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Re: 1-25-10
MIKE HOOK
CBB Total Mon, 01/25/10 - 11:00 PM ƒŠ
double-dime bet 727 Boise St. / 728 Idaho Over 145.0 BetUS
Analysis: First off i want to talk about this entire CBB card. What a wacky Monday this has turned out to be, as there was line movement in games that i clearly didn't expect. How else to describe today other than the line movement in the PENN-ST. JOES game. You got huge money on St. Joe's, yet this line has moved a ton in favor of the team with 1 win on the entire season. Too bad, because i did have a lean to PENN at +7, and that would have been my free play.
Moving forward, i also liked Boise St today, but again, this line has severely been bet down. I care so much about each of my clients, that the last thing i'm going to do is to back a play that i know in my heart has lost a ton of value. So we will do the prudent thing here tonight on a day that's been very difficult to cap. I can almost all but guarantee you that late tonight and tomorrow people are going to be wishing they never bet CBB today because they are going to get burned. There are truly that many traps out there today.
We are backing the OVER 145 tonight for a few reasons. I already mentioned that i liked Boise St. in this game tonight, and the biggest reason why is because of their style of play. This Boise St. team is in every game they play. They only struggle in the final minutes of games, as i've talked about in past weeks. But this team is ultra talented, as they return nearly everyone from last years team that tasted some success. This is as close to a must win as there could be for Boise St, and i think we will see them do what they do best tonight. They are going to look to push the tempo as much as possible, and i actually think Idaho will end up running with them. This is a rivalry game for BOTH schools, and i think nerves will be high for each team. Because of that, i believe that this pace will be fast.
If you think about how much this SIDE has dropped in favor of Boise St, you would think this total would only RISE with it. But average bettors aren't that smart, as they only focus on their 1st level of thinking. If you dig a bit deeper, you will see this OVER is LOADED with value simply based off the fact that this line is dropping so much to begin with. Clearly this is a STRONG indication that Boise St. is going to be a game opponent. With a close game all but guaranteed to take place tonight, i like the fact that free throws late in a close game are only going to help us. This is exactly the type of game that can see 12-15 points take place in the final mižnute.
Both defenses are allowing opponents to shoot better than 50% from the field during league play. That's absurd, and thats the biggest reason neither team has tasted much success this year. Clearly this late in the season, both teams are flawed on defense. That's just not going to change overnight. I also like that BOTH teams start 2 true point guards at each guard position. I believe this will only help both teams to score tonight early and often. Boise St. will also hold an advantage in the rebounding department, so i can see some easy points being scored thanks to the rebounding edge for the Broncos. Overall, i just feel this game sets up perfectly for Boise St. With that being said, the most logical wager is to back this OVER. With the numbers backing up this OVER play, as well as specific situationals, this IS the right play.
Lastly, for me to play a TOTAL takes alot of work. That means i've capped this game even more than i typically do sides. I'm very confident that this IS the very best bet on the entire card. That's why this is a DOUBLE STAR release. Let's keep up the very solid CBB run, and cash this OVER 145 tonight between Idaho and Boise St. Thanks as always for all of your support. I greatly appreciate it, and it's why i work so hard to continue to find VALUE daily. As always, any additional plays can be found in my daily thread in the forums. Let's have a great night!
MIKE HOOK
CBB Total Mon, 01/25/10 - 11:00 PM ƒŠ
double-dime bet 727 Boise St. / 728 Idaho Over 145.0 BetUS
Analysis: First off i want to talk about this entire CBB card. What a wacky Monday this has turned out to be, as there was line movement in games that i clearly didn't expect. How else to describe today other than the line movement in the PENN-ST. JOES game. You got huge money on St. Joe's, yet this line has moved a ton in favor of the team with 1 win on the entire season. Too bad, because i did have a lean to PENN at +7, and that would have been my free play.
Moving forward, i also liked Boise St today, but again, this line has severely been bet down. I care so much about each of my clients, that the last thing i'm going to do is to back a play that i know in my heart has lost a ton of value. So we will do the prudent thing here tonight on a day that's been very difficult to cap. I can almost all but guarantee you that late tonight and tomorrow people are going to be wishing they never bet CBB today because they are going to get burned. There are truly that many traps out there today.
We are backing the OVER 145 tonight for a few reasons. I already mentioned that i liked Boise St. in this game tonight, and the biggest reason why is because of their style of play. This Boise St. team is in every game they play. They only struggle in the final minutes of games, as i've talked about in past weeks. But this team is ultra talented, as they return nearly everyone from last years team that tasted some success. This is as close to a must win as there could be for Boise St, and i think we will see them do what they do best tonight. They are going to look to push the tempo as much as possible, and i actually think Idaho will end up running with them. This is a rivalry game for BOTH schools, and i think nerves will be high for each team. Because of that, i believe that this pace will be fast.
If you think about how much this SIDE has dropped in favor of Boise St, you would think this total would only RISE with it. But average bettors aren't that smart, as they only focus on their 1st level of thinking. If you dig a bit deeper, you will see this OVER is LOADED with value simply based off the fact that this line is dropping so much to begin with. Clearly this is a STRONG indication that Boise St. is going to be a game opponent. With a close game all but guaranteed to take place tonight, i like the fact that free throws late in a close game are only going to help us. This is exactly the type of game that can see 12-15 points take place in the final mižnute.
Both defenses are allowing opponents to shoot better than 50% from the field during league play. That's absurd, and thats the biggest reason neither team has tasted much success this year. Clearly this late in the season, both teams are flawed on defense. That's just not going to change overnight. I also like that BOTH teams start 2 true point guards at each guard position. I believe this will only help both teams to score tonight early and often. Boise St. will also hold an advantage in the rebounding department, so i can see some easy points being scored thanks to the rebounding edge for the Broncos. Overall, i just feel this game sets up perfectly for Boise St. With that being said, the most logical wager is to back this OVER. With the numbers backing up this OVER play, as well as specific situationals, this IS the right play.
Lastly, for me to play a TOTAL takes alot of work. That means i've capped this game even more than i typically do sides. I'm very confident that this IS the very best bet on the entire card. That's why this is a DOUBLE STAR release. Let's keep up the very solid CBB run, and cash this OVER 145 tonight between Idaho and Boise St. Thanks as always for all of your support. I greatly appreciate it, and it's why i work so hard to continue to find VALUE daily. As always, any additional plays can be found in my daily thread in the forums. Let's have a great night!
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