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Re: 12-5-09
BUDIN
Saturday's Play NEW YORK CREW
25 DIME RELEASE
Rutgers
BUDIN
Saturday's Play NEW YORK CREW
25 DIME RELEASE
Rutgers
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Re: 12-5-09
Malinsky
4* #728 MISSISSIPPI over SOUTHERN MISS
There will be a much different Ole Miss team on the floor than the one that lost to Southern Miss LY, when Chris Warren, Eniel Ploynice and Trevor Gaskins could only sit and watch because of injuries. This will also be a much different Golden Eagle squad than the one that got that win. And it all lays out for a decisive payback win from an under-rated team, and a coach that is ideal to lay this pointspread range with, since he insists on 40 minutes of hard play every game.That coach is Andy Kennedy, who is 13-7 ATS laying double figures since taking over the Rebel program. This is not the day for that pattern to change. With legitimate talent all through his deep rotation (nine players are averaging at least 11 minutes per game), Kennedy can stay on the gas with a variety of combinations. The chance for Terrico White and Chris Warren to play together is producing just what they had hoped, with scoring averages of 17.3 and 17.1, and how nice is it to have contributors like Murphy Holloway’s 13.2 points and 9.2 rebounds per game, and Polynice’s 9.0 points, 3.7 rebounds and 3.7 assists, coming from players that do not start? This is also a team more than ready to step up to this challenge, having faced tough competition at San Juan last weekend, then also getting an easy road win at Arkansas State after returning to the mainland. With nothing on deck until soft touch McNeese State next Saturday, there is nothing in the way of a revenge rout in this one.Southern Miss is certainly not in the way. Here is how Larry Eustachy previews a campaign in which he only has three returnees to his playing rotation ”The season will be over too quick, but the positive is we’ll only lose a couple guys and not real key guys.” For Eustachy it is all about trying to get the pieces to fit together, and the schedule has not helped the process – while Ole Miss was playing four lined games since Thanksgiving, all the Golden Eagles have done in the last 11 days was have a home walkover vs. Spring Hill. Having a pair of 6-0 G’s in Angelo Johnson and R. L. Horton in the starting lineup means defensive problems against those explosive Rebel guards, and we would not be surprised if there were not several crescendo runs by the home team to break this wide open.
4* #717 ORLANDO over GOLDEN STATE
With so few pieces to work with, there are some nights that it just can not happen for these Warriors, who have already lost eight games by 13 points or more. This is one of those nights. The biggest advantage that a weak team can have is for the opposiition to come in flat and not take them seriously, and that is not going to be the case in this one.Otlando will be as fresh as any Golden State opponent since the opening night of the season. The Warriors are only played for the second time in six days, the previous game being an easy coast vs. the Knicks, and they have had three full days to prepare for the particular antics that they will face. There is also no look-ahead, with nothing up until a game against the Clippers on Tuesday. And for some of the Magic there is even an added level of focus, with Michael Pietrus and Matt Barnes having played for the Warriors not too long ago, and Stan Van Gundy also having a “homecoming”, after growing up 20 miles from here in Martinez (his take - "I still enjoy going because it's one of the very few places I actually see friends and things like that. So, I always see people I know, and that's good. When I first went back there as an assistant coach with the Heat walking into the Coliseum was huge for me. It was big.")With the right energy and focus, Orlando can fully exploit monster mismatches in terms of rebounding (#6 vs. #30) and defense (#6 vs. #28), and now that Rashard Lewis is fully back in form, bringing Barnes, Brandon Bass, Ryan Anderson and Martin Gortat off the bench makes the Magic one of the deepest teams in the league in terms of front-court reserves. Who is the weakest in that regard? Golden State, of course. So a fresh Orlando team can run, have fun, and attack the basket without fear to get a plethora of easy scoring opportunities. The Warriors lack the depth to counter, and eventually the will fadesComment
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Re: 12-5-09
Stephen Nover
Saturday's winners: 100-Dime CINCINNATI BEARCATS - Pittsburgh is a good team. But the Panthers aren't as strong a team as Cincinnati and Dave Wannstedt is not as good a coach as Brian Kelly is.
