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Re: 11-28-09
a.rREDD
Saturday's Card
100-Dime Duke
a.rREDD
Saturday's Card
100-Dime Duke
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Re: 11-28-09
VR
168 Florida -24.0 (-110) Bookmaker.com vs 167 Florida St.
Analysis:
*** "1st" NCAAFB 3* "TRUE STEAM" GAME OF THE WEEK ***
Last Sunday, we Cashed our 1st NFL "True Steam" GOW...Which was one of those bets that the sportsbooks were actually rooting for the Wiseguys to Win...Because the "Public Money" usually outweighs the "Wiseguy Money" in the NFL...And does so as well in NCAAFB, especially when there are "Marquee" teams involved...or when it's a "Prime-Time" Televised Game...
And once again this week...we are getting down on a Bet, that the books will almost definitely be cheering in as well...Because after having adjusted the number after being "Steamed" by the Betting Syndicates on 2 seperate days...from what I've been told, the "Public Money" continues to come in on the other side...And the books expect that trend to continue as we approach kick-off on Saturday...Which is when the majority of recreational bettors take their positions...
This week, we have an "Early Steam Move" that the Wiseguys absolutely love...Because even though many times, they jump on a "marquee" favorite early...in order to get a better number than the public will later...which both allows them to attempt a "middle" if they want...or to "edge-off" at a better number than what their players are betting...since we all know that almost all of these Outfits book...that is not the case with this bet...
The reason I know this is not simply because I still have plenty of friends who move "steam"...It's also because the Wiseguys went in and bet it on seperate days...After already being aware that the recreational bettors will be on Florida State, because they "perceive" it's too many points...
But the Wiseguys disagree...and according to my own Ratings/Numbers...so do I...
Bottom Line, the Syndicates wasted no time at all laying -21, 21.5, & 22 on FLORIDA as soon as the line went up at CRIS...This forced the adjustment all the way to -23 by the end of the day on Sunday...
But the Outfits weren't finished....because on Monday, they went back and bet FLORIDA -23 & -23.5...at those shops that didn't go immediately to -24...
More importantly, I've even seen a¢s high as -24.5 out there...And the fact that the Wiseguys have not gone ahead to try and work a nice "Middle"...tells me that they really are taking a "Major Position" on this game...With that said, don't be alarmed if you see this number drop some...Because like I said, the "public" bettors are expected to take the other side...And some Outfits may go ahead and attempt a "middle" later, because -21 & +24 or better...is hard to pass up for at least some of the money bet on Florida...
Regardless...I believe we are getting plenty of VALUE even at -24...Because I made my "Fair Line" -24, where it is now...But my "TRUE LINE" was a little higher than -27, and less than -28...Which is more than enough to justify a 3 Unit Bet, when the Wiseguys help Confirm it...
Let's go ahead and lay the chalk with FLORIDA...and see if we can follow up our 1st NFL Winner...with our 1st NCAAFB Winner...of "TRUE STEAM"...VRComment
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Re: 11-28-09
MIKE LINEBACK
Final Report Saturday 11/28
Passing on NBA.
Premium Selections
[144] 4* South Carolina Gamecocks +3.5 -115 | 12:00p ET
[149] 4* Tennessee Volunteers -2.5 -115 | 7:00p ET
[169] 4* Georgia Bulldogs +7.5 -110 | 8:00p ET
[179] 4* Arizona Wildcats -2.5 -125 (1/2 pt buy) | 3:30p ETComment
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Re: 11-28-09
Matt Fargo
GAME: Tennessee @ Kentucky Nov 28, 2009 7:00PM
SPORT: College Football Picks
PICK: Tennessee
Offered at: -3 WSEX
REASON FOR PICK: Kentucky is coming off a win last weekend against Georgia in a game it had no business winning. The Wildcats were outgained by 227 total yards but were fortunate that the Bulldogs gave it up four times in the second half and that has been the problem for them all season and Kentucky was able to take advantage. The Wildcats improved to 7-4 with that victory but I am not sold on them when playing a good team like Tennessee. Five of their wins have come against teams that are not going to the postseason including one FCS team. A team that is three games over .500 on the season should not have a negative yardage differential but that is the case for Kentucky as it is -13.4 ypg on the year and that may seem insignificant but that is not a good sign for a supposed bowl team. Tennessee has had its ups and downs this season but it will avoid a second straight losing season and missed bowl game. This team could be peaking at the right time led by a surging quarterback and another solid defense. Take away that game against Mississippi, which was actually close late in the third quarter before a 21-0 Rebels run ended it, and the other games have been close as three of other losses were by a total of 10 points as well as a 10-point loss to top ranked Florida. A few breaks the other way and the Volunteers could be looking at a big bowl game although a win here likely puts Tennessee in the Outback Bowl on New Year’s Day. Kentucky has accomplished two big things this season and that is winning at Auburn for the first time since 1961 and at Georgia for the first time since 1977. Now it will be trying to beat Tennessee for the first time since 1984 and I am saying that the third time is not a charm. In the games against Auburn and Georgia, the Wildcats had the