12-23-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-23-09

Lenny Del Genio

| NBA Total
free pick 704 NJN / 703 MIN Under 200.0 Sportbet

Analysis:
10* Play Under Minnesota/New Jersey at 7:35 ET. Lenny spent years working on an NBA "totals system" and began using it in January '07 on the net, with great success. It's based on numerous factors, some of them listed here. Anticipated pace and style of both teams' play. Days of rest for teams or lack of it. Number of points scored by starters as compared to subs in recent outings (plus season-long averages). It also factors in point and rebounding differentials of the two teams. With all these factors (and many more), it's not possible to provide Lenny's "typical analysis" with his NBA totals selections. However, after last year's success, he anticipates another banner year. Play are rated 10* (Game of Day), 15* (Game of Week), 20* (Game of Month) and some rare 25* plays. Good luck. Take Under Minnesota/New Jersey at 7:35 ET.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-23-09

Handicapper: John Ryan Sports
Sport: NHL Hockey
Game: Atlanta Thrashers @ Boston Bruins - Wednesday December 23, 2009 7:00 pm
Pick: 3 units MONEYLINE: Boston Bruins -150

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Boston as they host Atlanta in NHL action set to start at 7:00 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 44-16 making 30.8 units since 2004. Play against any team against the money line revenging a same season loss vs opponent and is off 2 consecutive close home losses by 1 goal. Here is a 2nd system that has gone 69-44 making 26 units since 2004. Play against any team against the money line extremely tired team playing 8 or more games in 14 days and victorious between 51% and 60% of their games on the season in the first half of the season. Boston is a solid 31-15 against the money line (+14.6 Units) against explosive offensive teams that are scoring 3+ goals/game over the last 2 seasons. Take Boston.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-23-09

Scott Rickenbach


Players Wednesday NCAAB 10* Fresno State on Dec 23rd
Scott Rickenbach’s NCAAB Game #745 – 10* (TOP PLAY) Fresno State Bulldogs (+) @ Oregon State @ 8:30 ET Wednesday – RATING SYSTEM: Plays range from 6* up to 10*. The 6*, 7*, and 8* picks are the normal, daily play ratings. The 9* and 10* picks are the higher-rated plays and are Top Plays! A 10* Top Play is rare and, of course, is a level above a 9* Top Play!

Fresno State is 8-1 (89%) ATS the last three years when they scored 60 points or less in their prior game. That was a low-scoring defensive battle the Bulldogs just lost at Montana but their strong defense leads the way to a bounce back here against a struggling Oregon State team. The Beavers are just 7-16 ATS the last three seasons when they are facing a team that is allowing an average of 64 points or less per game. As you can see, we’ve now got a combined 24-8 (75%) ATS trend (over a 3 year period) that is working in our favor here. Getting away from the numbers and focusing on the match-up edges here also will show why we see considerable line value here with the Bulldogs grabbing a handful of points in this one.

The Beavers will struggle just to win this game let alone get any kind of a margin. Other than wins against weak opposition like South Dakota, Cal State Bakersfield, and Mississippi Valley State, not much has gone right for Oregon State this season. The Beavers are just 2-5 in their other 7 games and the two wins came by an average margin of victory of just six points. Lapses continue to cost this team as the Beavers like to play a methodical game where precision execution is the key to getting good scoring chances. Oregon State has a problem with lapses in both physical and mental effort though and good teams are making them pay. We consider the Bulldogs, off of a loss, and playing with revenge from a loss to the Beavers last season, to definitely have the qualities necessary to upset Oregon State. Fresno State has seen 6’10 250 lb freshman center Greg Smith perform well above expectations. At the same time, sophomore forward Paul George is off to a fantastic start this season. These two combine to give the Bulldogs a very formidable frontcourt.

