1-26-10

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section (regular or premium)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-26-10

ST BERNADINE SPORTS
ANDREW BUCCIARELLI

Montreal Canadiens (+108) at Florida Panthers (-117) - (1*)
This is the third of four meetings between the teams. They last met on Jan. 7, when Jaroslav Halak stopped all 38 shots he faced in Montreal's 2-0 victory at the Bell Centre. Both teams are in a dogfight for a playoff spot and are separated by just two points in the Eastern Conference standings. Only three points separate sixth place from 13th place. Vokoun has three shutouts in his last eight games for the Panthers.
Take FLORIDA.

LA Kings (-109) at Toronto Maple Leafs (+101) - (2**)
The Leafs and Kings will meet for the first and only time this season. The Kings will be looking for their first win in Toronto since Nov. 12, 2002 -- a 4-3 overtime victory. The Leafs scored a 3-1 victory over the Kings in the only meeting last season, scoring three times in the third period while receiving a 32-save performance by Vesa Toskala. The Kings are riding a two-game winning streak, including a 3-2 victory over the Detroit Red Wings on Saturday. The Leafs, meanwhile, are probably happy to be returning home after finishing 0-3-0 during a road swing against Southeast Division foes.
Take LOS ANGELES.

Anaheim Ducks (+106) at Atlanta Thrashers (-115) - (1*)
This is the only meeting this season. This is the second game of a six-game road trip that began with a 4-3 shootout victory against St. Louis on Saturday. Anaheim overcame a 3-0 deficit in the third period, and defenseman James Wisniewski scored the game-deciding shootout goal in the seventh round, giving the Ducks their eighth victory in 11 games. It was the first career shootout attempt for Wisniewski. Over the last five seasons (including 2009-10), the Ducks have gone 102-55-18 in the second half of the season.
Take ANAHEIM.

Pheonix Coyotes (+144) at Detroit Red Wings (-156) - (2**)
This is the fourth and final meeting between the Western Conference foes. Detroit has taken two of three in the series and the only loss came in overtime. The Red Wings have been nipping at the heels of the No. 8 spot in the West for weeks now, and a win tonight would finally put them over that hump and into a playoff spot. For Phoenix, Daniel Winnik (upper body) is questionable for tonight's game. Defenseman Kurt Sauer (upper body) is out. Scottie Upshall (loser) tried to pick up my girlfriend at a bar last season while they visited the Pens. She shut him down hard haha!!! Now we all get to make money off him and his goon squads lack of performance. Detroit shuts down Pheonix.
Take DETROIT

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-26-10

ROBERT FERRINGO

*Remember...to be a winner you need to get the best number

1 1/2 Kentucky (-7)
2 1/2 Boston College (+3)
1 1/2 West Virginia (-16.5)

1 Baylor (-2)
1/2 Air Force (+19)
1/2 North Carolina (-1)

1 1/2 Kentucky (-2) /Boston College (+8)
1 Minnesota (-7) /West Virginia (-11.5)
1/2 Boston College (+8) /Maryland (-3)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-26-10

MTI

4* Lakers/Wizards under 199
4* Timberwolves +6.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-26-10

Patron

10K Clemson CBB tonight

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-26-10

Special K

5* Northwestern +12.5
5* Bobcats/Suns over 209

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-26-10

Malinsky

4* MILWAUKEE over DALLAS

November 10th was a long time ago. The NFL was in mid-season, the
World Series had barely ended, and College Football was entering the
home stretch. Yet that is how far back we have to go to find the last
time that the Dallas Mavericks won at home by more than tonight?s
pointspread, a span of 16 games. But if you are 29-15, and just won a
road game by 50, the markets force you into a high line range again,
despite the awkward setting of only having one day for turnaround
time after five straight on the road, and this being the 7th straight
court change in an unusual scheduling stretch that will 11 straight
changes before it ends.

Once again we have one of those mathematical conundrums that can make
power ratings a false prophet. Because of that veteran cast the
Mavericks play with a lot of poises down the stretch in close games,
and it brings some major edges in close games. That, in turn, helps
to get them to 29-15 ? they are 8-2 SU in games that were decided by
two points or less at the end of regulation. But when it comes to
getting margins they are ?old? instead of ?experienced?, and that
lack of depth comes into play. They are tied for fourth in the league
in wins despite not being all that special in any category (#10 on
our offensive charts, #7 defense and #18 in rebounding), which tells
us that it is all about gutting out wins, and not that they are
dominating anyone. Now they face the distraction of heading to
Phoenix for a nationally televised showdown on Thursday night, and
while the savvy may be there to gut out another win, a la the 115-113
O.T. escape at Milwaukee earlier, the spark to get a margin will not
be there.

