11-21-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-21-09

Wunderdog Sports

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Air Force vs. BYU (NCAAF) - Nov 21, 2009 3:30 PM EST
Play: Point Spread: 10/-103 Air Force Pick Title: Air Force at B Y U

The Cougars looked like a BCS contender when they shocked Oklahoma 14-13 in the season opener. The shine has come off as the Sooners proved to be a much lesser team than most anticipated, disappearing from the National Title picture themselves. BYU has feasted on a lot of cupcakes since, but were humiliated by the two teams that had a chance to give them a game. They suffered blowout losses to Florida State and TCU, allowing 92 points to those two teams. Now they must face an Air Force team with a great defense (#9 in the nation in points allowed) and an improving offense. Air Force took TCU to the wire before bowing 20-17. No one has scored more than 23 points on this team all season, not even TCU. The potent Horned Frogs offense (averaging 39 points per game) were held to 20 points by the Falcons - their second lowest total of the season! So, getting 10 points in this one is big. The Falcons' offense is coming on and they have the defense that is capable of holding down BYU's offense that has shown warts against top defenses. Air Force is quietly building a very respectable program under the radar. They are 22-11 ATS overall the past three seasons. Meanwhile, BYU is 2-11 ATS since last season in conference games and they are 4-22 ATS in their last 26 games following a two-game road trip. BYU has the bigger name here, but maybe not the better team. Take the Academy plus the generous points.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-21-09

Nick Parsons 11/21/09 **CODE BLUE* GOY

TITLE: **CODE BLUE** 2009 BLOWOUT GAME OF YEAR! REASON FOR PICK: For a number of different reasons I believe Nevada is going to absolutely stomp New Mexico State as it pushes to remain perfect and to erase a big upset loss from last year:

Nevada won't "look past" New Mexico State to its game against Boise State next week because the Aggies upset the Wolf Pack 48-45 in Reno last season, giving New Mexico State its first -- and only -- road win in WAC play since joining the league in 2005.

Coach Chris Ault's comments on his teams game plan; "We better not look past it. We're not that good. We have to focus on what we're trying to do, how we're trying to get things done and take care of business." Spoken like a true motivator.

The Wolf Pack has scored at least 35 points in six of their last 7 games and has won seven straight.

Their top two rushers (RB, Vai Taua and QB, Colin Kaepernick) have both rushed for over 100 yards, and both average better than 7.8 yards per rush.
Nevada is 5-2 ATS its last seven and 4-2 ATS vs. conference opponents this season.

Over the last two weeks, the Wolf Pack has outscored its opponents 114 to 21.

On the other side of the field: New Mexico State is 2-3-1 ATS its last six overall.

The Aggies defensive line and secondary is going to be overwhelmed by Nevada's running game, just like everyone else has this season.

RB Seth Smith, nursing a shoulder injury suffered Oct. 31 at Ohio State, had just five carries last week at Hawaii and his status this week against Nevada is unclear.

Bottom line: New Mexico State's offense has not scored an offensive TD in four plus games.

The Aggies just finished preparing for and playing against pass happy Hawaii, and will now struggle having to deal with the exact opposite in the Wolf Packs run oriented offense.

With revenge on their mind from last years upset loss and wanting to come into their game vs. Boise State firing on all cylinders, look for NEVADA to rout the Aggies and move to 6-3 ATS their last nine as a favorite and for New Mexico State to fall to 2-4 ATS against conference opponents.

*10*

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-21-09

D@ve M@linksy

5* Rutgers -8
4* Tennessee -17
6* Kentucky +9
4* miss st/Arkansas Under 60.5
4* Uconn/Notre Dame Under 58
6* Texas Tech +7
4* UTEP/Rice Under 68

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-21-09

john ryan 25* GOY


Game: Rutgers at Syracuse Nov 21 2009 3:30PM
Prediction: Syracuse
Reason: Ai Simulator 25* graded play on Syracuse as they host Rutgers set to start at 3:30 EST. AiS shows an 89% probability that Syracuse will lose this game by 8 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 73-29 for 72% winners since 2004. Play against a road team after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread in weeks 10 through 13. Here is a 2nd system that has gone 49-21 for 70% winners since 1992. Play on home dogs of 3.5 to 10 points after having lost 4 out of their last 5 games facing an opponent after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games. Here is a 3rd system that has gone 63-27 ATS for 70% winners since 1999. Play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in conference matchups and is a good offensive team scoring 28-34 PPG facing an average defensive team allowing 21-28 PPG. Here is a 4th system that uses the money line and exploits false favorites with an average play of +149 producing a 51-24 mark for 68% winners over the past 10 seasons. Play on a home team versus the money line after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers facing an opponent after 2 consecutive games where they forced 3 or more turnovers. Rutgers is off a 31-0 pasting of South Florida where they were the beneficiary of four South Florida turnovers. Note that Rutgers is just 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) after a game where they forced 4 or more turnovers since 1992. In Syracuse’s last game they allowed just 34 rushing yards on 35 carries at Louisville. Syracuse is a solid 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) in home games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game since 1992. This play ranks among the top-25 strongest graded plays produced by my AiS spanning more than 16 seasons. The accompanying series of systems and angles serve only to reinforce the strength of this play. Best of Luck to all of us. Take Syracuse.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-21-09

CHICAGO SPORTS CONNECTION

3:30 EST (time change)
#327 RUTGERS -8.5 @ Syracuse

4:30 EST (time change)
#406 MID TENN ST -10 vs Ark St

7:00 EST
#403 UL MONROE-3.5 @ La Lafayette

7:30 EST (time change)
#341 KENTUCKY +9.5 @ Georgia

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-21-09

A.REDD

50 dime
North Carolina

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-21-09

Trace Adams 2000* - Rutgers Scarlet Knights, 500* - Kentucky Wildcats, 500* - Kansas State Wildcats Yes, last week's 500? Pay-After play was Syracuse plus the points at Louisville, and while the Orange covered, they did lose that game, and they scored only 9-points in the process.

That makes 3 straight losses for Coach Marrone's team, and they have scored only 26-points total in those 3 setbacks.

Into town comes a rested-and-ready Rutgers team that is playing just their 2nd game this month, and their first since holding South Florida to 159 yards, and 7 first downs in a 31-0 wax-job.

Rutgers has won and covered their last 3, and they have also won and covered the last 4 series meetings against the Orangemen.

The Knights have also covered 7 in a row on the road, and with Coach Schiano wanting to use this game for recruiting purposes, don't expect any let up by the visitor in this one.

42-15 is my projected final, although I have my doubts the 'Cuse will muster that many points.

2000? - Rutgers Scarlet Knights

So Georgia stuck it to me, and to Auburn last week in Athens. I will still go against this Bulldogs team that played an unusually "clean" game last week as far as penalties, and turnovers are concerned.

Georgia has only covered 1 of their last 8 lined home games, and they do have 21 turnovers on their stat sheet this season.

Kentucky went through a bunch of early season injuries, and now they are reaping the rewards, as the 'Cats depth has been a strong suit down the stretch for UK this season, and I honestly think Kentucky has a shot at the outright here.

The Wildcats are 14-3-1 their last 18 against the spread on the road, and they have covered ALL 3 SEC road games this season as the dog.

Last year a better Georgia team was only able to win 42-38 over Kentucky, I expect around a 4-point final again tonight.

500? - Kentucky Wildcats

Big 12 North Title up for grabs in Lincoln today, and while Nebraska has the home field edge, I think this number is way too high for the Huskers to clear.

Nebraska is just 2-5 against the spread under Bo Pelini when hosting the Big 12, and Kansas State has done a nice job under Bill Snyder covering 4 of their last 6 in the underdog role.

The Cornhuskers have totaled 20-points or less in 4 of their last 5, games, so tell me if they hit that price range again, how are they going to cover this impost?

Exactly, they are NOT going to cover this impost.

Take the points and the Wildcats to keep it tight at Memorial Stadium.

500? - Kansas State Wildcats

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-21-09

Mike Lineback 11/21

Premium Selections

[327] 4* Rutgers -8.5 -105 | 3:30p ET

[370] 4* Texas A & M -5.5 -110 | 3:30p ET

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-21-09

Stephen Nover Saturday's winner ... 75 Dime RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS - I don't see battered and demoralized Syracuse being able to compete at all with Rutgers. The Orangemen can barely dress 50 players with all the injuries they have suffered.

Rutgers cracked the Top 25 and deservedly so. The Scarlet Knights' only two losses have been to top-10 powerhouses Cincinnati and Pittsburgh.

Rutgers has won seven of its last eight games. They are off a confidence-building 31-0 blanking of South Florida, a former top-25 team. The Scarlet Knights have had a couple of extra days of rest and preparation. The schedule has laid out well for them. They will be fresh for this matchup.

That's not the case for Syracuse, which has had more players lost to injuries and suspensions than perhaps any other team.

