11-10-09

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

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Just put them in the appropriate section (regular or premium)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-10-09

Tom Freese Blue Line Club CFB 10* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH TONIGHT!
Tom Freese Blue Line Club- Tuesday, November 10
Ohio U at Buffalo (7:00pm)


A win here secures a Bowl Game for Ohio U. The Bobcats have another reason to play as they have revenge from a 32-19 loss to Buffalo last year. Ohio U is 6-1-1 ATS their last 8 games as road dogs and they are 8-3-1 ATS their last 12 road games. Buffalo is 2-7 ATS their last 9 home games and they are 0-6 ATS their last 6 games as favorites. The Bulls are 1-6 ATS their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record and they are 0-6 ATS their last 6 games as home favorites. 10* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH PLAY ON #101 OHIO U.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-10-09

Tom Freese Blue Line Club 10* NBA "NO BRAINER" SIDE WINNER TONIGHT!
Tom Freese Blue Line Club- Tuesday, November 10
Houston at Dallas (8:35pm)


Dallas is 41-20-1 ATS their last 61 games when playing with two days of rest and they are 4-1 ATS their last 5 games overall. The Mavericks are 5-2 ATS their last 7 games off a win by more than 10 points and they are 11-4 ATS their last 15 games vs. the Rockets. Houston is in a 41-16 ATS Play Against System that says to Play Against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points in a game including two teams with a win percentage of 60% to 75% in the first half of the season. The Rockets are 4-9 ATS their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning record. 10* "NO BRAINER" PLAY ON #510 DALLAS

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-10-09

BeatYourBookie.com

NBA Hoops for Tuesday

100* Play Oklahoma City (-1.5) over Sacramento (Top Play)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-10-09

Winning Angle Football for Tuesday

NCAA

Play Ohio (+1) over Buffalo*
Game starts at 7:00 P.M. EST
(NCAA Top Guaranteed Winner)

Buffalo has lost 6 of the last 8 games and they have also lost 26 of the last 36 games when playing in the month of November. Buffalo has lost 3 of the last 4 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less and they have also lost 20 of the last 28 games coming off an OVER the total.


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Winning Angle Basketball

NBA

Play Miami (-6.5) over Washington* (NBA Top Play)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-10-09

MREAST NBA TUESDAY BIG TICKET

#507 PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS @ #508 MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES 8:00PM EST
PLAY ON #507 PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS -5 -110 FOR 4 UNITS

The Memphis Grizzlies will be without Allen Iverson as he takes a personal leave, and the word is Iverson is contemplating retirement. The Grizzlies have a bunch of good young players, but the bench has been ineffective as the team depth is a big question mark, and now have to replace 31 minutes a night from Iverson. The Grizzlies big 4 are getting 36+ minutes a night. What is happening is the fast paced no defense approach works well for awhile, but the Grizzlies have been outscored by a minimum of 8 points in the second half in each of their last 5 games. Portland can score, and play defense, and last year finished the season 9-4 ATS in their last 13 as a road favorite, and are already 1-0 this year. I like Portland in this one.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-10-09

Wunderdog

Game: Houston at Dallas (8:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: Dallas -6.5 (-110)

The Houston Rockets have made the best of life without Yao and Tracy McGrady. Sooner or later playing on the road against the good teams will take its toll. The Mavericks certainly have developed a huge home-court advantage as they are now 27-4 straight up in their last 31 home games. Two of the losses were to New Orleans, so this is certainly no easy task for the Rockets, who lost both games here a year ago by double-digits. On the road against the good teams has not been kind to the Rockets where they stand at just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 going back to last year. Dallas is playing lethal with two day’s rest and has now gone 41-20-1 ATS in their last 62 with two days off. The Rockets are just 4-11 ATS in the last 15 meetings, so I'm going with Dallas here.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-10-09

Doc's NBA - 11/10/09

3-Unit Play #503 Take Washington/Miami UNDER 187 ½ (7:30 p.m. EST, Tuesday)

