12-3-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-3-09

Doc

3-Unit Play #705 Take Miami/Denver UNDER 209 (10:30 p.m. EST, Thursday)
The Nuggets have been scoring a lot lately but their last four games (including two against Minnesota) have all been against weak defenses. The Heat, however, are no defensive slouches as they are ranked No. 9 in defensive PPG and No. 5 in defensive field goal percentage. We just think this number is a bit overinflated. This one is much higher than both of the Nuggets totals against Minnesota and nearly as high as their total against the Knicks. Neither of those teams is near the same defensive level as Miami. Both teams had last night off and that should increase the defensive intensity on a National TV game. Miami doesn’t have an explosive offense so they will have to rely on defense to keep this close. These teams met last month in Miami and the Heat held the Nuggets to 88 points so we know they match up well defensively. The total of that game came in at 184. We expect more to be scored here on Denver’s home floor but we just think this line is a few too high.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-3-09

Maximus

LOCKS:
TAKE EASTERN ILLINOIS Panthers +1 ½ vs Tennessee State: This game is being played at the Gentry Complex on the campus of the Tennessee State Tigers and begins at 8:30 P.M. EST.
EVALUATION: The Tennessee State Tigers come into this game with a 1-6 SU mark, and have only had 3 rated games in which they are 1-2 ATS. They are only averaging 62.5 pts a game, and have been getting beat by an average of over 12 points a game. The Tigers are not very good at taking care of the ball and have avg’d 8 more turnovers a game than the Panthers, and they have 4 less assists per game also, their 1-2 home record does not bode well for the Tigers either, and have been averaging a very weak 38.6% shooting percentage, while allowing opponents a whopping 51.3% shooting percentage. The preseason prediction of the Tigers finishing 9 out of 10 teams looks like it could become reality. Eastern Illinois is 3-2 SU and have covered the spread in their only rated game. They are averaging 75 points a game and have a some motivation in this contest since the last time they ventured into Tiger territory they were ambushed and lost by 20 points. Their 49.3% shooting percentage is really high, and they try to protect the ball by having 5.2 more assists averaged per game than turnovers. Even without Romain Martin who has not been able to play this year yet, we like the Panthers to open up with Ohio Valley Conference play with a win here.
PROJECTION: EASTERN ILLINOIS 73 TENNESSEE ST. 66

TAKE GEORGIA SOUTHERN EAGLES +11.5 vs College of Charleston Cougars. The game is being played at Carolina First Arena on the Campus of the Coll. Of Charleston Cougars, and begins at 7:00 PM EST
EVALUATION: College of Charleston enters this contest with 1-3 SU record, and have been scoring 67 points a game. They have been getting beat by an average of 5 ½ points a game, and that includes a 17 point loss to the Tennessee Volunteers. Their 41.7% shooting percentage is respectable, but they turn the ball over 2 extra times a game avg. over assists, the key stat we don’t like in this game is that they have they second worst rebounds allowed in the league at 45.3 per game. Georgia Southern is 3-4 and have been averaging 77.86 points a game, and have a really hard early season so far with losses coming by the way of a very good Florida Gator team, Valparaiso, and Jacksonville St. The Eagles have been putting up over 80 points a game in their last 3 games and have won 2 of those 3 games only dropping the contest to Valparaiso. The key for the Eagles is their shooting percentage, in the games they scored over 80 they have an avg. over 48.5% shooting percentage, and the College of Charleston allows opponents to shoot 44.8%, so we think this is a good thing for the Eagles.
PROJECTION: Georgia Southern 76 College of Charleston 75

SOLIDS:______________________Projections
FAIRFIELD -15 vsMarist_________________________Fairfield 79-56
IDAHO PKvs CS Northridge______________________Idaho 76-71
ELON +13 vs Samford __________________________Samford 65-62
SE MISSOURI ST. +15 1/2 vs Austin Peay___________Austin Peay 70-61

OVER/UNDER
Washington/Texas Tech UNDER 155 ½__________________141
Princeton/Rutgers OVER 117_______________________131

MONEYLINE
Baylor +285 _________________________Baylor 68-66
Furman +370_________________________Furman 72-68

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-3-09

Ferringo

2-Unit Play. Take #725 Eastern Kentucky (+9) over Murray State (7 p.m.)

