3-19-10

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-19-10

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

Louisville +1

For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on Louisville

Ninth-seeded Louisville (22-10) starts two seniors at guard, Edgar Sosa and Jerry Smith, and another senior starter, Reginald Delk, can swing between guard and forward.

Louisville will force an up-tempo game, which starts with Sosa, Smith and Delk pressing and trapping.

Although its struggled in almost every single ATS statistical category, this is a position that the Cardinals have excelled in this year; 4-3 ATS off a loss against a conference rival.

On the other side of the court: The eighth-seeded Golden Bears (23-10) have two senior starters in Pac-10 player of the year Jerome Randle and Patrick Christopher.

Cal is just 1-5 ATS as an underdog; 2-3 ATS when playing on a neutral court this season.

Bottom line: “We're up against it and we know it. We're spending every waking moment studying Cal,” said Pitino. “They're very tough to guard in transition. Randle is equally good off the bounce as he is pulling up. They're an excellent fundamental team. They move well, they pass well. They play like a senior team. They're not going to beat themselves.”

Two very evenly matched teams here but in the end I believe that the experience and depth (the Cards sometimes play 10 or 11 players off the bench) that Louisville has will ultimately be the difference here; play on the CARDINALS!

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-19-10

Dwayne Bryant - WRITE UP

Florida St -1.5

I said in a previous writeup that I will usually back the better defensive team, especially in these tournament games. That would be the Seminoles in this matchup. Florida State is ranked #1 out of 347 Division I teams in defensive efficiency. FSU is also ranked #1 in 2-point shooting percentage allowed (39.9%). The 'Noles allow just 37.4% shooting overall. And all that was achieved while playing in the rugged ACC.

Gonzaga has that name recognition in NCAA hoops, so many bettors will back them blindly in this first round. I think that's a mistake. Yes, Gonzaga was the class of the West Coast Conference, but they did get hammered by St. Mary's in the conference tourney. Granted, the 'Zags knew they didn't need to win the conference tourney, so they lacked the motivation that their double revenge-minded foe did not.

The fact is Gonzaga has not faced a tough defensive team like FSU since they played Duke (currently ranked #4 in defensive efficiency) early in the season. Duke beat Gonzaga by 35 points on a neutral court. FSU is certainly no Duke, but the Seminoles are ranked #19 in the country according to Pomeroy's ratings (Gonzaga is #56). The 'Zags did play and beat Wisconsin (currently ranked #7 in defensive efficiency), but the Badgers couldn't match Gonzaga's size or tempo; FSU can.

By losing their first game in the WCC Tournament, Gonzaga extended their layoff coming into this game. The 'Zags have had 10 days off leading up to this game. Not to mention they had to travel across THREE time zones for this East coast matchup. Between the lengthy layoff and the time adjustment, Gonzaga can't help but be a bit "off" for this one.

Bottom line: FSU is the better defensive team and they earned their #1 rankings playing in what Pomeroy has rated as the toughest conference. Gonzaga had to travel three time zones and hasn't played in 10 days. That's enough for me in what is basically a "pick the winner" situation. I see a Seminoles win by five, so I'll lay the small number with Florida State.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-19-10

Bob Balfe

Georgia Tech +1.5

At times, Georgia Tech can get wild and sloppy on offense and turn the ball over a lot. In addition, they are a relatively poor foul shooting team. Poor stats within these areas are caused by mental mistakes. However, I believe this team will be focused for today's opening round game. GTech is one of the best teams in the nation in creating turnovers and blocking shots. Oklahoma State takes a lot of quick, rushed shots and are poor at utilizing the shot clock in order to create opportunities for second chance points via offensive rebounds. This Tech defense is very under-rated and should frustrate the Cowboys offense for the entire 40 minutes. Georgia Tech will also win the battle of the boards and be on their way to a big opening round win! Take the Yellow Jackets.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-19-10

St. Bernadines - Lillefty

2* Pittsburgh -9.5 over Oakland
2* Oklahoma st/Georgia tech over 139.5
2* Syracuse/Vermont over 144
2* Louisville ML +110

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-19-10

EXECUTIVE
400% Houston