11-14-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-14-09

Steve Duemig

Saturday sweep
40 Dime Missouri



K St has become a very popular darling of the public this year and for good reason. Bill Snyder returned from the retirement home and they are winning football games. This week they opened as a 2.5 point fav and now, even though they are picking up public money at a 70% clip we see the line has moved toward Mizzu. As you know these reverse line moves are my favorite because they are telling the rue value that you have in the line. I expect more of the public money to contiue to flow toward K St and by the time this closes we could be getting points again. Even so, I will take Gabbert here and their passing game over a mostly run oriented K St team



15 Dime California



We saw last week AZ lay a beat down on Wazzu, but everyone has this year. We saw Cal take it on the chin and the head (Jahvid Best) in a 17 pt loss at Ore. St

The line comes out on Sunday and what do we see? Az favored by 2.5!! NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND!! AZ is still on the road and has yet to play the toughest part of their PAC 10 schedule. Cal is at home where it plays much better. .

A look today at the line now shows Cal as the favorite!!! But they are not laying a killer number it it may move back to AZ anyway. But wait, AZ is picking up 70 % of the spread bets, 82% of money line bets and 80% of parlay bets. This is the biggest reverse line moves of the season and we can still lay at 3 or lower. The books made a mistake opening up AZ as the fav here and they realize it now. When you see a favorite change like this the wrong team was favored.



5 Dime Stanford



Stanford can actually boast about the better freshman QB in Luck and the best RB in Gerhart, who had 223 yr against Oregon last week, in this matchup with USC has major defensive problems and a freshman QB of it's own. This is simply too many points to be laying here with USC, who have not been very good ATS wit no covers in their last 4 and 7/8 on the year. Coach Harbaugh has his team humming.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-14-09

Executive
Hoops
250 Kent St

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-14-09

Doc's NBA 11/14

3U celtics gm over 191
4U bobcats +2.5
3U heat gm under 179.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-14-09

Matt Fargo

8 nc st
4 duke
4 kansas
4 memphis
4 miss st
4 utah
4 kentucky

5 dayton cbb

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-14-09

Score
400 Oregon
300 Fresno St
300 Ariz

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-14-09

heisman trophy club

usc/20*
ohio st/10*
und ucla/10*
und rice/10*

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-14-09

Indian Cowboy saturday bball
4 Unit Play. #527. Take Cornell +7.5 over Alabama (Saturday @ 2pm est). It will take some time for this Tide to adapt to Anthony Grant's style of play. A team that does not need some time is Cornell who returns three players who could be the Ivy League Player of the year as they are loaded with talent up front. Yes, Cornell. This team has veteran leadership and has played together for quite some time and they are not learning to adapt to a new offense here. They had a great run last year prior to losing in the Dance to Tennessee. Heck, this is a game the Big Red could win outright if they stick to their game plan as it will take some time before Anthony Grant is able to mold his team to his style of play. Plus, it will take some time as Grant recruits down in the south. But, until then, I will take the veteran Big Red Players here who have great coaching, have plenty of talent and experience coming back and that will serve them well here as Alabama is running a new offense and defense this year. The Big Red are also solid historically on Saturday games as they are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 games. Plus, this is a lovely fade of the board similar to Morehead State which backdoored Kentucky burying the public recently as this too is a game in which the public is on the Tide to a similar tune of 81%.

4 Unit Play. #518. Take the Milwaukee Bucks -7 over the Golden State Warriors (Saturday @ 8:30pm est). At the end of the day, this is not a lot of points to lay here with the Milwaukee Bucks. Bear in mind that this team is 4-2 and Brandon Jennings comes off a 32 point night in his last contest. He is getting more comfortable leading this team and this team is consequently winning. Heck, this team beat Denver at home, New York by 15, Minnesota on the road by 15 and Detroit at home by 11. In fact, if this team faced a -10 point spread against Detroit at home earlier this year at home they would have covered it so its not far off for them to cover the spread placed on them today. The Bucks have a good inside and outside game here with their bigs and Jennings and with Golden State coming off a big win over New York, I like them to have a bit of a let down here. State has not won back to back games all year and I believe Milwaukee's defense will be a nice contrast to the Big Apple's lackadaisical defense at times. The Bucks are 5-0 ATS of late and the Warriors are 3-7-1 ATS as Underdogs by this margin.

Good luck,
IC

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-14-09

Kyle Bales

13-7 (65%) this week.



