1-30-10

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-30-10

errringo

FRESH OFF HIS GOY LOSER BY 34 POINTS



1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #516 George Mason (-3) over James Madison (Noon) AND Take #520 West Virginia (-2) over Louisville (Noon)


2.5-Unit Play. Take #559 Alabama (-1) over Auburn (4 p.m., Sat., Jan. 30)


1.5-Unit Play. Take #547 Northern Iowa (-2) over Missouri State (3 p.m., Sat., Jan. 30)


2-Unit Play. Take #614 Cornell (-8) over Harvard (7 p.m., Sat., Jan. 30)


2-Unit Play. Take #620 Columbia (-9) over Dartmouth (7 p.m., Sat., Jan. 30)


2.5-Unit Play. Take #621 Dayton (-4.5) over St. Bonaventure (7 p.m., Sat., Jan. 30)


1.5-Unit Play. Take #653 Colorado (+7) over Iowa State (9 p.m., Sat., Jan. 30)


1.5-Unit Play. Take #663 Portland (-6) over Santa Clara (10 p.m., Sat., Jan. 30)


1-Unit Play. Take #530 Mississippi State (-11.5) over LSU (1:30 p.m., Sat., Jan. 30)


1-Unit Play. Take #555 Vanderbilt (+9) over Kentucky (4 p.m., Sat., Jan. 30)


1-Unit Play. Take #577 Tulsa (-6.5) over Central Florida (5 p.m., Sat., Jan. 30)

1-Unit Play. Take #581 Bradley (+8.5) over Illinois State (5:30 p.m., Sat., Jan. 30)


1-Unit Play. Take #597 Georgia (+7) over South Carolina (7 p.m., Sat., Jan. 30)


1-Unit Play. Take #644 Troy (-8) over South Alabama (8:30 p.m., Sat., Jan. 30)


1-Unit Play. Take #647 New Mexico State (+10) over Louisiana Tech (9 p.m., Sat., Jan. 30)


1-Unit Play. Take #647 San Jose State (+18) over Utah State (9 p.m., Sat., Jan. 30)


0.5-Unit Play. Take #685 Western Carolina (-2.5) over Samford (3 p.m., Sat., Jan. 30)


0.5-Unit Play. Take #565 Stanford (+11) over Arizona State (4 p.m., Sat., Jan. 30)


0.5-Unit Play. Take #587 Charlotte (-3) over Massachusetts (6 p.m., Sat., Jan. 30)


0.5-Unit Play. Take #584 Houston (-3.5) over Marshall (6 p.m., Sat., Jan. 30)


0.5-Unit Play. Take #525 Duke (-2) over Georgetown (1 p.m., Sat., Jan. 30)


0.5-Unit Play. Take #563 Baylor (+9) over Texas (4 p.m., Sat., Jan. 30)


0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #667 St. Mary’s (-5.5) over LMU (10 p.m., Sat., Jan. 30) AND Take #629 North Texas (+6) over Middle Tennessee (8 p.m., Sat., Jan. 30)

0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #574 Hofstra (-6.5) over Delaware (4 p.m., Sat., Jan. 30) AND Take #575 Iowa (+18.5) over Michigan (4:30 p.m., Sat., Jan. 30)

0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #534 Kent State (-5) over Western Michigan (2 p.m., Sat., Jan. 30) AND Take #677 Furman (+18.5) over Woford (3 p.m., Sat., Jan. 30)

1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #644 Troy (-3) over South Alabama (8:30 p.m., Sat., Jan. 30) AND Take #653 Colorado (+12) over Iowa State (9 p.m., Sat., Jan. 30)

0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #586 UNC-Wilmington (-2) over Towson (6 p.m., Sat., Jan. 30) AND Take #614 Cornell (-3) over Harvard (7 p.m., Sat., Jan. 30)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-30-10

Mark Lawrence
4* ucla
3* georgetown
3* washington st
3* kansas st
3* memphis grizzlies

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-30-10

Billy Coleman
5* San Jose St(OVER)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-30-10

