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Re: 11-30-09
The Boooj 11/30
25 units New England +1.5
The Boooj 11/30
25 units New England +1.5
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Re: 11-30-09
WUNDERDOG
NHL Pick 11/30
Game: Colorado at Tampa Bay (7:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: Tampa Bay -140 (moneyline)
The Colorado Avalanche went the final 16 games of last season without winning a game in regulation. What a surprise to see them off to a start that saw them losing just once in regulation over their first 13 games. There is an old saying that "water seeks its level,” and the Avalanche appear to be heading back in that direction. Their last 14 games show just three wins in regulation, and just one of those on the road. It might be tough to grab a win on the road vs. a Lightning team that has dropped just one all season in Tampa. Teams heading in opposite directions says the Lightning get this one.Comment
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Re: 11-30-09
DOC SPORTS NBA
3-Unit Play #501 Take Chicago/Milwaukee UNDER 195 (8 p.m. EST, Monday)
Milwaukee has gone over in nine of their last 10 but we think that this team will be a strong under pick tonight and in the near future and it seems like this number was definitely overadjusted. These teams already played once this season and both teams shot under 40% from the field and the total reached only 164. And this wasn’t just a case of one fluky low scoring quarter, these teams scored 38 in the first, 34 in the second, 44 in the third, and 48 in the fourth. Add their highest scoring quarter in all through the box score and they would not even reach this number for tonight. Bottom line is that these are two pretty good defensive clubs that haven’t played like it lately but we think that defense will be the tone here tonight as it was in the first game of the series.
3-Unit Play #502 Take Milwaukee -2 ½ Over Chicago (8 p.m. EST, Monday)
The Bucks stock is low now since they have lost four straight but they are coming off a tough road trip and had to face Orlando in their first game back home. In the first meeting Milwaukee controlled most of the game and then lost it in the end, but they even led by 18 once and that was in Chicago where the Bulls play a lot better. They are only 2-7 on the road while the Bucks are 6-2 at home and the Bulls have just looked really bad on the road lately and we are expecting that to continue tonight.Comment
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Re: 11-30-09
Handicapper: John Ryan Sports
Sport: NBA Basketball
Game: Chicago Bulls @ Milwaukee Bucks - Monday November 30, 2009 8:05 pm
Pick: 3 units ATS: Chicago Bulls +2 (-110)
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Bulls as they take on Milwaukee set to start at 8:00 EST. AiS shows a 68% probability that Chicago will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 45-19 ATS for 70% victories since 2004.
Play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 after 4 or more consecutive losses and is a tired team playing 8 or more games in 14 days. Here is a 2nd system that has gone 65-27 ATS for 71% victories since 1996. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after having lost 4 of their last 5 games and is a well rested team playing 6 or less games in 14 days. Milwaukee not just tired but coming off a tough loss to Orlando by 2 points 100-98. Milwaukee is just 14-29 ATS (-17.9 Units) off a close home loss by 3 points or less since 1996. Take the Bulls.Comment
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Re: 11-30-09
ANDRE GOMES
UTAH Jazz -10
The Memphis Grizzlies had yesterday an incredible letdown in the fourth quarter against the Clippers by being outscored 7-33 in just 12 minutes of basketball. In my opinion, that ridiculous run happened due to fatigue of their best players. Note that the Grizzlies were outscored by 40-54 in the paint and that was surprising, because they lead the league in that department averaging 51.1 points in the paint per game. They are also one of the best teams in the league in fast break points and they were outplayed as well by the Clippers in that department by 12-22. Finally they were clearly outrebounded by 30-47 with 17-6 edge for the Clippers in offensive boards. These three factors are a good measure of the effort of the teams and we can make the conclusion that the Grizzlies were dead tired at the end of the game.
They were coming from a huge win in Portland in a late night game (10:00PM) and yesterday's contest in LA was an early game (03:30 PM), so I wasn't completely surprised of such letdown. Let’s not forget that the Grizzlies have a short roster, in which they absolutely depend on just 4 players: Mayo, Gay, Randolph and Gasol! These 4 players are receiving at least 72% each of the team's total minutes and when they're tired, the Grizzlies simply can’t be competitive! I remember that yesterday Gasol and Mayo played 42 minutes, while Randolph and Gay played 40 minutes! The last time the Grizzlies had a back to back game in a tough spot, they were spanked by 79-104 in Houston!