Notre Dame Fighting Irish at #8 Pittsburgh Panthers

Write-up:

This proud Pittsburgh team comes in boasting its highest ranking in 20
years and their chances of representing the Big East in a major bowl
game are growing stronger by the week. Pitt has had the Big East in a
choke hold this season winning its five conference games by an average
of 17.8 points, and piled up 481 yards last Saturday in a 37-10 rout
of Syracuse. The Panthers have the 4th hardest active schedule,
according to the NCAA, left to play and this team is definitely not
looking past the Irish. “Everybody is excited about Notre Dame,”
tailback Dion Lewis said. “We’ve got to have a good week of practice,
bring our ‘A’ game. … We’ve got to keep coming.” Having Lewis be up
for this game is all the confidence I need in the Panthers. Last week
in a 23-21 home loss to Navy, The Midshipmen gained 6.1 yards per
carry and racked up 348 yards on the ground. If the Irish defense
continues to not be able to stop the run then this game will be over
by halftime. Lewis is on the verge of breaking many of Tony Dorsett’s
and LeSean McCoy’s Pitt freshman rushing records and a big game
tonight will leave his mark. With Lewis running down their neck this
will allow QB Bill Stull’s to pass efficiently, especially the deep
stuff as Notre Dame’s defense ranks 88th against the pass (237.4).
Notre Dame's QB Jimmy Clausen will have his hands full against a Pitt
defense that’s first in the nation with 39 sacks, led by junior end
Greg Romeus’ 7 1/2. Pittsburgh’s pass defense has also been sound
allowing only 880 yards and three touchdowns through the air in the
past five games. Pittsburgh easily covers the spread tonight and sends
Notre Dame to 1-8 ATS their last 9.

Prediction:

Notre Dame - 13

Pittsburgh - 24

Play On:

25* Pittsburgh Panthers -6.5
NOTE: Buy the half point if at 7.






Indiana Hoosiers at #19 Penn State

Write-up:

Normally I would love a team in this situation such as Penn State's,
but late in the season and Penn State's Rose Bowl hopes gone I don't
see the Nittany Lions being up for this game. Indiana comes in trying
to become bowl eligible and needs to upset Penn State and knock off
Purdue next week. Now, I'm not saying the Hoosiers will beat Penn
State but this is just too many points to lay. Indiana has played well
this season when it has believed in itself. Whether that is hanging
for Michigan until the final drive of the game or battling Iowa for
three quarters or taking Wisconsin to the wire last week, when IU
comes into a game believing it can win, the Hoosiers usually make a
game of it. When they don’t believe they can win, well, you get
results like Indiana put up against Ohio State. Three of the Hoosiers
five conference losses have been by three points or less. I expect the
Hoosier O-line to protect QB Ben Chappell well as Indiana has allowed
fewer sacks than any other Big Ten team and has given up just 11 sacks
all season. Penn State doesn’t feature an explosive offense to cover a
spread this big and their defense has been less then stellar giving up
362.0 yards per game the past two weeks.

Prediction:

Indiana - 17

Penn State - 28

Play On:

15* Indiana Hoosiers +25





New Orleans Hornets at Atlanta Hawks

We played against this Hornets team last night winning our 15* on the
Portland Trailblazers -1.5 (Our top plays are 4-1 (80%) this week) and
coasted to an easy victory. I knew it would be a hard night for the
Hornets playing their first game without longtime coach Byron Scott
(Which I feel was a very bad move and guarantee to see Chris Paul get
out of town when his contract is up.) And tonight they are without
Chris Paul with an ankle injury. Even before Paul was hurt Friday, the
Hornets struggled offensively. They shot 36.7 percent from the field
overall while recording their lowest point total of the season. While
watching the Hawks beat Boston 97-86 on the road last night was one of
the best looking basketball teams I've seen all season. They Pulled
away in the second half and held this All-Star Celtic squad to 16
points in the fourth quarter. The Hornets have also lost six of the
last seven road games.

Prediction:

New orleans - 81

Atlanta - 117

Play On:

15* Atlanta Hawks -9.5
Note: Get this quick as the line will skyrocket.




Idaho Vandals at #6 Boise St. Broncos

Write-up:

Boise State needs a convincing win to earn a spot in the Bowl
Championship Series. With an opportunity to show a national television
audience why it should once again be a BCS buster, Boise State didn’t
look overly impressive in pulling out a 45-35 victory over Louisiana
Tech last Friday night (We won a 10* on LA Tech 21.5 on this game).
Against a team which came in with a 3-5 record, Boise State was
clinging to a 30-28 lead early in the fourth quarter before the
defense buckled down and the offense came up with touchdowns on
consecutive drives. Today the annual Gem State rivalry is renewed in
front of a national television audience for the first time in history
(ESPNU). This year’s game is the first time that both schools enter
the game with a winning record since 1999 and it will mark the first
time that both schools will play in a bowl game in the same season.
This will be a big step up today for Boise St. as Idaho has as many
wins as the Broncos’ last three opponents combined. Idaho won’t
announce which quarterback will play against Boise State until game
time. Starter Nathan Enderle has an injured shoulder and he sat out
last week’s ball game against Fresno State. Backup Brian Reader took
every snap against Fresno State and the offense changes very little
with Reader in the game. If I knew for sure Enderle was playing then I
would rate this game much higher. The vandals will be hyped for this
one and you just can't spot a team that scores 30.8 ppg 31.5 points.

