12-3-09

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section (regular or premium)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-3-09

Dave Malinsky

4* #303 OREGON STATE over OREGON

We can understand why Oregon has had such sex appeal in the marketplace, because of the flashy nature of that spread offense. But to be -10 over a team that has been every bit as good this season, in a high-pressure setting with the Rose Bowl on the line? That does not fit. But it exists because a team from a quiet media outpost like Corvallis just does not bring the same sex appeal, regardless of how well they play.A lot of the numbers here can be updated from that 6* call that we made on Mike Riley and his Beavers three games back at California, when they rolled 31-14 despite being 7-point underdogs. It might look like an extreme result based on the line, but it was nothing new at all. The last four seasons State has gone 19-4 SU and 17-6 ATS over the last six weeks of the season, and over those four campaigns that have gone 8-2 ATS as Pac 10 road underdogs, with six SU wins. No matter how much success they have they continue to get under-valued by the betting markets. Yet there should be some sex appeal here, with the Rodgers brothers among the most explosive sibling combinations to ever play together, with 1573 rushing yards and 19 TD’s at 5.4, 144 receptions for 1,301 yards and nine TD’s, and 785 return yards.The presence of those two has made the SR season for Sean Canfield at QB a special one. When you have two special talents on the field at the same time it means an ability to stretch defenses and run plays that do not require a lot of risk, and Canfield has directed what has been an almost flawless offense. His 70.3 percent completion rate is within reach of the Pac 10 record of 70.7, and in 782 offensive snaps this offense has only turned the ball over nine times. That puts them prime in our “Tough Out” category – when you have big-time playmakers, and do not make mistakes to beat yourself, you are rarely out of any game, especially with the confidence they bring from all of those past road successes (including that 38-31 win two years ago in the last trip to this field).Oregon is over-rated here because while what the Ducks do well they do every well, they are also nothing special in far too many areas. They are in an intense fight here to merely win the game outright, and do not bring the advantages of this classy opponent to mount any kind of margin.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-3-09

Nick Parsons

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills Dec 3 2009 8:20PM

For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this matchup is on the "under":

Mark Sanchez was 13 of 17 for 154 yards and just one INT Sunday, enabling the defense to carry the Jets to a 17-6 victory over Carolina, snapping a three-game losing streak. The Panthers were held to 179 total yards - an effort resembling New York's stingy play during its 3-0 start and I look for it to build off that performance.

Despite their recent struggles, and because of last week's stalwart defensive effort, the Jets remain one game out in a crowded AFC wild-card race and two back in the division chase.

On the other side of the field: Buffalo had lost five games this season in which they led or were tied in the final quarter. But against the Dolphins, the Bills snapped a 14-14 tie by erupting for 17 points in a span of 2:15 with less than four minutes to play; I believe they'll suffer a "letdown" offensively against an extremely alert Jet secondary in Toronto though.

The Bills had four INT's against Miami last time out, boosting their takeaway total to 25 - tied for third-most in the NFL.

They picked off the Jets six times in a 16-13 overtime road victory Oct. 18, with New York rookie Mark Sanchez all but throwing the game away with five INT's.

As it proved against Miami last Sunday, Buffalo's defense can take a game over in the fourth quarter if it has been rested. Putting together some well-balanced, clock-eating drives early by the offense will be critical as well if the Bills want a chance at winning this game

Keep in mind the total has gone under the posted number in five of Buffalo's last seven overall.

Bottom line: When the ball is in his hands, look for Sanchez to manage both the game and his wonky knee without taking too many chances; despite their record, New York boasts the league's No. 2 overall defense and had a dominating performance last weekend.

When you take into account all of the above factors, I have to recommend a play on the UNDER!

*10* NYJ/BUF UNDER 37

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-3-09

Teddy Covers

Arkansas St. at Western Kentucky Dec 3 2009 7:00PM

PICK: Western Kentucky
TITLE: Big Ticket: Thursday Night Game of the Year

We cashed a ticket with Western Kentucky last Saturday as they travelled to Florida Atlantic as double digit underdogs. The Hilltoppers led in the second half before falling short of the outright victory, still covering with ease in a six point defeat.