The worst scenario for them is to play today the second game of a back to back series, especially against a team like the Jazz! We all know that the Jazz have a strong home court and they are in a pretty favorable spot, as they are in the middle of a span full of home games. In their last game, they spanked their divisional rivals Portland by 108-92 and after this contest, their next game is only next Friday, so we are dealing with a team who will be focused tonight. Last season, after a Jazz home win by double digits points and with a least one day to rest, they went 6-1 ATS in their next game at home. I expect a rested Jazz to run out of the building the tired Grizzlies for a comfortable double digits win and that’s why I’m taking the Jazz in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 506 Utah Jazz (-10)
NBA - 501 Chicago Bulls @ 502 Milwaukee Bucks
I believe that this game will be a low scoring affair and according to my numbers we have a nice 5-points edge and this play was close to be a best bet. Note that we are not dealing with two confident teams right now, as both teams have lost their last 4 games and so, they will look to bounce back tonight.
The Bulls were a top defensive team in the first 2 weeks of the competition, but they were literally spanked in every loss coming for this game. In fact, they allowed 108, 112, 122 and 105 points in those games, however I feel that this won’t happen tonight because the Bucks don’t have the same power as the Lakers, Nuggets, Blazers and the Jazz – the Bulls' last 4 opponents. During the 4-game losing streak, the Bulls were outmuscled and outplayed in the front. Joakim Noah couldn’t handle on his own the powerful opponent’s frontcourt, as the Bulls allowed 60, 52, 50 and 62 points in the paint in those contests! For instance, Pau Gasol shot 9-15 FG, LaMarcus Aldridge 10-16 FG and Boozer 12-14 FG against them. The good news for the Bulls is that the Bucks don’t have a powerful frontcourt and so they won’t surely be massacred in the front. Late news tells us that Andrew Bogut is probable for this contest, but he will certainly be rusty coming from an injury and he isn't also the typical dominant center that the Bulls should be afraid off. Bottom line, I expect the Bulls to have a better defensive performance tonight because the Bucks don’t have the same weapons as the Bulls latest opponents.
Meanwhile, the Bulls offense is a stagnant unit. For only once, they topped the century mark in points this season and they are shooting only 43.3% from the field – good for the 4th worst mark in the league! The Bucks defense is a pretty underrated unit, as they are the 8th most efficient defense in the league. Like the Bulls, the Bucks faced some top offensive teams lately and it isn’t a surprise that in their 4 losses, they allowed more than 100 points in each contest, so in order to get back to the wins, head coach Scott Skilles knows what to do: defense!
These two teams have already faced each other this season and the Bulls won by 83-81. In that game. both teams didn’t reach the 40% mark from the field and even though I don’t expect such thing to happen tonight, we are dealing with a 195.5 points line, when my fair line is 190 points. Take the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501/502 Under 195,5 @1.91
NBA - 503 Philadelphia 76ers @ 504 Dallas Mavericks
This is a situational play that I had in my mind after watching the Sixers last night against the Spurs. The Sixers defense is absolutely dismal and lacks all imaginable fundamentals to be a good defensive team. They are in a 5-game losing streak and during that span, they allowed their opponents to shot 51.9, 48.0, 47.3, 48.7, 51.4 and 48.7% from the field and the only reason why in 2 of those losses they didn’t allow 100-points was due to the slow pace of the respective games. Without Louis Williams and Elton Brand, head coach Eddie Jordan decided to play the team's last game with Thaddeus Young at the PF position and Willie Green at the SG spot, so the Sixers were a fast and small team on court. For tonight I expect the same to happen for the Sixers, as they don’t have any other reliable options.