Malinsky

-66.3 units NCAA Basketball YTD

4* #519 LOUISVILLE over WEST VIRGINIA

Want to talk > “Tough Out”? When you have a coach with the intensity and preparation
skills of Rick Pitino, and the kind of roster that he annually recruits at
Louisville, you are rarely going to be out of any game, even in a
conference as tough as the Big East. Over the past 3+ seasons the
Cardinals have played 65 conference games, with only four of them being
losses in double figures, and they are a sparkling 10-1-1 ATS as road
underdogs in that span. They have 21 outright league wins as a visitor. We
call for more of the same today in what will be a struggle for West
Virginia to merely win outright, much less get any kind of margin.Since
joining the Big East it has been a 5-1 SU run for Louisville in this
series, with the only defeat coming by just four points in an ATS cover,
and there are particular matchup advantages that come into play today,
something that we rarely find in an underdog of this range (usually when
you are getting this much more than the court value there are physical
issues to overcome). Pitino will be unleashing his press over the entire
court against a Mountaineer team that is still getting most inconsistent
PG play (Darryl Bryant is still more of a natural #2 playing out of
position), but it is more than just the way that the presses will cause
turnovers or create easy baskets – it also becomes a wearing down ocess
against a favorite that is getting precious little from the bench these
days. Last Saturday vs. Ohio State only six players saw more than 10
minutes of action, and in what should have been a walk-over vs. Depaul in
the middle of the week, every starter went at least 31 minutes, and the
reserves contributed only two points and one rebounds.Without quality
depth and ball-handling it is an uphill battle for West Virginia to get a
margin in this matchup, and we fully expect this game to go to the final
possession


4* #562 DETROIT over ILLINOIS-CHICAGO

On Thursday night Jimmy Collins and his U.I.C. Flames were in one of
those settings in which a team with character steps up. They had just
come off of a humiliating home loss against Butler when it appeared
that they quit early in the second half in front of their own fans,
with not even the 84-55 rout defining how bad it really was (15
different Butler players were on the court for at least two minutes
and 13 different players scored, as Brad Stevens tried to not
embarrass Collins). And the Flames were up against a Wright State
team that is hard-pressed to score, and was also distracted by the
look-ahead to a revenge game this afternoon. As such, we got in play
and looked for the U.I.C. pride to show. But there was none. That
changes the category quickly here. While we often will back a team
off of a particularly humiliating defeat, when we see two games in a
row in which they basically quit on the court it tells us that there
are some legitimate issues going forward, and this game also brings
us the right favorite to back to expose them even more.

After losing the second half 47-29 vs. Butler it was even worse on
Thursday at Wright State, with the Raiders rolling 45-19 after
intermission in a 79-43 blowout. It makes the second half count a
shocking 92-48 in the last two games, and when a team shows that
little heart to keep competing things can go from bad to worse,
especially with the quick turnaround time to this tip-off. Just how
bad was the effort on Thursday? Wright State had more offensive
rebounds than U.I.C. had defensive caroms. You do not need a spread
sheet to track how often that happens in a typical college hoops
season.

Detroit is primed to take advantage here. Because Robert McCallum has
the most physical team in the Horizon, with plenty of depth to go
hard for the full 40 minutes, the Titans are already 4-0 ATS in the
?second leg? of these weekend conference sets, and they go after this
one with a major chip on their shoulder after getting upset 60-56 by
the Flames in Chicago earlier. It was the kind of defeat that stings,
with Detroit turning the ball over 22 times and getting out-scored
25-9 at the free throw line, as key inside cog Eli Holman was limited
to nine minutes because of foul trouble. The fouls were not the only
fluke of the evening, but also the fact that Robo Kreps scored 31 of
the 60 U.I.C. points. That all changes here. A stifling Detroit
defense that is allowing only 37.7 percent shooting in league play,
including 28.6 from beyond the arc, will bring the intensity to choke
off the pop-gun attack of the visitors, and after 12 players saw
action in Thursday?s 83-63 rout of Loyola, a game in which the
teamwork was sparkling (21 assists vs. only six TO?s, with five
different players having at least three assists), they bring the
energy and confidence to break this wide open.

5* #559 ALABAMA over AUBURN

We do not believe the home court advantage means all that much here ?
because Auburn basketball has not been drawing well (the loss to
Kentucky here two weeks ago was the only home game all season to draw
more than 7,000 fans), which means plenty of chances for folks
wearing Alabama crimson to find their way into the seats. Yet it has
been priced as though it matters, and that means time to step things
up a bit here in a pick?em range in which one team brings so many
major advantages in the key categories.

It is no secret that Alabama has more talent and size, and is the
deeper team in this matchup. But it is the way that can be used that
makes this flow so easily. The Crimson Tide bring a high level of
energy off of Wednesday?s easy home win over L.S.U., while Auburn is
caught in a quick turn-around off of Thursday?s late-night start vs.
Mississippi. To note what that issue entails, four different Tiger
starters played more minutes on Thursday than any Alabama
starter worked on Wednesday. And since energy is the key to the
Alabama arsenal, Anthony Grant has the puzzle pieces right where he
wants them.

