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Re: 5-4-10
NBA NEWS AND NOTES
NBA EASTERN CONFERENCE
Hawks vs. Magic Series Preview
By Larry Josephson
Atlanta Hawks vs. Orlando Magic
There are so many issues with the Atlanta Hawks that it’s hard to figure out where to start.
Maybe the best place to begin is at the finish, which is where this franchise probably will be in a week or 10 days after the Orlando Magic have bounced them out of the playoffs in five or six games.
The Hawks team that finishes this season will probably bear little resemblance to the team that begins 2010-11 play next November.
Unless Mike Woodson can figure out a way to get his team past Orlando or at least get it to a seventh game, he’ll probably be looking for work before the official start of summer. He’s had several years to make it work in Georgia. And while there has been incremental progress, the feeling is growing that he – much like the team – has maxed out. Woodson is hammered day and night on Hawks message boards.
Woodson is a likeable sort and his Hawks have enough talent to do damage on any given night (ask the Celtics, who were swept by Atlanta this season and in their championship season two years ago were life and death with the Hawks in a seven-game, opening-round set). But unless the Hawks are creating turnovers and pushing the ball, the offense is no more complicated than what you would see at any elementary school morning recess.
Defense, to paraphrase Leona Helmsley, is for the little people. The Hawks might dig in when they have to for 4- or 5-minute stretches, but over 48 a night they will always give their opponent enough blue sky to go on runs. Without a big man Milwaukee should have been kicked to the curb in four games, but a bad loss at home in Game 5 forced the Hawks to roll their eyes and work hard for two games and win it in 7.
Speaking of big men, there are none in Atlanta unless the Hawks can talk Zelmo Beaty out of retirement. Beaty is now 70 but might still be able to bang with Dwight Howard as well as the Hawks’ current front line can. Al Horford works hard and didn’t look like a Horford out of water against Milwaukee because the Bucks’ Andrew Bogut was sidelined, but it all ends when the Magic trot out Dwight Howard for the opening tap. And after a sucky four games against the Bobcats that included a fine for complaining about the referees, Howard will not be in a pleasant mood when this series starts.
This could be the last go-round in Atlanta for Joe Johnson, who hits the free agent market this summer and would be an attractive consolation prize for any talent-hungry team that is unable to land LeBron, Dwyane or Bosh. Johnson is able to take over games for short periods of time, but he is expected to wear down chasing Orlando’s front line as it spots up and treats this series like it’s the All-Star Game 3-point contest.
Meanwhile, everything is setting up nicely for the Magic, who have had a full week off since defeating the Bobcats in Round 1.
Howard could have a dominating series. He did not play as many as 30 minutes in any of the four Charlotte games (foul trouble was a big reason), and while he didn’t score much (9.8 ppg), he did block 20 shots. He’ll be rested and motivated.
Orlando did not score in triple digits in any of the Charlotte games, but the Bobcats’ walk-it-up style has a lot to do with that. In fact, the scoring was skewed as Jameer Nelson scored 24 a game and Vince Carter only 15.
The Magic feel they have some unfinished business to take care of. Late last spring, Orlando came with a Courtney Lee missed layup of making life very uncomfortable for the eventual NBA-champion Lakers, and they get a legitimate shot at returning to the finals again this season.
Assuming that the Hawks don’t have enough to pull a major upset, the Magic will get either Cleveland (likely) or Boston (possibly) in the Eastern finals and perhaps another Finals with Los Angeles.
Atlanta will hit the wall here. Since the Hawks play at 90 mph, it will be ugly. Orlando has no problem winning on the road – the Magic won games in Boston and in Cleveland in the playoffs last season – and should clean things up in no more than five. If the Hawks want to up the tempo the game they’ll have to rebound and they have no one with enough elbow grease to bang with the Orlando bigs.
Prediction: Magic In Five Games -
Re: 5-4-10
PICK 'N' ROLL
Today's Best NBA Bets
Atlanta Hawks at Orlando Magic (-9, 192)
With the Magic sweeping Charlotte in four games, the team hasn’t played competitive basketball in eight days.
