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Re: 11-14-09
Feist GOY- Oregon
Feist GOY- Oregon
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Re: 11-14-09
B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G
6* W ido w W ise guy 20 09 CF B DO G OF THE YE AR on NC State +8.5(-110 at bookm)
NC State is very dangerous in the role of the underdog. They are dangerous in the second half of the season as they continue playing their best football in November. The Wolf Pack are a perfect 8-0 ATS in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. NC State is 6-0 ATS after having lost 4 out of their last 5 games over the last 3 seasons. The Wolf Pack are showing unbelievable value here Saturday, so much that we believe they represent the best underdog for the entire 2009 college football season. Russell Wilson is the real deal, throwing for 2,351 yards and 24 touchdowns compared to 9 interceptions this season. NC State scores 33.7 points/game and with this offense, they are never out of a ball game. Clemson allows a ridiculous 30.3 points/game on the road this season, so they'll have their hands full to say the least with this Wolf Pack offense. Clemson has played 3 road games this season, and all 3 have been decided by exactly 3 points with losses to Maryland and Georgia Tech and an overtime win against Miami. We see this game being decided by less than a touchdown, with NC State likely pulling off the upset. The Wolfpack are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog. Take NC State and the points.Comment
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Re: 11-14-09
B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G
4* on Ho ust on -4.5(+100 at 5dimes)
Houston should be a much heavier favorite Saturday as they travel to Central Florida. The Cougars are 8-1 this season, they have the best offense in the country behind Heisman Candidate Case Keenum. UCF is just 5-4 this season, scoring a mere 21.8 points/game. They don't have the offense to keep up with a Houston team putting up 42.1 points/game and 578 yards/game of total offense. Houston has beaten some very good teams on the road this year, winning at Oklahoma State, at Mississippi State and at Tulsa. Those 3 teams are all better than UCF, and when you throw in their win over Texas Tech it's clear that the Cougars are the real deal. UCF is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in home games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992. But the best trend of all is that UCF is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) in home games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better since 1992. The Knights gave up 470 passing yards to Colt McCoy and the Longhorns last week, and now they have to deal with the best passing team in the nation. This game has blowout written all over it. Take Houston and lay the points.Comment
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Re: 11-14-09
B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G
4* on K ent uc ky -3(-110 at betus)
Kentucky is playing their best football of the season right now, winning 3 of their last 4 games. They sit at 5-4 heading into this game with Vanderbilt, and they certainly want to clinch a bowl berth with a win Saturday. Kentucky watched Vanderbilt clinch a bowl game on their home turf last year in a 24-31 loss, and we feel they are highly motivated to return the favor this time around. Vandy has lost 6 straight games and have nothing to play for. Kentucky has played some of their best football on the road this year, going 2-1 away from home and allowing 14.0 points/game. Against a Vanderbilt offense that averages just 16.7 points/game, the Wildcats should shut 'em down Saturday. Vanderbilt is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Take Kentucky and lay the points.Comment
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Re: 11-14-09
B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G
4* on S out her n M is s -3(-109 at 5dimes)
Southern Miss should roll right over Marshall this weekend on the road. The Golden Eagles are a bit underrated right now after several brutal losses to fall to 5-4 this season. They have 3 losses by 7 points or less this season. They are 0-4 on the road, and we cannot see them losing 5 straight away from home because of the talent this team possesses. The road team has won 3 of the last 4 in this series, with Southern Miss winning each of their last 2 trips to Marshall. Southern Miss has had 2 weeks to steam over their loss to an 8-1 Houston team on the road last time out, losing 43-50 on a touchdown in the final 20 seconds. They will use this bye week to get ready for an overmatched Marshall team. Southern Miss scored 33.9 points/game and puts up 431 total yards/game. Compare that to Marshall, who is mustering just 20.8 points/game and 326 total yards/game and you can see why this is such a mismatch Saturday. The Golden Eagles are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0. Take Southern Miss and lay the points.Comment
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Re: 11-14-09
B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G
4* on G eo rgi a -4(-108 at 5dimes)
This is a very generous line Saturday as the Bulldogs host the Auburn Tigers. Georgia has won the last 3 in this rivalry, and you can chalk up a 4th straight Saturday. They beat the Tigers at home in 2007 by a final of 45-20 as mere 2.5-point favorites. Auburn's defense is the reason they cannot compete at Georgia this weekend. The Tigers have allowed 30 or more points in 5 of their last 8 games, and 20 or more in all 8. They even gave up 31 points to Furman last week. Georgia's defense has been stout, especially at home where they are giving up just 18.5 points/game and have posted a 3-1 home record. Auburn has been blown out in their last 2 road games, losing 23-44 at Arkansas and losing 10-31 at LSU. Georgia won at Arkansas 52-41 and lost to LSU at home 13-20 to give you a couple common opponents, which clearly gives the Bulldogs the edge. The Tigers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games. Take Georgia and lay the points.Comment
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Re: 11-14-09
Scott Rickenbach
Game: Miami FL at North Carolina Nov 14 2009 3:30PM
Prediction: Miami FL
Reason: Scott Rickenbach’s College Football Game #189 - 10* (Top Play) Miami-Florida Hurricanes (-) @ North Carolina @ 3:30 ET – RATING SYSTEM: Plays range from 6* up to 10*. The 6*, 7*, and 8* picks are the normal, daily play ratings. The 9* and 10* picks are the higher-rated plays and are Top Plays! A 10* Top Play is rare and, of course, is a level above a 9* Top Play!