The problem for them is that the Mavericks are shooting lights out nowadays and they won’t have any problems in exploring the Sixers poor defense. The Mavericks are coming from a loss in Cleveland against the Cavaliers and so, they will be fired up for tonight. Last season after losing one game and playing the next contest at home, the Over cashed in 12 of 16 opportunities. These two teams like to run and score in transitions, as the Sixers are second in the league in Fast Break points averaging 19.2 ppg, while the Mavs are the 6th best team averaging 15.1 points per game. Last night the Sixers were able to shot only 39.3% from the field against the Spurs and according to my numbers, that game was a extremely slow paced game (good job for the Spurs in turning the game into a halfcourt contest) and the Sixers can’t perform in such conditions. However, take a look at their 25 fast break points in that game and this is a clear sign of what they will want to do tonight. I expect the Mavericks to easily reach the century mark in points, while the Sixers will hang around them. Take the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503/504 Over 199 @1.91Comment
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Re: 11-30-09
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -1.5
These two teams have been dissected to death; their strengths and weaknesses poured over by the Nations "top minds"; for a number of different reasons I believe the Saints will remain unbeaten as they take care of the Patriots in front of the New Orleans faithful:
"They are good at everything," Patriots head coach Bill Belichick said. "They don't make many mistakes. They cause a lot of problems. They're very explosive. They can put up a lot of points in a hurry and they have. It's hard to give them any more compliments than that."
The Patriots offensive line is banged up.
New England has had its hands full with the Saints over the last few years, no matter the location; 1-6 ATS its last seven vs. New Orleans.
On the other side of the field: The Saints average 36.9 ppg; 12 different players have scored TD's.
Running backs Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell have rushed for more than 500 yards apiece, while Bush has scored five TDs and is averaging 5.0 yards per carry as a change-of-pace option.
The Saints always play tough at home; 7-3 ATS their last 10 at the Superdome.
Bottom line: If you give Brady the time to throw, he'll beat you; look for the Saints to apply immense pressure and making getting into the backfield a top priority.
Let's be honest, these teams are evenly matched in every category, but there are two overriding factors in this game that tip the scale for me:
I feel that Drew Brees and company are simply the hungrier man/team, and also believe that home field advantage and the raucous New Orleans fans can't be overlooked in this case.
New Orleans already had one statement game this season vs the the Giants (48-27/10.18.09) and absolutely crushed them and they will be up to the task one more time as Brees continues his assault on the leagues offensive stats and his mission to get the respect he feels he deserves (and rightly so); look for the SAINTS to move to 8-3 ATS this year as a favorite and for the Patriots to fall to 1-3 ATS their last four on the road!
*10* SAINTS.Comment
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Re: 11-30-09
Marc Lawrence
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS +2.5
The big game of the week in the NFL kicks off under the Monday night lights when undefeated New Orleans host New England in what many perceive to be a possible Super Bowl preview. It’s been our contention all month long that the Saints have been a balloon prick away from bursting. Last week Tampa wasn’t able to muster enough of a threat to expose New Orleans but a look back at the Saints’ previous four contests found them sweating bullets. In those games New Orleans trailed Miami, 24-20, at the half. They then held off Atlanta in an eight-point squeaker. In addition, they were down 11 at the half against Carolina before rallying and then withstood a pass into the end zone on the final play of the game to hold off St. Louis. Not a desired worksheet for a team looking to remain perfect while holding off Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. In case you hadn’t heard, Belichick is 8-1 ATS in his head coaching career as a dog against undefeated opponents, including 6-0 ATS away. In addition, Brady is 25-10-1 ATS in games in which has is not favored, including 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS away versus an .818 or greater opponent. In addition, the Patriots are 25-2 SU in its last 27 games against NFC opposition, including 12-0 SU and 11-0-1 ATS versus .400 or greater opposition. It all adds up to the end of New Orleans magical run. Take the points with the Pats. We recommend a 3-unit play on New England.Comment
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Re: 11-30-09
Ron Raymond
76ers/Mavericks UNDER 200
When DALLAS played as a home team - During Last 5 Years - With 3 Over or Less - Lost Last Game by 16 Points or Less - With SU Record of 2 Win 1 Lost in L3G; the UNDER is 9-3-0 for the Mavericks in this cycle the last 5 seasons. Take the Under.Comment
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Re: 11-30-09
Tony George
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -1.5
All 3 losses of the Pats have been on the road. That is HUGE. The Colts beat them without a running game, and the running game is HUGE for the Saints in this game. All the talk about Brees and Brady is for the birds, it is defense and running the ball that will win it. Yes both QB will throw the hell out of it, but at days end in the red zone running the ball and screen passes favor the Saints who are world beaters at home.