Prediction:

Idaho - 21

Boise St. - 35

Play On:

Idaho Vandals +31.5



Free Play

Utah Utes at TCU

The Horned Frogs have looked impressive in climbing the BCS standings to No. 4, the highest ever for a team from a non-BCS conference. Only one team stands in their way of a Mountain West Conference title, the Utes. "We are the defending champion," Utah coach Kyle Whittingham said in a rare moment of bravado to the Salt Lake Tribune. "The championship trophy is in this building, and somebody has to take that away from us. That is the first thing we tell our guys. TCU is a good football team, we respect them and they are hitting all phases, but the bottom line is we have played some good football this year as well and we'll show up on Saturday night, line up and see what happens." The Utes have to protect QB Jordan Wynn and prepare him for TCU's speed and ability to break on the football. The defense can't let the Horned Frogs control the line of scrimmage, especially in the red zone. If the Utes can duplicate their plan from a year ago forcing TCU to kick field goals and keep the game close. Their experience in close games could become a huge factor. This Utah program has defeated the Frogs in each of the past three seasons. Too many points today in this close football game.

Prediction

Utah - 13

TCU - 14

1* opinion Utah Utes +20

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-14-09

Wunderdog

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Game: New York Islanders at Florida (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 5.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)

Aside from a four game stretch where the Panthers generated 16 goals, this team has had a lot of trouble finding the net. Over their other 12 games, the Panthers have found the net just 25 times or a tick above two per contest. Goaltender Thomas Vokoun has really been hot as well as he has recorded shutouts in three of his last four behind the net. The Islanders were a mess to start the season, but have played much better hockey of late and have actually built a winning record after a disasterous start that saw them find the win column just one time in their first 10 games. The Islanders have seen themselves in tough tight low scoring games, when facing an opponent that allowed two or less goals in their last game and have played four straight to the under off that situation, while the Panthers have been under in four of their last five, and 8-3-1 to the under in Vokoun's last 12 behind the net. I like the UNDER in this one.
Game: Calgary at Toronto (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 6 -120 (risk 3 to win 2.5)

No matter how you slice it the Toronto Maple Leafs are a poor hockey team and have just one win on home ice to show for eight games. This is a team that allowed three goals or more in 11 of their first 12 played, but things have been getting better as they have now pared that down to just two of their last five. The Flames rarely get into shootouts and for the most part they are in tight games that come down to a big play by one side or the other. That is evidenced by the fact that their last seven games have seen a grand total of 25 goals scored, or just 3.5 a game. That's a long way from the six offered here and it is also the reason they have played in seven straight that have gone under the total. This one is set too high and I'll play it UNDER the total.
Game: Anaheim at Detroit (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 5.5 +100 (risk 3 to win 3)

The Detroit Redwings lost just nine at home all of last season and have suffered just a shootout loss on home ice thus far this season. Just one opponent all season long has topped the two goal mark on the Wings at home, excluding a game in Sweden that was listed as a home game. The Ducks have been on the road for five games over the course of the last five weeks and not a single one has gone over the total as they tend to play conservative on the road and tighten the "D". That has certainly been the case as well when they come to Detroit as this series has seen the under prevail to the tune of a 15-5-1 mark in the last 21 played here. The Ducks have an amazing run when they play with zero days rest as the under has prevailed to a mark of 76-36-11 over their last 123. Hard to argue with the way these teams have approached the games here in Detroit, as well as the Duck's elongated history without rest to play a resounding number of games to the UNDER, which is the call here.
Game: Los Angeles Kings at Tampa Bay (7:25 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Tampa Bay -1.5 goals +250 (puckline) (risk 2 to win 5)

