHINGTON REDSKINS +10

It's kinda funny because as bad as the Redskins are made out to be, they have yet to lose any game by more than 10 points this season. Perhaps we're not the only ones who have noticed this as the line has already started to come down. The team should be well rested (off its bye) and the defense has certainly not been a problem, giving up more than 20 points just twice all season. Contrast that with the Falcons D, which has given up 72 points the last two weeks, making this team not worthy of laying two scores. Atlanta is 3-14 ATS at home after allowing 35 points or more in their previous game. They could be worn out after playing four of their previous five games on the road and now coming back on a short week. Washington is dead even with the oddsmakers when taking points this season and the road team has won the last three meetings in this head to head series. Not sold on the return of RB Michael Turner, who was averaging just 3.4 YPC before last week's strong effort vs. the Saints. He could be worn down from 376 carries last year. Take Washington.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-8-09

Score 400-ne, 300-nyg, daLL