These teams played last week and the total only got to 182, and that is with Miami shooting 49 percent from the floor and 57 percent from three-point land (8-of-14). Can’t imagine that lightning will strike twice against a Washington defense that is Top 10 in the NBA in defensive field goal percentage. But Miami is the really impressive defense here tonight. They are No. 1 in the NBA in both defensive field goal percentage and defensive three-point FG percentage and No. 6 in the league in points allowed. And the last game was on Washington’s turf where they are likely to have a better offensive performance. Also, Gilbert Arenas looks like he will play but may not be 100% and the loss of sharpshooter Mike Miller will limit the perimeter game for the Wiz Kids. Neither team is that explosive on offense and we see a game pretty similar to the one that was played last week and think there is value in this under.



3-Unit Play #506 Take Chicago +2 ½ Over Denver (8 p.m. EST, Tuesday)

Chicago has dominated the last two meetings between these clubs on their home court, blowing out the Nuggets but an average of 15 points on those games. The Bulls are 3-0 at home while the seemingly invincible Nuggets have all the sudden started to struggle on this long road trip now that they have started to face good teams (they lost two straight to Miami and Atlanta). The Bulls are always going to be worth a look at home getting points and we see this as a public line since the Nuggets have had a lot of buzz early this season. Chicago seems to always raise their level of play when the best teams come to town and we think the Bulls can win this one straight up and these points could come in handy if the game goes down to the wire.



3-Unit Play #511 Take Oklahoma City -1 ½ Over Sacramento (10 p.m. EST, Tuesday)

Oklahoma City has won three straight in this series and we love them tonight right under the key number of 2. These teams opened up the season against each other and the game was totally one-sided. And that was with Kevin Martin suiting up for the Kings – their best scorer is now on the injury list. These teams come in with similar records but OKC has had a much tougher road to get here and they are clearly the better team. The Thunder is playing some outstanding defense and we think that will be the difference tonight ad the Kings game is very one-dimensional (offense, offense, offense) and we just think OKC is very underrated tonight by the oddsmakers.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-10-09

5DimeSports.com
4 DIME PLAY

Vancouver @ St. Louis

8:00pm Tonight

4 Dime Play Take Vancouver ML +100 After studying tonight's game, I just can't find a reason for Vancouver to be the underdog here. They lost their last game, but have bounced back the past 4 times they lost and got a win. The do have a couple players doubtful tonight and one being their starting goaltender. The thing is their backup goaltender Andrew Raycroft has been lights out this season with a 4-1 record in his starts, with a 1.61 GAA. Another thing I like is the fact that Vancouver has went over every game coming off 3+ days rest, while St. Louis has gone 0-4 under on their amount of days off. Which means to me that Vancouver will put up points, while St. Louis may strugle. And I am not just saying that, the three games Vancouver went over off 3+ days rest, they scored 3,4, and 3 goals. While St. Louis on their amount of days off have scored 1,0,5, and 1 goals. Roll with the underdog here.

Trends I Like

Canucks are 8-1 in their last 9 Tuesday games.
Canucks are 4-1 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Canucks are 9-3 in their last 12 vs. a team with a losing record.
Canucks are 5-2 in their last 7 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
Canucks are 7-3 in their last 10 overall.
Blues are 0-4 in their last 4 games as a home favorite.
Blues are 0-4 in their last 4 home games.
Blues are 0-4 in their last 4 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Blues are 0-4 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
Blues are 0-5 in their last 5 overall.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-10-09

