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The Bucks hot start has become a distant memory thanks to eight losses in their last nine games. However, Toronto is one team they can take advantage of. Not only do the Raptors allow over 111 PPG on the road this season, but they have been dreadful in the second game of back to back situations. In November, they were 0-4 SU/ATS, losing to Dallas, Orlando, Utah and Charlotte by an average of more than 21 PPG. Their first December game in this situation saw them get clobbered 146-115 in Atlanta. This past Sunday, they finally covered in this spot, blowing out a struggling Chicago team 110-78, but note the term "struggling." In fact, four of the team's five non-covers in this situation have come on the road. Milwaukee started the season by going 8-2 ATS in their first 10 games at the Bradley Center. Both teams went Under in their last game and that sets up a play on the Bucks. Toronto is 12-26 ATS when coming off back to back Unders while Milwaukee is a perfect 7-0 ATS this season when coming off an Under. Take Milwaukee.
The Bucks hot start has become a distant memory thanks to eight losses in their last nine games. However, Toronto is one team they can take advantage of. Not only do the Raptors allow over 111 PPG on the road this season, but they have been dreadful in the second game of back to back situations. In November, they were 0-4 SU/ATS, losing to Dallas, Orlando, Utah and Charlotte by an average of more than 21 PPG. Their first December game in this situation saw them get clobbered 146-115 in Atlanta. This past Sunday, they finally covered in this spot, blowing out a struggling Chicago team 110-78, but note the term "struggling." In fact, four of the team's five non-covers in this situation have come on the road. Milwaukee started the season by going 8-2 ATS in their first 10 games at the Bradley Center. Both teams went Under in their last game and that sets up a play on the Bucks. Toronto is 12-26 ATS when coming off back to back Unders while Milwaukee is a perfect 7-0 ATS this season when coming off an Under. Take Milwaukee.
Wednesday, December 09, 2009
10*WiscGreen Bay (+5) over Wisconsin
8:00 PM -- Resch Center
5*Saint Josephs (+15½) over Villanova
9:00 PM -- The Palestra
20*Connecticut (-1) over Kentucky
9:30 PM -- Madison Square Garden, NY
Alex Smart
PICK:Buffalo: +8.5 (-110) / 4 units
The Niagara Purple Eagles have rolled to a pair of easy home win and covers easily dismantling Loyola Maryland and Manhattan their L/2 times out. They beat the closing spread by an average of nearly 10 PPG. Buffalo enters tonight’s contest a mere 3-3 SU & 1-2 ATS in its three lined games. Riddle me this Batman… Why would oddsmakers open the Purple Eagles as 10-point favorites in this spot when they just destroyed 11 and 13.5-point spreads their L/2 games? It’s quite simple really, the trap’s been set and the book wants to see as much Niagara $$$ come in as possible. When it looks too good to be true, it normally is.
Buffalo hasn’t gotten off to the greatest of starts in ’09, but make no mistake; HC Reggie Witherspoon has a decent squad at his disposal. It’s a year older and coming off a 21-13 SU and 11-5 SU mark in the MAC. This club earned a share of the conference regular season title last season, and comes into this spot off a demoralizing thumping at the hands of the 4th ranked Purdue Boilermakers. The team has excellent guard play led by the duo of experienced ball handlers in Rodney Pierce and Calvin Betts, and a deep bench with big bodies that bang and control the glass.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m a huge fan of HC Joe Mihalich’s squad. They cashed for us easily last Friday night against Manhattan. That said; the team’s heart and soul, Bilal Benn won’t be suiting up for this one or any other game in the near future after having minor surgery on his knee the other day. His absence forces Demetrius Williamson out of his preferred sixth man role and into the starting line-up. I believe this line-up change will have the Purple Eagles off kilter throughout tonight’s contest and allow the gritty Bulls to hang the whole way through. Making the Bulls even more attractive in this spot is the fact that Niagara is a WOEFUL 3-15 ATS in home games off 2 straight wins against conference rivals since 1997. Look for the Bulls to put their best foot forward in this spot against a Niagara team without its floor leader knowing their division rival, Akron, beat Niagara 80-68 at home on November 29th.
