12-17-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-17-09

Lenny Del Genio

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +3

The Jaguars always play the Colts tough. Back in Week 1, they were a failed 2-point conversion away from sending the game into overtime and ending Indianapolis' dream for an unbeaten season almost before it even started. It was the third time in four meetings that a game in this series was decided by three points or less. No matter what HC Jim Caldwell says, the Colts really have NOTHING to play for. They have already clinched the division and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Jacksonville, meanwhile, is in MUST win territory. They have won five of their last six at Alltel Stadium where they may have a bad spread record, but that's because they have failed to cash ten straight times here when favored. Tonight, they are an underdog. This is the first time all season that a home game will not be blacked out in Jacksonville. Weather will work to the Jaguars advantage as the forecast calls for strong winds and rain and remember that the Colts are a dome team playing outdoors. Jacksonville is our 20* AFC South Game of the Month.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-17-09

vegas-runner | NBA Total Thu, 12/17/09 - 10:35 PM †

double-dime bet 705 PHO / 706 POR Under 202.5 Bodog
Analysis:
** NBA on TNT 2* PERSONAL PLAY **

With so much money expected to be bet on the Over by the Public...I highly recommend that you wait until closer to tip-off, because this is the late TNT match-up...And although the Wiseguys went UNDER as soon as this line went up...the public money has already forced the adjustment upwards again...giving us even more betting value...VR

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-17-09

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

Magic/Heat UNDER 201

For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this matchup is on the "under":

Michael Beasley dunked home a Dwyane Wade miss to seal a victory in the waning seconds of the Heat’s visit to Orlando last month, and the Magic will look to atone for that surprising loss Thursday night when they try for their seventh win in eight trips to Miami.

The Magic appeared on their way to a 13th victory in 14 regular-season games against the Heat when Wade air-balled a jumper in the closing seconds, but Beasley grabbed it and dunked it to give Miami a controversial 99-98 win.

Rashard Lewis had his worst game of the season in the Magic’s loss to the Heat, shooting 3 of 15 and finishing with nine points.

Orlando throttled the Raptors last night; I expect an offensive "letdown" this evening though.

Dwight Howard spent the evening showing why he’s the league’s reigning Defensive Player of the Year, finishing with 14 rebounds and eight blocks.

Keep in mind the total has gone "under" the posted number in 11 of Orlando's last 16 on the road overall.

On the other side of the court: On the topic of his teams recent success: "We have to get that chip back on our shoulder," forward Udonis Haslem said. "At the start of the season, people were picking us to finish near last in the league. Then we started well and people started thinking we're better than people first thought. We might have exhaled a little bit. But that can't be us. We have to get it back."

It's interesting to note that Miami has seen the total go "under" the posted number in three of five games vs. division opponents.

Bottom line: I expect both teams to create offense through their defense; when taking all of the above into account, the sharp money is on the UNDER!

*9* UNDER.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-17-09

vegas-runner | NFL Side Thu, 12/17/09 - 8:20 PM *†
triple-dime bet 302 JAC 3.5 (-110) Bodog vs 301 IND
Analysis:

*** NFL 3* BEST BE•T OF THE DAY ***

BODOG is already at +3.5...If your book still has 3, then the vig should allow you to buy the 1/2 point very cheaply...So make sure you take this up to 3.5...VR


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vegas-runner | NBA Total Thu, 12/17/09 - 10:35 PM *†
double-dime bet 705 PHO / 706 POR Under 202.5 Bodog
Analysis:

** NBA on TNT 2* PERSONAL PLAY **

With so much money expected to be bet on the Over by the Public...I highly recommend that you wait until closer to tip-off, because this is the la•te TNT match-up...And although the Wiseguys went UNDER as soon as this line went up...the public money has already forced the adjustment upwards again...giving us even more betting value...VR

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-17-09

CHRIS JORDAN

Thursday winners ...
300? COLTS - What's that you say? You thought there were some injury issues with this defense.

How about linebacker Gary Brackett?