At 0-11, losing is nothing new for Western Kentucky – let’s not forget that they ended last year on an eight game slide. Head coach David Elson was fired following their loss to Troy four weeks ago, but he’s stayed through the end of the season. Since Elson’s dismissal, we’ve seen nothing but effort and energy from this downtrodden squad. They hung tough as 22 point underdogs at Louisiana-Monroe, losing by only three points, prior to last week’s game against FAU.

Do not expect the Hilltoppers to go quietly here either. This may be a winless team, but they don’t intend to stay that way. Here are some relevant quotes from Elson earlier this week:

“When times get tough, there’s only one thing you can do and that’s work - keep working. And when you really think about it, what that does is keep your mind from wandering places and let it be affected by things it doesn’t need to be affected by…..I’ve been very proud of how these guys have handled this. It’s really, really frustrating that we haven’t been able to win one of these two, but you’ve got to look at the big picture. The effort’s there, I still believe it’s going to come and I still believe it’s going to come. And I really hope it does Thursday night, so those (seniors) can sing that fight song one last time.”

Elson also talked about the pressure that Western Kentucky’s 13 seniors were likely to feel as they strive for that elusive victory. “I can see that being a potential issue come Thursday night - they want to win so bad. We’ll guard against (pressure) and say, ‘Relax and play.’ We’ve made some strides in some areas. Stay the course, keep improving at the things we’ve tried to improve at. It hasn’t worked on the scoreboard, and that’s the most frustrating thing. But we know it’s starting to click for certain guys.”

While Western Kentucky can be expected to play with pride and energy for their departing coach, things aren’t quite so rosy for Arkansas State. The Red Wolves came into the season expecting to compete for a Sun Belt title. Instead, they’ve slumped to a 3-8 record; just 2-5 in Sun Belt play. Steve Roberts squad is winless on the road this year; losers of 18 of their last 20 on the highway. They did their best to blow a 27-0 halftime lead against lowly North Texas last week, barely hanging on for a six point win as 12 point favorites.

Arkansas State senior quarterback Corey Leonard has been benched for injuries and ineffectiveness, leaving frosh Ryan Aplin to lead the offense. Aplin threw two interceptions deep in North Texas territory last week, with a 2-6 touchdown to interception ratio for the season. Senior running back Reggie Arnold has been banged up all year as well. The Red Wolves have been besieged by injuries on the offensive line; forced to use three different starting centers in recent weeks. Defensively, we’ve seen the Red Wolves struggle in every recent road game, allowing 35+ in each of their last two Sun Belt road games.

After snapping their own four game skid with a home win on senior day last week, it’s simply not realistic to expect Arkansas State to bring the same level of energy and enthusiasm for their season finale as their opponent will bring. The Red Wolves certainly have a lousy track record in season ending games under Roberts, winning only once in their last six tries. This team has absolutely no business as a road favorite in this price range.

Big Ticket: 7* (#306) Take Western Kentucky.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-3-09

National Sports Service Picks 12/3

5* Oregon -10 over Oregon St. (NCAAF)

4* N.Y. Jets/Buffalo OVER 37 (NFL)

3* Arkansas St. -5.5 over W. Kentucky (NCAAF)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-3-09

Mark Lawrence CFB: Oregon St +10
CBB: Princeton +14

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-3-09

charlie
ncaaf & nfl. nfl. bills+3, ncaaf. arkansas st-6 ncaaf. oregon st @ oregon over 62'. (500* Triple Play)
ncaaf. oregon-9' (30*)
nfl. jets @ bills under 37 (20*)
cbb. texas-20 (20*)
nba. maimi+9 (10*)
nba. boston+2 (10*) free play