"It can go against you or it can help you," Hawks coach Mike Woodson said of the layoff. "If your team is banged up, they had a good week to heal some wounds. Sometimes layoffs can hurt you as well."
Not only has Orlando not played a game in more than a week, the team hasn’t stepped into Amway Arena with anything on the line but practice in 13 days.
"We're pretty tired of that," Vince Carter said. "A real game will be a welcome site."
All the time off adds up to the Magic coming out a little rusty in this playoff series opener. The team lives and dies by the 3-pointer and having an opponent’s hand in your face is much different than your teammate’s during practice.
Atlanta may have figured out the key to success during the last two games against the Bucks – defense. The Hawks held Milwaukee to 69 and 74 points while wrapping up the series.
Hotlanta has played to the under in three straight and the last five meetings between these two went under by an average of 17.2 points per game. Expect the streaks to extend tonight.
Pick: UnderComment
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Re: 5-4-10
NHL NEWS AND NOTES
WHAT BETTORS NEED TO KNOW
Penguins at Canadiens
Pittsburgh Penguins at Montreal Canadiens (+140, 5.5)
Series tied 1-1
Welcome Back Halak
Montreal goaltender Jaroslav Halak returned to playoff form in Sunday’s 3-1 win over Pittsburgh in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference semifinal.
Halak, who captured the hockey world’s attention with his stellar play in the Canadiens’ first-round upset of the No. 1 Washington Capitals, gave up five goals on 20 shots before being pulled in Game 1’s 6-3 loss. However, he rebounded by making 38 saves in Game 2’s victory over the Penguins.
"I needed to be better," Halak told reporters following the win. "I knew that. I think the guys knew they needed to step up. And we did that tonight."
Sunday’s performance improves Halak’s postseason numbers to a 2.68 GAA and a .931 save percentage in eight playoff games. He’s faced an average of over 36 shots per game and seems to rise to the occasion when opponents pepper him with shots. Halak is 4-0 when facing 38 or more shots this postseason.
Cooler Heads Prevail
Pittsburgh’s offense looked like it had ice water flowing through its veins in Game 1. The defending Stanley Cup champs scored six goals – including an empty netter late in the third period – on just 24 shots on goal.
But, with Montreal tightening up the blueline, the Penguins found little room to operate in Sunday’s 3-1 loss. Pittsburgh jumped out to an early one-goal lead in the first period but couldn’t solve the Habs defense for the remainder of the game. It wasn’t for a lack of effort. Pittsburgh fired 39 shots on goal, with 30 of those coming in the final two periods of the game.
"We expected games like this, where their goaltender plays well and their defence plays like they did," Penguins head coach Dan Bylsma told the media. "We have to continue to go with our game plan - it's a race to four."
While Pittsburgh’s power play dominated in Game 1, scoring four goals with the man advantage, it was locked down Sunday. Montreal killed all three of the Pens’ power-play chances and added a goal with the man advantage itself, getting a power-play score from Michael Cammalleri in the second period.
Emotions boiled over when Penguins star Sidney Crosby smashed his stick against the Canadiens goal post after a failed scoring attempt in the second period, shattering the stick into pieces and making it obvious that the Habs were getting the Pens' goat.
The Jordan Rules
Pittsburgh’s offensive stumble could have a lot to do with the injury to third-line center Jordan Staal, who suffered tendon damage on top of his left foot during Game 1 of this conference semifinal.
Staal, a towering grinder who was key in last year’s Stanley Cup run, underwent surgery Friday and is currently listed as day-to-day and is expected to return some time in the postseason.
"He's a guy we always look to as a two-way guy and a guy who's real tough to play against," Penguins captain Sidney Crosby told the press. "Collectively, we all have to make sure we're better. Whoever's playing in his absence, I don't think they have to put pressure on themselves to be Jordan Staal, (because) he's not an easy guy to replace."
Penguins backers are hoping that return is sooner than later. Staal had four points in the playoffs including a goal in Game 1 before colliding with Canadiens defenseman P.K. Subban mid way through Friday’s game.
With Staal out of the lineup, Pittsburgh has shuffled its forward corps, putting Maxime Talbot on the third line with Matt Cooke and Tyler Kennedy. Talbot was also an important part of last year’s championship team.