Indy's athletic enforcer has teamed with Clint Session to form one of the deadliest duos this team has seen in quite some time. They looked tremendous against the Broncos last Sunday and I believe they'll be all over David Garrard. Granted, Garrard has the wheels to be dangerous, unlike Denver's Kyle Orton, but Brackett has the knack of using his instincts and intelligence to sniff out play-action and misdirection by opposing offensive units.

I'm counting on him to be the key to this defensive push today, as Garrard has to be pressured the entire game.

Shouldn't be that hard, as the defense has been doing for most of the season.

The undefeated Colts come into this game tied for second in the league at 16.7 points allowed, some of the smallest points allowed in a dozen or so years. The last time the defense was this stingy the Colts allowed 16.4 points per game in 2007.

So with that, my question is if the Colts are being stingy on defense and are busy shutting down the Jags, how in the world will the home team be able to keep up with one of the most prolific offenses in the league?

This is a no-brainer.

MAKE NOTE - the line is currently -3. Lay the field goal only, and if the line goes to -3-1/2, then buy the hook down. Quite honestly, it's advisable to buy the 1/2 point down to -2-1/2 off the 3 as well, in the event of garbage-time scoring in the fourth quarter, resulting in a three-point win.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-17-09

Frank patron
100000 unit game of my career #4
indianapolis colts -3

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-17-09

ATS Lock

4 Units Orlando Magic
3 Units Indianapolis Colts

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-17-09

Lee Sterling from Paramount Sports:

1* Indianapolis

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-17-09

Savannah Sports

NFL Selections

2(**) Jacksonville Over 42

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-17-09

ANDRE GOMES

3* Chicago Bulls
3* Orlando Magic

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-17-09

Street Rosenthal of HandicappingTrends

*200 New York Knicks +3 (NBA)
*200 Dallas Stars +108 (NHL)

*200 Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5
Let me first say that if the Colts were not undefeated I would grade this play at least a *300.
Tonight we have the trends and public betting siding with one another. However, the line is reversing against both. Currently 75% of the public is wagering on the Colts and the line has dropped a full point. It appears that the "sharps" are betting on the Jags tonight.

What trends are the public betting with: The Jags have not won a game since 1995 in week 15 or greater vs a team on a 2 or more winning streak, they are 0-12 in this situation. The Colts are 6-0 ATS on Thursdays.
We have all heard about the Colts playing every man, going for 13-0 and an undefeated season. That may be true, but would you risk losing Peyton Manning and a chance to win a Super Bowl for a undefeated season? I think we will see 2nd string rookie qb Painter tonight. The Colts have already clinched home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs, and appear to have no interest in pursuing a perfect regular season at all costs. Coach Jim Caldwell has indicated all his healthy players will play, but for how long remains to be seen.

Let's not forget about the last meeting between these two teams. Indianapolis made a defensive stand with under 2 minutes remaining to seal a hard-fought 14-12 victory in Week 1.

For the first time this season at home, the Jaguars will be playing in front of a capacity crowd. They have performed well at home despite the lack of support (they are 5-2 this year in Jacksonville), and the increased presence in the stands this week can only help.

Something else to point out for tonight. The Jags will be in 2nd place in the AFC South tonight with a win!
Take the Jags and all the points you can get for the cover!

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-17-09

Trey Scott of HandicappingTrends

*200 Auburn +10 (CBB)
*200 Denver -17 (CBB)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-17-09

NSA

20* NFL Jaguars +3
20* NFL Jaguars under 43
20* NBA Knicks +3
10* NBA Trailblazers -2
10* CBB Florida State under 131
10* CBB UNLV over 150

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-17-09

C-Star Sports

5000 Units Jacksonville plus the points
1000 units Phoenix /Portland over the total
1000 Units N.C. State minus the points over Elon University
50 units Jacksonville/Cots under the total

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-17-09

KBHoops

5* Suns OVER 202.5 *POD*
5* Auburn +10
5* Troy -11.5