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-3-09

RAS
Idaho (+1) 1.00 UNIT

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-3-09

Malinksy

4* #720 TEXAS over SOUTHERN CAL

There is almost no way for this one to turn out other than ugly. Yet we are seeing fair value being offered for this rout because the marketplace has not had a chance to adjust for just how depleted Southern Cal is right now. And every one of those Trojan weaknesses make this among the worst matchups that they could possibly face.Kevin O’Neill is just trying to keep the dam from bursting in the early part of the season. He only has six players in his rotation until Leonard Washington and Michael Gerrity, and none of them are C’s or PG’s. So the problem begins. If you lack depth, playing Texas in Austin is a monstrous headache, with Rick Barnes having nine players going at least 11 minutes per game, and no one having to average more than 28. They will play tenaciously for every minute of the game, especially on the boards and on defense, and that is where the particular Southern Cal problems get exposed. They have little chance to competing on the boards vs. a team winning that battle by +10 per game, and without PG play how do the Trojans find open looks against a defense allowing 32.8 percent from the field, and 21.7 from beyond the arc?We saw the lack of cohesion from the Southern Cal offense in Sunday’s home loss to Nebraska, when they could score just 48 points, and had more than twice as many turnovers (17) as assists (8). We also saw that the lack of depth forces the defense into conservative schemes to stay fresh, only forcing seven turnovers in that same game. And that was at home. Now the mist-matched assortment takes to the road for the first time, and O’Neill is forced to treat it as an 80-minute cycle instead of just one game – there is also a tough encounter at Georgia Tech on Saturday night. So there will be no scrambling hard to play from behind here; if it gets away he may just let it go, and try to save some energy for Saturday. Meanwhile for Texas this is the first home game since November 18th, and all the Longhorns have on deck is Long Beach State on this court Monday night. There is nothing in the way of 40 minutes of hard basketball, which is what Barnes demands each time out, and the Trojans can not stand up to that

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-3-09

KB
5* Denver Nuggets -8.5 **POD**
5* Texas -20
4* Oregon State +10 -120 (NCAAF)

Pitbulls
20 units Tennessee State Pk
20 units Idaho Pk
15 units Citadel Pk
10 units NY Jets -3

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-3-09

Mike Lineback

Premium Selections

[701-702] 4* Boston Celtics/San Antonio Spurs OVER 187.5 -110 | 8:00p ET

[703] 4* Houston Rockets -1.5 -110 | 10:30p ET

[705-706] 4* Miami Heat/Denver Nuggers UNDER 211 -110 | 10:30p ET

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-3-09

Spartan Triple: BUF

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-3-09

Jim Feist's Pro Football 'Total' Oddsmaker Error - Thursday!

The Jets (5-6 SU/ATS) are riding a 2-6 SU/ATS run under rookie QB Mark Sanchez (10 TDs, 17 INTs) and new coach Rex Ryan. Because Sanchez was struggling so much, the Jets introduced a color-coded play-calling system for their rookie quarterback last week. The move was at the behest of coach Rex Ryan, who wanted to simplify things for Sanchez. The loss of NT Kris Jenkins (knee) for the year is a huge blow for the defense and it is taking a toll: They allowed 139 yards rushing in a 24-22 home loss to Jacksonville. The Jets will be short on cornerbacks Thursday with Dwight Lowery (ankle) and Donald Strickland (concussion) unable to practice this week. They are the team's third- and fourth- best corners. The Bills (4-7 SU/5-6 ATS) are showing some life under new coach Perry Fewell and QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (4 TDs, 6 picks). Fewell felt Fitzpatrick gave the team a better chance to win, and the kid threw for 246 yards in Sunday’s 31-14 win of Miami. WR Terrell Owens has been a plus since Fitzpatrick took over: Owens caught nine passes for 197 yards, including a team-record 98-yarder for a score, two weeks ago in an 18-15 loss at Jacksonville, and 5 catches for 96 yards against Miami. The Bills have injuries in the secondary and this game has a low total. Look for more offense than oddsmakers expect, play the Jets/Bills Over the total.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-3-09