"(Staal) is obviously someone really hard to replace," Talbot told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. "I don't think you can replace a guy like that. I'll do my best to be effective and do what I can do."
Montreal is also dealing with serious injuries. Defenseman Andrei Markov is expected to miss the rest of the postseason after suffering what is being reported as a severe knee injury in Game 1. He had three assists in the playoffsComment
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Re: 5-4-10
ICE PICKS
Today's Best NHL Bets
San Jose Sharks at Detroit Red Wings (-165, 5.5)
Most hockey fans expected the perennially, underachieving playoff Sharks to lose at least one of the first two games in this series.
But perhaps this is the season the Stanley Cup knows its way to San Jose. The Sharks took the first two games of the series with 4-3 decisions but now the match heads to Hockey Town.
"It'll be nice to get home ice again," Nicklas Lidstrom said. "We're down 2-0 in this series, but we're heading home. It's going to be an important Game 3 coming up in Detroit. We're confident playing at home, but playoffs is different than the regular season.”
The Red Wings lost two of three home games in the first-round series versus Phoenix but went 25-10-6 at Joe Louis Arena during the regular season.
Detroit is hoping to get the same kind of love from the officials on their home ice as San Jose did at the Shark Tank. The Sharks were afforded 16 power-play opportunities during the first two games while the Wings only had nine.
Look for the powers-to-be to give Detroit enough of a home-rink advantage to get the team back in the series.
Pick: Detroit Red WingsComment
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Re: 5-4-10
MLB NEWS AND NOTES
Tuesday's Tip Sheet
By Chris David
One month of the pro baseball season is in the books and Tampa Bay is sitting in the top spot. Tonight, the Rays begin a three-game set against Seattle. Along with this series starting, the National League also has some new sets beginning too.
Atlanta (11-14, -526) at Washington (13-12, +778)
Are the Braves back? After dropping nine straight games, Atlanta has rebounded with a three-game sweep over Houston this past weekend. The offense busted out of the slump with 21 runs and the pitching staff was brilliant too, surrendering just four runs in the victories. Kenshin Kawakami (0-4, 5.48 ERA) hopes to keep the momentum going on Tuesday when the team visits Washington. The Japanese product will also be looking for his first win of the season but he needs his lineup to help him. In his four starts, the Braves have put up a total of five runs. The ‘under’ has gone 3-1 in his appearances.
Washington has definitely opened up some eyes, especially with a winning record in May. The Nationals are tied for third place in the National League East despite losing two of three against the Marlins over the weekend. The pitching staff gave up 16 runs in the two losses, which hasn’t been a common theme for the Nats recently. Prior to those ugly performances, the staff allowed four runs or less in nine straight and the ‘under’ went 8-1 in those contests.
Livan Hernandez (3-1, 0.87 ERA) will try to bust Washington out of its mini-slump against Atlanta and he’s got a great shot to do so. The hefty hurler has only given up three earned runs in four starts, plus he’s gone at least seven innings in all four as well. The lone loss was a 2-0 setback to Colorado. The ‘under’ has gone 4-0 in his appearances this season.
The Braves went 10-8 against the Nationals last year and the ‘under’ posted a 10-7-1 mark in the 18 meetings.
Chicago Cubs (13-13, -370) at Pittsburgh (10-15, -147)
The Cubs have been up and down this season and a lot of their success has come from their bats and right now the hits are happening. After dropping three straight, Chicago finished up the weekend strong with three consecutive victories over Arizona behind an offense that put up 11, 7 and 10 runs. The only downside to taking three of four over the Diamondbacks was the pitching which surrendered 28 runs in the four-game set.
Chicago leans to Ryan Dempster (2-1, 2,78 ERA) tonight and he’s been unlucky this year with a pair of no decisions, and his only loss came by one run in his last start on Apr. 28 to Washington (2-3). The Cubs went 5-1 against the Pirates last season when Dempster was on the hill and three of the wins were at PNC Park.
