12-30-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-30-09

I.S.B.

20 unit Idaho/B. Green OVER 68
20 unit Idaho -1
20 unit Nebraska/Ariz. UNDER 41

COLLEGE HOOPS
25 unit N.D. -7

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-30-09

C.DAVIS

30 Dime --- Nebraska-Arizona UNDER

15 Dime --- Bowling Green-Idaho OVER

ARIZONA/NEBRASKA UNDER --- Two games today, both point spreads near a pick 'em. That tells me Vegas knows both games should be really competitive, making it even tougher to predict which team will catch more breaks to get the SU win. Today is NOT a day for sides, but totals. Arizona is not going to line up and run all over Nebraska's defense while Nebraska simply doesn't have the offense to move the ball on Arizona's defense. It's going to come down to field goals, turnovers, and field position, and that tells me the UNDER is the right play.

This total might seem low and the immediate, knee-jerk reaction is going to be to play the OVER. If you'll remember back to the Big 12 Championship game, my big total play was on the UNDER (43) between Texas and Nebraska. Final score: 13-12. Now, I'm not saying tonight's final score will be that low, but you simply can't underestimate Nebraska's blackshirt defense. They've allowed just 11 PPG on the season, and the Huskers haven't allowed more than one offensive TD to an opponent just once since a 31-10 loss to Texas Tech back in October. Needless to say, this defense is clicking on all cylinders and it's going to take more than what Arizona has to offer in order for me to expect more than 17 points this evening.

As for Nebraska... for as good as their defense is, their offense is equally as bad. Zac Lee is a train wreck with his passing game, and it's no secret the Huskers want to run the ball 40 or more times per game... and there's no doubt they'll do that here again tonight. They want to give Arizona a healthy dose of Roy Helu and Rex Burkhead, because the last time Lee took the field, he completed just 6 of 19 passes and was picked off three times. The less they have to put the ball in the air, the less of a chance they have to turn the ball over. Lots of running burns the clock, and as the clock ticks away we get closer and closer to the UNDER. I'm expecting something like a 17-14 or 16-13 type finish, putting us well under the posted total tonight.

BOWLING GREEN/IDAHO OVER --- Let's be honest... no one knows who's going to win this game, and since the line is currently -1 at the time of this writing, you're basically picking the winner if you play the spread. Can you honestly look at either one of these two teams and tell me one is clearly better than the other? Oh sure, we can guess all day long, but unless someone has absolute inside information from one of these locker rooms that tells us one team is more excited about this game than the other, it's like flipping a coin. Neither team plays in a great conference, neither team plays defense, both teams can pass the ball with the best of them, and neither team really excites me in the run game. I guess if you put a gun to my head and asked me to pick a side I'd play Idaho because they're basically playing a home game while Bowling Green is traveling more than halfway across the country.

So what do we know and how can we win money on this game? Easy... play the OVER. Much like the Georgia/Texas A&M game, this contest offers very little in the way of defense, but features two of the better passing games in the country. Both Bowling Green and Idaho allow over 400 yards of offense per game, and what's more ironic is that each team's offensive strength is the other team's defensive weakness. For instance, Idaho can actually run the ball quite well (they throw it well too), and Bowling Green allows nearly as many yards on the ground as they do through the air. So I think it's safe to say the Vandals are going to be able to move the ball on the ground at will.

Meanwhile, Bowling Green possesses one of the most powerful passing games in the country, with QB Tyler Sheehan and WR Freddie Barnes combining for more TD passes together than any other QB/WR tandem in the country. BG, as a whole, passes for over 300 yards per game while the Vandals allow over 270 YPG through the air. Want a track meet? Watch this bowl game. You won't be disappointed. I realize the total is exceptionally high, but that tells me Vegas knows it's going to be high-scoring and they're trying to scare you into playing the UNDER because much of the money came in early on the OVER. That's what you should be doing too.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-30-09

nsa #5
20* CFB Arizona over 40.5(100 Dime BIG TICKET Play)
20* CFB Idaho -1(100 Dime BIG TICKET Play)
20* NBA Sacramento -2(100 Dime BIG TICKET Play)
10* CBB UAB +2
10* NBA Atlanta under 192.5
10* CBB Temple -13.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-30-09

ATS Lock Club

5* Idaho

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-30-09

Northcoast

Top Opinion---Idaho
1* Marq------Over Idaho
REg Opinion--Neb
1* Marq-----Under Neb

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-30-09

Tom Stryker

3* Idaho

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-30-09

Executive

250 Idaho
250 Neb
250 Af Thurs

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-30-09

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

Nebraska/Arizona Under

Towson St

Boston Bruins

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-30-09

Seabass

100* Idaho

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-30-09

redd
40 dimes Idaho
20 dimes Arizona

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-30-09

Savannah Sports

Todays Selections

NCAA Bowl Games

3 (***) Nebraska -2.5

2 (**) Bowling Green +1

Professional Plays
Eric Degarde

Todays Selections

NBA Basketball

2 (**) Indiana Over 208

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-30-09

Kb hoops
5* Illinois -8 **POD**
4* Virginia -2.5
4* Cincinnati -1.5
3* Arizona +3 (CFB)
3* Phoenix Suns -4