Sixth Sense

NY Jets -3 Buffalo 37 (Toronto)
NY JETS 17 BUFFALO 13

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-3-09

Randall the Handle

NFL
BUFFALO +3 +1.04 over NY Jets Pinnacle
You can treat this one like a home game for the Bills, as it will be played in Toronto and busloads of people from Toronto have been going to see the Bills play in Buffalo for decades. They have a huge fan base north of the border because it’s only about 100 miles away. With that said, I can’t think of too many more things less unappealing than laying road points with the Jets on a short week. The Jets had dropped six of seven before last week’s unimpressive 17-6 win over Carolina. The Jets didn’t win that game, the Panthers lost it and that’s all there is to it. You can count on the Jets to make plenty of miscues and mistakes because that’s who they are. Mark Sanchez has been exposed as a very ordinary QB that will be forced into errors and allowing any team to stay in it. Despite some key injuries the Bills have looked a whole lot better under new coach Perry Fewell. In two weeks since taking over the head coaching reigns, the Bills lost in Jacksonville 18-15 and last week they crushed the Dolphins 31-14. The Bills are now 3-3 over its last six and that includes a win in New York, 16-13 and a win in Carolina by a score of 20-6, which incidentally makes the Jets win last week look even less impressive. The Bills defense (still coordinated by Fewell) is tough and in fact kept the Dolphins in check last week when they did not allow a run of more than 13 yards. The Jets play a similar style to that of the Dolphins in that they run first and pass when they need to. Rex Ryan is asking Sanchez to pass less and less these days because the rookie cannot be trusted. The Bills seem to have a renewed spirit about them playing for Fewell and frankly, there’s not a single team in the NFL that the Jets are worthy of laying road points against. Play: Buffalo +3 +1.04 (Risking 2 units).

NHL
Anaheim +1.30 over DALLAS (REG) Pinnacle
The Ducks have played just nine road games (the lowest in the league) this season and they’re coming off a long, seven-game home stand. It would be safe to assume that they’re thrilled to get back on the road for a couple of games and even though they’ve lost two straight they’re looking a whole lot more dangerous these days. The Ducks are good; make no mistake about that. They can play the cycle and fore-check game as good as anyone. The problem is they sometimes do not show up but after seven home games and a two-game losing streak, one would expect a solid effort tonight. When the Ducks are right, they can beat anyone and come playoff time and if they make it, there are seven teams in the west that wouldn’t want to draw them in the first round. The Ducks have recent wins over both Calgary and Chicago, arguably two of the best and hottest teams in the league. The Stars have dropped three of four with only victory over that stretch being a 4-3 OT win over Tampa Bay. The Stars are a decent team but in no way are they worthy of this price over a Ducks team that is every bit as good as this host and very likely better. Nice spot and a great price on the Ducks. Play: Anaheim +1.30 (Risking 2 units).

NBA
Boston +1.05 over SAN ANTONIO Pinnacle
The best part about this is that the Spurs have reeled off five in a row to push its record to 9-6. That modest win streak has increased their stock, thus creating an absolutely beautiful opportunity here. A close look reveals that the Spurs last five victims has been Washington, Milwaukee, Golden State, Houston and Philly and all five of those teams are going to be somewhere in the neighborhood of .500 or less when the season is over. The Spurs have had the luxury of an easy schedule that has seen them just three games against a top-10 team. They’ve played Dallas twice and the Blzers once and in those games they’re 1-2. The rest of the games they’ve played were all winnable, yet the Spurs are just 9-6 and now they’ll face the only team in the NBA that has a legit shot of beating the Lakers for the championship. The Celtics are wickedly good in every aspect of the game. They’re 7-1 on the road and they’re 14-4 overall. They, too, have reeled off five straight against some not-so-tough opposition but the difference is that the C’s are the class of the East and one of the top three teams in the league. The Spurs will take a huge step up in class tonight and play its toughest game of the year and frankly, they just have not proven a damn thing this season except that they can be beat. Play: Boston +1.05 (Risking 2 units).