5/7/10

[spook]

Re: 5/7/10

DWAYNE BRYANT
NBA BEST BET: Cleveland Cavaliers -1

Some teams just step up after a loss. Cleveland is one of those teams. If you throw out the last few games of the regular season (when the Cavs already had the #1 seed locked up), Cleveland only lost back-to-back games THREE times all season, including the playoffs. And one of those three instances occured in the first two games of the season. Suffice it to say that Cleveland knows how to bounce back from defeat.

But Cleveland wasn't just defeated in their last game; they were completely embarrassed on their home floor by these Celtics, 104-86. Cleveland's past performance suggests we can expect a bounce-back by King James & company tonight. The Cavs are 23-7 ATS in their last 30 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points, and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a double-digit loss at home.

These teams have had three days to rest up and get ready for yet another physical game. If you read game previews and listen to sports talk on TV or radio, then you hear about how much both teams needed these three days off and how it will help both teams. But truth be told, only one of these teams performs well when coming off a long layoff. The Cavaliers are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Conversely, the Celtics are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Looks like the time off may help both teams heal, but it's clearly the Cavs who play better in this situation.

Bottom line: The Cavaliers are 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings and 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Boston. Cleveland is coming off a game in which they were embarrassed on their home court and have now lost the home court advantage in this series. The Cavs play much better than Boston on a 3 or more day layoff, and they've shown a penchant for bouncing back off a loss. LeBron will be on a major mission tonight and that mission is to take back the home court advantage and regain control of this series. Past history tells me it's not too wise to bet against the Cavs in this situation. I'll take Cleveland tonight.

[spook]

Re: 5/7/10

NICK PARSONS
ULTIMATE SHOWDOWN
8* Cleveland Cavaliers -1

For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the visitors:

Even though the Cav's won and covered in Game 1, Cleveland has had to play catch up through most of this series; I expect the Cav's to play their best game of this series tonight though.

Cleveland head coach Mike Brown: "For 48 minutes, we didn't play with a sense of urgency.

"Nothing is going to be given to us. We have to fight. If we expect to win this series, we need to bring more of a sense of urgency. We'll see what we're made of in Game 3."

Keep in mind that Cleveland is in fact 11-4 ATS its last 15 vs. Boston; also 7-3 ATS its last 10 on the road vs. the C's.

On the other side of the court: One of the biggest things that the Celtics have had to deal with all year is inconstancy and "letdowns"; I believe this team suffers both tonight.

Although both teams are banged up, the Celtics are more so and as this series continues, I believe this will be a factor for this club.

And this is a spot that Boston has struggled in all year long; 10-11 ATS as an underdog; 2-6 ATS when playing with three or more days of rest; 2-6 ATS off an upset win as an underdog.

Bottom line: Expect Lebron's supporting cast to finally make an appearance tonight; look for CLEVELAND to improve to 9-5 ATS this year off an upset loss as a favorite and for Boston to fall to 9-17 ATS this season after a win by ten points or more; *8* "ULTIMATE SHOWDOWN" CAVALIERS

[spook]

Re: 5/7/10

PRIMETIME SPORTS ADVISORS

25 Units Milwaukee w/Gallardo
20 Units KC/Texas Under 8

[spook]

Re: 5/7/10

BOOKIE MONSTER
FREE PLAY
Cleveland Indians +100

[spook]

Re: 5/7/10

BOB BALFE
Chicago White Sox (-112)

Buehrle/Marcum

Mark Buehrle has yet to get his stuff going this season, while Marcum has, in my opinion, overachieved. This is a great value with the White Sox being at home with the better and more experienced pitcher on the mound. Take Chicago

[spook]

Re: 5/7/10

Power Play of the Day

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Boston Celtics +1

Power Play Wins

[spook]

Re: 5/7/10

BILLY COLEMAN
3* Baltimore/Minnesota Under 8- RL Millwood & Liriano

[spook]

