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Re: 5-4-10
STEPHEN NOVER
Tuesday winners
75 DIME Orlando Magic
50 DIME LA Lakers
STEPHEN NOVER
Tuesday winners
75 DIME Orlando Magic
50 DIME LA Lakers
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Re: 5-4-10
jeff benton tuesday
Tuesday's Action 20 Dime: L.A. LAKERS
10 Dime: ST. LOUIS CARDINALS ... NOTE: List Adam Wainwright as the Cardinals' starting pitcher. If Wainwright does NOT start, this play is VOID!
Lakers
I said it yesterday in my analysis on the Celtics, and I’ll say it again here with respect to the Lakers: nothing changes. Even though – like Boston at Cleveland in Game 1 – L.A. barely missed getting the spread-cover against the Jazz in their series opener, it doesn’t change the fact that the Lakers SHOULD have covered that number in Game 1. And to be getting L.A., which continues to have huge matchup edges against Utah, at a reduced price in Game 2 is a gift I’m not going to pass up.
Look, if you watched Game 1 you know I was spot-on with my analysis that the Jazz just cannot handle the Lakers’ size up front. Pau Gasol had 25 points, 12 rebounds, four assists and five blocks in the 104-99 win, while Andrew Bynum (eight points, 10 boards in less than 25 minutes of action) and Lamar Odom (nine points, 12 rebounds in 31 minutes) nearly had double-doubles, as L.A. had a 14-point lead at one point in the first half and was still up double-digits in the third quarter.
L.A.’s problem – and it’s been a problem the entire playoffs – has been its bench. The big lead evaporated when Gasol and Kobe Bryant (31 points) went to the sidelines. And beyond Odom, four other Lakers contributed just 13 points in 35 minutes of action, and when those four players were on the court, L.A. got outscored by 13 points. After the game, Gasol, Kobe and Lakers coach Phil Jackson pretty much called out the bench in the media and told them to step up. I expect a positive response to that challenge tonight.
I also expect Jackson and Bryant to make the necessary adjustments to at least slow down Jazz point guard Deron Williams (24 points, 8 assists in Game 1). You’re not going to stop Williams as he’s just too good of a player (and he’s been outstanding this entire postseason), but you can bet the All-Star will see some different looks tonight.
Finally, even though the Jazz got inside the number in Game 1, they still lost for the 19th time in the last 25 meetings with the Lakers. They’ve still lost nine of the last 12 playoff games to the Lakers. They’ve still lost 15 straight games in Los Angeles. And they’re still just 9-15-1 ATS during this 25-game stretch of games with the Lakers, including 4-11 ATS in the Staples Center.
What’s more, Sunday’s result was only the second time in those 19 losses to L.A. that the Jazz fell by fewer than seven points. And it was just the fourth time in those 19 contests that the Lakers failed to win by double digits.
One last thing: Do you know how many times in their 6-19 funk against Los Angeles that the Jazz covered the spread in back-to-back meetings? Twice. You know how many times they’ve covered in consecutive games in L.A. during this stretch? Never. In fact, you have to go back to the 2004-05 season for the last time Utah got the cash in back-to-back visits to Staples. And in the last two playoff meetings with the Jazz, the Lakers won Game 2 at home by near identical scores: 120-110 in 2008, 119-109 last year.
Big-time statement game from the world champs here. Lay the chalk and look for an easy double-digit win!
Cardinals
First off, let’s face facts: The Cardinals (18-8) are a better team the than the Phillies (14-11) right now. St. Louis is better on the road (8-5) than Philly is at home (5-5), and the Cardinals’ pitching (2.52 starters’ ERA; 2.74 bullpen ERA) is vastly superior to the Phillies’ (4.11 starters’ ERA; 4.46 bullpen ERA).
Tonight is another case of a massive pitching mismatch. Oh sure, the names on the backs of the jerseys – Wainwright and Hamels – suggest this is an even contest on the mound, but the numbers suggest otherwise.
Wainwright is 4-1 with a 2.13 ERA; Hamels is 2-2 with a 5.28 ERA. Wainwright has allowed 34 baserunners and one home run in 38 innings; Hamels has allowed 45 baserunners and seven home runs in 30 2/3 innings.
Wainwright has pitched at least six innings and allowed three earned runs or less in 11 straight starts since last season, and even better than that, he’s had 24 quality starts in his last 25 games since the middle of last June, giving up two earned runs or fewer 22 times.
Hamels has just one quality start in his last 12 trips to the mound, and during this stretch, the lefty has given up at least four runs eight times and pitched less than six innings seven times.