As expected, the Crimson Tide are guarding tenaciously now that they
are settling into Grant?s traps and presses ? through six S.E.C.
games they are allowing just 37.1 percent shooting, compared to 51.7
for Auburn (do we ever find a pick?em range for that kind of gap?),
and just 25 percent from 3-point range, a major plus against a Tiger
offense that generates so many of their points from beyond the arc.
In 240 conference floor minutes the Bama defense has only allowed 53
assists, a remarkable count. But it is not just defense right now, it
is an offense that is also playing unselfishly, and we particularly
like the fact that their 43 made FG?s in winning their last two games
came via 35 assists. That is a terrific ratio. In JaMychael Green
there is an interior presence that Auburn can not match up with, and
Mikhail Torrance provides plenty of road savvy in the back-court.

It is more than just limited personnel causing problems at Auburn
these days ? as the losses mount the Tigers become increasingly
fragile mentally. This, from Franki Sullivan, speaks volumes
-"We'll be in the games until the last five minutes of the second
half and we just have a mental meltdown. Everybody wants to be a hero
... one pass and a shot, and that's not really helping our team
chemistry.'' Of course when you are physically wearing down it is
easier for that desperation to set in, and with four of their six
S.E.C. opponents having their season high of points against this
defense, we can expect more of the same this afternoon, with Alabama
gradually pulling away down the stretch.

6* #597 GEORGIA over SOUTH CAROLINA

The tenacity showed by Devan Downey & Co. in upsetting Kentucky on
Tuesday night was one of the great stories of this college basketball
season, and once again we find a highly visible result leading to an
over-reaction in the marketplace. Now the hunter becomes the hunted,
and we have a favorite that is not well set at all for those changing
roles, especially given tonight?s matchups.

Nothing can come easily for the Gamecocks because of their roster
limitations ? they could only beat S.E.C. light-weights Auburn and
L.S.U. in single digits as part of their 3-3 opening in league play,
and the bottom line shows weaknesses galore ? through six conference
games they are shooting only 39.3 percent, while allowing 46.4; they
are making just 65 percent of their free throws; they are losing the
battle of the boards by 2.3 per game; and there is an awful ratio of
74 turnovers vs. only 47 assists. Getting a 3-3 out of that takes
sleight of hand, which is what Downey helped them to accomplish, with
his 31.3 ppg in S.E.C. games nearly half of the 67.8 team total. Now
Carolina is not just being asked to win, but to get a margin, and it
takes an almost perfect ride for that to happen with the limited
pieces that are available, especially on a night in which the
intensity will be nowhere near what it was on Tuesday.

While the 3-3 of the home team in S.E.C. play negates the weak bottom
line in so many categories, Georgia flies under the radar in the
opposite direction. The Bulldogs are 1-4 in conference action despite
shooting 48.6 percent from the field, including 41.2 from beyond the
arc; 71.1 at the FT line; and leading the conference with a +6.2
rebounding advantage. And note that of those five games three were
tough road tests at Kentucky, Florida and Mississippi State, part of
one of the nation?s toughest schedules (#1 Sagarin and #7 Pomeroy ?
their January opponents so far are a combined 122-37). The Bulldogs
have the size and depth that Carolina lacks, with that front-line of
6-10/247 Trey Thompkins, a legit All-American candidate (17.3 points
and 7.9 rebounds per game, and up to 20.2 ppg in S.E.C. action),
6-11/265 Albert Jackson and 6-8/264 Jeremy Price providing major
matchup advantages around the basket. Because of that size Mark Fox
has been using a lot of 3-2 zone looks, with the bulk of his interior
players enabling the guards to stretch out further on the perimeter,
and that is the very best way to slow Downey down.

No surprise at all here if an under-rated Georgia team is able to
pull the outright upset, and the generous points being offered create
a substantial cushion.

4* #624 KANSAS STATE over KANSAS

So many times when we focus on the concept of a ?Tough Out?, it is a
team that is going to play with enough grit on the road to be able to
stay within a high pointspread. It rarely comes up with a home team
because we simply do not find situations like this one ? a case in
which a team that brings a unique physical tenacity for the full 40
minutes is getting this many points on their own court. So we take
advantage of the rare setting that is in front of us.