Re: 5/7/10

EDDIE ROMAN
15000 DIME Cleveland Cavs -1

[spook]

Re: 5/7/10

WIN OR LOSE SPORTS BETTING

Major League Baseball
Rot# Team Spread Line Wager
902 PHL ML -130 $8
905 STL -1.5 -135 $15
905 STL ML -220 $10
913 MIL ML -120 $16
915 COLO ML +155 $10
921 KC ML +110 $10
924 MINN ML -230 $23 (postponed)
926 CWS ML -106 $20
926 Tor / CWS UN 8.5 -125 $16 (1 PM)
929 LAA ML +118 $12 (1 PM)

National Hockey League
Rot# Team Spread Line Wager
2 PHL ML -120 $12
3 CHI ML +125 $7

National Basketball Association
Rot# Team Spread Line Wager
717 CLE -1 -103 $12

[spook]

Re: 5/7/10

PAPAYAGANG PICKS
PICKS OF THE DAY

MLB
20* Milwaukee/Arizona over 9.5
20* San Diego Padres ML
20* San Francisco Giants ML
20* Detroit Tigers ML
NBA
20* San Antonio Spurs -6.0
NHL
20* Philadelphia Flyers ML

[spook]

Re: 5/7/10

TRACE ADAMS
ADDED

500* - BOSTON CELTICS

They call Glen Davis the Big Baby? Maybe they should bestow that nickname on LeBron James, or at least call him the Drama King. I mean, I am sure the elbow hurts, but the degree in which they are talking about this is absolutely ridiculous.

Regardless, Cleveland really hasn't played all that well through the first 2 games at home, getting outplayed in 6 of the 8 quarters contested. I don't think things will change this evening on the road, as Boston has now wrested home court advantage away from the # 1 seed, and the extra days off are sure to benefit the older Celtics more than they benefit the Cavaliers.

The Celtics are a perfect 3-0 both straight up, and against the spread at home this postseason, and I expect the perfection to continue tonight.

Rajon Rondo has become an elite player, and it is clear the Cavaliers do not have an answer for him. I trusted Mo Williams to step up in Game 2 and deliver, and boy did he ever, shooting 1-for-9 from the floor. I am sorry, but I just don't trust the Cleveland supporting cast, and I sure don't expect LeBron to be at 100% this evening either.

Rasheed Wallace gave Doc Rivers and the Boston bench a big lift in Game 2, I am banking on another night going Sheed's way, as the "ball don't lie" and the C's take the 2-1 series lead.

500? - Boston Celtics

[spook]

Re: 5/7/10

THE DUKE SPORTS

Cleveland Over (192') for 2.5 Units

Boston is getting great scoring balance on account of Rondo finding the open man as a matter of fact, Rondo's 19 assists in Game 2 spearheaded 6 double digit scorers, including Rasheed Wallace off the bench. And no matter how good of defense the Cavaliers play, it is difficult to contain that kind of offensive balance when Boston is in nice rhythm. Tonight, we'll look for more of the same offensive firepower from Boston, but we'll also look for a better offensive game from Cleveland. In Game 2, the Cavaliers' backcourt (Parker, Williams, West) was held to 4 of 20. We'll look for better production out of them tonight; moreover, Shaq and Varejao (back) should overcome their sluggishness to be better offensive contributors. The Cavaliers are 5-1 O/U after allowing 100+, 5-1 O/U in their last 6 on the road, and 6-2 O/U with 3+ days rest. Boston is on an 11-5 O/U run and 5-0 O/U when their opponent allows 100+. This series has gone 5-1 O/U in its last 6 in Boston. "Over" the call.

[spook]

Re: 5/7/10

DAVID MALINSKY

4* NY METS/SAN FRANCISCO OVER

6’s are very rare in Major League Baseball; so much so that we can not even remember the last one. So what does that have to do with this game? If Jonathan Sanchez and Mike Pelphrey are at a “7” on a night in which the San Francisco bullpen brings major fatigue ratings, just where the hell would a Tim Lincecum/Johan Santana hook-up be? So on a pleasant evening near Flushing Bay with a mild wind favoring the hitters, we are in play here.