The Bucks bring a much different focus tonight. They have been off
since whipping Minnesota by 33 on Saturday, the first time in nearly
three weeks that they had back-to-back days off. That matters for a
team that had to adjust on the fly when Michael Redd was injured in
the midst of a long West Coast swing that forced them into six games
in nine nights. Now there has been an opportunity to tweak what has
been a decent chemistry since their return home (3-0 ATS with a pair
of outright wins), and with Carlos Delfino relishing his newly found
minutes in the rotation (22 points or more three times in the last
five games), they bring some matchup issues for a favorite that has
had little time to put together a scouting report for their new look.

4* #533 KENTUCKY/SOUTH CAROLINA Under

It has been a long time since we have ever charted a team as reliant
on a single player offensively as South Carolina is with Devan Downey
this season. Having lost Mike Holmes and Dominique Archie before
conference play started the Gamecocks simply do not have any other
answers, and it shows in a remarkable imbalance ? Downey is averaging
31.6 ppg through five league games, with no one else in double
figures. And it is creating problems for the markets to make the
proper adjustments ? in a 4-1 run to the Under through those games,
South Carolina has finished 66.5 points below the projections, or
13.3 per game.

It is not just a case of not having anywhere else to look for points,
but the fact that having such a limited supporting cast means that
there are very few quick offensive trips. Combined with a lack of
depth, it has Darrin Horn trying to keep the pace as slow as
possible, which we saw in those road losses of 66-58 at Mississippi
and 58-56 at Florida last week, when Downey scored 61 of the 113
points. And that is absolutely what he does here, taking each
possession late into the shot clock before setting up Downey to go
one-on-one to either find a shot or create one for someone else. That
sets this up for a much slower tempo than is being projected, and
with Sam Muldrow (63 blocked shots) becoming a legit defensive
presence, the Gamecocks are also capable of getting some stops
against a Kentucky offense that loves the open court, but often loses
patience when forced to run sets.

John Calipari has had his team practicing some zone defenses the last
two days in order to slow Downey?s penetration, and to force him to
shoot over much taller players. And when he does find a lane to get
to the basket, he runs into 6-11 DeMarcus Cousins and 6-9 Patrick
Patterson, which means few easy finishes. The Wildcats are allowing
38.7 percent through four SEC games, and in their last non-conference
outing held Louisville to 32.2.

Kentucky is not going to be able to force the tempo here ? it is not
easy to do in front of a hostile crowd, and Downey is too strong with
the ball. That settles this into a slower affair than is being called
for, and with both teams faring poorly at the FT line (Kentucky 68.4
percent and SC 63.8), the offensive efficiency to reach this plateau
will not be there.

4* PRO BOWL Under

Any time that the oddsmakers have to deal with a new and unique situation it can open the door for a mistake to be made, and that is the case here. With the game being moved up to a week ahead of the Super Bowl it changes the circumstances by much more than the marketplace is appreciating based on this line, and we have excellent value to step in.The first key is that the Super Bowl players are obviously taken out of proceedings, and that could rarely impact a Total more than this year, with eight offensive players that had been chosen for this game sitting out, including the two best QB’s in the NFL this season in Peyton Manning and Drew Brees. But that is only the beginning of the QB issues, with Tom Brady, Philip Rivers and Brett Favre also sitting out. It leaves the lackluster rotations of Matt Schaub, Vince Young and David Garrard for the AFC and Aaron Rodgers, Donovan McNabb and Tony Romo for the NFC. A genuine case could be made that the five missing QB’s were the five most effective this fall, and that Young and Garrard represent the lowest tier that has earned this honor in many years.It is not just the QB rotation that brings the issues on offense – also missing are playmakers Larry Fitzgerald, Wes Welker and Steven Jackson, and blockers Jake Long and Andre Gurode. And note that while the usual Pro Bowl scheduling has the players from the Super Bowl teams having only a minor impact as they come in distracted and physically worn down, that role now gets assumed by the losers of the conference championship game. There are more Vikings and Jets on these offensive rosters than on defense, and do you think that Adrian Peterson or Sidney Rice are going to bring their “A” game?We are going to see the usual loose atmosphere here, and the defenses will not bring a high level of intensity. But that suits our purposes fine – with so many key playmakers missing this Total becomes a mountain to overcome, and at the current 58.5 it basically forces eight TD’s to be score for us to have any jeopardy – seven TD’s and three FG’s will not cut it. Finding eight TD’s from these reduced rosters is not easy.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-26-10

A.REDD!!!!

Tuesday's Card
20-Dime - Air Force
10-Dime - Timberwolves

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-26-10

Teddy Covers

Bobcats

Maryland
Kansas St
Air Force

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-26-10

KEVIN KINGMAKER

7* West Virginia/DePaul OVER 123

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-26-10

DOC SPORTS NBA

4-Unit Play #503 Take Minnesota +6 ½ Over New York

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-26-10

Wunderdog

Game: New Jersey at Ottawa (7:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total OVER 5 -130

The Devils have been consistently good on the road, except for their last road trip, but are back in charge winning the opener on this three-game trip. The Senators have been a hot team winning their last six, scoring 3.3 goals per game in the process. This is a team that is 4-1-1 in their last six to the OVER off two days rest. And with a hot offense right now, they will be making a contribution on the offensive end to push this one OVER. The Devils have managed to push across 3 or more 56% of the time on the road this season, putting this low total in jeopardy. I will play this one to go OVER the total.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-26-10

Marc Lawrence | NBA-CBB Sides

3* 501 LAL -8.0 vs 502 WAS

3* 522 Dayton -5.0 vs 521 Rhode Island

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-26-10

alatex
15* marquette over 138.5
k st +2
uab under 131.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-26-10

KING CREOLE

NBA Total Tue, 01/26/10 - 10:05 PM ƒŠ

double-dime bet 509 GSW / 510 SAC Under 220.0 Bodog
Analysis: 10:00pm ET / Golden State Warriors @ Sacramento Kings
2** BEST BET on: UNDER the TOTAL

The OU line's way too HIGH in this battle between the dregs of the Pacific Division. Particularly when you factor in the major injury issues for each team. And besides, so far in the 2009/2010 season..... PACIFIC DIVISION games in which the host is favored by < 10 points have gone 1-5 O/U.

Sacramento returns home from a l-o-n-g road trip with their tails between their legs. The KINGS lost EVERY SINGLE game on that 6-game trip... and are actually 0-7 SU in their last 7 games overall. Sharp players already know that you don't want to be riding on a home favorite off such a long road trip... and you don't want to be going Over the Total either. The King's are on a major 'UNDER" run as well... going 0-2 O/U in their last two games... and 2-9 O/U in their last 11.

Meanwhile, the Warriors are on a current ATS winning streak... going 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games... and 8-2 ATS in their last 10. From a Totals perspective, we note that they too have gone 0-2 O/U in their last two games... and 1-4 O/U in their last 5. These two teams played each other 2 weeks ago (Jan. 10th). and that game went UNDER the TOTAL by 19 points (final score: 108-101... OU line was 228).

From a System standpoint, let's first take a look at Sacramento's recently-concluded LONG road trip.
1-7 O/U so far this season: All NBA home favs of < 10 points playing off 5 or more ROAD games in a row (Kings).

Now let's look at the current losing streak for tonight's host.
2-10 O/U since 1992L All division home favorites playing off 7 or more SU LOSSES in a row (Kings)... when the OU line is 200 > points.

So far in this month of January, All NBA DIVISION games in which the OU line is 215 > points have gone a PERFECT 0-4 O/U....

I also ran a query for the opposite ATS streaks in this game.
0-3 O/U last 6 weeks: All NBA home teams play~ing off BBB ATS losses (Kings)... versus an opponent off BBB AYS wins (Warriors).

Both teams come into this one with 2 days rest...
9-25 O/U so far this season: All NBA home teams in a '2/2' REST situation (Kings). And when the host is favored by 4 > points, these games have gone 1-7 O/U since December 1st.

The Golden State Warriors traveled to Phoenix on Saturday night and lost to the Suns by a score of 112-103 (UNDER by 18 points). They may have lost the game... but they DID get the cash (as in ATS win). How's this query to seal the deal?
0-5 O/U last 3 seasons: All WESTERN CONFERENCE road teams playing off a SU road loss BUT an ATS win against the Phoenix Suns (Warriors).