We are more than two-third of the way through the regular season for
most of Division I, and through all of the charting and film study we
have not found a team that competes harder than Frank Martin?s
Wildcats. That is what happens when you have size, athleticism and
depth, and also the intensity that the coach imparts on his players.
And having faced one of the nation?s toughest schedules (#10 Sagarin
and #12 Pomeroy) they have developed that toughness against big-time
competition, which has them prepared for this kind of step-up affair,
much like that 71-62 win over Texas on this court nearly two weeks
ago. And considering that schedule, the fact that the defense has
forced 125 more TO?s than assists allowed, while also blocking 104
shots in 20 games, is remarkable, a tribute to the ferocity that they
bring.

This is not just line value with a team that will fight to the final
possession, however ? we also see vulnerabilities in the Kansas game.
While the Jayhawks can be a thing of beauty when running the floor
the half-court offense is still a work in progress, which is a
natural with two freshmen in the starting lineup, and the first
player off the bench being a sophomore. There have only been two road
games all season against likely tournament teams, one of them that
sluggish loss to short-handed Tennessee, and on a neutral court that
favored them greatly from a fan standpoint at St. Louis they were
hard-pressed to escape 57-55 vs. Memphis. Despite the presence of
Cole Aldrich inside this is a team that looks soft on the wings, with
good athleticism and basketball skills but not necessarily toughness.
That is where the weakness lies for this matchup, and in front of
what may well be the most intense crowd we will see for a college
game this season a win by the home team should not be categorized as
an ?upset? in any way.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-30-10

malinksy

4* MISSOURI/OKLAHOMA STATE Over

There are no secrets for this one – in a game in which both teams want to extend their defense to generate pressure and tempo the door is open for a track meet if the offenses chose to be aggressive, and that is exactly what we expect to see here. Both of these teams prefer to attack presses by taking the ball to the basket rather than having to settle into half-court sets, and that not only gets us to a high pace count, but also plenty of open court opportunities that can be converted into easy baskets as well. And with both teams shooting over 70 percent at the free throw line, the fouls that become a natural part of a high-tempo affair also work in our favor. These two played to a 192 in the regular season meeting in Stillwater LY, when there were 137 FG attempts and 69 FT’s, and while things slowed down in the second go-round in the Big 12 tourney note that the circumstances were much different – the Cowboys were playing for the third straight day, and the Tigers the second straight. Now both sides are fresh, and this one sails

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-30-10

Doc's NBA

2-Unit Play #507 Take Miami/Milwaukee OVER 191 ½ (8:30 p.m. EST, Saturday)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-30-10

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

Orlando -5

The top teams in the Southeast Division face off for the second time this month Saturday night when the Hawks try to snap a five-game losing streak against the Magic; however, for a number of different reasons I believe we're getting excellent value on the home side in this situation:

Atlanta (30-15) is looking to build on the momentum from its first season sweep of Boston in 11 years. The Hawks built a 14-point lead over the Celtics on Friday, then watched it almost disappear before holding on for a 100-91 victory to cap the 4-0 series; I expect a letdown less than 24 hours after that victory.

While the Hawks insist the victory doesn’t mean much, they have won nine of their last 12 and are one-half game ahead of Orlando (30-16) for the best record in the division. What’s most impressive about the stretch is that three of those wins have come against the Celtics, and Atlanta also posted victories over Houston and Phoenix.

The achilles heel of this team though has been its play on the road 2-4 SU its last six; it also always struggles against Orlando; 0-5 ATS its last five vs. the Magic.

On the other side of the court: Orlando cruised to a 93-76 win Nov. 26 and routed Atlanta 113-81 on Jan. 9.

The Hawks shot a combined 39.3 % in those games, which extended their losing streak over the Magic to five games. Atlanta has topped 90 points only once during that skid.

To say that Orlando gives the Hawks "matchup issues" would be an understatement.

Keep in mind that Orlando is 4-1 SU its last five and is 11-2 SU its last 13 in front of the home town crowd.

Bottom line: Like Atlanta, Orlando is also coming off a victory over Boston after defeating the Celtics 96-94 at Amway Arena on Thursday. Rashard Lewis made the go-ahead layup with 1.3 seconds remaining, capping the Magic’s comeback from a 16-point deficit; I expect them to build momentum from that victory; look for ORLANDO to improve to 5-4 ATS vs. division opponents and for Atlanta to fall to a sub-par 7-8 ATS revenging a loss vs. an opponent!