Pittsburgh returns home from a 10-game road trip that watched the team go 3-7 and six of the losses came by three runs ore more. The offense struggled during this span, mustering up three runs or less in eight of the games. The Pirates hope lefthander Paul Maholm (1-2, 4.83 ERA) can stop the bleeding and he’ll be facing a Cubs lineup that has gone 4-3 against lefties this season. It should also be noted that Maholm has given up 23 earned runs in his last four appearances against the Cubs, and surprisingly Pitt has gone 2-2 in those games. The ‘over’ has gone 3-1.
The Pirates won five of their first six games at home but were trounced in their next three contests to Milwaukee (36-1). The ‘over’ has gone 4-3 in the nine games. Even though Pittsburgh’s offense is ranked third-worst (.234, 86 runs) in the majors, the team ERA (6.79) has helped keep the scoreboard operator very busy.
San Francisco (14-10, +297) at Florida (13-12, -74)
San Francisco heads to the East Coast for a quick six-game trip, which begins tonight in Florida. The Giants will lead with their ace, Tim Lincecum (4-0, 1.27 ERA), for the opener and “The Freak” has been lights out this season. He should be 5-0 but the bullpen blew a three-run lead in the team’s 7-6 extra inning loss to Philadelphia in his most recent start last Wednesday. What’s more impressive is that he’s gone 2-0 in his two road starts and he’s surrendered no earned runs in either game. Lincecum has only faced the Marlins once in his career and he pitched the Giants to a 3-2 win last season as a road favorite.
The Marlins snapped a three-game losing streak over the weekend with a pair of blowout wins over the Nationals (7-1, 9-3). The 16 runs came after the offense was held in check to six runs during the three straight setbacks. Anibel Sanchez (1-2, 4.32 ERA) doesn’t have numbers comparable to Lincecum but his last two starts (13 innings, 3 earned runs) were solid albeit against limited lineups in the Astros and Padres.
San Francisco’s offense started the season as a juggernaut, posting 68 runs in the first 11 games, which helped the ‘over’ go 7-4. Since that early explosion, the Giants have put up 40 runs in the last 13 contests and to no surprise, the ‘under’ has gone 12-1 during this span.
The Giants won four of seven against the Marlins last year, and total players should make a note that the ‘under’ went 5-1-1 in the regular season series.
Tampa Bay (18-7, +720) at Seattle (11-14, -429)
The Rays take to the road for nine straight encounters against the AL West, which starts tonight at Safeco Field against Seattle. Even though Tampa Bay went 2-2 over the weekend at home against Kansas City and its offense was held to five runs in the last three games, the club still has the best record and offense (147 runs) in the majors and a lot of the success has been away from home. Joe Maddon’s team has gone 9-1 on the road this year but keep in mind that the victories came against the Orioles (7-18), Red Sox (11-14) and White Sox (10-15).
Tampa Bay will send James Shields (3-0, 3.38 ERA) to the hill and the team has gone 4-1 in his starts this year, which includes three straight wins that was helped with run support of 26. Shields has faced the Mariners six times in his career and the Rays have gone 3-3 in those starts and five of the encounters were in Seattle. The ‘under’ has gone 5-1 during this span.
Seattle will counter with lefthander Justin Vargas (2-1, 3.60 ERA) and he’s pitched well in his last three outings (2-0, 5 earned runs), which has watched the team go 2-1 over that span. Vargas will need to have a good outing for Seattle since the team is mired in a 2-7 skid and the offense is averaging 3.7 runs per game during this drought, which includes a three-game sweep to the Rangers (0-2, 3-6, 1-3) over the weekend at home.
The Mariners won five of the eight battles against the Rays last season and the ‘over’ went 5-3 in the regular season series. Tampa owns a 4-3 ledger against southpaws this seasonComment
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Re: 5-4-10
HOT LINES
Today's Best MLB Bets
Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins (-140, 10)
The Yankees are usually ahead of the curve when wheeling and dealing, especially when it comes to their farm system.
But New York might want a do-over regarding one of the moves it made this offseason. The team sent Austin Jackson to Detroit as a portion of the deal for outfielder Curtis Granderson.
