11-30-09

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section (regular or premium)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-30-09

R.A.W. FOOTBALL

2* = "over" N.Orleans/N.England

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-30-09

Randall the Handle

Patriots @ Saints
Very quietly, the Patriots have allowed the second least amount of points in the NFL. As luck would have it, the Saints have scored a league-leading 369 points. Something has to give and that being the case, the better defence combined with a dangerous offence, while getting points is the prudent move here.TAKING: New England +3

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-30-09

Docs

4 Unit Play. #128 Take New Orleans -3 over New England (Monday 8:30 pm ESPN) The Patriots are getting too much respect and this writer is certainly not buying into them just yet. They face an undefeated Saints squad in the Big Easy, and are just a field goal dog? That is not right, since New Orleans is 8-0 straight-up and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games as a home favorite. DC Williams has turned around the Saints defense 180 degrees and this unit can now hold their own. 1st and Ten. Throw in QB Brees and a high powered offense and you will hear from this team for quite some time. This line is way too low and we will collect big in the process as well. New Orleans 37, New England 30.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-30-09

Steven Budin-CEO
MONDAY'S PICK
Baltimore Crew

50 DIME RELEASE

New Orleans Saints

This line can be found between 1 or 2.5 depending on where you shop as I release this selection at 9:00 P.M. Eastern on Sunday evening. If you have either price - or even if you get stuck with 3 1/2 - I want you to buy down the 1/2 point for insurance no matter the case.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-30-09

EXPERT: Nick Parsons TITLE: ***CODE RED*** 2009 BLOWOUT GAME OF YEAR! REASON FOR PICK: These two teams have been dissected to death; their strengths and weaknesses poured over by the Nations "top minds"; for a number of different reasons I believe the Saints will remain unbeaten as they take care of the Patriots in front of the New Orleans faithful:

"They are good at everything," Patriots head coach Bill Belichick said. "They don't make many mistakes. They cause a lot of problems. They're very explosive. They can put up a lot of points in a hurry and they have. It's hard to give them any more compliments than that."

The Patriots offensive line is banged up.

New England has had its hands full with the Saints over the last few years, no matter the location; 1-6 ATS its last seven vs. New Orleans.

On the other side of the field: The Saints average 36.9 ppg; 12 different players have scored TD's.

Running backs Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell have rushed for more than 500 yards apiece, while Bush has scored five TDs and is averaging 5.0 yards per carry as a change-of-pace option.

The Saints always play tough at home; 7-3 ATS their last 10 at the Superdome.

Bottom line: If you give Brady the time to throw, he'll beat you; look for the Saints to apply immense pressure and making getting into the backfield a top priority.

Let's be honest, these teams are evenly matched in every category, but there are two overriding factors in this game that tip the scale for me:

I feel that Drew Brees and company are simply the hungrier man/team, and also believe that home field advantage and the raucous New Orleans fans can't be overlooked in this case.

New Orleans already had one statement game this season vs the the Giants (48-27/10.18.09) and absolutely crushed them and they will be up to the task one more time as Brees continues his assault on the leagues offensive stats and his mission to get the respect he feels he deserves (and rightly so); look for the SAINTS to move to 8-3 ATS this year as a favorite and for the Patriots to fall to 1-3 ATS their last four on the road!

*10*

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-30-09

Al DeMarco Monday's Play 30 Dime - New Orleans

Two weeks ago in my weekly TV show and various radio interviews, I was all over New England at Indianapolis, telling everyone to grab the points with the Patriots and even suggesting a smaller moneyline wager because I believed they were going to win the game outright. A cover they got, but you know how the final score went thanks to Bill Belichick's fourth-down gamble. Lost among the controversy over that call was the fact the Pats could not stop Indy's offense after opening up a big double-digit lead in the first half. Peyton Manning kept firing, marching the Colts up and down the field, putting them in the position to win the game if they got the ball back one more time, and Belichick's gamble presented them with that golden opportunity.

Both the Colts and Saints were undefeated and playing at home when the Patriots came calling. The difference between the two clubs? Indianapolis can't run the ball a lick; New Orleans entered the weekend with the league's No. 5 rushing attack as Pierre Thomas, Mike Bell and Reggie Bush have spearheaded a unit that's averaged 154.3 yards per game (4.8 ypc). That triumvirate tackles a New England defense that allows opposing ball carriers to average 4.4 yards per carry. Last week at home the Jets' Thomas Jones ran for 103 yards on 21 carries despite his team falling behind by 3 TDs early so this is not a stop unit that can be counted on.

The Patriots have more problems defensively that just stopping the run; their pass rush has generated just 18 sacks on the season. You don't beat Drew Brees, who has one of the quickest - if not the quickest - release in pro football, unless you pressure him continuously. Just ask Philadelphia's blitzers. Or those of the Giants. And with a strong ground game to rely on for the first time in his tenure in New Orleans, it's no wonder Brees is helming an offense averaging 36.9 points and 420.5 yards per game.

Where the Saints have been particularly dangerous this year is in the second half of games where they've outscored their foes 188-78. That margin swells to 105-24 in the fourth quarter. Both stats are troublesome for a New England defense that couldn't withstand the second-half comebacks of the Colts and Broncos, two previous undefeated teams they lost to on the road this season. And the Patriots often seem to have a patchwork defense held together by bailing wire and aging veterans like Junior Seau.

With the focus on Brees and the Saints' prolific scoring attack, their defense often gets overlooked, but on that side of the ball they entered the weekend leading the league with 29 takeaways, including 20 interceptions. Darren Sharper has rejuvenated the secondary and that takeaway figure is stunning considering the team had just 22 for all of last season.