We are getting line value here because of the Canes poor history at Chapel Hill. The Hurricanes 0-3 all-time in Chapel Hill but that streak is coming to an end on Saturday afternoon. Miami has a huge edge in talent as well as speed and that will be a difference maker. We are well aware of the fact that the Tar Heels defense has performed very well this season but their stats have certainly been helped by playing a number of struggling offenses. Even in their biggest win this season (over the Hokies) they took advantage of a Virginia Tech offense that has struggled often this season. We simply feel that the Tar Heels offense is incapable of stepping up and overcoming a more talented team offensively. It’s bad enough that the Tar Heels lost 16 to 3 to Virginia this season but their two games against more respectable foes is what really tells the story. The Tar Heels lost by a combined score of 54 to 34 against Georgia Tech and Florida State. Even in though the Seminoles only beat North Carolina by three points, the Noles did outgain the Heels by over 100 yards in the game. The Tar Heels, led by QB T.J. Yates, do have an issue with RB Shaun Draughn being out. Yes, Ryan Houston came in and had a big day on the ground last week but that was against Duke which is no Miami! This could put more pressure on Yates this week and he does have more int’s than td’s this season.
The Tar Heels offense has already let them down on more than one occasion. Other than blowout wins weaker foes like the Citadel, East Carolina, and Georgia Southern, the Heels averaged just 15 points per game in their other six games! Conversely, the Hurricanes offense has proven much stronger. Other than struggling against the Hokies tough defense, the Canes other eight games have seen them be quite successful as they’ve 35.5 points per game in those eight games! On the season, the Hurricanes have averaged over 400 yards per game while the Tar Heels, even with some “stat padding” against weaker foes, are still averaging less than 300 yards per game this season. Miami’s first four games this season were against ranked foes and yet the Canes won three of them. Even in a loss to Clemson this season the Hurricanes put up 37 points (it was an overtime game but only three of those points game in OT). More than half of the Canes foes this season have been held under 21 points and the Heels just won’t have the offense to keep up here.
This is a huge revenge game for the Hurricanes as they blew a 14 point lead last season in Miami and the Tar Heels got the winning touchdown with less than a minute to go. Miami head coach Randy Shannon was a player and an assistant under North Carolina head coach Butch Davis when he was at Miami. Coach Shannon certainly has the much better talent and the disparities in offense here are going to be enough to finally push Shannon’s Canes over the top in this match-up! That revenge factor is what helps insure the focus of the Canes here. Yes, if Georgia Tech beats Duke early that ends the Canes chances of getting to an ACC Title Game but this team still has it’s sights sets on a 10-win season and keeping hopes alive for a BCS Bowl. The Hurricanes have been burned by tight losses in their recent match-ups in this series and they know they have a chance to wreck North Carolina’s final home game this season. That is an opportunity that Coach Shannon and his players will not let pass them by as their get their revenge for last season’s bitter home defeat.
We are aware of the injury to LB Sean Spence of the Canes but we also feel that still having Darryl Sharpton, Colin McCarthy, and Ramon Buchanan in the linebacking group means that this trio will fare just fine against the pedestrian Tar Heels offense. Also, on the injury front, RB Javarris James is back in form and ready to roll for this game as is RB Graig Cooper who enjoyed a huge game last week as he is healthy again too. Keep in mind that RB Damien Berry has been huge in short yardage situations and has scored 6 TD’s while 6’8 TE Jimmy Graham has also been a great target to have in the red zone! The Canes have edges all over the field in this one and it will translate to a solid road win as they get their revenge in a big way. Play Miami minus the short number as a 10* Top Play selectionComment
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Re: 11-14-09
TRACE ADAMS
2000* - Auburn Tigers, 500* - Kentucky Wildcats Both schools beat up on Little Sisters of the Poor last weekend, as Auburn dumped Furman 63-31, while Georgia blanked Tennessee Tech 38-0. Not sold on Georgia's defense being "fixed" just because they pitched a much-needed shutout, as the Bulldogs have only 8 takeaways this season in their 9 games played.
