12-9-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-9-09

Evan Altemus
PICK:New Jersey Nets: +1.5 () / 3 units
New Jersey seems to be playing with added confidence now after getting their first win a
few nights ago against Charlotte. They are coming off of another win last night against
Chicago, and I expect them to carry that momentum over into this game. Meanwhile,
Golden State is one of the worst road teams in the league, mainly because of their
horrible defense. The Warriors have given up an average of 117 points per game over their
last 5 games, allowing teams to shoot close to 50% from the field. Also, these two teams
play vastly different defense on the road compared to at home. People have forgotten
that New Jersey dealt with several injuries to start the season. Now their starting
line-up is healthier and playing well. Devin Harris and Courtney Lee are solid players but
were banged up this season. Now that they are healthy, the Nets have started to play
better. Look for New Jersey to continue their momentum with a home win tonight.
3 UNIT SELECTION

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-9-09

Ted Covers
PICK:Golden State Warriors: +2.0 () / 3 units
Yes, New Jersey won last night, notching their second victory in a three game span after starting the season with a record tying 18 game losing streak. But make no mistake about it – the Nets have no business as a favorite playing on the second night of back-2-backs against a competent foe. New Jersey lost to the 7-15 Knicks following their first win last weekend. In previous back-2-back situations, the Nets have lost by double digit margins in four out of five tries.

The Nets are getting crushed on the boards on a nightly basis, losing the rebounding battle in each of their last nine games, without the dominant low post presence to take advantage of Golden State’s biggest weakness. As a team, the Nets are the worst shooting squad in the NBA by a wide margin, hitting just 41 percent from the floor; under 40 percent playing at home in the half empty Meadowlands. This is not a team poised to trade points with a high scoring foe.

The Warriors are playing without Don Nelson on the sidelines as he recovers from pneumonia, a positive thing for a group of players that don’t seem to get along with their head coach very well. They’ve been routinely undervalued in recent weeks, entering tonight’s game on a 9-4 ATS run dating back to mid-November.

Golden State has been facing a bevy of talented foes in recent games. This murderer’s row scheduling stretch has seen them face off against Cleveland, Boston, Portland, Dallas, San Antonio, the LA Lakers, Indiana, Denver, Houston, Orlando and Oklahoma City – ten playoff caliber teams in an eleven game span. This step down in class against an opponent that is likely to have great difficulty trading points with them provides us with an optimal spot to cash with the Warriors tonight. 3* Take Golden State.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-9-09

Savannah Sports

Professional Plays
Eric Degarde
Todays Selections

NBA Basketball
3 (***) Houston Over 194

NCAA Basketball
1 (*) George Washington -1.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-9-09

Alex Smart
PICK:Missouri State: -16.5 (-110) / 4 units
onna continue to kick on the Skyhawks while they’re down. Tenn Martin has been bad in all facets of the game to date. While they rank above average offensively (#190 @ 69.3 PPG), their defense is a complete sieve as it’s allowed opponents to score an average of 80 PPG (#330) and shoot 49.3% from the field (#331). If that’s not enough, they’ve also allowed opponents to shoot at a 41.2% clip from beyond the arc (#330).

As for their opponent tonight, the Bears have been nothing short of sensational to kick start their ’09 campaign. They come into tonight’s contest a perfect 7-0 SU and have gone a $$$-making 5-2 ATS along the way. They’ve already cashed once for us this season when they went in ARK-LR and cruised to the 75-62 road win as 3.5-point chalks. They also have a solid outright home win against CUSA rep and conference title contender Tulsa. G Adam Leonard and F Kyle Weems lead the nation’s 141st ranked scoring offense (72.3 PPG) and 39th best shooting team (48%). If that doesn’t get you excited, the Bears are limiting opponents to just 59.4 PPG (#40) and a paltry 40.1% from the field (#89).

Though it failed to cover its last time out against Air Force, the Bears “D” more than held its own limiting the Falcons to just 48 overall points. Look for the offense to have a big night again in this spot against a Skyhawks “D” that’s been gouged by every one of its opponents. Take solace in the fact that Mizzou State is a stellar 10-2 ATS when they score 75-80 points in a game since 1997. With UTM allowing 80 PPG overall, look for that trend to improve by one after tonight!

Smart $$$ CBB 4* Woodshed Massacre: Missouri State Bears
8:00p
Alex Smart
PICK:Ball State: +12.5 (-110) / 3 units
The young Cardinals suffered an embarrassing home defeat to Butler their last time out in a game they shot just 31.7% from the floor and managed to tally just 38 overall points. They also turned the ball over 18 times, which made it close to impossible to compete against the Bulldogs. I’m looking for them to come out strong tonight against a Sycamores club taking the court for the first time in 10 days. Like the Cardinals, Indy State has a rough time scoring as well (68.1 PPG), and I really feel they’d have to shoot well above their seasonal mark from the field (45.1%) to cover a number of this magnitude. Ball State has taken on a tougher slate of competition, and I believe that will carry them towards the ATS victory in this spot. Making this position that much sweeter is the fact that BSU is a perfect 6-0 ATS on the road off a home loss the L/3 seasons.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-9-09

fairway jay
PICK:New Orleans Hornets @ Minnesota Timberwolves: u196.0: / 4 units
FairwayJay
4* Action - T'Wolves / Hornets 'under'
BoDog
8:05p

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-9-09

DC Riley
PICK:Milwaukee Bucks: -3.0 (-120) / 5 units
NBA 09 DEC 2009, 8:05PM ET
#710 MILWAUKEE (-3/-120)
5*BEST BET

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-9-09

Matt Fargo
PICK:Minnesota Timberwolves: +4.0 () / 5 units
The last time I ventured out on Minnesota was on Saturday and that resulted in an outright victory over Utah and this team is definitely turning a corner. After defeating Denver as 14.5-point underdogs on the road at the end of November, they have put together a five-game cover streak and this is significant since Minnesota went on a 1-10 ATS run prior to that. That included a 0-6 ATS mark at home but a loss to Memphis by a bucket on Wednesday ended that string as well and it has now covered two in a row at the Target Center. Timberwolves forward Kevin Love made his season debut against the Hornets seven weeks after he broke his left hand in a preseason game. He delivered an 11-point, 11-rebound double-double while playing half the game off the bench. His return is big as it adds more depth to the frontcourt and actually makes it a strength now. In three games he is averaging 15.7 ppg and 9.3 rpg. Last night Minnesota was stung with a bad shooting night as it shot 36 percent including 30 percent (3-15) from long range. Those nights are going to happen. New Orleans has no business laying wood on the road. The Hornets are 1-9 away from home this season and the lone victory came in Los Angeles against the Clippers and not the Lakers. In 20 games, the home team is 17-3 in New Orleans games this season so it is obviously that the host has had an edge all season. The linesmakers have no choice here but to make the Hornets a favorite and despite being 9-11, they are somehow still a very publicly backed team and that is certainly the case again tonight as the betting action is all over New Orleans early in the cycle. As a favorite of three points or more, the Hornets are 1-5 ATS on the season and this includes a cover loss just last week at home against Minnesota. The Hornets were favored by 9.5 points in that game and based on the venue switch and simple math, they should be favored by a point and a half at the most. The last meeting in Minnesota came last January and the Timberwolves were favored by a point in that game. Since then, Minnesota has remained pretty level while the Hornets have digressed considerably. The Hornets are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games against a team with a losing home record and this season they are 0-3 ATS against teams that have a winning percentage below .250. The Timberwolves are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against a team with a losing record. 5* Minnesota Timberwolves

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-9-09

LT Profits
PICK:Western Michigan: -2.5 (-110) / 4 units
CBB Wed., 12/09/09, 8:30 ET - 4* WESTERN MICHIGAN -2.5 (Bet Jamaica, 2:40 PM)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-9-09

Alex Smart
PICK:Cleveland Cavaliers @ Houston Rockets: u194.5 (-110) / 4 units
Cleveland enters tonight’s contest with the Rockets off a shocking OT loss at Memphis last night where most of the regulars posted 30+ minutes of court action with Lebron James and Mo Williams tallying 43+ minutes. In the back end of back-to-backs this year, the Cavs have played to the under four times. Though Houston has played to the over in 5 of their 8 home games this season, they enter tonight’s battle on a five-game under streak as the offense has cooled off scoring almost four PPG less, while the defense has clamped down allowing nearly 7 PPG less (93.4) than their seasonal average (100.3).