2-Unit Play. Take #739 Eastern Illinois (+1) over Tennessee State (8:30 p.m.)

2-Unit Play. Take #735 Morehead State (-4) over UT-Martin (8:30 p.m.)

1-Unit Play. Take #721 Idaho (Pk) over CS-Northridge (10 p.m.)

1-Unit Play. Take #723 Baylor (+8.5) over Arizona State (10:30 p.m.)

1-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 153.5 Washington at Texas Tech (7 p.m.)

1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #725 Eastern Kentucky (+14) over Murray State (7 p.m.) AND Take #739 Eastern Illinois (+6) over Tennessee State (8:30 p.m.)

1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #718 Wright State (-5.5) over Cleveland State (9 p.m.) AND Take #714 UW-Milwaukee (-5) over Loyola-Chicago (8 p.m.)

1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #721 Idaho (+5) over CS-Northridge (10 p.m.) AND Take #723 Baylor (+13.5) over Arizona State (10:30 p.m.)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-3-09

ATS lock club
4 units Oregon state

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-3-09

Booooj

15 units on Oregon State (+9.5) over Oregon

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-3-09

vegas-runner | NBA Sides Thu, 12/03/09 - 8:05 PM Â~

double-dime bet 702 SAN -1.0 (-110) Bodog vs 701 BOS
Analysis:
** NBA on TNT 2* TOP PLAY OF THE DAY **

BETUS is using PK !!

Bottom Line..."Value"...and that's exactly what we are getting by backing the Spurs at home tonight, in more or less a pick'em spot...And the reason for this is that the Celtics have won 5 straight games, and have covered their L/3...And more importantly, have had plenty of success on the road overall this year...and also historically at SA...

But tonight, the situation is much different...The Spurs have also won 5 straight and are playing their best basketball of the season...Although they are only 9-6 overall this season...they are 80% SU at home (8-2)...Which means that we have to give even more weight to their Home Court Edge...

And let's not forget...the L/3 times that Boston came to town...they were getting +3.5, +4.5, & +13...So we are surely getting some line value here...

But more importantly, the Celtics are plauing their 3rd straight road game...While the Spurs have been resting up, having not played since Sunday...And you can be sure that they've had some time to plan for tonight's "Prime-Time" TNT game...Look a little deeper, and you will find that the Spurs have ONLY played "2" Road Games since NOV 6th...Which is why they've also been playing their best ball...Because being home like that allows for extra practice, and extra rest...And we know how difficult the Spurs can be to defeat when they have those 2 things going for them...being an older ball club...

So let's go ahead and back the Spurs in the 1st Game of Tonight's TNT Coverage...and make it the To‹p NBA Play of the Day...VR (We may also be taking a position on the 2nd TNT Match-up...If so, it will be included in tonight's "All-Access" Pass)...

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-3-09

Handicapper: Rocketman Sports
Sport: NBA Basketball
Game: Houston Rockets @ Golden State Warriors - Thursday December 3, 2009 10:35 pm
Pick: 1 unit ATS: Houston Rockets -1.5 (-110)

Houston is 10-8 overall this year while Golden State comes in with a 6-11 record on the season. Houston is 21-5 SU at Golden State since 1996. Rockets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games. Rockets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a victorious % below .400. Rockets are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a losing SU record. Rockets are 34-16-3 ATS in their last 53 Thursday games. Rockets are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Rockets are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Golden State. We'll recommend a small play on Houston tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-3-09

Craig davis
30 dime
winner #5
in a row


new york jets




10 dime bonus winner

oregon state

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-3-09

LT Profits

NCAAB

Princeton +8.5 -110 (writeup below)
Youngstown State/Detroit UNDER 63 -110 (First Half)
Eastern Kentucky/Murray State OVER 133 -110
Loyola-Chicago/Wisconsin-Green Bay UNDER 140.5 -110

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-3-09

Wunderdog 12/3 nhl pick

Game: Vancouver at Philadelphia (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Philadelphia -130 (moneyline)

The Flyers will be glad to get back home. They have been on the road for six out of seven, and have lost five of their last six. The Canucks have not been doing well on the road, where they have taken the money in just five of their last 13 games. The Canucks have done even worse playing without rest as they are now 3-8 in their last 11. The Flyers have been destroying teams that have a road winning percentage of .400 or less for years as they are 115-52-23 in their last 190 games. That says all you need to know to find the value is in this one, I'll grab the Flyers here.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-3-09

Tony Weston THURSDAY'S PLAYS 30 Dime Oregon State
10 Dime Bills

Oregon State at Oregon
OREGON STATE - In a winner-takes-all matchup in the Civil War, Oregon State will cover on the road at Oregon and flirt with the outright victory as about a 9 1/2 point underdog.