The Tampa Bay Lightning have been bringing it at home where they remain unbeaten at 5-0-3 through their first eight games. The Kings have run hot and cold surrounding a pair of four game winning streaks with the remainder showing just three wins in 11 tries. They are in the worst stretch of the season right now dropping three of four, but the three losses have been by a combined 12 goals. This team has already suffered seven losses on the season by two goals or more and when they are playing poorly they have been totally uncompetitive. Tampa Bay has the hothand at home, the Kings have been getting humiliated of late and the Lightning own a 7-1-1 mark in the last nine here as it is, catching this one just right. I'll go with Tampa Bay on the puckline.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-14-09

Scott Rickenbach’s NHL 7* (Regular Play) Calgary Flames Money Line (-) @ Toronto @ 7 ET – RATING SYSTEM: Plays range from 6* up to 10*. The 6*, 7*, and 8* picks are the normal, daily play ratings. The 9* and 10* picks are the higher-rated plays and are Top Plays! A 10* Top Play is rare and, of course, is a level above a 9* Top Play!

Taking good teams off of losses has served us well through the years in all sports including hockey. Here we get to take a focused Flames club that was 11-4-1 on the season before yesterday’s shutout loss and we get to go against a Maple Leafs team that has won just 3 of their 17 games! Talk about value! This is it to the extreme and we certainly understand what the Maple Leafs backers are looking at. They know about the history that the Flames have in Toronto and it’s not good. However, to be able to take the much stronger team here and lay a very small price is simply an exceptional value. Keep in mind, the Flames recent history in Montreal wasn’t good either and they beat them 1-0 on Tuesday. Then, even though they lost last night at Buffalo, the Flames did earn a point with a solid effort.

Calgary has been getting exceptional goaltending and we look for more of the same tonight. Although the Flames power play has struggled, keep in mind, they are now against the team with the worst penalty killing stats in the league. Don’t be surprised if the Flames find a lot more offensive opportunities tonight as they take on the porous defense of the Maple Leafs. Yes, the history in Toronto for Calgary is not good but the Flames are 5-1-2 on the road this season and the Maple Leafs have just one win in their eight home games. This is the Flames final road game as they don’t play again until Tuesday and that match is at home against the Avalanche. Calgary was upset about not getting the full two points at Buffalo last night and they want to end their road trip on a positive note. Toronto should prove to be the perfect host for the Flames to visit! Play Calgary on the money line as a 7* Regular Play selection.






Players NHL 8* Sat OVER 5.5 goals in Philly on Nov 14th
Scott Rickenbach’s NHL 8* (Regular Play) OVER the total in Philadelphia vs Buffalo @ 7 ET – RATING SYSTEM: Plays range from 6* up to 10*. The 6*, 7*, and 8* picks are the normal, daily play ratings. The 9* and 10* picks are the higher-rated plays and are Top Plays! A 10* Top Play is rare and, of course, is a level above a 9* Top Play!

After only two goals were scored in yesterday’s game in Buffalo (the Sabres won 2-1 in a shootout), look for a lot more offense here as Buffalo heads down to Philly for this one. Yesterday’s game was a tough, physical game for the Sabres. After garnering the tight win over the Flames yesterday, we would not be surprised to see the Sabres defense let up a little bit here. It’s just a natural reaction after a tight win in a physical game like Buffalo played yesterday. The other issue for the Sabres today is goaltending. If they choose to go with Patrick Lalime, he’s struggled against the Flyers in his career and he’s also had a rough season so far in very limited action this year. Additionally, last season did not go well for Lalime.

If the Sabres turn to their #1 goalie, Ryan Miller, note that in his only other back to back starts he was awful in the second game of the back to back and was lifted before he even completed two periods. The Sabres are definitely poised to give up some goals to the high-powered Flyers. Philadelphia’s 3.67 goals per game average ranks second in the league. The issue for the Flyers today will be slowing down the Sabres. This will be the 4th time this calendar year that these clubs have faced off and each game has gone over the total with goals scored ranging from 7 to 10 per game! The Sabres have scored 11 goals in those four games and the Flyers have scored 22. Another high-scoring affair is on tap here. Play OVER the total in Philadelphia as an 8* Regular Play selection.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-14-09

RON RAYMOND 5* NHL SATURDAY NIGHT TOP PLAY WINNER


Pick # 1 New York Islanders / Florida Panthers Under 5.5 -110

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-14-09

Marco D'Angelo | CFB Side Sat, 11/14/09 - 8:00 PM Ôƒ
double-dime bet 161 Notre Dame 7.0 (-110) Bodog vs 162 Pittsburgh

[YoungTRK484]

Re: 11-14-09

Anyone have "Big Red's" play on the TCU-Utah game tonight on Offshoreinsiders.com? Thanks in advance.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-14-09

Originally Posted by manchild View Post
Ras?
#566 Nevada -11'
#531 UC River +17
#549 Loy-Mary -3