Granderson (.225, 2 HR, 7 RBI) was put on the DL yesterday while Jackson is one of the best leadoff men in the league. The rookie has reached base safely in 20 consecutive games and is hitting .395 in that span.
Jackson has at least one hit during the Tigers five-game winning streak (batting .565) and the team is 9-4 this season when its centerfielder registers a multi-hit game.
This is a perfect spot for Detroit to pounce on the Joe Mauer-less Twins and position itself atop the AL Central standings.
Pick: Detroit Tigers
San Francisco Giants at Florida Marlins (+155, 7)
Not much has changed for the Giants since last season – stellar pitching and pathetic hitting.
San Francisco will hit the road where it went 4-5 to open the season. The first three wins of that road trip came against Houston, but the G-Men went 1-5 against L.A. and San Diego where the team was 1-for-30 with RISP.
"We have to figure out a way to get some runs," manager Bruce Bochy said.
On the recent homestand, San Francisco managed a meager 3.9 runs per game but the team only needs to score a shade over that to have success. The Giants are 12-3 this season when they score at least four runs.
San Fran may only need one or two runners to cross the plate with ace Tim Lincecum on the bump Tuesday.
Lincecum has only faced Florida once in his career. He earned the victory in that game, going 7.1 innings while giving up a pair of earned runs.
Expect the Giants offensive struggles to continue down in the Sunshine State where runs may be tough to come by for both teams in this series.
Pick: UnderComment
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Re: 5-4-10
Mighty Quinn
Mighty hit with the Cardinals Monday night.
Tuesday it's the Magic. The deficit is 550 sirignanos.Comment
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Re: 5-4-10
Hondo
Hondo's Anti-Peavy Theory failed miserably last night when the Royals phoned it in at U.S. Cellular Field, causing the debt to balloon to 150 sains.
Tonight, he'll be Livan on the edge in D.C. -- 10 units on the Nats to KO Kawakami.Comment
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Re: 5-4-10
Arthur Ralph Sports
440 - 320 run 59 %
Free play Tues -140 HoustonComment
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Re: 5-4-10
SPORTS ADVISORS
TUESDAY, MAY 4
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Atlanta (4-3 SU and ATS) at Orlando (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS)
The defending Eastern Conference champion Magic continue their run for back-to-back conference titles when they open their best-of-7 semifinal series against the rival Hawks inside Amway Arena. The Magic have been idle since wrapping up a 4-0 sweep (3-1 ATS) of the Bobcats on April 26, waiting for the Hawks to complete their seven-game series against the Bucks. Atlanta completed its rally from a 3-2 series deficit by blowing out Milwaukee in Sunday’s decisive Game 7, winning 95-74 and easily cashing as an 8½-point favorite. They held the Bucks to 32.6 percent shooting and got 22 points from Sixth-Man-of-the-Year Jamal Crawford, while All-Star Al Horford chipped in 16 points and 15 rebounds. Orlando took three of four SU and ATS in the season series with the Hawks, and the Magic have won and covered in six of the last seven meetings dating to January 2009. Additionally, Orlando has won and cashed in four of five at home against the Hawks, including two January blowouts: 104-86 as a 5½-point favorite and 113-81 as a 3½-point chalk.
