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Everybody's on the Jets Right?? Wrong, not me. Obviously what did we see last week when these same two teams played each other. The Jets had to "win to get in". The Bengals were already in. The Jets were playing in front of a raucous home crowd. The Bengals were like let's get this over with. I've never seen a team lay down so bad. It was almost like they wanted tp play the Jets again. And why not? They get a rookie QB in their own house going against Carson Palmer. That's a pretty big mismatch if you ask me, and I believe it's the mismatch that the Bengals wanted all along. Sure the Jets can run the ball. They are very good at it too. The Bengals are also very good at with Cedric Benson. Bengals know they can run it against the Jets. See here is the thing that some people might be missing here. Rex Ryan was a DC with the Ravens and they used to play the Bengals all the time and vice versa so there will be no surprises on either side of the ball. The Bengals are familiar with every blitz package and coverage that Ryan can throw at them. Palmer has seen it all. The Bengals threw nothing at Sanchez last week and even though Ryan may know what's coming he isn't playing QB. The Bengals will fore the Jets into a one dimensional offense, at which they d excel. But this is the playoffs and you're not going to convince me that a rookie SoCall QB playing in the snow and cold of Cinncy is gonna beat the Bengals in the playoffs.
Sean Michaels Saturday's Play 50 Dime Release - Cincinnati
As you know from watching the video on the subject on my homepage, this is a game with a price that demands buying down the half-point on Cincinnati if your price is -3 or 3 1/2. Now here in Vegas, it's pretty easy to get the Bengals at -2 1/2, and if that's the case with you as well, there's no need to buy down. But if your man or sportsbook is offering either 3 or 3 1/2, go ahead and buy down the hook.
Karl Garrett 50 DIMER - CINCINNATI BENGALS.....10 DIMERS - PHILADELPHIA EAGLES, & KENTUCKY WILDCATS 50 DIMER - CINCINNATI BENGALS
Don't be fooled by the Jets 37-0 season finale last week over this Bengals team, New York will NOT be playing the same Bengals team they just humiliated to punch their playoff ticket.
Believe me, Marvin Lewis and his staff wanted no parts of the Houston Texans in this game, and that would have been the case had Cincy bested New York.
In essence, the Jets last 2 wins came against teams that had nothing to play for. Just keep the Jets dismal 10-7 home loss to Atlanta at the Meadowlands fresh in your minds. That is the real Jets team. Oh sure, New York may own a staunch defense, but at some point Mark Sanchez, that is ROOKIE Mark Sanchez is going to have to make a few plays, and that ain't gonna happen in his 1st playoff game of the road.
Cincy has waited since the end of the 2005 season to be back in the playoffs, and that was the game in which Carson Palmer blew out his knee in the first series. This go'round will be different.
The Bengals did not do a good job this year when favored, I will grant you that, but this line is for all intents and purposes a pick'em game, and there is no way I feel the home team is going to get beat today.
Lay the small impost.
10 DIMER - PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
This one is a "gut"play, as I will grant you the fact that Dallas could be the hottest NFC team right now, but the playoffs are a different beast altogether, and Dallas has not won a postseason game since 1996.
Philadelphia took the # 6 seed in last year's playoffs all the way to the NFC Title Game, and while I don't see them going that deep this postseason, they at least know what it takes to advance, and after 2 season losses to the Cowboys, they will pull out all the stops to avoid the hat trick.
I still think Dallas wins this game, but my bucks are on the Eagles to get the spread win.
Take the Birds plus the points as this one goes down to the bitter end.
10 DIMER - KENTUCKY WILDCATS
Georgia is still savoring their upset win over Georgia Tech, but don't expect the Bulldogs to once again waltz into the Rupp Arena and pull off another upset win, as Kentucky just has too many horses for this still-learning Bulldogs bunch.
Georgia did spring the upset win at Kentucky last season, beating the Wildcats as the 17 1/2-point underdog!
Not going to happen today.
The Wildcats are 11-0 straight up at home, and they have been able to cover their last pair, and 5 of their last 7 on line.
The Bulldogs have not been able to get any traction on the road, going 1-4 against the spread away from home thus far.
double-dime bet 104 DAL -2.5 (-110) BetUS vs 103 PHI
Analysis: NFL: Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys - Cowboys -3.5 -110 | Unit Value: 2
Game Date: 1/9/2010
Note: A lot of times on these re-matchups like this the favor is returned but the Cowboys are just playing too well right now, they have the homefield advantage, and the Eagles are suffering from some key injuries along the offensive line that are going to make it hard for their offense to go. In addition, unlike previous years, the Eagles are not stopping the run and that is paramount in these big games. I do not expect Dallas to win this one by a large amount as Philly will come to play, but I do see at least a comfortable win to get this spread. This line is on the move downward and I wish I could get the -3 but I am going to go ahead and get it now.
triple-dime bet 530 Mississippi -2.5 (-110) BetUS vs 529 Miss. St
Analysis: NCAAB: Mississippi State Bulldogs at Mississippi Rebels - Ole Miss -2.5 (Heavy Hitter) -110 | Unit Value: 3
Game Date: 1/9/2010
Note: Many of you already know that I am close to this situation. Nobody will be watching the NFL Playoffs here today, they will be at the game, clamouring for tickets. Many will be remembering the final regular season football game where the Bulldogs prevailed. But this is not about the crowd. This is about the fact that Ole Miss is the better team. They suffered through major injuries last year but this year they are healthy and they are playing well. Nobody has come here to Oxford and beat them yet and not many have even come close. The do run a fast pace but unlike most teams that do, they take care of the ball. They also have a very strong bench and they will lose that often to wear down the Dogs. I am going to have to lay these small points here and not even close to the reason that I am a Rebel Fan.