Coming into this game the Beavers have gone 6-1 SU and ATS their last 7 games. In that stretch the team has ripped off 4 consecutive wins SU and 3 straight covers.

Consider, too, Oregon State has covered in 4 straight road games and is 4-1 ATS on the road this season. For the year, the Beavers are outscoring their opponents on the road, beating them by an average of less than 12 points per game (32-20.8).

On the other side, Oregon has failed to cover in 2 of its last 3 games and has failed to cover in 5 of the last 9 meetings between these two.

The last time Oregon hosted Oregon State, the Beavers walked away with a 38-31 outright victory as a 1-point underdog.

The Beavers will cash in again on the road and flirt with the outright victory.


Jets at Bills
BILLS - With former head coach Dick Jauron gone, Buffalo comes into this game in Toronto having played solid back-to-back games, including Sunday’s 31-14 beat down of the Dolphins.

The Bills have covered in each of their last 2 games and have gone 4-2 ATS their last 6 games overall.

The Jets, on the other hand, have gone 2-6 ATS their last 8 games and are only 1-3 ATS their last 4 games overall.

On the road New York has failed to cover in 3 of its last 4 games. Now they face a Bills team that beat them SU and ATS when they first met on Oct. 18. In their last 6 meetings Buffalo has gone 5-1 ATS against the Jets. They’ll cash in again tonight.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-3-09

Nick Parsons

DENVER NUGGETS -9

For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this matchup is on the home side:

Miami won 96-88 on Nov. 6 to end an eight-game skid in the series despite Carmello Anthony outscoring Dwayne Wade 30-22. It was Denver’s first loss after a 5-0 start.

Wade helped the Heat get back on track Tuesday in the opener of a four-game road trip. Following back-to-back home losses, Miami beat Portland 107-100 as Wade had 22 points and a season-high 12 assists; however I expect a "letdown" this evening.

Miami is a poor 2-8 ATS its last ten overall.

On the other side of the court: Denver looks to remain undefeated at home against the Heat since they drafted Anthony and avenge last month’s loss.

Seven Nuggets scored in double figures Tuesday as Denver posted its highest-scoring game of the season. Unlike in Sunday’s loss in which the Nuggets blew a 17-point lead, they were able to build on a 69-55 advantage at the half, taking a 23-point advantage into the fourth quarter.

Keep in mind that Denver is 4-2 ATS its last six overall, 14-5 ATS its last 19 at home and 6-2 ATS its last eight vs. Miami.

Bottom line: Because of all the above reasons, but mainly because of the "revenge" factor, look for DENVER to improve to 10-7 ATS when playing the roll of favorite and for Miami to fall to 3-5 ATS its last eight when playing against a team with a winning record.

*8* NUGGETS

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-3-09

Tim Trushel

jets/ regular
oregon state / 20*

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-3-09

Ron Raymond

MONTREAL CANADIENS +190

When MONTREAL team Played as Road team as a Underdog - Vs Division Opponent - playing on Thursday - Coming off vs Northeast division opponent; the Habs are 9-2-1 SU in this role. (2*)

Take Montreal.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-3-09

Rocketman

MOREHEAD STATE -4.5

Both teams come in with identical 1-3 records on the season. Tennessee Martin is 0-12 SU and 2-9 ATS since 1997 as a home underdog of 3 1/2 to 6 points. Tennessee Martin is allowing 80.2 points per game overall this year. Morehead State is 4-1 SU and ATS overall vs Tennessee Martin the past 3 years. Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games. Eagles are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Ohio Valley. Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5. Eagles are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Eagles are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 Thursday games. Eagles are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Skyhawks are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games as a home underdog. Skyhawks are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog of 0.5-6.5. Eagles are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. My unique power ratings have Morehead State winning by 12.73 points. We'll play Morehead State for 3 units tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky.