12-10-09

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  • Mr. IWS
    215 Hustler
    • Sep 2006
    • 98648

    12-10-09

    NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

    Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

    Just put them in the appropriate section (regular or premium)


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  • Mr. IWS
    215 Hustler
    • Sep 2006
    • 98648

    #2
    Re: 12-10-09

    Jeff Benton Thursday's NFL Hoops winner ... 15 Dime: BROWNS (plus the points vs. Steelers)


    Browns

    No, this isn’t a kneejerk response to losing Sunday’s 20 Dime Best Bet on the Steelers. It’s simply me coming to the realization – a little late in the game, perhaps – that the Steelers just are not a very good football team this year (or at least right now, they’re not). Good teams just don’t give up 27 points to both the god-awful Chiefs and Raiders and lose those games outright as a double-digit favorite. Good teams don’t lose at home to the Bengals as a touchdown favorite. And good teams just don’t blow fourth-quarter leads, which Pittsburgh has done in all six of its losses.

    Clearly, after that last-second loss to Oakland on Sunday (at home, no less), the Steelers are in a big-time crisis mode for the first time in a few years and the first time under coach Mike Tomlin. And given they’ve lost four straight games (including three in a row by a field goal), I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the Steelers’ collective mental approach right now is “this just isn’t our year.” One thing is for certain: Pittsburgh misses defensive star and leader Troy Polamalu. Polamalu has missed the last 3½ games, and not-so-coincidentally, the Steelers lost those contests while giving up 27, 20 and 27 points in the last three. Polamalu will be on the sidelines again tonight (and possibly for the rest of the season), and without their heart and soul, you simply cannot trust the Steelers defense – no, not even against the Browns.

    After all, Cleveland has shown some fight the last three weeks. It lost to the Lions (38-37 on the road), Bengals (16-7 on the road) and Chargers (30-23 at home), but covered the spread in all three games. Going back to Week 4, the Browns are 6-3 ATS, including a 27-14 loss in Pittsburgh as a 14-point road ‘dog in the first meeting between these squads. That game was played in perfect weather; this one will not be, as temperatures are expected to be in the teens with blizzard-like conditions. When you get this kind of nasty weather, the value on the underdog rises exponentially – and it rises even higher when that underdog is at home and catching double digits, as the Browns are.

    Cleveland not only cashed at Pittsburgh back in October, but it is 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings in this heated Rivalry, including a 10-6 home loss last year as a six-point ‘dog. Besides that and their ongoing 6-3 ATS streak over the past nine weeks, the Browns have covered in five of six against AFC opponents and eight of 11 when catching between 3½ and 10 points. On the other hand, the Steelers – who have cult following across the country – have been sending their supporters to the poorhouse recently, sporting negative ATS trends of 4-9 overall, 2-6 on the road, 3-9 as a favorite and 1-6 as a road chalk. Most tellingly, Pittsburgh has failed to cover in five straight games against a team with a losing record. That last one tells me two things: 1) The Steelers have a habit of playing down to their level of competition; and 2) As I said at the outset, the Steelers just aren’t that good; they’re simply living on reputation.

    In the end, because they have more talent and because they’re so desperate, I would expect the defending champs to find a way to win tonight. Then again, I expected them to beat the Raiders and Chiefs, too, so I certainly wouldn’t be blown away if Cleveland won this outright. Either way, given the state of both franchises right now; given the fact this is, essentially, the Browns’ Super Bowl; given the fact the Steelers will be without out their most important leader (Polamalu) and possibly their second most important leader (Hines Ward is doubtful); and given the extreme weather that’s going to play a factor tonight, the only option is to take the generous points with the home team.
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    • Mr. IWS
      215 Hustler
      • Sep 2006
      • 98648

      #3
      Re: 12-10-09

      Nick " BOOKIE KILLER" Parsons 12/10

      Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns Dec 10 2009 8:20PM

      PICK: Cleveland Browns Your pick will be graded at: 10 Belmont EXPERT: Nick Parsons TITLE: *10* "BOOKIEKILLER"! 4-0/100% RUN! REASON FOR PICK: For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this game is on the large home dog:

      Pittsburgh has lost four in a row and I believe this team is on the ropes.

      The Steelers' once-vaunted defense has blown fourth-quarter leads lately, with its worst collapse Sunday against Oakland. Pittsburgh coughed up three separate leads in the final 8:21, allowing the Raiders' 31st-ranked offense to score 21 points and leave Heinz Field with a 27-24 win.

      Receiver Hines Ward, who has six TD's in his last eight games against Cleveland, likely won't play after suffering a hamstring injury late in the loss to Oakland.

      Roethlisberger looked better last week, but should be under duress once again on the road and in adverse weather conditions.

      So it comes as no surprise to learn that Pittsburgh is a horrible 4-9 ATS its last 13 overall, 1-4 SU its last five overall and a brutal 2-6 ATS its last eight on the road!

      On the other side of the field: We were on the Browns last weekend, and I believe they will once again do just enough in this one to come sneak away with an ATS victory.

      Brady Quinn has had solid numbers in two of his last three outings; Quinn threw for 304 yards and four TD's in Cleveland's last-second 38-37 loss at Detroit on Nov. 22, then had 271 yards and 3 TDs Sunday in a 30-23 defeat to San Diego.

      Remember, Cleveland is 6-3 ATS its last nine overall.

      Bottom line: On a cold and blustery night, I believe this is simply too many points to be giving up to a home team anxious to prove itself.

      Pittsburgh is dealing with too many injuries on both sides of the ball right now; look for CLEVELAND to move to 4-2 ATS vs. division opponents this year and for Pittsburgh to fall to 3-7 ATS vs. conference opponents this season!

      *10*
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      • Mr. IWS
        215 Hustler
        • Sep 2006
        • 98648

        #4
        Re: 12-10-09

        Jim Feist's Pro Football Oddsmaker Error

        NFL (101) PITTSBURGH STEELERS VS (102) CLEVELAND BROWNS
        Take: 5-Star (102) CLEVELAND BROWNS

        Reason: We don't know what all these changes are going to do for the stumbling Steelers' (6-6 SU, 3-9 ATS), but we do know they have been money burners all year. We also know the weather conditions for the game are not going to help either offense: 22 degrees, 25 MPH wins, 80% chance of snow. After Sunday's stunning 27-24 loss at home to the Raiders as 14-point chalk, coach Mike Tomlin is making some sweeping changes, looking to go with new cornerbacks on a secondary that has blown too many fourth quarter leads. Rookie cornerbacks Joe Burnett and Keenan Lewis will play and veteran cornerback Ike Taylor possibly could lose his starting job. WR Hines Ward will not play because of a late-game hamstring injury, so WR Limas Sweed will move up on the depth chart. They also allowed a TD on the final play in a loss to the Bengals, lost 20-17 in OT at Baltimore, and gave up an 11-yard TD pass to Oakland with nine seconds left. Losing star safety Troy Polamalu has clearly hurt. He might be gone for the season and it was the fifth time in six losses that the Steelers couldn't hold a lead in the fourth quarter. Cleveland has been moving the ball and scoring some the last two games under QB Brady Quinn (8 TD, 5 picks). Quinn threw for 4 TDs, 304 yards and no picks, in a 38-37 loss at Detroit, then had 3 TDs, no picks and 271 yards in Sunday’s 30-23 loss to San Diego. On national TV, this will be the Browns Super Bowl, so the home dog has great value. Play the Browns.

        Jim Feist's 15-Star NBA TNT Game of the Month - Thursday!

        NBA (505) ORLANDO MAGIC VS (506) UTAH Jazz
        Take: (505) ORLANDO MAGIC

        Reason: 15-Star NBA TNT Game of the Month: Magic.
        Like last year, the Orlando Magic are terrific on the road, a sizzling 10-2. They are also red-hot winning 11 of 12 games. Dwight Howard scored 25 points, grabbed 11 rebounds, dished five assists and blocked seven shots on his 24th birthday to lead the Magic to a 97-86 victory against the Clippers on Tuesday night. The Magic improved to 17-4, tying their best-ever start after 21 games. The Magic play a back-to-back to close the road trip, taking on the Utah Jazz on Thursday and the Phoenix Suns on Friday. They catch a break here as Utah is no rested, having to play at the uptempo Lakers last night. This is a difficult week, playing the Spurs, Lakers and now the Magic, three games in four days against powerhouse teams. The Magic are 12-2-1 ATS the last 15 games against Utah and 6-0-1 ATS the last 7 at Utah. An excellent situational spot for the visitors. Play the Magic!
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        • Mr. IWS
          215 Hustler
          • Sep 2006
          • 98648

          #5
          Re: 12-10-09

          Randall the Handle

          BOSTON –½ -1.05 over Toronto Pinnacle

          It’s almost not fair. The Leafs will play its third game since facing the Bruins last Saturday while the Bruins have been sitting at home, not having played since then. They buried the Leafs 7-2 under less favorable circumstances in that game and while another five-goal win is unlikely, an outright win is not. The Bruins are heating up with seven wins in its last nine games and they’ll catch the Leafs playing three games in four nights and the tail end of back-to-backs. Play: Boston -½ -1.05 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).



          NASHVILLE -½ +1.05 over Columbus Pinnacle

          With just a single win in nine games prior to last night the Jackets were in urgency mode and while they did pick up the win, the were he second best team on the ice. They got some outstanding goaltending from Steve Mason and were fortunate to fend off the Panthers. That’s alarming and now they’ll travel to Tennessee to play a very difficult Preds squad. Mathieu Garon gets the call in net for the Blue Jackets and he’s hit and miss. The Jackets defense leaves plenty to be desired and when pressured they cough it up with ease and that plays right into the Predators strength. Nashville is a relentless fore-checking squad that executes the cycle as well as anyone. They’ve been playing solid and winning hockey for the past six weeks and they’re also getting rock solid goaltending. The Preds last two last wins have come against Vancouver and Chicago, they always come to play and this match-up is a good one for them. Play: Nashville -½ +1.05 (Risking 2 units).
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          • Mr. IWS
            215 Hustler
            • Sep 2006
            • 98648

            #6
            Re: 12-10-09

            MREAST NCAAB THURSDAY THRILLER

            #511 MIAMI,O. REDHAWKS @ #512 CINCINNATI REDHAWKS 8:30PM EST

            PLAY ON #511 MIAMI,O. REDHAWKS +15 -110 FOR 3 UNITS

            This is an in-state rivalry game, that obviously means more to Miami,O. than it does to the Bearcats, so expect the Bearcats to have to survive the Redhawks "A" game in this one. Redhawks familiar with good teams this year, playing Kentucky to the buzzer, and falling to a potent Dayton team bu just 7. Miami,O. getting it done as large sized dog, wearing out books at a 9-3 ATS mark in their last 12 posted as a dog of 12.5 or more, and Bearcats not wearing the favorite hat well at 1-4 ATS in their last 5. Miami,O. gets the call here.
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            • Mr. IWS
              215 Hustler
              • Sep 2006
              • 98648

              #7
              Re: 12-10-09

              JOHN MORRISON
              Daily Basketball picks 12/10

              John Morrison's pick(s) for December 10 2009
              Orlando -2.5 This game is against Utah at 10:30 PM ET
              Syracuse -2.5 This game is against Florida at 9:00 PM ET

              Daily Football picks 12/10

              John Morrison's pick(s) for December 10 2009
              Pittsburgh -10 This game is against Cleveland at 8:20 PM ET
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              • Mr. IWS
                215 Hustler
                • Sep 2006
                • 98648

                #8
                Re: 12-10-09

                The Hammer Guaranteed Selections
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                506 Utah +8.5 10:35 EST
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                • Mr. IWS
                  215 Hustler
                  • Sep 2006
                  • 98648

                  #9
                  Re: 12-10-09

                  The Consensus Group Guaranteed Selections
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                  Comment

                  • Mr. IWS
                    215 Hustler
                    • Sep 2006
                    • 98648

                    #10
                    Re: 12-10-09

                    Chris Jordan Thursday winners ...
                    400? ORLANDO - This is a tough spot for the Utah Jazz, as they not only come in after a 101-77 pasting at the hands of the defending champion Lakers, but they're going to be playing for the fifth time in seven days. And, Utah has alternated being home and away during this time. Can you say weary?

                    And even worse for the Jazz, tonight is a sandwich game between a home-and-home series with the Lakers. Yup, Kobe and company will be in Salt Lake on Saturday for another showdown.

                    Again, simply a bad spot to be taking on a red-hot Magic team that has won six straight (4-2 ATS) by an average final score of 108-97. And five of those wins came on the road by the way. With a win tonight, Orlando will have produced a better start than any other Magic team: 18-4 after 22 games.

                    I'm looking for big things from Dwight Howard, who comes in after pouring in 25 points, yanking down 11 rebounds and swatting seven shots on his 24th birthday, Tuesday night against the Clippers. Last season Superman averaged 28 points in two wins against the Jazz. And since the Jazz played last night, look for Orlando to get the tempo off an running early on, taking Utah's wind from it immediately.

                    The Magic have won their past two meetings in Utah, so I don't think a raucous Jazz crowd not be a factor. Besides, the Magic are on ATS streaks of 6-2 on the road and against the Northwest Division, 5-1 playing on one day's rest and 12-5-1 when laying points on the road in this range and 7-3 overall.

                    On the other hand, the Jazz are mired in ATS slides of 10-25-2 against Southeast Division teams and 8-20 when playing on the second of back-to-back nights.

                    And in this series, it's all Orlando, which is on ATS runs of 13-3-1 in this series overall and 6-0-1 in Utah.

                    Lay the road chalk.

                    100? RHODE ISLAND - This is a mighty defensive Rams team that is going to be too much little ol' Northeastern, which comes into this contest with a 2-4 mark on the season. Rhody has been pressing extensively - both full and half court - and has won six of its first seven games. So while teams try to establish their identity early on in ball games, the Rams won't allow much it, living and dying by the pressure-cooking D.

                    They really don't have much choice, as there are no pure offensive weapons any longer in uniform; but the speed, agility and athleticism on defense helps dictate the flow of games. You combine those factors with that pressure, and you find teams forced into making hasty decisions, which ultimately cause mistakes and turnovers.

                    Coming into tonight, Rhode Island is averaging 10.4 steals, which ranks 19th-best in the nation, while it is forcing 18.6 turnovers, (29th in the country). Their steals-to-turnover ratio is 73-89, 0.82, 11th-best in the nation. And thanks to the transition game, the Rams average 81.3 points, 25th in the country.

                    All Rams tonight.

                    50? OVER Steelers/Browns - Crunching the numbers, I have this game soaring past the number. And since most of the injuries taking place have been on defense with both of these teams, I don't see how either will be able to contain the other. Pittsburgh's secondary has been atrocious lately, so Brady Quinn and company might find themselves achieving things they haven't been able to do normally against the Black and Gold. That doesn't mean the Browns cover though, as they're still the Browns. Pittsburgh will be able to move the ball effectively as well. This one goes over.
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                    • Mr. IWS
                      215 Hustler
                      • Sep 2006
                      • 98648

                      #11
                      Re: 12-10-09

                      ATS LOCK CLUB
                      3 units on Pittsburgh (-9.5) over Cleveland, 8:20pmET
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                      • Mr. IWS
                        215 Hustler
                        • Sep 2006
                        • 98648

                        #12
                        Re: 12-10-09

                        Doc NBA

                        3-Unit Play #502 Take Detroit +7 Over Denver (7:30 p.m. EST, Thursday)

                        3-Unit Play #503 Take Boston/Washington UNDER 195 (8 p.m. EST, Thursday)

                        3-Unit Play #506 Take Orlando/Utah UNDER 202 (10:35 p.m. EST, Thursday)
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                        • Mr. IWS
                          215 Hustler
                          • Sep 2006
                          • 98648

                          #13
                          Re: 12-10-09

                          R Ferringo

                          2-Unit Play. Take #515 Colorado (-2.5) over Colorado State (9:30 p.m., Thursday, Dec. 10)

                          2-Unit Play. Take #509 Northeastern (+7.5) over Rhode Island (7 p.m., Thursday, Dec. 10)

                          1.5-Unit Play. Take #519 Oakland (+21.5) over Michigan State (7 p.m., Thursday, Dec. 10)

                          1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 146.0 Syracuse at Florida (9 p.m., Thursday, Dec. 10)

                          1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #519 Oakland (+26.5) over Michigan State (7 p.m.) AND Take #509 Northeastern (+12.5) over Rhode Island (7 p.m.)


                          0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #507 Mississippi State (-6.5) over DePaul (6:30 p.m.) AND Take #509 Northeastern (+12.5) over Rhode Island (7 p.m.)
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                          • Mr. IWS
                            215 Hustler
                            • Sep 2006
                            • 98648

                            #14
                            Re: 12-10-09

                            Wunderdog

                            Handicapper: Wunderdog Sports
                            Sport: NHL Hockey
                            Game: Ottawa Senators @ Philadelphia Flyers - Thursday December 10, 2009 7:05 pm
                            Pick: 5 units TOTAL: Under 5.5 (+100)

                            The Flyers erupted for six goals in their last outing against the Islanders, but one game does not fix the woes they have shown. They are still trying to find the net as they have failed to top the two-goal mark in their previous six games and averaged a pathetic 1.17 per contest in those six games. The Senators arent in much better shape on the offensive end where they have scored just 18 times in their last eight games, or just better than two per contest. That leaves a lot of wiggle room for this one to stay well UNDER the total posted. The potential of one of these teams going off on the offensive end is very marginal, and odds favor this one to stay UNDER the total - my play in this one.
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                            • Mr. IWS
                              215 Hustler
                              • Sep 2006
                              • 98648

                              #15
                              Re: 12-10-09

                              Craig Davis

                              20 DIME

                              WINNER #2

                              IN A ROW

                              Cleveland/Pittsburgh UNDER
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