double-dime bet 542 Va. Commonwealth -15.0 (-110) BetUS vs 541 Delaware
Analysis: NCAAB: Delaware Blue Hens at VCU Rams - VCU -15 -110 | Unit Value: 2
Game Date: 1/9/2010
Note: I am not a big proponent is laying these large numbers but I will with this one. VCU has lost 2 CAA conference games in a row and is just 1-3 overall. They are a very good team and they need a win badly. they should get it here with Delaware who is totally overmatched in every way today.
double-dime bet 566 New Mexico -5.5 (-110) BetUS vs 565 UNLV
Analysis: NCAAB: UNLV Runnin' Rebels at New Mexico Lobos - New Mexico -5.5 -110 | Unit Value: 2
Game Date: 1/9/2010
Note: I surely do hate playing against the Rebels very often as they play a lot of people and get the job done in the second half. But THE PIT is one of the toughest places to play in this country and that alone gives us the 2nd half advantage. New Mex is 9-0 here and they have beat some pretty darn good teams at this court. Rebounding and Turnovers will be the key for this one and we have the advantage in both categories. Both teams are off a loss so whatever advantage UNLV would have is gone. Lay the points.
triple-dime bet 646 Idaho 0.0 (-110) BetUS vs 645 LouiSIAna Tech
Analysis: NCAAB: LouiSIAna Tech Bulldogs at Idaho Vandals - Idaho Pick -110 (Best Bet) | Unit Value: 3
Game Date: 1/9/2010
Note: La Tech is a very good basketball team and winners of 7 straight games while playing good competition. So why has oddsmakers made this a pick game? Because they know that the Vandals play well at this court. At 1-1 in the conference they also need a win here. They can compete on the boards with the Bulldogs and they have been very good shooting at these nets, hitting 50% this year. The Bench is going to be the biggest factor for this contest and Idaho has more people they can put on the court here in the mountains. I see a strong 2nd half performance by our team this evening and a win. That win might be a close one but with the Vandals good free throw shooting, they should be able to close it out. I actually can see this number going up so I would go ahead and get it now.
double-dime bet 102 CIN -2.5 (-110) Sportbet vs 101 NYJ
Analysis:
I really see great value with the Bengals on Saturay--as we are getting them at UNDER the key number of 3....due to LAST WEEKS MEANINGLESS game- that saw the Jets hammer Cincy AT NEW YORK 37-0. Cincy could have cared less & IMO wanted to play the Jets in the playoffs instead of the Texans--and if Cincy would have beaten the Jets last weekend--thats who they would be playing for the Wild Card game. NY Jets looked like world beaters vs this Cincy team who clearly could have cared less. I am ALL OVER fading the Rookie QB Sanchez who has been flat out STRUGGLING the 2nd half of the season. Cincy has a very stout run game and defense too & I fully expect a WHOLE DIFFERENT Bengals team on Saturday AT HOME and behind a veteran QB Carson Palmer. Just MUCH MORE experience at the ever important QB spot for us in this matchup, and I think that plays a hu‚ge part. Cincy will definitely stuff the box and force Sanchez to beat them & I just DO NOT see that happening. Lay the short number with the Bengals here guys.
ASA's 4-Star play on: OVER Eagles vs. Cowboys - Jan 8
ASA4-Star play on: OVER 45 Dallas vs. Philadelphia - Saturday, January 9 – 4:30 PM CST (1 NFL picks this weekend - next update Friday, Jan 15th at 4:00 pm CST)
Dallas and Philadelphia meet in back-to-back games after Dallas’ 24-0 victory last weekend. The loss really took Philly off of their high horse. They entered the game on the momentum of six straight victories, averaging 31.2 points per game in that span. But instead of earning a first-round bye, the Eagles booked a return trip to Dallas with an uncharacteristic performance, gaining only 228 yards to the Cowboys’ 474. "It’s kind of embarrassing," Eagles tight end Brent Celek said. "I can’t wait to play these guys again. After what they did to us, I want to come back here. I wouldn’t want to go anywhere else." This will be a high energy game and we expect some fireworks. Easy ‘over.’
In last week’s game, both teams missed their share of opportunities. Both Dallas and Philly had their own red zone turnover and Philly ‘just missed’ on a number of big plays. By halftime, Dallas owned a 17-0 lead and neither team was aggressive in the 2nd half. The Cowboys coasted to the easy victory and it was apparent that Philly conceded their win as their main goal was to keep their starters healthy for next week.
The Eagles are the main catalyst for this game finishing ‘over’ the total. They have a trio of big play receivers led by DeSean Jackson that can change the game whenever they touch the ball. Jackson has 12 touchdowns (9 receiving, 2 returns, 1 rushing) with 1167 receiving yards and 18.5 yards per reception. They love to pass the ball and it shows, with a full-season 60-40 pass-run ratio.
Dallas’ Tony Romo ended his season quite well. In his last six games, he has passed for 310 ypg with an 11/2 ratio. The Cowboys boast a 56-44 pass/run ratio and rank 6th in the NFL in passing yards and 2nd in the NFL in total yards. Philly, despite their poor performance on Sunday, still ranks 11th in total yards and 5th in scoring.
The Philly ‘over’ is 6-1 in Eagles last 7 games following a S.U. loss and 20-6 in last 26 games as an underdog. The average total in the past four meetings between the two is 47 points. The rivalry grows with another playoff match-up between these two with this being the first playoff game in Dallas’ new Cowboy stadium. Expect Fireworks and for this game easily to finish ‘over’ the total.
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