The Fresno State guards can take advantage of an Oregon State team that is struggling with turnovers and that is also struggling to knock down outside shots. The Beavers have particularly struggled from outside the arc and if their backcourt win this battle, which we don’t believe they can, Oregon State is in big trouble. That’s because the athleticism of the Bulldogs frontcourt causes a definite match-up problem for the Beavers. Fresno State is relishing this opportunity to get an upset win over a Pac Ten team that truly has struggled early this season. That said, with the methodical pace that the Beavers like to play at, even if they do pull out this win, it’s likely to be by a very, very short margin which is why we see such good value here with the talented Bulldogs hungry and getting a handful of points. Play Fresno State plus the points as a 10* Top Play selection.




Players NHL 9* Top Play PHILLY $ line on Dec 23rd
Scott Rickenbach’s NHL 9* (TOP PLAY) Philadelphia Flyers Money Line (+) @ Tampa Bay @ 7:35 ET Wednesday – RATING SYSTEM: Plays range from 6* up to 10*. The 6*, 7*, and 8* picks are the normal, daily play ratings. The 9* and 10* picks are the higher-rated plays and are Top Plays! A 10* Top Play is rare and, of course, is a level above a 9* Top Play!

This line originally opened up with the Flyers available as high as a +115 underdog. However, the action on them has been so significant that they’re actually now favored in a few books. In any event, this play is offering exceptional line value for a play on Philly. We are well aware of the fact that the Flyers have struggled and fallen well short of expectations so far this season. However, the Lightning are certainly on powerhouse either. Before back to back wins at St Louis and New York (the Islanders), Tampa Bay had lost 9 of their last 10 games. One of those losses came after regulation so the Lighting at least earned a point. However, the other eight defeats came by a combined score of 30-9. That’s an average loss of 4-1. It shows you that the Lightning aren’t just losing games they’re getting crushed and we feel Philly is in the perfect spot here to get a huge road win.

When a team is struggling, as the Flyers certainly have been, a long road trip is often the best opportunity for a team to gel and refocus. That said, this is the beginning of six straight games away from home and what we’re hearing from the Flyers players is certainly indicative of how important they feel this first game is. They are still a very, very talented team and there has been a few changes to defensive pairings as well as the lines on offense and we feel this is going to help trigger a huge effort from the Flyers on Wednesday night. Philadelphia was booed off the ice after every period of their 4-1 home loss to Florida on Monday. They also could get a boost from Michael Leighton getting a shot between the pipes tonight. Ray Emery is still out with an injury and Brian Boucher hurt a finger in Monday’s game. When a team has struggled, a goalie change can bring a much-needed spark and Leighton has hungered for this opportunity. Although this season has not gone well so far for Philadelphia, they came into this season having gone 26-16 the last 42 times when coming off of a loss by a margin of at least two goals. After getting clobbered 4-1 Monday and getting booed of their own ice, the Flyers will respond here. Look for them to send the Lightning to a defeat and drop Tampa Bay to 2-9 this season when coming off of a game where they scored four goals or more. After a 4-2 win on Long Island Monday, look for the Lightning to drop to 1-4 in their last 5 home games! Play Philadelphia on the money line as a 9* Top Play selection.





Players NBA Wednesday 10* OVER the total in Sacramento on Dec 23rd
Scott Rickenbach’s NBA 10* (TOP PLAY) OVER the total in Sacramento vs Cleveland @ 10 ET Wednesday – RATING SYSTEM: Plays range from 6* up to 10*. The 6*, 7*, and 8* picks are the normal, daily play ratings. The 9* and 10* picks are the higher-rated plays and are Top Plays! A 10* Top Play is rare and, of course, is a level above a 9* Top Play!

This is definitely a “sandwich spot” for the Cavaliers and that is helping to drive the value here with this play on the over. Note that Cleveland is off of a big upset win at Phoenix on Monday. That Cavs victory handed the Suns their first home loss of the season. On deck for the Cavaliers is a game on Christmas Day in Los Angeles where LeBron James and Company will match-up with Kobe Bryant and Company. That makes this definitely stand out as a “trap game” for the Cavaliers. However, the reason that has us going to the over here rather than playing Sacramento is because – as solid as the Kings offense has been their defense is equally as weak! The Kings just can’t stop anybody and their especially weak on the interior which is where the Cavaliers will likely be able to exploit some match-up edges. As for the Kings offense, they flexed their muscles once again in a huge come from behind win on Monday at Chicago. That was the biggest come from behind win in the NBA in 13 years and Ime Udoka and Tyreke Evans led the way.