10* MAGIC

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-30-10

Rocketman

Utah +14

Utes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Saturday games. BYU just lost to New Mexico in a great game a few days ago. It was their first conference loss and only their 2nd overall loss of the season. Many teams will bounce back strong from a big loss like that but I feel the opposite here today with BYU. I do feel BYU will make some major noise in the NCAA Tournament but I feel somewhat of a letdown here today for them. I feel like Utah will hang in there today and keep this one close. We'll play Utah for 3 units tonight!

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-30-10

Tony George

Georgia +7.5

Going against South Carolina who if off an upset win of then number 1 Kentucky, a team that Georgia lost to by only 8 points. The Bulldogs also have beaten Tennessee this season and while an average ball club overall, you look at So. Carolina and they have averaged just 65 ppg, 38% from the floor and 63% from the free throw line. Not stellar numbers. Georgia will keep this close and there is always a let down after a big win. Last week we took Okie St at K State after K State knocked off number 1 Texas in the same type scenario and Okie St won as a 10 point road pup. Georgia may not win, but if So Carolina shoots less than 42% from there floor they are in deep trouble here. Play 1 Unit on Georgia.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-30-10

Bob Donahue

Creighton at Drake
Pick: Drake -1

Drake has been playing lights out, and while their five game win streak was broken, look for them to regain their winning ways this evening. This is not your Creighton team of old, and they are mired in the lower third of the Missouri Valley Conference. The Creighton boys have not had much success on the road and look for that to continue.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-30-10

The Duke's Sports

*Best Bet* Charleston (-2') for 3.5 Units

The Cougars should get back on track in this spot; after all, Charleston is 4-1 ATS in this series and sports a 4-1-1 ATS mark as a road favorite. They're also 4-1 ATS on Saturdays and are clearly the better team. The Eagles are a mere 7-19 ATS as a small dog. We'll look for the Cougars, which are coming off tow straight road losses, to have had their wake up call and come out firing today. We'll look for a season sweep here.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-30-10

Doc
6 Unit Play. Take Duke -1 ½ over Georgetown

5 unit play Missouri -7 ½ over Oklahoma State

4 Unit Play Alabama -1 over Auburn

4 Unit Play William & Mary -4 ½ over Drexel

4 Unit Play Arkansas State -1 over Denver

4 Unit Play Northern Arizona +1 ½ over Montana

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-30-10

Vegas Runner
SW Missouri +2. 2* personal play

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-30-10

stu finer

Vanderbilt @ Kentucky 4:00 PM EST
Play On: Vanderbilt +9.0 (100-Dime)

Kansas @ Kansas St. 7:00 PM EST
Play On: Kansas St. +3.0 (100-Dime)

Georgia @ South Carolina 7:00 PM EST
Play On: Georgia +7.5 (10,000-Dime)

Flat spot here for the Gamecocks, 14-21 ATS laying points, coming off of Tuesday's home upset of No. 1-ranked Kentucky. Simple here is that if you stop Devan Downey then you stop the Gamecocks and look for Georgia coach Mark Fox to have a winning plan installed for the Dawgs. Georgia has been a scrappy team with a home wins over Tennessee and Georgia Tech (and a neutral court win over Illinois) plus tough losses at Mississippi State (three points) and Kentucky (eight points) here in January. Big man Trey Thompkins will cause match-up issues inside for South Carolina, which had been on slides of 0-3 SU and 1-3 ATS before a lay-up missing Kentucky team handed it the game Tuesday. The Dawgs are 4-1 ATS in SEC games this year and after a sub-par effort at Florida on Wednesday, look for a big effort from Fox's Dawgs, who have covered all three when coming off a conference loss this season.

Northwestern @ Michigan St. 7:00 PM EST
Play On: Northwestern +13.0 (10,000-Dime)

The Wildcats, 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS this month in Big Ten games, will give a game effort in staying inside this bloated number at Michigan State, which is on spread slides of 4-8 versus winning teams, 4-7 at home and 7-10 when laying points. Difficult motivational spot for a Spartan team off two tough wins at rival Michigan and Minnesota, and next up have a trip to Wisconsin on Tuesday. Northwestern has four of its next five at home and after winning in East Lansing last season, the Cats will be more focused and employ better energy after their horrible defensive effort in a 21-point home loss to MUS back on Jan. 2. The Cats, on spread surges this season of 7-4 as a dog, 4-1 on the road and 9-4 versus winning teams, should be inspired after taking Minnesota to the wire in Minneapolis on Tuesday. John Shurna and Northwestern give a game effort in losing by just eight tonight at the Breslin Center.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-30-10

WUNDERDOG NHL
3 units on CAR Hurricanes at CHI Blackhawks total under 5.5