The Cardinals have won 37 of Wainwright’s last 52 starts overall, 20 of his last 26 starts on the road and 15 of his last 18 against N.L. East teams. The Phillies are 2-5 in Hamels’ last seven starts at home.
Lastly, I look for Wainwright to have a LITTLE extra motivation tonight. That’s because after dominating the Phillies in three starts in 2007 (he went 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA), he got knocked around the yard exactly one year ago by Philadelphia, giving up seven runs in six innings of a 10-7 home loss. It was Wainwright’s worst start of 2009, and you KNOW he hasn’t forgotten it.
Throw in the fact that Hamels has allowed 15 runs (14 earned) in his last five starts against St. Louis spanning 25 innings (5.04 ERA), and the Cardinals offer tremendous value tonight at this dirt-cheap price.Comment
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Re: 5-4-10
Evan Altemus
3 Units Chicago Cubs -156
I normally don't like making selections with this high of a favorite. However, it's close enough to my -150 guideline for me to make a play here. The Pirates pitching staff has been horrendous lately. Their bullpen has an ERA of 5.83 this season. Pittsburgh's starter Paul Maholm has pitched very poorly against the Cubs, and Chicago hitter Alfonso Soriano has been extremely hot lately. Cubs starter Ryan Dempster has pitched very well against Pittsburgh, and he has traditionally pitched better on the road than at home anyway. Chicago also dominated Pittsburgh last season both at home and on the road, and the Pirates are coming off of a rough travel spot after just coming back from a long West Coast road trip. Look for Chicago to get the win.Comment
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Re: 5-4-10
Marc Lawrence
3* Magic -9Comment
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Re: 5-4-10
Erin Rynning
LA Lakers under 199Comment
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Re: 5-4-10
Jeff Benton
20 Dime - LA Lakers
10 Dime - SL Cardinals
Lakers
I said it yesterday in my analysis on the Celtics, and I’ll say it again here with respect to the Lakers: nothing changes. Even though – like Boston at Cleveland in Game 1 – L.A. barely missed getting the spread-cover against the Jazz in their series opener, it doesn’t change the fact that the Lakers SHOULD have covered that number in Game 1. And to be getting L.A., which continues to have huge matchup edges against Utah, at a reduced price in Game 2 is a gift I’m not going to pass up.
Look, if you watched Game 1 you know I was spot-on with my analysis that the Jazz just cannot handle the Lakers’ size up front. Pau Gasol had 25 points, 12 rebounds, four assists and five blocks in the 104-99 win, while Andrew Bynum (eight points, 10 boards in less than 25 minutes of action) and Lamar Odom (nine points, 12 rebounds in 31 minutes) nearly had double-doubles, as L.A. had a 14-point lead at one point in the first half and was still up double-digits in the third quarter.
L.A.’s problem – and it’s been a problem the entire playoffs – has been its bench. The big lead evaporated when Gasol and Kobe Bryant (31 points) went to the sidelines. And beyond Odom, four other Lakers contributed just 13 points in 35 minutes of action, and when those four players were on the court, L.A. got outscored by 13 points. After the game, Gasol, Kobe and Lakers coach Phil Jackson pretty much called out the bench in the media and told them to step up. I expect a positive response to that challenge tonight.
I also expect Jackson and Bryant to make the necessary adjustments to at least slow down Jazz point guard Deron Williams (24 points, 8 assists in Game 1). You’re not going to stop Williams as he’s just too good of a player (and he’s been outstanding this entire postseason), but you can bet the All-Star will see some different looks tonight.
Finally, even though the Jazz got inside the number in Game 1, they still lost for the 19th time in the last 25 meetings with the Lakers. They’ve still lost nine of the last 12 playoff games to the Lakers. They’ve still lost 15 straight games in Los Angeles. And they’re still just 9-15-1 ATS during this 25-game stretch of games with the Lakers, including 4-11 ATS in the Staples Center.
What’s more, Sunday’s result was only the second time in those 19 losses to L.A. that the Jazz fell by fewer than seven points. And it was just the fourth time in those 19 contests that the Lakers failed to win by double digits.
One last thing: Do you know how many times in their 6-19 funk against Los Angeles that the Jazz covered the spread in back-to-back meetings? Twice. You know how many times they’ve covered in consecutive games in L.A. during this stretch? Never. In fact, you have to go back to the 2004-05 season for the last time Utah got the cash in back-to-back visits to Staples. And in the last two playoff meetings with the Jazz, the Lakers won Game 2 at home by near identical scores: 120-110 in 2008, 119-109 last year.
Big-time statement game from the world champs here. Lay the chalk and look for an easy double-digit win!