luxury of going against scoring defenses ranked 78th and 76th while Tennessee is ranked 28th. The Volunteers are allowing only 20.7 ppg and 313.2 ypg which is raked 20th in the nation. The Wildcats are only 87th in total offense and even though the running game is solid, there is no balance and that is what it takes to beat Tennessee. The Volunteers have been led by quarterback Jonathan Crompton who started extremely slow but has picked it up of late. Through the first three games he had five touchdowns and seven interceptions but since then he has tossed 20 touchdowns and only four picks which is definitely one of the best turnarounds in the nation. Tennessee is 11th in the country in sacks allowed while Kentucky is 98th in sacks gained so Crompton will not be seeing much pressure. The offense has scored 31 or more points in five of the last eight games with Tennessee winning all of those contests. Kentucky is an average 54th in total defense and it is 0-4 this season in games that it has allowed 28 or more points so that is obviously the magic number for us here. Tennessee is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games as a road favorite smaller than a touchdown while Kentucky is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven games as a home underdog of a field goal or less. The road team has covered four of the last five meetings and Tennessee is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 in the series. 3* Tennessee Volunteers
It happens only once per year and the time has come for the BIGGEST PLAY OF THE SEASON! This game has been circled for various reasons and Matt expects nothing short of an ABSOLUTE BEATDOWN! If you liked Miami last year with his GOY you are going to love the 2009 version! It is backed by INCREDIBLE 31-4 ATS (88.6%) Team Angles! We bring the MONSTER home Saturday!Comment
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Re: 11-28-09
KELSO
100 Units Georgia Tech (-7½) over Georgia
College Rivalry Game Of The Year 100 Units GEORGIA TECH (10-1) -7 ½ over Georgia (6-5) Prediction: Georgia Tech by 21-24 Starting Time: 8:00 TV: ABC Comments: Georgia Tech is the complete football team and it is no accident the Yellow Jackets have lost but one game this season—a 33-11 decision at Miami in their third game. In this traditional rivalry game, Georgia Tech has every single edge across the board and is dramatically superior at the skill positions. It also is of importance to note Tech has a sophisticated and dominating running game that averages 341.1 yards per game and in the process permits the Jackets to control the clock for 60 minutes. This game usually brings together two teams that are basically equal in talent—but not this time.
Mostly cloudy. Winds blowing from the Northwest at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 60.
15 unit = kentucky
5 unit = n. carlina
4 unit = ucf
3 unit = arkansasComment
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Re: 11-28-09
John Ryan
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on Oklahoma as hey host Oklahoma State in the Bedlam rivalry set to start at 12:30 EST. AiS shows an 86% probability that Oklahoma will win this game by 8 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 24-5 ATS for 83% winners since 1999. Play on a home team off a double digit upset loss as a road favorite of 6 more and with a winning record on the season. AiS shows a 92% probability that Oklahoma will pass for 250 to 300 net passing yards. Note that Oklahoma State is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in road games when their defense allows 250 to 300 net passing yards since 1992. Oklahoma has lost 5 starters on offense including Heisman Trophy winner Sam Bradford. But, there has been ample time for this unit to rebuild given the tremendous depth on their roster. I also think getting humiliated by Texas Tech last week even adds more fuel to the competitive fires to not only defeat Oklahoma State, but humiliate them as well. Although this is the most losses Stoop’s team has had at Oklahoma it serves as tremendous lessons about perseverance and that never give up attitude that the BEST programs always possess within their team character. Oklahoma State is a fine program in its’ own right, but has always been the under dog in this rivalry. In fact, this is just the third time that OSU is playing an unranked OU team. This also occurred in 145 and 1997. Take Oklahoma.
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Washington as they take on Washington State set to start at 6:30 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone an amazing 24-3 ATS for 89% winners since 1992. Play on home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points in conference games that are average offensive teams gaining 4.8 to 5.6 YPP facing a team with a weak defense allowing >=6.2 YPP. This system has gone 19-2 ATS over the past 10 seasons and is 9-0 L5 seasons. 90% probability that Washington will out gain WSU by a minimum of 200 yards and will out gain WSU by 2 or more yards per play. WSU is just 5-23 ATS (-20.3 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 200 or more yards since 1992; Washington is a solid 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) when they outgain their opponents by 2 or more yards/play since 1992. WSU is just 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games after scoring 14 points or less last game over the last 3 seasons; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after gaining 3.75 or less and allowing 6.75+ yards/play last game over the last 3 seasons. Take Washington.
