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Re: 2-2-10
Guaranteed Pick: Scott Rickenbach
Game: Michigan at Northwestern Feb 2 2010 7:00PM
Prediction: Michigan
Reason: Scott Rickenbach’s NCAAB 10* (TOP PLAY) Michigan Wolverines (+) @ Northwestern @ 7:00 PM ET – RATING SYSTEM: Plays range from 6* up to 10*. The 6*, 7*, and 8* picks are the normal, daily play ratings. The 9* and 10* picks are the higher-rated plays and are Top Plays! A 10* Top Play, of course, is a level above a 9* Top Play!
The premise for this selection is very similar to the situation that led to our play on Western Michigan yesterday. In that game the Broncos absolutely rolled from start to finish at Buffalo. As for today’s situation, this is another case of a team that came into the season with high expectations, then lost a couple big games and everyone immediately jumped off the bandwagon. The result is that the Wolverines continue to give us more value than many other teams and that is why it should come as no big surprise that this team is now a perfect 6-0 ATS when installed as an underdog this season. Also, note that Michigan is 7-2 ATS in Big Ten games this season and, off of a defensive-minded 60-46 win over Iowa, note that the Wolverines are 3-1 ATS this season when they allowed 60 points or less in their prior game. While Michigan has been considered a disappointment so far this season they have indeed showed some signs of turning things around and, under Coach John Beilein, there is no doubt that this team is well-coached. The players are also starting to get more and more adjusted to his systems. Still, even though the Wolverines have covered six straight games and eight of their last nine, they are viewed as a disappointment in the eyes of most followers of the Big Ten. That helps to give us line value and that is especially true when Michigan is facing a team like Northwestern whom has overachieved so far this season.
The Wildcats, after losing some key players early including a big scorer in Kevin Coble, were expected to struggle this season. However, Northwestern jumped out of the gates with a 10-1 start that got everybody’s attention. The Wildcats have since gone just 4-6 but they’ve still been a covering machine and most everyone is enamored with them because of their strong start to the season. What we see is a Wildcats team that is over-rated and is playing right into the “teeth of revenge” here. The Wolverines hosted Northwestern last month, got out to a big double digit lead and then watched the Wildcats come all the way back to steal a win on Michigan’s home floor. The Wolverines have had this game circled ever since and with talented players like Manny Harris in the backcourt and DeShawn Sims in the frontcourt, they are fully capable of getting their revenge here. The Wildcats are a ridiculous 11 of 24 from three point land in their win at Michigan and that is highly unlikely to be repeated here. Essentially, Northwestern outscored the Wolverines by 12 points from three point land and that was the difference in the Wildcats taking the game by a final score of 68 to 62. Northwestern has allowed their last four opponents to shoot better than 50% combined from the field (including 55% at home against Illinois!) while the Wildcats have been held to 42.6% or less in 9 of their last 12 games. This is simply not a very good team offensively and with their defense now “slipping up” as well, they are in for trouble against a fired up Wolverines team that has been playing it’s best basketball of the season. Michigan’s three recent straight-up losses came against Michigan State and then in two road games at Purdue and Wisconsin. All of those are tough match-ups and those defeats are helping to give us line value in a big-time revenge spot here where the Wolverines are the much more talented team and will bring their “A game” tonight. Play Michigan plus the points as a *10* Top Play selection.
Guaranteed Pick: Scott Rickenbach
Game: Michigan at Northwestern Feb 2 2010 7:00PM
Prediction: Michigan
Reason: Scott Rickenbach’s NCAAB 10* (TOP PLAY) Michigan Wolverines (+) @ Northwestern @ 7:00 PM ET – RATING SYSTEM: Plays range from 6* up to 10*. The 6*, 7*, and 8* picks are the normal, daily play ratings. The 9* and 10* picks are the higher-rated plays and are Top Plays! A 10* Top Play, of course, is a level above a 9* Top Play!
The premise for this selection is very similar to the situation that led to our play on Western Michigan yesterday. In that game the Broncos absolutely rolled from start to finish at Buffalo. As for today’s situation, this is another case of a team that came into the season with high expectations, then lost a couple big games and everyone immediately jumped off the bandwagon. The result is that the Wolverines continue to give us more value than many other teams and that is why it should come as no big surprise that this team is now a perfect 6-0 ATS when installed as an underdog this season. Also, note that Michigan is 7-2 ATS in Big Ten games this season and, off of a defensive-minded 60-46 win over Iowa, note that the Wolverines are 3-1 ATS this season when they allowed 60 points or less in their prior game. While Michigan has been considered a disappointment so far this season they have indeed showed some signs of turning things around and, under Coach John Beilein, there is no doubt that this team is well-coached. The players are also starting to get more and more adjusted to his systems. Still, even though the Wolverines have covered six straight games and eight of their last nine, they are viewed as a disappointment in the eyes of most followers of the Big Ten. That helps to give us line value and that is especially true when Michigan is facing a team like Northwestern whom has overachieved so far this season.
The Wildcats, after losing some key players early including a big scorer in Kevin Coble, were expected to struggle this season. However, Northwestern jumped out of the gates with a 10-1 start that got everybody’s attention. The Wildcats have since gone just 4-6 but they’ve still been a covering machine and most everyone is enamored with them because of their strong start to the season. What we see is a Wildcats team that is over-rated and is playing right into the “teeth of revenge” here. The Wolverines hosted Northwestern last month, got out to a big double digit lead and then watched the Wildcats come all the way back to steal a win on Michigan’s home floor. The Wolverines have had this game circled ever since and with talented players like Manny Harris in the backcourt and DeShawn Sims in the frontcourt, they are fully capable of getting their revenge here. The Wildcats are a ridiculous 11 of 24 from three point land in their win at Michigan and that is highly unlikely to be repeated here. Essentially, Northwestern outscored the Wolverines by 12 points from three point land and that was the difference in the Wildcats taking the game by a final score of 68 to 62. Northwestern has allowed their last four opponents to shoot better than 50% combined from the field (including 55% at home against Illinois!) while the Wildcats have been held to 42.6% or less in 9 of their last 12 games. This is simply not a very good team offensively and with their defense now “slipping up” as well, they are in for trouble against a fired up Wolverines team that has been playing it’s best basketball of the season. Michigan’s three recent straight-up losses came against Michigan State and then in two road games at Purdue and Wisconsin. All of those are tough match-ups and those defeats are helping to give us line value in a big-time revenge spot here where the Wolverines are the much more talented team and will bring their “A game” tonight. Play Michigan plus the points as a *10* Top Play selection.
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