Dave M@LINSKY

Top of the Ticket – Side

4* Oklahoma City Thunder(-1.5) over SACRAMENTO KINGS

What do we read into Sacramento winning the first two games without Kevin Martin on the court Nothing. What do we read Oklahoma Citys 3-3 start that would seemingly elicit yawns Plenty. That means that we have excellent value to back what is not only the far better team, but also one that is physically and mentally tougher, which makes a big difference in terms of grinding out SU wins in such a setting. The Kings did what teams often do when a key player is sidelined ? they buckle down and play very hard for the first game or two, while also catching the opposition flat. This is not a lineup that forces an opponent to pay much attention in the film room. But it is after that first wave of adrenaline wears off, and when the other side now takes them seriously, that the crash happens. This is a young team lacking in experience and chemistry, and while they were given an invitation to be successful in a wide open game vs. mindless Golden State on Sunday night, that flow changes in a major way here. Oklahoma City is an under-rated item in this pointspread range. While bringing in top-level young talents like Kevin Durrant, Jeff Green and Russell Westbrook did create a level of visibility, the additions of Nenad Krstic, Thabo Sefolosha and Etan Thomas on the court, and Maurice Cheeks on the sidelines, were far off of the radar screens. But those additions have provided key pieces to a Thunder puzzle that now fits together in a concise way. Despite facing a challenging schedule through the first six games they are #5 defensively and #5 in rebounding on our best sets of ratings, with the Westbrook/Sefolosha back-court one of the better defensive combos in the league, and the Thomas/Nick Collison duo a tremendous defense and rebounding tandem off the bench (from Scott Brooks, on that latter duo - Its huge. We have two energy, intangible players coming off the bench. They create offense by just playing hard, cutting hard, getting offensive rebounds and making the extra pass. And defensively, theyre tough.) Sacramento has yet to be forced into a half-court game since losing Martin. The Kings led 85-68 going into the fourth quarter vs. Utah and coasted, and were never pushed in that playground game vs. Golden State. Now they will have to play some precision basketball for the first time with the current starting lineup, and that means breakdowns on both ends of the court. Tyreke Evans is talented but still raw, which means difficulties getting untracked vs. Sefolosha, and when that happens the entire offense bogs down. Meanwhile a defense that rates 27th on our best charts brings even more chemistry problems (note in winning those last two games the Warriors and Jazz were 68-126 on 2-point attempts). You do not win many games with such issues.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-10-09

Ron Raymond 5* NBA O/U Game of the Night

5* Over 205 Denver and Chicago

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-10-09

Craig Davis

Tuesday's Lineup


25 Dime --- THUNDER



10 Dime --- Nuggets-Bulls OVER



5 Dime --- BUFFALO



THUNDER --- To me, this one is pretty simple. Vegas still doesn't quite believe in this OKC Thunder basketball team, so we're going to get line value every time they play until the odds makers start realizing this team is a LOT better than they were last year... by leaps and bounds. HC Scott Brooks has preached defensive intensity to this team in the off-season, and that alone is the biggest difference you'll see from last year's version of the Thunder and this year's version. We knew last year OKC could score with just about anybody in the NBA, but they also had no business ever being a favorite because they couldn't stop anyone. Keep in mind, though, that Brooks didn't start the year as the head coach and was behind the 8-ball from the beginning. Brooks was hired when PJ Carlisemo got canned and really never had a chance to instill his defensive mind-set into this team.



Things have changed in OKC, though, and now that he's had a full off-season to work with them, you can see they are believing in his style of coaching. Don't believe me? Just look at the numbers. Last season the Thunder allowed well over 100 PPG for the season. This year, only two opponents have surpassed the 100-point plateau against them... and one of them was the Lakers and they needed overtime to get there. In fact, the Thunder opened the season vs. the Kings a few weeks ago and held them to 89 points for the game... and this is a Kings team that has scored over 100 points in each of their last four games.



Also keep in mind, Sacramento will be without their leading scorer, G Kevin Margin who is sidelined with a wrist injury. Martin was a huge factor in that game, scoring 27 points and dishing out 4 assists and I'm not sure they have anyone else on their bench that's capable of posting those type of numbers vs. this defensive-minded OKC Thunder bunch. We're also getting really good line value tonight because the game is on the road, otherwise we'd be asked to lay 7 or more points again... obviously I feel more comfortable laying one or two tonight. The road team is 13-4 ATS in the last 17 meetings between these two, and with them having already played once this season, I gotta take my chances with OKC to "steal" a road win from an overmatched Sacramento team tonight.



