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Re: 12-5-09
trophy club
20-----loisiana tech
10----alabama
10----pitt
trophy club
20-----loisiana tech
10----alabama
10----pitt
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Re: 12-5-09
malinsky
4* #760 MISSOURI over OREGON
We shifted gears with Mike Anderson and Missouri earlier this week – after the Tigers had been one of our best single-season meal tickets ever LY it was a 6* ticket with Vanderbilt on Wednesday night, when the Commodore inside game was too much for the Tigers around the basket. But we came away impressed once again with the Missouri chemistry and tenacity in the back-court – despite losing the battle of the boards 45-24, and allowing Vandy to shoot 24-41 on two-point attempts, they were still hanging around to the very end, even going on a late 11-0 run when they appeared on the verge of being blown out. And that means time get back on the Tigers here in what has become a most dynamic setting.Anderson and the Tigers are 33-0 on this court in non-conference games, winning by an average of 25.8 points, and while the reality of that is much less than those numbers, largely because of the weak schedule, it says a lot about the confidence level that they bring. That intense trapping and pressing style for the full 40 minutes becomes an intimidating factor in front of the home crowd, and as we noted so often LY it is not just frenetic energy – they play with a real sense of purpose. Even in losing at Vanderbilt that was most evident, with a solid ratio of 16 assists vs. 12 turnovers, while the Commodores were forced into 24 turnovers, and dished out only 13 assists. Now a young Oregon team brings only two upperclassmen in the playing rotation, one being SR Tajuan Porter, who sat out the last game with a sprained ankle and may not be 100 percent, and they are subject to all of the mistakes of youth in this atmosphere.Ernie Kent has some depth and quickness, and because of that has his team running and pressing as well, but they Ducks are a long way from developing, and in reality just play into Missouri’s hands here, especially without Joevan Catron and Matt Humphrey being available. Their only road game was an 88-81 loss at Portland in which the defense was exploited, and they were dumped 68-55 at home vs. Montana. Now they leave the state of the first time, and they get taken apart in the open court as the holes in their presses get exposed (from Kent - ”The difference being we have just become a pressing team. They have been a pressing team. … It’s more ingrained in their mentality to press and run and get after people. We’re still learning and working our way through some things.”) by the precision the Tigers bring to the table. But do not look for Kent to back off – this is a developmental game for his team, which makes the scoreboard only a secondary consideration. That is a break for the coach, because it is going to be an ugly scoreboardComment
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Re: 12-5-09
Ferringo
4.5-Unit Play. Take #739 Valparaiso (+17) over Butler (7 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 5)
Note: This is our Game of the Week.
2-Unit Play. Take #773 Boise State (+17) over Illinois (7:30 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 5)
2-Unit Play. Take #771 Charlotte (+19) over Louisville (7 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 5)
2-Unit Play. Take #755 Penn State (+7.5) over Temple (4 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 5)
1.5-Unit Play. Take #797 New Mexico State (+17) over New Mexico (9 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 5)
1.5-Unit Play. Take #741 North Texas (+1.5) over Rice (3 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 5)
1-Unit Play. Take #794 Utah State (-4.5) over St. Mary’s (9 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 5)
1-Unit Play. Take #749 Hofstra (+1.5) over Towson (4 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 5)
1-Unit Play. Take #751 Northeastern (+1.5) over Drexel (4 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 5)
1-Unit Play. Take #724 UNC-Wilmington (-1.5) over George Mason (5 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 5)
1-Unit Play. Take #813 Western Carolina (-4) over Furman (4 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 5)
1-Unit Play. Take #767 Bowling Green (-4.5) over Fordham (7 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 5)
These are all 5-Point Teasers:
2.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #801 Nevada (+6.5) over Pacific (10 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 5) AND Take #733 Providence (+10.5) over Rhode Island (1 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 5)
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #785 Youngstown State (+17.5) over Wright State (7 p.m.) AND Take #739 Valparaiso (+22) over Butler (7 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 5)
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #744 Marquette (-5) over N.C. State (3 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 5) AND Take #789 Washington State (+14) over Kansas State (9 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 5)
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #737 St. Bonaventure (+15.5) over Miss. State (2 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 5) AND Take #757 Buffalo (+27) over Purdue (5 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 5)
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #805 UNLV (-3) over Santa Clara (10 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 5) AND Take #733 Providence (+10.5) over Rhode Island (1 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 5)
0.5-Unit Play. Take #749 Hofstra (+6.5) over Towson (4 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 5) AND Take #751 Northeastern (+6.5) over Drexel (4 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 5)Comment
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Re: 12-5-09
Maximus
TAKE DETROIT TITANS -3 vs Cleveland State Vikings. This game is played at Calihan Hall on the campus of Detroit, and is scheduled to tip off at 1:05 PM EST.