Play 1 Unit on New Orleans.Comment
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Re: 11-30-09
Rob Homyak
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -1.5
Play ON NEW ORLEANS against the spread in All games in non-conference games
The record is 7 Wins and 0 Losses for the last two seasons (+7.00 units)
Play ON NEW ORLEANS against the spread in All games as a favorite
The record is 13 Wins and 4 Losses for the last two seasons (+8.60 units)
The New Orleans Saints are 5-0 at home this season, and against 3-0 AFC opponents.
At home the Saints are averaging 36.4 scoring, and holding teams to 22.2 points scored on defense.
The New England Patriots are 1-3 while on the road this season.
Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 12.
Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
Patriots are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games in Week 12.
Patriots are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
3 Units on New Orleans.Comment
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Re: 11-30-09
Bob Balfe
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -1.5
One paper the Patriots have more talent, especially on defense. There is one single factor that leads me to pick the Saints and that is the offensive and defensive line injuries for New England. This offensive line in particular is so banged up that Brady will not have his usual time to get rid of the ball. Timing is everything in the NFL and if you do not have time or are not confident in the guys in front of you then it will hurt your overall game. The Saints have their own defensive injuries, but slowly are starting to get healthier. The fact the Saints are still undefeated and overcame so many obstacle proves they have great depth on defense. New Orleans puts pressure on the offense which is why they have so many interceptions this season. This Superdome will be as loud as it gets tonight Forget about all the superstars on both sides of the ball. The key factor in tonight‘s game will be the men in the trenches. The Saints have a huge advantage in that department. Take the Saints.Comment
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Re: 11-30-09
GoodFella
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -1.5
New Orleans hosts the Patriots Monday Night in the Superdome, and the Superdome was already the LOUDEST play to playa in for opponents, but it will be at a ALL-TIME high tonight, on the noise level. The place will be rocking and beyone loud, a definite edge for the hometown Saints. N.O has more weapons including two solid running backs (Thomas and Bell) plus Reggie Bush to exploit the outside. N.O also has better defense in my opinion, and New England is NOT great at stopping the run. New England has a average run game at best, and the Saints should shut down any run game & be able to key in on the New England passing game, which is one of the best in the game. I really like the edge in running the ball here,as New Orleans ranks 5th in the leage in running the rock and averages 155 ypg and 4.8 YPC. New Orleans success in the run game, will set up play action and I look for Shockey to have a big game for the Saints tonight as well. What most people are not aware of is how good the Saints "D" has been this season. New Orleans leads the NFL in takeaways, with 29! I really like the Saints at home in this spot and definitely expect them to come away with the HOME WIN and stay undefeated tonight. Take the Saints.Comment
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Re: 11-30-09
Lenny Del Genio
CHICAGO BULLS +3
Something has got to give here as both teams come in riding four-game losing streaks. For the Bulls, this is the finale of what is already to be a guaranteed losing six-game road swing and they have left their backers broke with four-straight non-covers. However, all four losses came against Western Conference powers, which is why the results were so lopsided. There are still some positive things going on with this team, including F Noah, who ranks near the top of the league in rebounding. Milwaukee got off to a hot start, but an injury to Andrew Bogut and opponents ability to defend rookie Jennings have made that a thing of the past. Chicago beat the Bucks early in the season back when Milwaukee was playing much better. The Bucks are just 3-11 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss by three or less. Chicago has to reverse a trend that has seen them go 0-9 ATS this year if they were an underdog in their previous game. Chicago is our 20* Central Division Game of the Month.Comment
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