As you would anticipate – coming off of a huge come from behind home win and now hosting King James and Company – the Kings are fired up for this game. Sacramento is a solid 10-3 at home this season. However, even if Sacramento jumps out in front early in this game and rides a wave of emotion on their home floor, we’ve seen how James tends to put the Cavaliers on his back and lead them to victory. That is why we see this game simply turning into a high-scoring back and forth affair. The Kings won’t be able to stop a red-hot Cavaliers offense but the Kings will also continue to execute and they could catch the Cavs defense on their heels a bit as the Cavaliers are still celebrating the big win in Phoenix and have such a big game on deck with the Lakers up next on Christmas Day! Note that the Cavs upset win at Phoenix was their third outright win as an underdog this season. In each of the first two cases, their very next game flew over the total.

Note that the Kings are 11-4 to the over when they are a home underdog ranging from 3.5 to 6 points. It’s a role that Sacramento relishes and they tend to bring their best effort in these games and try to run teams right out of Arco Arena. Again, the issue here is that, while the run and gun may work fine for the Kings offense it will also play right into the hands of the Cavaliers offense. The Cavs field goal shooting percentage ranks 4th in the league while the Kings are not far behind in the #7 spot. Only one of the Kings last six home games has stayed under the total and the Kings have scored at least 100 points in 13 of their last 17 games. The Cavs have scored at least 100 points in 15 of their last 23 games and we know they will take advantage of one of the worst defenses in the league tonight! Play OVER the total in Sacramento as a 10* Top Play selection.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-23-09

VEGAS RUNNER

NBA "TRUE STEAM" for WED 12-23-09 :
1.) SA SPURS opened -8.5....Now -11
As I mentioned above, when those books that usually offer the first lines for games opened this one up...they all went ahead and put it out at 8.5...Because when the "very" first book (CRIS) opened their line at 8.5 and got no action from the Wiseguys, everyone else felt safe following their lead...And as of late last night, the most we saw in terms of movement...was a slight 1/2 point adjustment, to 9...Which is where the Vegas books opened the game...And we all know that these books here in Vegas, are usually the LAST to offer a betting line because they don't wany ANY Wiseguy money at all...So as of this morning, we were seeing some books still at 8.5...while others went ahead and offered the game at 9...And that's when things got hectic, and the Outfits sent the books scrambling to get it right...Because until they do, more times than not...these Betting Syndicates are going to punish them for it...And when the books do make that mistake of over-adjusting, the Wiseguys will try and punish them some more by trying to work a "middle"...For this bet, the Outfits went ahead and laid -9...then -9.5...and then went on to even lay -10 on the SPURS...And that forced the adjustment up to 11...Which is where the line is as I write this...VR
LINE PREDICTION : It's obvious to me, after speaking to a couple of runners who work for different Outfits...that the Wiseguys got more than enough money down at the numbers they wanted...And they took a very significant "position" on this game, which was based on "Line Value"...and "Handicapping"...Now usually when this is the case, what we will see next...is an attempt at a "Middle"...Which usually comes in the afternoon, if the Outfits don't think the "public" will help their cause...Other times, when the public bettors are able to help out...the Wiseguys will wait until very close to game-time...I believe that in this spot, the "middle" will come sooner than that, because I can't see the public bettors in any rush to lay double-digits with the Spurs, which would have helped move this line even higher...This is why I won't be surprised at all to see it come back down to 10.5 or even 10 by tip-off...With that said, if we do see this line go up above -11...then you can be 100% sure that the Outfits see this as a HUGE opportunity to get the BEST OF IT...Because a move like that would mean it is based even more on their handicapp, than on a difference of opinion on the line...Usually, when it's only based on the "line"...we will see the number get to where the Outfits think it should be, which usually happens pretty quickly after the lines are offered...And as soon as it's adjusted to that number, they back off for good...So my advice is to continue monitoring this line because most likely, we will see it come back down to 10/10.5...And I still believe there is betting value there...Otherwise, we will see this go up even higher...in which case, believe it or not...I would be even more confident to lay the points...VR

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-23-09

ATS LOCK CLUB AND TOTALS
Totals
3 Units on UNDER 51 Utah/California, 8pmET
Thursday: 3 OVER 72 SMU/Nevada, 8pmET
Friday: No games
Lock Club
3 Units on Cal (-2.5) over Utah, 8pmET
Thurs:3 units on SMU (+12.5) over Nevada, 8pmET
Friday:3 units on Tennessee (-3) over San Diego, 7:30pmET

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-23-09

VR

12 MIL -7.5 (-110) Sportbet vs 711 WAS Analysis: *** NBA 2* PERSONAL PLAY OF THE DAY ***

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-23-09

FREDDY WILLS

Old Dominion -7.5

4-Dime POD

This is one of those games where the public money is flying in on the under dog for no good reason. Sure Charlotte is scoring lots of points and they are winning easily on their way to a 9-1 record. But a close look shows us they are playing lame defenses and although they are #76 in the RPI their competition and strength of schedule is significantly worse than Old Dominion who has faced an opponent with a .591 win% while Charlotte's opponents have a .377 win %. Looking over the defenses they have faced it has not been impressive. The overall strength of schedule is more than 100 point difference.

We looked into it further and we saw a road game last year for Old Dominion (they are home tonight) where they flat out dominated the game +13 rebound margin and held Charlotte to 41.7% shooting. They dominated on the perimeter shooting 50% from three. Overall they only shot 43%, but what made it a 1 point game and win after leading by 1 at half time was turnovers which they committed 18 and FTA they got to the line 6 less times and Charlotte was basically perfect from the charity stripe. Those two factors are going to be different here tonight.

First off Old Dominion a favorite to win their conference got their poor performance play out of the play when they played some top talent teams hence the strength of schedule they have regrouped and should be able to make a push for the conference title. They are #1 in the nation in points allowed, and #50 in FG% defense as well as #18 in 3PT% defense. This is going to be a wake up call for Charlotte who has not faced competition like this except their only loss to Duke by 42 points. At home ODU has a +8.1 rebound margin and that's against strong opponents while they also have a significant FTA advantage as opponents are just getting their 11.4 times. That will really hurt Charlotte's PPG on the road because they rely on 24 attempts. They only shoot 41% on the road and again against a strength of schedule that is poor to say the least. Now they go into Old Dominion where they won't win the rebound margin they most likely will shoot at a lower FG and 3PT% and that turnover battle they won a year ago they will lose here tonight. Old Dominion is +3.8 TO margin at home while Charlotte is -5.5 TO margin on the road and again that's against poor talent. Old Dominion #39 in the RPI is the best team other than Duke that this team has played. Oh also ODU is grabbing 14.4 offensive rebounds at home, when they miss they'll be getting many 2nd chance points.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-23-09

NATIONAL SPORTS SERVICE
4* California -3
4* Houston -10.5
3* North Carolina St./Arizona OVER 132
3* San Antonio -8.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-23-09

Dwayne Bryant

Oklahoma City Thunder at Phoenix Suns - 9:05 p.m. ET Bet: #718 Phoenix Suns -9
Just a tough spot for the Thunder tonight. Oklahoma City is coming off a hard-fought game last night at Staples Center, losing by just three points to the Lakers as 10-point road dogs. So this marks the second road game in as many nights and now they get to travel to Phoenix to take on a Suns team that will run them up and down the court for a full 48 minutes. No doubt in my mind that tired legs will be a factor for the Thunder in the second half of this game. And with Phoenix coming off their first home loss of the season in embarrassing fashion (109-91) to Cleveland, you can expect the Suns to play with a ton of energy and focus tonight. The Suns are 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, and the situation dictates more of the same tonight. I see a 15-point win for the Suns, so lay the points with Phoenix as my NBA Game of the Week play

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-23-09

ASA

3* Utah +3.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-23-09

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

CALGARY FLAMES -175

St. Louis (16-14-5) moved out of last place in the Western Conference with a 3-1 victory at Vancouver on Sunday, then won 7-2 at Edmonton on Monday. That marked the Blues’ best offensive output since a 7-4 victory over Chicago on Jan. 12, 2004.

St. Louis picked up a rare home win last Tuesday, 4-3 over Calgary, as McDonald and Steen snapped respective goal droughts of 14 and 12 games.

However I'm expecting a "letdown" this evening in a building they've traditionally really struggled in.

It's true that St. Louis is 5-1 its last six on the road, but it always struggles against Calgary; 3-14 its last 17 vs. the Flames.

On the other side of the rink: The Flames (20-11-4) are coming off a 5-3 loss to Nashville at the Saddledome on Saturday, their first regulation defeat there since Nov. 19. Calgary has gone 1-3-1 since winning six of eight; I'm expecting a "bounce-back" this evening.

The Flames had a chance to win Saturday with the score tied at 3 after two periods, but allowed two third-period goals. That has been a common theme lately for Calgary, which was outscored 4-1 in the third during the last three games.

Kiprusoff was not in net against the Blues last week, but went 6-1-0 with a 1.84 goals-against average in his last seven home matchups with them.

Keep in mind though that Calgary is 7-1 its last eight vs. St. Louis at the Saddledome.

Bottom line: So with "revenge" on their minds off last Tuesday's loss, I expect a concerted effort from the Flames on both sides of the ice in front of the hometown crowd; look for CALGARY to improve to 4-1 (+2 units) when playing three or more days of rest and for St. Louis to fall to 1-8 (-9 units) after a win by two goals or more in its previous contest.

*7* FLAMES.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-23-09

Tony George

CHARLOTTE +7.5

Charlotte is 9-1 here. They have edges in offense, rebounding, FG %, depth, turnovers, you name it. Getting points here a GIFT.

Play 1 Unit on Charlotte.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-23-09

Evan Altemus

HOUSTON ROCKETS +8.5

Orlando is a big game looming on Christmas, so the effort will be lacking in this game. Plus head coach Stan Van Gundy will likely rest his starters more tonight even if the Magic get a big lead. This is a great opportunity to get plenty of points in a game featuring one team that plays well on the road against another team that isn’t dominant at home. The Magic are only 7-6 against the spread at home, while the Rockets are 10-6 against the spread on the road. Houston almost plays as well on the road as at home. The Rockets did play last night but they are 4-3 ATS this season in back-to-back games this season, so it shouldn’t have too much of an impact. Houston also had a relatively easy home win last night against the Clippers, and they are well rested heading into their road trip. Look for the Rockets to cover the point spread.

3 UNIT SELECTION ROCKETS.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-23-09

Andre Gomes

SAN ANTONIO SPURS -8.5

I decided to release earlier this play because sooner or later this line will jump off the number

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 714 San Antonio Spurs (-8,5) @ -110 The Greek.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-23-09

Greg Shaker

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER +9

I have won my last 9 of 10 NBA Plays and the NBA has been very good all year just as it was last year. I think we have a goodie for tonight with this one. The Thunder are clearly getting NO RESPECT by oddsmakers but are in a very good situation coming off two road losses to the Lakers and the Rockets. They were close affairs though and I think this team is ready to win again. The Thunder would really like to get this Suns Monkey off the Back thing in the books. While they have not beaten Phoenix in 9 straight meetings and perhaps why we have such a large line, they have covered the last 12 at 8-3-1. This team does not know how to quit and their youth is part of why. Yes, they are playing back to back, but the Suns are playing their 3rd game in 5 nights and are not getting any younger. OK City hits their free throws, they play better than average D and that makes them a good road proposition. That is why on large lines like we have tonight, the Thunder are worth the money. They are 4-0 ATS the last 4 times they have played teams with a .600 or higher winning %, they are 4-1 ATS last 5 as a road dog. But most importantly, they don't like to lose and are 36-16 ATS following a loss. BINGO!! I am not a trend guy unless they mean something and these do. I am grabbing these points.