Put aside the Belichick mystique against undefeated teams for a moment; he's 0-3 SU in those match-ups this season, losing to the Jets, Broncos and Colts, all on the road. I'm telling you to put that aside, but I know the public isn't and they're also buying into the "don't bet against the Patriots as an underdog" shtick, too. That's why the price of this game has dropped steadily all week long. But public perception is often wrong, especially on Monday nights, and tonight will be no exception as the Saints expose New England's defensive flaws while proving to the NFL - and the viewing public - they are for real, breaking open a tight game after intermission before posting a solid 35-24 win.


Strategy Note:

The price of this game ranges from 1 to 3 depending on where you play it. That's a huge margin, but that's why you've got to shop around before placing your wager. Here's the deal: I would buy down the 1/2 point if you've got a line of 1 1/2, 2, 2 1/2, 3 or even 3 1/2. Now there is absolutely no reason you should be stuck with the Saints at 3 or 3 1/2, but who knows if your local guy is any good? In Vegas right now, as of late Sunday night, New Orleans is -1 at the Hilton and Mirage. Yet I can walk down the strip and find them at -2 1/2 as well. And offshore, I see one place - and you know the place that always inflates the price on favorites - that they're shockingly -3. So, again, buy down the 1/2 point between 1 1/2 and 3 1/2 points. Always better to be safe than sorry.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-30-09

Sean Michaels

25 Dime

New Orleans Saints

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-30-09

anthony redd
20 dime
saints

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-30-09

Dave Malinsky

Top of the Ticket – Side

Philadelphia 76ers (+11) over DALLAS MAVERICKS
4* #503 PHILADELPHIA over DALLAS

Usually when we see an NBA line this high we are dealing with a dominating favorite that has the tools to build a margin, or an underdog that shows issues when having to step way up in class. That is not the case here at all, and the oddsmakers have set this one far beyond the game flow that we project. Dallas brings severe limitations in terms of this role. As long as Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Kidd, Shawn Marion and Jason Terry are in uniform there is the veteran savvy to go out and win games, but without Josh Howard, Erick Damiper, and Quintin Ross the depth to blow anyone out is not there. Tonight they will not have the mind-set either, with this being the fifth game in seven days, including a court change each time, and they head back on the road immediately afterwards. Rick Carlisle has gone 4-7 as a double figure home favorite since taking over in Dallas, and this is a setting in which he would be more than happy to merely grind out a win and move on. The fact that he gave his team yesterday off, instead of practicing for this matchup, was an admission on his part of how grueling this travel stretch is (they will play eight games in 12 days, all with court changes). For the 76ers there is not culture shock in terms of stepping up in class ? having played at Cleveland, Boston and San Antonio in the last 10 days this actually represents a step down. While they lack the end-game polish of the league?s elite, which leaves outright wins out of their grasp, note that they went 3-0 ATS against that tough trio, losing the games by a combined 17 points. They are also no strangers to playing the second night of back-to-back games on the road, going 3-0 ATS as an underdog in those settings, and they will get a boost off the bench tonight with the return of Elton Brand (he could have played last night, but they do not think he is ready for back-to-back outings yet, so he will get floor action in this one since they have Tuesday off). Philadelphia led at both Cleveland and Boston in the fourth quarter of those recent close defeats, and the 76ers never lost contact at San Antonio tonight. They are in the hunt all the way here against an opponent that lacks the athleticism, depth and energy to throw a knockout punch.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-30-09

R A S
#514 San Jose State +5.0 for 1.50 UNITS

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-30-09

NATIONAL SPORTS SERVICE

4* New Orleans -1.5 over New England (NFL)

3* Memphis/Utah OVER 207.5 (NBA)

3* Philadelphia/Dallas OVER 200 (NBA)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-30-09

RANDALL THE HANDLE
GOLDEN STATE –2½ over Indiana
The Pacers have one win in its last six games and that includes a home-loss to the Knicks. Its last two wins have come against the Clip Joint and the 0-17 Nets. The Pacers last three losses have been by 21, 12 and 16 points respectively, to the Mav’s, Raps and Bobcats. Danny Granger, the real threat on that team is playing with a bum knee and when he’s limited so are the Pacers, big time. Meanwhile, the Warriors last six opponents have been Cleveland, Boston, Portland, Dallas, San Antonio and the Lakers, arguable the top six teams in the Association. That is an incredibly tough stretch of games, yet the Warriors still won two of the six and lost one other by six points. The Warriors will be taking a gigantic step down in class here and after playing that group of six, this one should appear in slow motion for them. Play: Golden State –2½ (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-30-09

frank patron
20000 unit nfl lock
over 56.5 points new england @ new orleans

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-30-09

John Ryan sports
Handicapper: John Ryan Sports
Sport: NBA Basketball
Game: Chicago Bulls @ Milwaukee Bucks - Monday November 30, 2009 8:05 pm
Pick: 3 units ATS: Chicago Bulls +2 (-110)

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Bulls as they take on Milwaukee set to start at 8:00 EST. AiS shows a 68% probability that Chicago will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 45-19 ATS for 70% victories since 2004.
Play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 after 4 or more consecutive losses and is a tired team playing 8 or more games in 14 days. Here is a 2nd system that has gone 65-27 ATS for 71% victories since 1996. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after having lost 4 of their last 5 games and is a well rested team playing 6 or less games in 14 days. Milwaukee not just tired but coming off a tough loss to Orlando by 2 points 100-98. Milwaukee is just 14-29 ATS (-17.9 Units) off a close home loss by 3 points or less since 1996. Take the Bulls.