Auburn is in triple-revenge against Georgia, so they should be extra-motivated for this contest. Plus Coach Chizik's team is playing for their injured CB Zaccheus Etheridge who suffered a serious neck injury at the start of the month.
Georgia has 21 turnovers this season, and are 0-3 against the spread at home this season, and just 1-7 against the spread their last 8 at home! Throw in the fact QB Cox ain't exactly playing stellar football, and the Tigers become a very dangerous dog if you ask me.
Triple-revenge works just fine tonight in Athens.
Take Auburn plus the points.
2000? - Auburn Tigers
Early day game will see Kentucky take care of offensively-inept Vanderbilt in Nashville.
Kentucky is a win away from becoming bowl-eligible, and they are seeking revenge for last season's loss to Vandy in Lexington.
The Wildcats have covered 4 in a row away from home, and they have also gone 3-0 against the spread as a road favorite since 2006.
The Commodores have failed 7 straight lined games at home since last season, and having to battle the bruising attacks of Georgia Tech, and Florida the last 2 weeks should have the 'Dores pretty ripe for the picking today by Rich Brooks' team.
Go ahead an lay the small road chalk as Kentucky starts our day with the win and cover.
500? - Kentucky WildcatsComment
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Re: 11-14-09
Karl Garrett
Karl Garrett 50 DIMER - SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS......10 DIMER - STANFORD CARDINAL 50 DIMER - SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS
Sure, the Gamecocks have some injuries they are dealing with, but after getting trounced the last 2 years by the Gators, it is time for Spurrier to inspire the troops for a hug effort this Saturday at home.
South Carolina has played 3 of their last 4 away from home, and not surprisingly have lost 3 of those 4. Back at home they will be able to get up for an inspired effort against the Gators who have no passing game to speak of.
The 'Cocks are looking to become bowl-eligible, and while the outright may be a longshot, Carolina is 3-1 against the spread as a double-digit home dog since 1999.
Florida has failed to cover their last 3 tries as a favorite of 15-points or more, and I don't see them covering this one either.
Take South Carolina as this game stays closer than the 56-6 romp the Gamecocks were handed last year at the Swamp!
10 DIMER - STANFORD CARDINAL
I don't get this line, as Stanford's upset win over Oregon should be proof enough the Tree is for real, and USC's failure to cover for a 4th straight game should be proof enough the Trojans are being asked to cover inflated numbers!
You need more numbers?
Stanford has more than held their own against their conference rival, as the Cardinal is 4-1 against the spread the last 5 series meetings, and have won OUTRIGHT in 3 of their last 5 visits to the City of Angels!
USC is on a 3-10 spread slide in the regular season their last 13 lined games, and a lousy 2-7 versus the line this season!
Stanford's 6 straight up wins this year are the most for this program since the 2001 season. Again, laying double-digits with this SoCal edition has proven to be a money-burner.
Don't do it!
Take Stanford plus the points.Comment
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Re: 11-14-09
CHUCK O BRIEN
For Saturday's selection, take Mississippi State plus the points against Alabama.
I got royally hosed out of a 40 Dime winner on LSU plus the points over Alabama last week when the incompetent SEC officials refused to rule a clear-cut interception in favor of the Tigers. It almost certainly cost me the spread-cover. After watching that game, I’m even more convinced than ever that the Crimson Tide are living on borrowed time, and with the way their offense is performing right now, there’s no way this team should be laying double digits, especially on the road.
After averaging 40 ppg in their first five wins, the Tide have managed just 22, 20, 12 and 24 in their last four (all against SEC teams). And they could’ve VERY easily lost the last two at home, needing two blocked field goals to survive Tennessee (12-10 final) before struggling with LSU last week. As for Mississippi State, don’t be deceived by the 4-5 record. This team plays very, very hard, as four Top 25 teams that previously went to Starkville this year can attest (the Bulldogs gave LSU, Georgia Tech Houston and Florida fits, losing to all three, but by margins of just 4, 11, 7 and 10 points).
Mississippi State (5-2 ATS last seven overall; 4-1 as a ‘dog) has the running attack (219.2 rushing yards per game) to be able to shorten this game, which makes the points we’re getting even more valuable. Also, the Bulldogs have sprung the upset against Alabama twice in the last three years, and in the past four meetings (when Mississippi State’s program was WAY down), the Crimson Tide have mustered two offensive touchdowns, and one of those was on a two-yard drive after a long punt return.
Alabama, which has already clinched the SEC West title, faces a potential letdown situation here, while this is another bowl-type home game for the Bulldogs (10-4 ATS last 14 vs. ‘Bama), who will give it their all just as they previously have against Florida, Houston, Georgia Tech and LSU.
3* Mississippi State
on a 1* to 5* ScaleComment
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