Cardinals
First off, let’s face facts: The Cardinals (18-8) are a better team the than the Phillies (14-11) right now. St. Louis is better on the road (8-5) than Philly is at home (5-5), and the Cardinals’ pitching (2.52 starters’ ERA; 2.74 bullpen ERA) is vastly superior to the Phillies’ (4.11 starters’ ERA; 4.46 bullpen ERA).
Tonight is another case of a massive pitching mismatch. Oh sure, the names on the backs of the jerseys – Wainwright and Hamels – suggest this is an even contest on the mound, but the numbers suggest otherwise.
Wainwright is 4-1 with a 2.13 ERA; Hamels is 2-2 with a 5.28 ERA. Wainwright has allowed 34 baserunners and one home run in 38 innings; Hamels has allowed 45 baserunners and seven home runs in 30 2/3 innings.
Wainwright has pitched at least six innings and allowed three earned runs or less in 11 straight starts since last season, and even better than that, he’s had 24 quality starts in his last 25 games since the middle of last June, giving up two earned runs or fewer 22 times.
Hamels has just one quality start in his last 12 trips to the mound, and during this stretch, the lefty has given up at least four runs eight times and pitched less than six innings seven times.
The Cardinals have won 37 of Wainwright’s last 52 starts overall, 20 of his last 26 starts on the road and 15 of his last 18 against N.L. East teams. The Phillies are 2-5 in Hamels’ last seven starts at home.
Lastly, I look for Wainwright to have a LITTLE extra motivation tonight. That’s because after dominating the Phillies in three starts in 2007 (he went 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA), he got knocked around the yard exactly one year ago by Philadelphia, giving up seven runs in six innings of a 10-7 home loss. It was Wainwright’s worst start of 2009, and you KNOW he hasn’t forgotten it.
Throw in the fact that Hamels has allowed 15 runs (14 earned) in his last five starts against St. Louis spanning 25 innings (5.04 ERA), and the Cardinals offer tremendous value tonight at this dirt-cheap price.Comment
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Re: 5-4-10
Tim Trushel
20* Red Sox UnderComment
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Re: 5-4-10
ATS Lock Club
3 Units Jazz +6
5 Units Padres
4 Units Blue JaysComment
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Re: 5-4-10
Nelly
Jazz / Lakers Under 199.5
Both Utah and Los Angeles have been ‘over’ teams so far in the playoffs but the ‘under’ had hit in seven straight meetings between these teams before sneaking just ‘over’ in game 1. The ‘under’ is 12-5 in the last 17 home games for Los Angeles and the Lakers do not get enough credit defensively. Los Angeles allowed just 96 points per game for the season and the ‘under’ was 25-19-1 in Los Angeles this year. Los Angeles had some defensive lapses in meaningless games to close the regular season so the numbers should actually be even stronger towards the ‘under’. Los Angeles had a very efficient offensive game in game 1 and the defensive intensity should be turned up a notch on both sides. Utah has scored 100 points against the Lakers just once in the last eight meetings between these teams and there has been curious adjustments on this total line, giving more credence to the possibility of a low scoring gameComment
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Re: 5-4-10
Stardust Sports Picks
Play Play San Francisco (-175) over Florida (Top Play)
Play Chicago Cubs (-155) over PittsburghComment
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Re: 5-4-10
INSIDER ANGLES
Now we are normally not fans of laying this much vigorish on a total, but Petco Park is the most pitcher-friendly stadium in the National League, and with the red-hot Wade LeBlanc going for the San Diego Padres, we expect runs to be at a premium when they host the Colorado Rockies on Tuesday.
LeBlanc has a microscopic 0.52 ERA in three starts for the Padres, tossing 12.1 scoreless innings in his last two starts after allowing just one run in five innings in his seasonal debut. He has also shown great command thus far, posting 16 strikeouts against just four walks. Perhaps most impressive is the fact that he allowed only three hits in six scoreless innings in a hitter’s park at Cincinnati, so he should continue his success at home in this spacious stadium.
Granted, Greg Smith has struggled for the most part for Colorado, but most of those struggles have come in the altitude of home. The last time Smith pitched on the road, he allowed only two runs and five hits in 5.1 innings at Atlanta, and like most pitchers he too should improve while pitching in this park.
The southpaw also has the advantage of pitching against a San Diego lineup that has never faced him before, which should give Smith the advantage the first time through the lineup. If he should be in need of relief, the Colorado bullpen has been a strong suit for the team this season, posting a nice 2.44 ERA.
In fact, the San Diego bullpen also has a fine 2.62 ERA, so late tack-on runs should be kept to a minimum here, which is crucial for low totals like this one. Thus, do not look for these clubs to exceed seven total runs scored.
MLB Tuesday Pick: Rockies, Padres Under 7.5Comment
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