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-30-09

vegas runner - double dimes in cbb- virginia,davidson.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-30-09

B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G

6* W ido w W iseg uy NBA "S TE AL" of the Week on Milwaukee Bucks +10.5(-109 at 5dimes)

The Bucks catching double-digit points Wednesday is an absolute gift from the odds makers. The Bucks may be just 3-10 in road games this season, but they've gone 7-6 ATS and are losing by an average of only 4.7 points/game away from home. Orlando is 12-3 at home this season, but they are winning by an average of 8.6 points/game so you can see why the Bucks are showing so much value here against the spread. The Bucks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Magic are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Central opponents. Take Milwaukee and the points.



5* W iseg uy Holiday Bowl "T ota l" B LOWO UT on Nebraska/Arizona OVER 40.5(-110 at 5dimes)

This is a very low total here tonight because the odds makers are putting too much stock in these defenses, and not giving enough credit to their offenses. Arizona scores 29.7 points/game this season, while Nebraska is putting up 24.5 points/game. Both teams should have no problem scoring at least 3 touchdowns apiece to get the OVER here. Take the OVER 40.5 points



4* on Temple -12(-110 at 5dimes)

Temple is one of the best teams in the country that nobody knows about. The Owls have made their way into the Top-25 after starting the season 10-2 and winning games against Villanova and Seton Hall. Now they face a 2-7 Northern Illinois team that has lost 5 of their last 6 games. They have lost 3 of their last 4 by double-digits. Northern Illinois is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) on Wednesday games over the last 3 seasons. Temple is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) as a road favorite or pick over the last 3 seasons. Take Temple and lay the points.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-30-09

Randall The Handle 12/30/09

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Colorado +1.10 over OTTAWA (REG) Pinnacle
The Av’s are warming up again after losing 10 of 13 and have now won seven of its last 10 games. They’ve also played the sixth most difficult schedule in the league compared to the Senators 25th toughest according to the Sagarin ratings. The Av’s have scored four goals or more in three of its last four games and if not for a late game meltdown against the Ducks they’d have four wins in a row, as they lead 2-0 going to the third. The Sens are playing good too. However, this is a game that could be nothing but trouble for them. They rarely see the Av’s and after consecutive games against Boston, Pittsburgh, Buffalo and Montreal, all Rivalry games, we could definitely see them take a night off, especially with the Islanders coming in for a New Year’s Eve game tomorrow. Also consider that they’ve won its last two without Alfredsson and Spezza and will play again without them. This is a great spot for the visitor to catch the Sens at half speed and even if Ottawa plays its best, the Av’s still have a great shot. Play: Colorado +1.10 (Risking 2 units).

Los Angeles +1.55 over CALGARY (REG) Pinnacle
The Kings are in a mini funk at the moment but this team works too hard to take it too seriously and it’s only a matter of time before they get back on track. At this price and against the reeling Flames, the Kings are most definitely worthy of some strong consideration here. In fact, Calgary has just two lousy wins over its last eight games and they’re struggling miserably to score goals. They also have the Oilers on deck tomorrow night in what is becoming a traditional New Year’s Eve match-up. Interestingly enough, the home teams went 6-1 last New Year’s Eve but the day before, on the 30th, the home teams lost six of eight games played and again, Calgary will host the Oilers tomorrow. Nice spot and a definite overlay on the visitor. Play: Los Angeles +1.55 (Risking 2 units).

Montreal +1.01 over TAMPA BAY Pinnacle
The Canadiens are getting some healthy bodies back. One game after Brian Gionta returned, Roman Hamrlik will get back into the lineup tonight and that most certainly helps. Andrei Markov has been back for a few games now and he continues to prove that he’s as valuable a defenseman as any in the league. The Canadiens will now send out two decent lines with Cammalleri, Plekanec and Andrei Kosyn on the first line and Pouliot, Gomez, and Gionta on the second. Montreal is coming off a loss in Ottawa but probably deserved a better fate and didn’t even get a single chance on the power-play. Montreal is the leagues #1 ranked power-play unit. It would also appear that Carey Price will get the call in net after being the back-up for five games and one has to figure that he’ll be pretty jacked up to get back in there. The Bolts are warm for sure with four wins in five games and they have a terrific record against the Habs. In fact, they’ve picked up points in six straight vs Montreal with four wins and two OT losses. However, the puck line says Montreal, as the Lightning are -½ +1.50 and the puck line is something you should never ignore. Books like the Habs and that’s good information. Play: Montreal +1.01 (Risking 2 units).