Houston has always been a tough place for Lebron to go into and succeed. The Cavs are just 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS their L/5 trips with the lone win coming in the form of a 104-102 OT victory back in 2006. These teams have battled to the under in 8 of their L/10 overall meetings, with it cashing in 6 of the L/7 overall meetings in Houston.
Only once in the L/10 meetings has both clubs registered triple digits in a game against one another. The Under is a $$$-making 9-1 ATS the L/2 seasons in Houston’s next game after playing three consecutive road games. With the Cavs losing in a surprising shoot-out at Memphis last night, look for the defense to clamp down as they know they won’t have the legs late to run with the Rockets.

Smart $$$ NBA 4* Game of the Night: Cleveland/Houston Under

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-9-09

LT Profits
PICK:Cleveland Cavaliers @ Houston Rockets: u194.5 (-110) / 3 units
NBA Wed., 12/09/09, 8:30 ET - 3* CAVALIERS/ROCKETS UNDER 194.5 ***NBA PLAY OF THE DAY*** (Bet Jamaica, 2:40 PM)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-9-09

Jim Kruger
PICK:Sacramento Kings @ San Antonio Spurs: o200.5: / 3 units
OVER

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-9-09

Alex Smart
PICK:St. Joseph's: +15.5 (-110) / 3 units
credible to see this type of line in a series like this that’s finally being played back at the Palestra. The only place it SHOULD be played! No need to dig deep into this one. This is a bitter rivalry and one Joe’s gets up for every season. They also fall into a lucrative trend that has produced a 43-10 ATS mark the L/5 seasons dealing with teams that have won 8 in a row and getting tabbed as 10+ point favorites. Grab as many points as you can in this spot and root Joes on as it tries to send the rich kids home disappointed!!!
Play On: 3* St. Josephs Hawks

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-9-09

Mike Rose
PICK:Villanova @ St. Joseph's: u147.5 (-110) / 3 units
3* VILLANOVA/ST JOE’S UNDER 147’ ACTION 9:00 ET (BOOKMAKER)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-9-09

LT Profits
PICK:Minnesota Wild: (110) / 3 units
NHL Wed., 12/09/09, 9:00 ET - 3* MINNESOTA WILD +110 ***NHL PLAY OF THE DAY*** (Bet Jamaica, 2:40 PM)
-- College Basketball --

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-9-09

Ted Covers
PICK:Cal State Fullerton: +14.0 () / 4 units
It’s not unusual to see great pointspread value among smaller schools who’s early results do not reflect their overall talent level. Look no further than Cal State Fullerton. The Titans just lost a pair of games at the Stephen F Austin tournament in Texas, blasted by Central Arkansas, then losing by a single point to the host school.

Don’t be fooled by those results. Point guard Jacques Streeter was suffering from the flu, a shell of his normal self, with only eleven points and four assists in the two games combined. Starting forward Gerard Anderson hurt his shooting hand, scoring only two points in the two games in limited action.

Both guys played, showing up in the box scores – unless you’ve been paying very close attention to the Cal State Fullerton program, you probably wouldn’t know about these issues, and assume the Titans were weaker than they actually are. Now, with both guys healthy and good to go, Fullerton is most assuredly an undervalued commodity; much they way they were a few weeks back when they pulled the outright upset as 15 point underdogs on the road at UCLA.

San Diego State is playing their typically undisciplined basketball under head coach Steve Fisher – more turnovers than assists, poor free throw shooting, and a relatively high percentage of three point shots. With a huge home game against Arizona on deck, don’t be surprised if the Aztecs look a bit distracted tonight, allowing Fullerton to hang around for the full 40 minutes. (#745) 4* Take Cal State Fullerton.