The Bearcats have averaged 39.4 points in running up an 11-0 record. Although they've already clinched a share of the Big East title, they need this game to stay in the running for one of the four BCS at-large bids.
The Panthers are off a heartbreaking road loss to Virginia Tech, losing on the final play, 19-16. Pittsburgh quarterback Bill Stull is not in the class of Cincinnati quarterback Tony Pike, who is a top pro prospect. Pike missed three games but still passed for 2,048 yards with a 23-to-three touchdown to interception ratio.
Cincinnati beat Illinois, 49-36, last Friday but didn't cover as a big favorite. It was a flat spot for the Bearcats, though, facing a non-conference foe after Big East victories versus Connecticut and West Virginia.
Only once has Cincinnati scored less than 28 points. Pitt has a solid defense and excellent pass rush. The Bearcats, though, have allowed the third-fewest sacks in the nation (nine) and have committed the fewest turnovers in the country (six). They are a team that doesn't beat themselves either on the field or in the coaching department. The same can't be said for Pittsburgh.
Cincinnati is 16-7-1 (69 percent) ATS when facing a team with a winning record. Pittsburgh is 17-35 (32 percent) ATS following a loss and 1-9 ATS in its next game when scoring less than 20 points.
20-Dime FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL - These are two disappointing Sun Belt Conference teams, neither of whom plays defense. But this game means something to them. It's called the Shula Bowl.
Look for Florida International to be the more rested team and have the stronger motivation.
The Panthers were idle last week. The week off has restored their star wide receiver Ty Hilton back into top shape.
Florida Atlantic had a tough time disapatching Western Kentucky last week as nearly a two-touchdown favorite. The Owls haven't had a bye in nine weeks.
Revenge can be overrated. But in this case, revenge is a huge motivating factor for Florida International. The Panthers blew a 50-36 lead with 2:08 left last year and ended up losing to the Owls in overtime, 57-50. They've been pointing to this matchupComment
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Re: 12-5-09
Ferringo
1-Unit Play. Take #719 Eastern Michigan (+21) over Ohio State (Noon, Saturday, Dec. 5)
1.5-Unit Play. Take #725 North Carolina (+3.5) over Kentucky (12:30 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 5)
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #725 North Carolina (+8.5) over Kentucky (12:30 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 5) AND Take #731 UL-Monroe (+21.5) over Alabama (1 p.m.)Comment
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Re: 12-5-09
Marco D'Angelo | CFB Side Sat, 12/05/09 - 12:00 PM „„
triple-dime bet 324 Pittsburgh 2.5 (-110) Bodog vs 323 Cincinnati
Analysis:
PLAY: PITTSBURGH
RATING: TRIPLE DIME PLAY
First let me say that last week's game in West Virginia meant nothing to the Pitt Panthers. Yes it was the Back Yard Brawl but this year didn't have the same meaning because had another game and this game game today was for all the marbles in the Big East. It's the main reason I had WVU as I Big Play and cashed last week. This is all Pitt cared about. This next statement proves my entire point that last week was just about getting thru with no key injuries. Pitt had rushed the ball 38 or more times in 5 of their previous games prior to last week when they only ran the ball 29 times even though they were averaging nearly 5 ids a carry. The reason was Coach Wannstedt was saving his freshman running back for a bigger work load this week. Pitt will run the ball 40 or more times this week as Cincinnati has problems stopping the run. In Pitt's 5 games before WVU last week Pitt averaged 220 ids rushing a game.
Cincinnati's defense gave up 202 ids rushing to WVU, 201 to Connecticut, 290 to Fresno St and 168 to S. Florida. Pitt rushes better than all those teams. The Pitt offense also passes the ball well getting over 200 yds passing in 8 of 11 games this year.
On defense Pitt is superior has they have only allowed one team to score more than 21 points in their last 7 games and that was Notre Dame with one of the Best offenses in the Country.