DENVER/CHICAGO OVER --- You want points? Watch tonight's Denver/Chicago matchup in the windy city. Denver started the season as one of the hottest teams in the NBA but have dropped two straight road games and will be without shot-blocker Kenyon Martin tonight.Denver's offense has kinda been "on hold" during these last two losses, but you can bet George Karl is going to open the flood gates for his Nuggets tonight as they realize the importance of this road win tonight. Denver comes in averaging 109 PPG on the season, but have been limited to just 100 and 88 in their last two road games. I can promise you this.... when you hold this offense to less than 100 points, they take it personally. They don't believe any team in the NBA should be able to keep their offense quiet, and with a few days rest, you can bet they're going to come out with guns-a-blazin' tonight. Yes, I realize Chicago is only scoring about 90 PPG thus far, but they also haven't faced a defense that's giving up 104 PPG on average either. Chicago has more than enough offensive talent to score points with anyone (Deng, Rose, Noah, Salmons), and defense simply won't be an option tonight. If you like offense, you need to plop down in front of your flat-screen tonight and buckle up for what should be a 110-106 type game. The last seven meetings between these two have gone OVER the total... and those totals were higher than tonight's number of 204. I wouldn't be surprised if this score isn't over the total by midway through the fourth quarter. I expect it to be close throughout, so that likely means a lot of free throws down the stretch... easy points for us when the clock is stopped. I'll take my chances with the OVER tonight.



BUFFALO BULLS --- Wasn't it just a week ago today, in this very same spot the Bulls were a small favorite over Bowling Green at home? Didn't the Bulls grab a 29-16 second half lead, but failed to step on the Falcons' throats and let them come all the way back?



Look, I'm not overly excited about this game because the MAC is one of the hardest conferences to figure out. Kent State and Miami Oh. were once a laughing stock but have beaten some teams they shouldn't have beaten. Western Michigan was supposed to be a very explosive offense, but they've struggled to score points at times. Toledo opened like gangbusters, but have fallen completely apart. Temple beats Navy outright at Navy, but comes back home and nearly loses to Miami, Oh. Like I said, tough conference.



But one thing I know... the home team in this series has won 8 of the last 10 meetings, and since we're dealing with such a small point spread, chances are the team that wins, covers. I'm also a guy who likes to buck the trends when it comes to the MAC. I realize it's not a very precise way to handicap a game, and normally I don't do that, but this conference is just weird. It doesn't make sense. Teams that win weren't supposed to win. Teams that lose weren't supposed to lose. And although most of the trends (and overall record) lean towards Ohio, the difference in these two teams is minimal.



Buffalo still has plenty of talent on both sides of the ball and they'll be getting a few of their injured players back. Both QBs have legitimate weapons to throw the ball to, but they both make plenty of mistakes and have forced a lot of interceptions. The team that limits the mistakes tonight wins... and I believe Buffalo made enough of them last week vs. Bowling Green that they might not have anymore left in them. Ohio hasn't played for two weeks and will come in a little flat. I'll side with the home team minus the very small impost.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-10-09

Dominic Fazzini

Tuesday's play
20 Dime -- Ohio (plus points vs. BUFFALO)



OHIO



The Bobcats are on a roll, having won four of its last five games, in their quest to win the MAC East Division title.



Senior QB Theo Scott has been effective leading Ohio's offensive attack, completing 55 percent of his passes for 1,437 yards and 13 touchdowns, and the team is averaging 24.4 points per game.



The Bobcats, who lead the nation in takeaways with 27, have won four straight MAC road games and are 4-1 SU on the road this season, losing only at Tennessee in September.



Despite losing its last two games to the Bulls, Ohio is 7-4 SU in its last 11 vs. Buffalo. And this is Ohio's only game over a 20-day stretch, so it should be well rested and prepared for the Bulls.