Atlanta is 20-24 SU (24-20 ATS) on the highway this season (1-2 SU and ATS in the playoffs), averaging 98.4 ppg on 46 percent shooting, while allowing 97.9 ppg (46.4 percent shooting). Orlando won its two first-round home games against Charlotte (1-1 ATS) to improve to 36-7 at home (25-17-1 ATS). The Magic have won nine straight (6-2-1 ATS) and 15 of their last 16 (11-4-1 ATS) inside Amway Arena. The Hawks, who were swept out of the Eastern Conference semifinals a season ago by the Cavaliers (0-3-1 ATS), are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six as a playoff ‘dog, but they’re also on ATS surges of 7-3 overall, 5-1 after a spread-cover, 11-4 against winning teams, 22-8-1 as an underdog of five to 10 ½ points and 7-3 against the Eastern Conference. The Magic are on a plethora of positive ATS runs, including 19-7-1 overall, 5-1-1 at home (all as a chalk), 21-6-1 as a favorite, 8-1 after a straight-up win and 21-6 against Eastern Conference teams. Atlanta has topped the total in four of five on the road, 16 of 21 after a straight-up win and nine of 11 on the road against teams with a winning home record, but it is on “under” runs of 4-1 after just one day off, 7-2 as a playoff underdog, 7-3 on Tuesday and 19-7 as a ‘dog of five to 10 ½ points. Orlando is on “over” runs of 4-1-1 at home and 4-1-1 after three or more days off, but is also on “under” streaks of 6-0-1 on Tuesday, 4-0 in conference semifinal games, 4-1-1 as a playoff favorite, 29-14-2 as a favorite overall and 11-5-1 against Southeast Division rivals. In this rivalry, the “under” has been the play in five straight meetings, including all four this season.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO and UNDER
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Utah (4-3 SU, 5-2 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS)
The defending NBA champion Lakers look to take a 2-0 lead over the fifth-seeded Jazz when the two square off for Game 2 of their best-of-7 Western Conference semifinal series inside the Staples Center. Los Angeles surrendered a big fourth-quarter lead in Game 1 on Sunday only to rally back in the final four minutes and score a 104-99 victory, falling just short as a seven-point chalk. Kobe Bryant led the way with 31 points and Pau Gasol added 25 points and 12 rebounds as the hot-shooting Lakers shot 53.2 percent from the floor and outrebounded the Jazz 43-28. L.A. has now won three straight playoff contests (2-1 ATS), and it is 4-0 at home in the playoffs (3-1 ATS). Meanwhile, Utah fell to 1-3 SU and ATS on the highway in the postseason. The Jazz and Lakers met in the first round of the postseason last year with Los Angeles prevailing in five games (2-3 ATS) en route to the NBA title. Additionally, the Lakers won a six-game second-round playoff series from Utah two years ago. This year, L.A. took three of the four regular-season meetings (SU and ATS), including two easy wins and covers in Hollywood, capped by a 106-92 victory on April 2 as a 4½-point favorite. Los Angeles is on a 19-6 roll against the Jazz overall (15-9-1 ATS) and it has won 15 consecutive meetings at the Staples Center (11-4 ATS). Also, despite Utah’s spread-cover in Game 1, the home team has cashed in 18 of the last 28 head-to-head clashes. Utah is 22-23 (25-18-1 ATS) on the road this season and just 5-7 (6-6 ATS) in its last 12 on the highway. Los Angeles has gone 38-7 inside Staples Center, but just 18-25-2 ATS, despite outscoring the opposition by more than eight ppg (103.5-94.8). The Jazz are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight as road ‘dogs, 4-8 ATS in their last 12 on the road against teams with winning home records and 5-17-1 ATS in their last 23 as ‘dogs of five to 10½ points, but they are on positive pointspread surges of 36-16-3 overall (5-1 last six) and 5-0 with just one day off. The Lakers are 11-6-1 ATS in their last 18 conference semifinal games, but otherwise they carry several negative pointspread trends, including 3-7 overall (all against the Western Conference), 8-18-1 as a favorite, 4-11-1 at home (all as a favorite), 7-18-2 after a day off, 5-15-1 after a straight-up win, 5-11 on Tuesday Utah is 5-1-1 “under” in its last six against Pacific Division foes, but from there it is on “over” streaks of 6-1 overall (4-0 last four), 5-1 on the road (4-0 last four), 40-19-1 as an underdog, 36-16-1 as a road ‘dog, 9-3 as a playoff pup, 7-3 on Tuesday and 5-1 after one day off. On the flip side, it’s been all “unders” for Los Angeles lately, including 12-5 at home (all as a chalk), 20-8 as a favorite, 24-10 against Northwest Division teams, 7-1 against winning teams and 4-1 in conference semifinal games. However, the Lakers have topped the total in four of their past five overall in these playoffs. Finally, these teams had stayed under the total in seven consecutive meetings – including the final three playoff contests last year – before Game 1 crept past the total. So the over has now been the play in 13 of the last 18 clashes in California.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
St. Louis (18-8) at Philadelphia (14-11)
Adam Wainwright (4-1, 2.13 ERA) goes after his fifth win on the young season when he leads the streaking Cardinals against Cole Hamels (2-2, 5.28) and the Phillies as this four-game series continues at Citizens Bank Park. The Cardinals got another strong pitching performance from rookie Jaime Garcia and stretched their winning streak to three in a row with a 6-3 victory in Monday’s series opener. Tony LaRussa’s squad, which has the best record in the National League, has won eight of nine overall and is on additional solid runs of 7-1 as a favorite and 6-0 versus N.L. East foes. However, St. Louis has dropped six of its last eight against left-handed starters and five straight on the highway against lefties. Philadelphia has now still dropped nine of its last 15 contests since starting the season 8-2, going 2-4 at home during this stretch. The Phillies remain on positive runs of 35-18 against the N.L. Central, 11-5 versus right-handed starters and 7-1 at home against righties.