Sanchez is who he is, a guy with fantastic stuff that is difficult to read and hit, which creates a major sex appeal factor in the marketplace. But command is another matter entirely, and he is off of back-to-back games in which his PPI charts got into the 20’s. Prior to this season his career tallies on the road were a 12-19/4.97, and with the only appearance as a visitor so far coming from the favorable mound in Petco, those past confidence issues are absolutely in play. His high pitch counts are a particular problem from the visitors locker room, and that is an issue for the Giant bullpen, which has Brian Wilson off of three straight games, and Guillermo Mota, Jeremy Affeldt, Sergio Romo and Don Runzler all working two of three in the Florida series.

Like Sanchez, we also see good early numbers in the 4-1/2.40 of Michael Pelfrey, but there has been a lot of baseball geometry involved. There is nothing in his peripherals to suggest that those base numbers are a break-out from the 28-32/4.58 for his career coming in, but when you strand 80 percent of your base-runners in the early going it can create a misleading impression. Like Sanchez he also has back-to-back games of more than 20 PPI, and the Phillies rocked him for six runs on eight hits over only four innings on Saturday, with complaints of a shoulder problem being issued since then. We do not see anything more than just average stuff from him, and average does not bring you into this price range.

[spook]

Re: 5/7/10

JOSEPH D'AMICO

St Louis Cardinals -202

Despite dropping 3 straight, St. Louis is still clearly the cream of the crop in the N.L. Central. The Card’s won 6 of their L7 before losing 3 to the Phillie’s. Talking about streaks, the Pirate’s won 3 in a row over the deplorable Cub’s. If you check out the Central Division, you will see that outside of St. Louis, not a single team has more wins than losses. Make no mistake of it, but beating Chicago 3-0 in the series isn’t anything for Pitt to celebrate over. St. Louis has Chris Carpenter throwing today. He is 4-0 with a 2.84 ERA on the season. In his career, the right-hander is an astounding 11-1 with a 2.27 ERA when starting against Pittsburgh. On top of his success over the Pirate’s, Carpenter can rest easy behind one of baseball’s most dangerous lineups. St. Louis has six slugger’s with between 11-25 RBI’s. Leading the way is Albert Pujols with a .327 B.A., 7 HR’s, and 25 RBI’s. They face a Pittsburgh squad that is averaging just 3.7 RPG and don’t have a consistent batter in the bunch. The Pirate’s send Zach Duke to the bump. Duke is 2-3 with a 6.09 ERA TY and 4-5 when starting against St. Louis in his career. The Card’s are 11-0 in Carpenter’s L11 starts vs. the Pirate’s, 55-25 their L80 games played in Pittsburgh, and 29-8 their L37 in Game 1 of a series. The Pirate’s are 2-7 in Duke’s L9 starts vs. the Card’s and 0-5 their L5 as a home ‘dog of +201 or higher. Take St. Louis.

[spook]

Re: 5/7/10

JAMES PATRICK SPORTS

Play: San Antonio (-6 -110)

Suns vs. Spurs 9:30 p.m. est. ESPN (Phoenix leads series 2-0)
The Spurs return home off a pair of losses at Phoenix to open this series and San Antonio is 21-7-1 ATS at home off a SU and ATS playoff loss, including 5-0 SU and ATS In Game Three of a series. San Antonio is a solid (26-16) ATS on their home court this season, (5-1) ATS in Friday contests and the home team is (5-1) ATS in the series. Home Teams with triple revenge, (three straight losses to an opponent), are (95-51) ATS for a solid (65.1 %) in winners and HC Greg Popovich is (222-185) ATS after (1) or more consecutive losses as HC of the San Antonio Spurs. Spurs get back into this series with home win here.

3* #720 San Antonio Spurs