The Bobcats are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 road games, and 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight as a road underdog, while Buffalo is 2-7 ATS in its last nine home games. Take Ohio to cover the points tonight.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-10-09

PRIMETIME SPORTS ADVISORS

Early Card
1* Portland/Memphis UNDER 203
1* Okl City -1.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-10-09

Randall the Handle 11/10



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Pittsburgh +1.27 over BOSTON (REG) Pinnacle
How quickly we forget in this “what have you done for me lately” era? Yes, the Pens have dropped two straight by a combined score of 10-2. Yes, they’re still without Malkin, Gonchar, Kennedy and Letang and those are four front-line NHL players. However, they’re still the Penguins, they’re still highly motivated, they still have Crosby, Kunitz, Staal, Guerin, Goligoski and a bunch more solid NHL players and best of all, they’ll be in a foul mood after those two losses. Furthermore, the Bruins have scored eight goals in its last six games and if you throw out its last game against the Sabres in which they scored four, the Bruins would have four goals in its last five games. This is a Boston team that is struggling miserably to score goals and to win games. In fact, the B’s have just two wins over its last six and one of those was at home against the then flu-ridden Oilers. So, Boston beat the Sabres and the Pens have dropped two straight and suddenly the Bruins woes are over? I don’t think so. Oh, lest we forget that Pens are still 7-2 on the road. Play: Pittsburgh +1.27 (Risking 2 units).

TORONTO -½ +1.22 over Minnesota (REG) Pinnacle
It would appear that the Maple Leafs finally have an answer to what has ailed them for years. Jonas Gustavsson has been terrific the past few games and he’s just getting better. Gustavsson is big, he’s quick and he’s very tough to beat. In fact, the Leafs have allowed just five goals against in its last three games. Even more important is the confidence Gustavsson gives the team, as they’re no longer deflated by bad goals and paying for every mistake. The Leafs have picked up points in seven straight games and a ton of pressure has been relieved in the process. Phil Kessel back in the line-up has also made a huge difference and suddenly, the Leafs look like a whole different team. Meanwhile, the Wild are 1-8 on the road. Offensively, they’re near the bottom of the league with just 36 goals in 16 games and only St. Louis, Carolina and Nashville have fewer. The Leafs are well-rested, they’re confident, they’re scoring goals, the defense and goaltending is dramatically improved and they’ll be playing to an enthusiastic and jacked up crowd. Play: Toronto -½ +1.22 (Risking 2 units).

MONTREAL +1.08 over Calgary (REG) Pinnacle
The Flames 10-4-1-0 record is impressive indeed but this team is not and the record is one that is misleading. In Calgary’s recent 3-2 OT win over Dallas they were outshot 40-23. In its last game against the Rangers, a 3-1 win, they were outplayed and out-shot again 33-22. Last week at home in a 3-1 loss against the Red Wings they managed just 21 shots on net. In that bizarre 6-5 loss to the Blackhawks in which they led 5-0, the Flames were outshot 39-20. Early in the year, Montreal went into Calgary and lost but they outplayed the Flames like so many other have this season. Now the oddsmakers have made the Flames an enticing -½ +1.46 and that my friends tells me that the books will gladly accept all bets on the Flames. The Habs have been unimpressive at best but they brought up some kids (Ryan White and especially Mathieu Carle) that have given them some spark and look a lot better than guys like Hal Gill and Ryan O'Byrne. The line says Canadiens and I’ll gladly go with that. Play: Montreal +1.08 (Risking 2 units).


NBA
Houston/DALLAS over 200½ Pinnacle
Houston is no longer a team that thinks defense first. This is the new-look Rockets that like to move quickly and efficiently and it’s paying off. In fact, the Rockets have won four of its last five and every game over that stretch has gone over the total. In a game in Portland in which the total was 187, the two teams went over the number by 30 points. The Mav’s, too, like to play an up-tempo style and unless both teams are ice cold this one should soar over as well. Josh Howard is back for the Mav’s and will play his second game of the year after scoring 16 vs the Raps on Saturday. The Mav’s have not hit their stride offensively yet but this is a game they’ll have plenty of great looks and easy layups because that’s the way the Rockets play it. Play: Houston/Dallas over 200½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).