These teams faced off just five times last year, with the Phillies winning four of the five contests, and going back to 2008, Philadelphia has won eight of the last 11 series clashes, going 4-2 at home. In last year’s four wins over St. Louis, the Phillies tallied 39 runs. Wainwright is coming off his 11th consecutive quality start – at least six innings pitched while allowing three earned runs or fewer – as he held the Braves to three runs in six innings en route to Thursday’s 10-4 home victory. The outing actually ended a string of five straight starts in which Wainwright pitched at least seven innings and gave up two earned runs or fewer. Going back to the middle of June, the right-hander has had 24 quality starts in his last 25 trips to the mound, allowing two earned runs or fewer in 22 of those 25 contests. With Wainwright starting, the Redbirds are on impressive upticks of 37-15 overall, 20-6 on the road, 15-5 against the N.L. East, 25-6 versus winning teams and 5-1 on Tuesday. He’s made two road starts this year, going 1-1 with a 2.40 ERA, as he gave up two runs in each of contest (6-3 win at Cincinnati; 2-0 loss at San Francisco). Wainwright’s worst start of 2009 came in a home game against the Phillies, as he got torched for seven runs (all earned) on nine hits and two walks in six innings, losing 10-7. However, in three starts against Philly prior to that – all in 2007 – he gave up a total of three runs and 17 hits in 21 innings (1.29 ERA), and the Cardinals won all three games by a combined margin of 20-6. That includes a 10-2 win in Wainwright’s only previous start at Citizens Bank Park (he pitched seven shutout innings). Hamels’ struggles continued at San Francisco on Wednesday as he gave up four runs on nine hits and four walks in six innings. Though Hamels did strikeout 10, he left trailing 4-1, but the Phillies rallied with two outs in the ninth inning and prevailed 7-6 in 11 innings. Still, over his past two starts, Hamels has allowed 10 runs (all earned) in 12 innings, and unlike Wainwright, the lefty has just one quality outing in his last 12 starts (playoffs included). Philadelphia has won 21 of Hamels’ last 29 starts against N.L. Central competition and four of his last five Tuesday outings, but it has dropped five of his last seven starts at Citizens Bank. This year at home, Hamels is 1-1 with a 3.95 ERA in two games. Against the Cardinals, he’s 2-2 with a 4.22 ERA in six career starts. St. Louis brings a slew of “under” trends into this contest, including 8-2-1 overall, 8-3 on the road, 13-3-1 versus winning teams, 25-10-2 against left-handed starters and 7-3-1 when Wainwright starts on the highway. On the flip side, the Cardinals have topped the total in four straight Tuesday contests, and it’s been all “overs” for Philadelphia, including 36-17-2 overall, 16-6-2 at home, 8-3 against N.L. Central teams, 7-3 as an underdog, 7-1-1 with Hamels starting and 3-1-1 with Hamels toiling at home. Finally, the over is 13-7-2 in the last 22 Phillies-Cardinals clashes at Citizens Bank Park. Also, three of Wainwright’s four career starts against Philadelphia and three of Hamels’ last four outings against St. Louis have gone over the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ST. LOUIS and OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Detroit (16-11) at Minnesota (17-9)