EVALUATION: The Titans come in with a 5-2 SU & ATS record and have won all 3 games that have been played at Calihan Hall. Their 82.3 home scoring average is a pretty solid number, and they have only been letting up 70 points average on their home floor. Detroit has some major motivation in this game, since the Vikings beat them 3 times last year, 53-44 at Detroit, 49-66 at Cleveland St, and 43-56 in the conference tourney. The Vikings have had some really tough competition early with the likes of Kentucky, Virginia, and Wichita St, but we don’t see this as an advantage, since Detroit has played a couple of tough opponents themselves such as the defensive minded Depaul Blue Demons and the California Golden Bears. We like the 46% shooting percentage that Detroit has, and they average 6.1 more rebounds a game than the Vikings.
PROJECTION DETROIT 80 CLEVELAND ST 59 TAKE JAMES MADISON DUKES vs Georgia State Panthers. This game is played at JMU Center on James Madison’s campus and is scheduled to begin at 11am PST
EVALUATION: James Madison has a 4-2 SU record and is yet to lose on the home court of the JMU center, they have been averaging 68 points a game there and are only allowing 60 points avg. We like their 41.1% shooting percentage, but would like to see their Assist/Turnover Ratio get above the 1 mark, they are currently sitting at .9.
The Panthers are turning the ball over an average of 5.4 extra times than their assists, and they are only scoring 58 points a game average on the road. The Panthers have lost all 3 game on the road SU & ATS and we expect the same thing in this game with such a small spread.
PROJECTION JAMES MADISON 68 GEORGIA STATE 60
SOLIDS _____________________________Projection
WILLIAM & MARY +1 ½ vs VCU __________________WM & MARY 72-67
ST JOHNS +17 vs Duke _______________________________Duke 71-65
MONEYLINE
ST. BONAVENTURE +600 ____________________________St. Bonnie 73-66
HERE Then is the Late Card.
NCAA BB Late Selections after 4pm 12/05/09
LOCKS:
TAKE DEPAUL BLUE DEMONS +17 vs Vanderbilt Commodores. This is being played at Memorial Gymnasium in Nashville, TN where the Commodores call home, and is scheduled to begin at 4pm EST.
EVALUATION: Both teams enter this game with a 5-1 SU mark, and have had a good start to the college basketball season. Vanderbilt has been having a good year so far, only dropping their opening round game in the MAUI Invitational to Cincinnati, they ended up as the consolation winner after beating Arizona 84-72. They came home with a tough fought win over a scrappy Missouri team, and now the Demons come a calling. Vandy likes an up tempo game averaging 80.7 points a game at home. Depaul on the other hand likes a slow and methodical game and only allows 54.8 points average per game which is 6th best in the NCAA DIV. 1 rankings. Depaul’s only loss has come to the hands of the Tennessee Volunteers where they dropped a tough fought battle as 19 ½ point dogs 53-57. This is going to be a war of wills, and we think Depaul’s will will win out, there 9.8 turnovers a game bodes well for a BLUE DEMONS cover.
PROJECTION: DEPAUL 57 VANDY 63
TAKE WASHINGTON ST COUGARS +9 vs Kansas St. Wildcats. This is being played in the Bramlage Coliseum on the campus of K-State and is scheduled to begin at 9pm EST.
EVALUATION: K-State and Wash-St. both come into this game with matching 6-1 straight up marks and each have been points up in bunches. Each team averages over 80 points a game, and each team averages opponents to a shade over 66 points a game. They both have played some pretty stiff competition with Wash St. playing in the Alaskan Shootout were awarded the championship, and K-State has played a stiff Dayton team, and a Top 25 Ole MISS team in which they dropped a 74-86 . We think the odds makers have not been giving the Cougars their just due, and until this changes, we think the Washinton St. Cougars have good value here.We think both teams are going to score in this game and score often, all stats in this game point to a very close game, and we would not be surprised to see the Cougars to pull the outright upset and win this game outright.
PROJECTION: WASHINGTON ST 75 KANSAS ST. 74
TAKE MURRAY ST RACERS -9 vs Morehead St Eagles. This is being played at the Regional Special Events Center on the campus of the Murray State, and is scheduled to begin at 8:30pm EST
EVALUATION: Murray State comes into this game with a 6-1 SU mark, and have been averaging over 81 points a game. They have been overpowering their weaker opponents, and besides a tough fought battle with Eastern Kentucky in which they won 62-60 they have been beating opponents by an average of 22.6 points a game. Morehead St is 2-3 SU on the season, and have lost to Kentucky, LA-Monroe, and Kent St., while beating sub par teams in Brescia and Tennesee Martin. We see the 83.3 points a game average of the Racers to hold up vs the Eagles weak 66.5 points a game on the road of the Eagles. Murray states 4 and 0 home record should move to 5-0 and we see them covering the spread here.