Last but not least Cincinnati has the pressure of a undefeated season to cope with and all the distractions with the rumors their coach is going to take the Notre Dame job. My projected score is PITT 37- 27. TAKE PITT as MARCO'S BIG EAST MASSACRE
Marco Rated this Play a 10* PLAY on his Execu“tive Late Phone ServiceComment
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Re: 12-5-09
Marco D'Angelo | CFB Side Sat, 12/05/09 - 12:00 PM „„
dime bet 312 Rutgers 3.0 (-110) Bodog vs 311 West Virginia
Analysis: PLAY: RUTGERS
RATING: SINGLE DIME PLAY
No way West Virginia comes into this game properly prepared as they are coming off of their Big Revenge Win in the Ba“ck Yard Brawl. That game meant a lot to WVU where as today's game means more to Rutgers and that's why I am backing them here as my numbers have them winning by 7-10 points. Take RUTGERSComment
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Re: 12-5-09
John Ryan
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on East Carolina as they take on Houston set to start at 12:00 EST. This is the Conference USA Championship game. AiS shows an 85% probability that ECU will lose this game by 2 or fewer points and has a 65% probability of winning the game. Houston need help getting here from SMU and now they have to play on the road at the defending conference champs home field. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 28-9 against the MONEY LINE for 76% success and made 243 units since 2004. Play on a home team versus the money line off 2 straight wins against conference rivals with 5+ more defensive starters returning than opponent. Here is a 2nd money line system hitting 72% winners since 1999 making 43.2 units. Play against a road team versus the money line off a home win against a conference rival facing an opponent off 3 straight wins against conference rivals. AiS shows an 88% probability that ECU will score 28 or more points. Note that Houston is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road games when they allow 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons. ECU is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. Houston is also 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after outgaining opponents by 125 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games over the last 3 seasons; 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) as a road favorite of 7 points or less over the last 3 seasons; s 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games after scoring 35 points or more in a win over a conference rival over the last 3 seasons. The Houston defense is among the nation's worst in giving up 445.2 yards and it has also allowed 28.0 points per game. The Cougars have especially struggled against the run (218.2 ypg) and that gives East Carolina senior Dominique Lindsay q fantastic opportunity to dominate in Saturday's game. Remember, some guy names Chris Johnson, who now plays for the Tennessee Titans? Well, he was at ECU in 2007 so the coaches know the complete running game. Take ECU.
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Pittsburgh as they host Cincinnati set to start at Noon EST. AiS shows an 84% probability that Pitt will lose this game by 2 or fewer points and has a 62% probability of winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 20-6 against the money line making 16.8 units since 1992. The average play has been a +114 dog which matches the line for this game. Play on a home team versus the money line off a loss against a conference rival and in a game involving two top-level teams sporting win percentages of >= 80%. Pitt has a 90% probability of gaining 7.5 to 8 net passing yards in this game. Cincinnati is just 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when they allow 7.5 to 8 net passing yards/attempt since 1992. Pitt’s running game will dominate the Bearcats defensive front. This in turn will set-up high percentage pass opportunities in the spread and play action pass sets. Take Pittsburgh.Comment
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Re: 12-5-09
Goodfella
West Virginia vs. Rutgers
Rutgers had a VERY FAST 3.5 pt REVERSE LINE MOVE- and EVERYONE SAW W.Virg BEAT Pitt ON ESPN last week (I was ON W.Virg there) TYPICA zig zag play you see from off PUBLIC PERCEPTION- Rutgers REALLY balling lately and SHOULD DEFINITELY WIN THIS GAME AT HOME in THIS SPOT....W.Virg OFF HUGE rival game vs Pittsburgh & now get this Rutgers team who allows only 15 ppg at home this year. West Virginia has been very poor on the road this year going 1-3 and yielding 27ppg on the road. Rutgers is playing very good ball right now and they are 9-2 ATS L/2 years in the 2nd half of the year. Bottomline for me, this is a great spot for Rutgers here, and I LOVE the reverse line move.Play Rutgers at home in this spot guys!Comment
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