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Florida State as they take on Florida set to start at 3:30 EST. AiS shows a 85% probability that FSU will lose this game by 24 or fewer points. I can still remember last year when I had a 10* Titan winner on Ole Miss, who like FSU, game into Florida as a 24 point dog. Ole Miss won that game and then game that glorious Tebow speech. I am certainly not calling for the upset here, but based on the AiS projections it will be far closer than most observers believe possible. FSU comes in with a severe chip on their shoulders losing 5 straight to this team and enduring a season where their beloved HC was being ridiculed by high level boosters. Nothing would be better than to see Bowden pull off the miracle and prove his naysayers wrong, in the payer’s opinion. FSU is a solid 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse since 1992. FSU has won 4 of their last 5 and the offense is playing well in a balanced attack. Based on the AiS 24 points is just too many for Florida to cover even if they play perfect. Take FSU.
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Stanford as they take on Notre Dame set o start at 8:00 EST. AiS shows an 78% probability that that Stanford will win this game by 10 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 52-19 ATS for 73% winners since 2004. Play against road dogs that are excellent passing teams gaining >=275 PY/game and facing a poor passing defense allowing 230-275 PYPG. AiS shows a 90% probability that Stanford will gain 10 or more net passing yards per attempt and will out gain ND by 100 to 150 total yards. Note that Stanford is a solid 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when they gain 10 or more net passing yards/attempt since 1992; 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) when they are outgain their opponents by 100-150 yards since 1992. Stanford is also 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 2 seasons. Take Stanford.Comment
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Re: 11-28-09
Handicapper: Matt Fargo Sports
Sport: College Football
Game: Tennessee Volunteers @ Kentucky Wildcats - Saturday November 28, 2009 7:00 pm
Pick: 3 units ATS: Tennessee Volunteers -3 (-105)
Kentucky is coming off a win last weekend against Georgia in a game it had no business victorious. The Wildcats were outgained by 227 total yards but were fortunate that the Bulldogs gave it up four times in the second half and that has been the problem for them all season and Kentucky was able to take advantage. The Wildcats improved to 7-4 with that victory but I am not sold on them when playing a good team like Tennessee. Five of their wins have come against teams that are not going to the postseason including one FCS team. A team that is three games over .500 on the season should not have a negative yardage differential but that is the case for Kentucky as it is -13.4 ypg on the year and that may seem insignificant but that is not a good sign for a supposed bowl team. Tennessee has had its ups and downs this season but it will avoid a second straight losing season and missed bowl game. This team could be peaking at the right time led by a surging quarterback and another solid defense. Take away that game against Mississippi, which was actually close late in the third quarter before a 21-0 Rebels run ended it, and the other games have been close as three of other losses were by a total of 10 points as well as a 10-point loss to top ranked Florida. A few breaks the other way and the Volunteers could be looking at a big bowl game although a win here likely puts Tennessee in the Outback Bowl on New Year’s Day. Kentucky has accomplished two big things this season and that is victorious at Auburn for the first time since 1961 and at Georgia for the first time since 1977. Now it will be trying to beat Tennessee for the first time since 1984 and I am saying that the third time is not a charm. In the games against Auburn and Georgia, the Wildcats had the luxury of going against scoring defenses ranked 78th and 76th while Tennessee is ranked 28th. The Volunteers are allowing only 20.7 ppg and 313.2 ypg which is raked 20th in the nation. The Wildcats are only 87th in total offense and even though the running game is solid, there is no balance and that is what it takes to beat Tennessee. The Volunteers have been led by quarterback Jonathan Crompton who started extremely slow but has picked it up of late. Through the first three games he had five touchdowns and seven interceptions but since then he has tossed 20 touchdowns and only four picks which is definitely one of the best turnarounds in the nation. Tennessee is 11th in the country in sacks allowed while Kentucky is 98th in sacks gained so Crompton will not be seeing much pressure. The offense has scored 31 or more points in five of the last eight games with Tennessee victorious all of those contests. Kentucky is an average 54th in total defense and it is 0-4 this season in games that it has allowed 28 or more points so that is obviously the magic number for us here. Tennessee is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games as a road favorite smaller than a touchdown while Kentucky is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven games as a home underdog of a field goal or less. The road team has covered four of the last five meetings and Tennessee is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 in the series. 3*Tennessee Volunteers.Comment
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