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400? FRESNO STATE BULLDOGS - Quick note, many of you might have been excited to play the Saints-Cowboys game with me, especially after I nailed the Colts for so much on Thursday. But the fact is I wouldn't touch this game with your bankroll, let alone mine. The line has gone anywhere from 7 points to 9 at some places, and it would be ludicrous for me to give you this game when I don't plan on betting it myself. Thus, we play the Dawgs.
And this is a hungry, rabid group of canine that has one person on its mind: former Fresno State defensive coordinator Dan Brown, who passed away nine months ago. So just like the Cincinnati Bengals will take the field with heavy hearts tomorrow, with the former Chris Henry on the brain, the Bulldogs will be playing the New Mexico Bowl with the coaching veteran on their minds. Last year at this same game Brown needed an IV treatment so he had enough strength to manuever his way to the University Stadium press box, so he could call defensive plays. Fresno lost the game. In March, Brown lost his two-year battle with brain cancer. And today there are a pack of Dawgs who want to win this game badly.It shouldn't be an issue against an underachieving Wyoming team that in my opinion - six wins or not - does not deserve to be in a bowl game. The Cowboys haven't beaten a winning team the entire season, and ended the campaign on a 2-4 slide. The only reason it is in the postseason is because it snuck past three-win Colorado State, 17-16, in the season finale. A Colorado State team that ranked 94th in scoring defense, but that held the Pokes to a mere 17 points.
Wyoming's offense is as bad as it comes - despite the option attack - ranking no higher than 86th (rushing) in offensive categories. That would include passing (103rd), scoring (111th) and overall (112th). Now it's supposed to challenge the 19th-best offense in the country? The 14th-best scoring offense? The seventh-best rushing game?
We have the better stats, we have the better team and we have the motivation.
Saturday's plays
20 Dime -- SAINTS (minus points vs. Cowboys)
SAINTS
New Orleans is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games when favored by 3 1/2 to 10 points, including 5-0 at home, while Dallas is 2-6 ATS against opponents with winning records. I think the Saints are due for a big game on the national stage after close calls the last couple of weeks, and the Cowboys are 21st against the pass (229.1 ypg), could be without top pass rusher DeMarcus Ware and have lost six straight ATS on the road in December.
NOTE: Buy the half-point if your line is 7 1/2 on this game.
10 Dime -- Jazz (plus points vs. BOBCATS)
Jazz
Utah is not a good road team, but I expect coach Jerry Sloan to shame his squad into a strong showing tonight after the Jazz were embarassed in Atlanta on Friday night, with Sloan yanking all of his starters in the third quarter following a 23-6 Hawks run to open the second half. The underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings between these teams, and the Jazz are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a SU loss, 4-0 ATS after an ATS loss and 5-1 ATS following a SU loss of more than 10 points.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #772 Seton Hall (-4.5) over Temple (7 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 19)
2.5-Unit Play. Take #785 Missouri State (-1) over St. Louis (8 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 19)
2-Unit Play. Take #739 Youngstown State (+9) over UW-Green Bay (3 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 19)
2-Unit Play. Take #743 Northern Illinois (+5.5) over Illinois-Chicago (4 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 19)
1.5-Unit Play. Take #766 Iowa (-5.5) over Drake (6:30 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 19)
1.5-Unit Play. Take #792 New Mexico (-11.5) over Creighton (9 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 19)
1-Unit Play. Take #730 Texas (-6.5) over North Carolina (2 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 19)
1-Unit Play. Take #735 Mississippi State (-3) over Houston (2 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 19)
1-Unit Play. Take #737 West Virginia (-15.5) over Cleveland State (2 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 19)
0.5-Unit Play. Take FIRST HALF: #737 West Virginia (-8) over Cleveland State (2 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 19)
1-Unit Play. Take #809 South Carolina (-2) over Wofford (4 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 19)
1-Unit Play. Take #775 St. Bonaventure (+21) over Syracuse (7 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 19)
1-Unit Play. Take #759 UAB (-5) over South Alabama (2 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 19)
0.5-Unit Play. Take #811 Northern Colorado (+15.5) over Oklahoma (1 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 19)
These are 5-point teasers:
1.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #730 Texas (-1.5) over North Carolina (2 p.m.) AND Take #748 Duke (-3) over Gonzaga (4 p.m.)
1.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #743 Northern Illinois (+10.5) over Illinois-Chicago (4 p.m.) AND Take #739 Youngstown State (+14) over UW-Green Bay (3 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #750 Miami (-11.5) over Florida Atlantic (4 p.m.) AND Take #783 Texas Tech (+10) over Wichita State (8 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #783 Texas Tech (+10) over Wichita State (8 p.m.) AND Take #748 Duke (-3) over Gonzaga (4 p.m.)
0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #725 Xavier (+10.5) over Butler (2 p.m.) AND Take #751 Tennessee (-6) over USC (4:30 p.m.)
0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #755 Louisiana-Monroe (+16.5) over Denver (6 p.m.) AND Take #777 UNC-Wilmington (+13) over Virginia (7 p.m.)
0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: TEASER: Take #761 Richmond (+11.5) over Florida (6:30 p.m.) AND Take #790 Alabama (+8.5) over Kansas State (8:45 p.m.)
The Duke's Sports
NFL Premium for Saturday 12/19/09:
New Orleans (-7) for 1.5 Units *'
Dallas/New Orleans 8:20:It's well documented that the Cowboys have been horrible
during the month of December.;as a matter of fact, after last week's loss to SD, Dallas is 5-15-2 ATS in that role. What is more disturbing is that the Cowboys have gone a dismal 0-6 ATS to New Orleans, all in the month of December. Saints HC Peyton, who was overlooked by Jerry Jones to coach the Cowboys, still has some animosity towards the Cowboys' organization and will have NO primed to do damage. The Saints play the favorite role in this price range well at 10-2 ATS. The Saints offensive firepower should wear down the Cwboys, especially with Demarcus Ware, their best pass rusher, battling a sprained neck. With the Saints' getting healthier as a team at this stage, we still find
value in this line despite the urgency of Dallas' needs.
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