Just in the last two weeks, the Orangemen have had six players injured severely enough that they are out for the season. Syracuse has a cluster injury problem at nearly every position. The worst, though, was star wide receiver Mike Williams quitting the team. The Orangemen have no offense without him.

Rutgers has allowed just 11.8 points per game during its last eight contests. The Scarlet Knights have forced 28 turnovers during this span. Syracuse has one of the worst turnover ratios in the country.

Rutgers has been a proven profit-maker on the road covering its last seven away matchups. Syracuse is 4-10-1 against the spread the past 15 times it has been a home 'dog.

Syracuse has no bowl possibilities and has lost eight consecutive Big East games. The motivation, talent and situation is all with Rutgers. Look for the Scarlet Knights to win this game handily.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-21-09

Purelock

NCAA-F | Nov 21 '09 (7:00p)
Ul Monroe vs UL Lafayette Ul Monroe -3-110 at bodog

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-21-09

Bob Valentino
Saturday's 30 Dime winner ... 30 DIME: TENNESSEE (minus the points vs. Vanderbilt)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-21-09

Kelso:
100 units UCF -22
100 units UL Monroe -3.2
15 units North Carolina +3.2
5 units Rutgers -8.5
4 units Kentucky +4.5
3 units Kansas State +16.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-21-09

Chris Jordan Saturday's winners ...
400? MISSISSIPPI REBELS - Let me hit the high points ...

Mississippi has been very good at home this season, knocking off SE Louisiana 52-6, UAB 48-13, Arkansas 30-17, Northern Arizona 38-14 and most importantly, Tennessee last week, 42-17. The only setback was to Alabama, a 22-3 on Oct. 10.

And it still stings.

But this team has grown together, and as improved tremendously.

This is the final home game for this team, and I love to play good teams, in important games on Senior Night. That's exactly what this is.

And leading all seniors is Dexter McCluster, who is much more involved in the offense, as evidenced last week, when he posted school records of 282 rushing yards and 324 all-purpose yards against Tennessee. He is averaging 197 rushing yards and 262.3 all-purpose yards with five touchdowns over the last three SEC games. What do you think he is going to do for his career finale at home?

On the other side of the ball, I'm not confident about LSU quarterback Jordan Jefferson getting it done against a good Mississippi defense, which ranks 14th in the nation in pass efficiency and 20th overall against the pass. Ole Miss's defense is 23rd in the nation, while its scoring defense is 12th in allowing just under 16 points per game.

LSU has won six of the last seven and seven of the last nine against the Rebels, so I'm sure Ole Miss is looking to smack this team around while it can. Last season, the Rebels held LSU to 13 points, which snapped the Tigers' school-record streak of game scoring at least 21 points at 31 straight contests. ANd I think this year's version of Ole Miss better.

Take the Rebels

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-21-09

Karl Garrett
50 DIMER - KENTUCKY WILDCATS.....10 DIMER - STANFORD CARDINAL 50 DIMER - KENTUCKY WILDCATS

Georgia got a big monkey off their backs last Saturday night under the lights against Auburn, and while they may win tonight, this impost is simply too big against a dangerous Wildcats team.

Kentucky is a perfect 3-0 against the spread this season on the SEC road, and they are on an overall road lined spread run of 14-3-1 their last 18 games!

Georgia's cover last weekend was their first in their last 8 lined home games, and while the Bulldogs may have done away with their senseless penalties, and turnovers - 21 this year! - for a week, those mistakes have a way of coming back when you least expect them.

The Bulldogs were able to win 42-38 last year in Lexington, but that Georgia team was hands-down better than this year's edition, and I don't see them being so lucky this time around.

UK has their health back, and while their stars were injured, Coach Brooks was able to develop some much-needed depth on the squad.

This game is decided by a field goal, 4-points at most.

Take the 'Cats plus the number.

10 DIMER - STANFORD CARDINAL

The Tree treated me fine last week, and I will go to the well with them again in The Big Game!

Cal's last visit to Palo Alto saw Stanford win 20-13 in Jim Harbaugh's first year at the helm. That cover is part of an 11-game Stanford spread winning streak at home, and right now the Cardinal is not to be messed with.

Toby Gerhart is a beast, and QB Luck is a legitimate threat. That is a deadly combination for the Golden Bears to contend with.

Cal is on a 2-5 spread slide their last 7 on-line, and I have seen them enough this season to know a "soft" team that will cave when their will gets broken.

Look for the marauding Cardinal to break that will tonight, as Stanford's magical mystery tour continues.

Lay the wood.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-21-09

Lenny Stevens

20 kentucky
20 BYU
10 UConn
10 arkansas
10 ole miss