The Tigers’ Dontrelle Willis (1-1, 3.75) tries to build off a strong start in his last outing when he toes the rubber at Target Field, while the Twins are set to counter with Nick Blackburn (1-1, 6.85). Michael Cuddyer hit a three-run home run to highlight a four-run first inning as Minnesota cruised past Detroit 10-3 on Monday. The Twins have seven of 10 in their new ballpark, and they’re on additional impressive runs of 36-16 overall, 17-5 at home (including the Metrodome), 28-11 against A.L. Central foes, 23-6 as a favorite, 13-5 versus southpaws, 39-15 at home against lefties and 23-6 on Tuesday. The Tigers had a season-high five-game winning streak halted Monday, but they’re still 9-4 in their last 13 contests (4-3 on the road). Additionally, they’re on stretches of 7-4 against division rivals, 4-1 versus right-handed starters and 4-2 as an underdog, but Detroit has also now lost 30 of 44 as a road ‘dog. These division rivals met last week in Motown, with the Twins winning the opener 2-0 and Detroit coming back to score victories of 11-6 and 3-0, so this year’s season series is now even. Last year, Minnesota took 11 of the final 17 meetings with the Tigers, including a 6-5, 12-inning home victory in a one-game playoff to determine the division champ. Also, Monday’s contest extended Detroit’s misery in Minneapolis, as the Tigers are now 28-63 in their last 91 games in Minnesota. Ten days after a tough-luck 2-0 loss at the Angels in which he gave up both runs in six innings, Willis was even better on Thursday against these Twins. He scattered four hits and two walks while striking out six in a six scoreless innings, leading Detroit to a 3-0 home win. Willis has pitched at least six innings and surrendered a total of four runs in three of his four starts in 2010. Detroit has won four straight games with Willis starting against A.L. Central rivals, but it has also lost seven of his last nine as a visitor. However, his first two road performances of this season were identically solid: six innings pitched and two runs allowed in each contest. Also, prior to Thursday, Willis’ only previous career start against the Twins came last May in the Metrodome, and he gave up four runs in 4 2/3 innings, getting a no-decision in the Tigers’ 14-10 loss. Blackburn hasn’t been on the mound since April 24 when he allowed six runs (five earned) in 4 1/3 innings at Kansas City. A week earlier, the Royals roughed him up at Target Field, scoring five runs in five innings. Despite those two poor performances, though, the Twins found a way to win both games by scores of 9-7 and 6-5. Minnesota is 7-2 in Blackburn’s last nine trips to the hill, 4-1 in his last five at home and 6-1 in his last seven against the A.L. Central.
Blackburn dominated the Tigers in his final two starts against them in 2009, giving up just three runs (two earned) in 16 innings (1.13 ERA), and Minnesota won both contests 6-2 (home) and 3-2 (road). Still, Blackburn is just 2-3 with a 3.95 ERA in seven lifetime appearances (six starts) against Detroit.
The Tigers are on “over” streaks of 5-0-1 on the road, 5-1-1 as an underdog, 4-0-1 as a road pup, 6-2 versus A.L. Central competition and 4-1 on Tuesday. Also, the over is 5-1-1 in Willis’ last seven starts against divisional foes, but seven of his last 10 starts overall have stayed low. The Twins carry “under” trends of 7-2 versus southpaw starters, 8-2-1 at home against lefties, 4-1 when Blackburn starts on Tuesday and 17-6-1 when Blackburn pitches on grass. Conversely, Blackburn’s last four home starts have jumped over the total, as have his last four against the A.L. Central. Finally, though Monday’s contest soared over the posted total, the under was 4-1-1 in the last six Metrodome meetings between these two in 2009, and the under has cashed in each of Blackburn’s last five starts versus Detroit.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTAComment
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Re: 5-4-10
CAPPERS ACCESS
Hawks
Jazz
CardinalsComment
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Re: 5-4-10
Joe Wiz's Daily Free Pick
Under 9 runs bet. Milwaukee and DodgersComment
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Re: 5-4-10
bs picks 4/4
braves -110 ml
phillies +115 ml
toronto -135 ml
yankees -1.5 -120Comment
Comment