PROJECTION: MURRAY ST. 75 MOREHEAD ST. 61
SOLIDS:-----------------------------Projections:
Oregon +11 ½ vs Missouri ---------------------------------Missouri 72-70
Deleware +21 vs Old Dominion --------------------------Old Dominion 73-66
Charlotte +18.5 vs Louisville --------------------------------Louisville 77-67
Loyola- Chicago +10.5 vs Wisc-Milw --------------------Wisc-Milw 72-70
Jacksonville St -4.5 vs Tennessee Tech-----------------Jacksonville St 83-75
Eastern Illinois +7.5 vs Austin Peay ---------------------Austin Peay 75-74
MONEYLINE
FURMAN +155 ------------------------------------------------Furman 72-66
SACRAMENTO ST +235-----------------------------------------Sac St. 75-70Comment
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Re: 12-5-09
malinsky
6* #764 GEORGIA TECH over SOUTHERN CAL
Every once in a while a dark cloud can produce a silver lining, and
that was the case with our 4* Texas ticket going down against
Southern Cal on Thursday night. The extremely limited Trojans were
just as bad as we expected, with the lack of a true PG reducing the
offense to some ugly school-yard free lancing, and when the counting
was done they finished with a truly mind-numbing count of 17
turnovers vs. only two assists. We have never tracked a worse game in
terms of that ratio. But it was one of those nights in which the
Longhorns simply could not knock down open shots, going 2-11 from
3-point range and 19-34 at the free throw line. What should have been
an easy cover was not.
But going forward that works for us here, bringing a far shorter
price range that we should be seeing. Now Kevin O?Neill has to take
his basically six-player rotation even further across the country for
the second tough matchup in less than 48 hours, and they run into a
deep and talented Georgia Tech team that is not only playing with a
lot of confidence right now (that solid rout over Siena on Wednesday
was the kind of outstanding performance that gets lost in the early
marketplace), but also a sense of purpose ? this is a major revenge
affair for Paul Hewitt and his team after getting whipped 76-57 at
Southern Cal LY.
LY?s result, of course fires up the Yellow Jackets but actually means
nothing in terms of the balance of power of the programs. The Trojans
got 145 of their 200 floor minutes from DeMar DeRozan, Taj Gibson,
Daniel Hackett, and Keith Wilkinson in that win, and they are all
gone now. As stated above there is not a PG guard to either handle
the full-court pressure that they will face here, or to create open
looks when they do get a chance to set up the offense, and as bad as
the Assist to Turnover count was vs. Texas, it was also horrific
against Nebraska in Sunday?s home loss, with 17 giveaways vs. only
eight baskets created.
Tech will attack the Southern Cal weaknesses relentlessly. Hewitt has
the depth to press for the full 40 minutes, creating numerous easy
opportunities off of turnovers, and it will be a complete mismatch on
the boards, which also means easy points off of put-backs. And that
is before Trojan fatigue sets in. The second half becomes an ugly
rout-out once that happens.Comment
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Re: 12-5-09
Jack's Jones CBB For Saturday: Penn State +7.5
Penn State is simply catching too many points Saturday on the college hardwood. This team has opened with a solid 5-2 record, earning a couple impressive wins over Davidson and Virginia along the way. Penn State is 14-3 ATS versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting <=15 free throws/game since 1997. The Temple Owls settle for too many jump shots, and that's why they are shooting just 41.6% as a team this year. They are also shooting 27.3% from 3-point range on 18 attempts/game. At the free throw stripe, they get to the line just 14 times/game and shoot at a 62.6% clip. Given those numbers, you can see why the Owls are getting too much respect from the odds makers here. Penn State is averaging 22 free throw attempts/game and shooting them at a 75.7% clip. That's the difference in this game. Take Penn State.Comment
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Re: 12-5-09
DOC NBA
3-Unit Play #709 Take Sacramento +11 ½ Over Phoenix (9 p.m. EST, Saturday)
The Kings continue to get big spreads yet they have gone 4-1 ATS in games where they have been dogs of 10 points or more this season and this team is 12-5 overall ATS and they continue to evade the respect of the oddsmakers. The Kings are playing with a lot of confidence and have won four straight and the Suns come in on a two-game losing streak. We expect this one to come in under double digits even though we don’t think the Kings can win straight up.Comment
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