Smart $$$ CBB 4* Rabid Dawg: Buffalo Bulls
7:00p
Alex Smart
PICK:Hofstra: -8.0 (-110) / 4 units
Excellent spot to back the home team Pride in this spot against a Manhattan club that should come in a bit leery playing its third game in 5 days. Oddsmakers still haven’t caught onto the fact that this year’s Hofstra outfit is a darned good bunch, and we’re going to take advantage of it. In this game, the Pride boast the best player on the court in the form of G Charles ******* whose scored an average of 20.9 PPG and dished out an average of 4 assists per game. He’s got a pair of “bigs” to feed the ball to down low, but both Szabo and Washington are solid from midrange as well. Hofstra likes to run, but it can also play small ball with its “bigs”. Manhattan was just run ragged at Niagara last Friday, and Hofstra is just as good if not better than the Jaspers this season. The Purple Eagles laid 13+ in that game, while the Pride’s laying less than double digits. Value! These teams have played it close in each of their L/4 meetings, but Hofstra holds huge advantages in rebounding, offensively, and at the charity stripe. Look for Hofstra to get up big early, and cruise to the comfy home win and cover. The Jaspers just won’t have enough left in the tank to compete for a full 40 in this one.
LT Profits
PICK:Valparaiso @ Purdue: u147.5 (-110) / 4 units
CBB Wed., 12/09/09, 7:00 ET - 4* VALPARAISO/PURDUE UNDER 147.5 ***CBB PLAY OF THE DAY*** (DSI, 2:40 PM)
7:00p
Ted Covers
PICK:Manhattan: +7.5 () / 3 units
There’s not a whole lot separating Manhattan and Hofstra these days in terms of talent. These New York City schools have faced off against one another in each of the last three years. The final scores of those games? 65-61, 73-71 and 79-77, with two of the three going into overtime. Clearly, recent series history tells us to take a good, hard look at the underdog.
We cashed a ticket betting against Hofstra last week, as home chalk against Fairfield. That was certainly not the Pride’s first failure as home favorites this season. We saw them lose outright at home to Charlotte, and failed to cover the number as eight point home chalk against Yale. As a team, Hofstra is shooting just under 43 percent from the floor; and under 29 percent from three point range; not atypical of teams that lack any sort of dominant low post presence.
Hofstra’s shooting woes aren’t going to be helped by the Jaspers intense defense. For the season, Manhattan has held foes under 37 percent shooting from the floor, while holding teams to an 0.76 assist-to-turnover ratio. Manhattan has proven they can win in hostile environments, fresh off a 14 point victory as road underdogs at Cansius in a very similar price range (+6 there). Expect this meeting to be every bit as competitive as the games from each of the last three years. (#755) 3* Take Manhattan.
Evan Altemus
PICK:Atlanta Hawks: -10.5 () / 5 units
Under normal conditions, I may not have selected this game, but tonight's game is going to
be on ESPN with a national audience. That makes all the difference to this young Atlanta
team that is close to unbeatable at home when motivated. The Hawks also have shown the
ability to blow teams out at home when motivated, even quality opponents. Meanwhile,
Chicago is playing horrible right now, and they are coming off of a loss to New Jersey,
one of the worst teams in the NBA. To make matters worse, that game was at home, where
Chicago usually plays well. I look for them to struggle in this game coming off of a game
last night. This game sets up as a perfect storm for Atlanta because of the way the Bulls
offense has struggled, plus with the lack of effort Chicago shows away from home. Atlanta
has also dominated this series recently, covering the point spread in three straight games
and winning outright in four straight games. Look for the Hawks to get a blowout home win.
5 UNIT SELECTION
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