5/7/10

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Re: 5/7/10

THE GOLD SHEET

Play: Boston (+1 -110)

Boston has not been kind to Cleveland over the past few years. The Cavs are just 1-10 straight-up in last 11 visits to TD Garden. The injury to LeBron James' elbow has definitely affected his game, and although we expect him to play through it, it's another factor favoring the Celtics. Boston has turned its big three into a big four thus far in the postseason, with the arrival of point guard Rajon Rondo as a force. TAKE BOSTON

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Re: 5/7/10

CHIP CHIRIMBES

Play: N.Y. Yankees (ML +100)

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Re: 5/7/10

GOODFELLA
ADDED
CINCINNATI REDS -105

Listed Pitchers (Bailey vs Silva)

Reds are hot, having won 7 of their L/10 games coming into tonight---They had yesterday OFF & they are coming off taking 2 of 3 at HOME over the Mets---The Cubs just got swept 3 games by the Pirates AT Pittsburgh---including yesterday's 11-1 beatdown--Cubs starter Wells--lasted just 2 innings and the Cubs bullpen threw 6 innings last night--So we have a REDS club who not only had the day off yesterday & have been at HOME the whole week--but we have a Cubs club who had to go their bullpen in the 3rd inning yesterday---Cubs aso scored a combined 5 runs in the 3 game series--and they are now (6-10) on the road this season-- Silva is nursing a injury right now--The Cubs had originally pushed Silva's start to Saturday as he deals with a sore right wrist, but he will pitch in his normal spot in the rotation--Silva was lit up his last start AT Arizona--5IP, 5 ERm 8 hits, 3 HR's allowed---while Bailey is coming off a rock solid start vs the Cardinals--6 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 7 hits, 3 BB, 6 K's---I really see the REDS at HOME in this spot as great VALUE at his number--& I look for them to stay hot & get the home win tonight. Take the Reds.

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Re: 5/7/10

JEFF BENTON
Friday's Action

20 DIME: SAN ANTONIO SPURS
5 DIME: CINCINNATI REDS

NOTE: List Homer Bailey as Cincinnati's starting pitcher. If Bailey does NOT start, this play is VOID!

Spurs

I got burned by going against Phoenix in Game 2. But that’s not stopping me from doing the exact same thing in Game 3. The fact of the matter is the San Antonio outplayed the Suns in many respects on Wednesday, with one big exception: The Spurs were whistled for a ridiculous 31 fouls – hardly a surprise when you realize that old-man Joey Crawford was one of the whistle-wielders, and he’s the biggest “homer” ref in the NBA. Those 31 Spurs fouls contributed to 37 free throws for the Suns (29 of which they made). By comparison, San Antonio got to the foul line just 22 times (making just 15).

It doesn’t take a math wizard to see that the Suns outscored the Spurs by 14 points at the charity stripe, which is how you win a game by eight points when you get outshot 50.6 percent to 42.4 percent. And it wasn’t just the number of fouls that killed the Spurs in Game 2, it was who accumulated them and when. Get this: Tim Duncan picked up his fourth foul with 9½ minutes to play in the third quarter, forcing him to the bench for an extended stretch when he otherwise would’ve been on the court (he finished with five fouls); George Hill, who had strong shooting night, fouled out; and Manu Ginobili (who went just 2-for-8 from the field) was tagged with five fouls.

Suffice it say, with San Antonio back in its own building tonight, there’s no doubt in my mind that the shoe will be on the other foot tonight and the Spurs will be the beneficiaries of some hometown calls. Regardless, you KNOW the Spurs’ crowd will be well-lathered tonight, just as they were in helping their team to three victories over the Mavericks in the opening round.

Yes, Phoenix has now won three straight against San Antonio by margins of 11, 9 and 8 points. However, all three of those games were played in the desert. In fact, the home team has held serve in this rivalry in six straight meetings (going 5-1 ATS). Also, get this: These teams squared off in the postseason in 2003, 2005, 2007 and 2008. And in all four series, the Spurs took Game 3 – including three double-digit wins – en route to winning the series.

Despite failing to cover in the first two games, the Spurs are on still ATS runs of 12-3-1 as a favorite, 14-6 in this price range (5 to 10½ points) and an impressive 21-6-3 as a favorite in the playoffs.

Bottom line: I still believe the Spurs are the better team in this series, and after falling apart in the fourth quarter in Games 1 and 2 in Phoenix, I expect San Antonio – guided by veteran leaders like Duncan, Parker and Ginobili – to play a full 48 minutes tonight and play with more passion and intensity than they have in any game this postseason.

The Spurs get back in this series by winning and winning BIG, something in the neighborhood of 113-91. Lay the chalk with complete and total confidence.


Reds

The Chicago Cubs are coming off a series in Pittsburgh where they got swept by the lowly Pirates and scored a grand total of 5 runs in the process, including last night’s ugly 11-1 loss. The same Pirates who in their previous home series got swept by the Brewers and outscored 36-1.

Think about that: Facing two division rivals at home, the Pirates got dumped 36-1 in one three-game series, but swept the other one by a combined score of 18-5.

If that doesn’t tell you what a disaster the Cubs are, I don’t know what would. And the reason Chicago is struggling is it can’t hit. Their #3 and #4 hitters – Derek Lee and Aramis Ramirez – are batting .217 and .148, respectively. In the Pirates’ series, Ramirez went 1-for-11; Lee was 2-for-11. And if you take last week’s four-game series at Wrigley Field – where the wind was howling out to left and center field which contributed greatly to scores of 13-5, 11-5, 7-5 and 10-5 – here are the Cubs’ recent run totals: 1, 2, 2, 2, 1. In fact, Chicago has tallied four runs or fewer in 15 of 29 games, scoring three runs or fewer 13 times.

As for the Reds, they’ve been playing decent ball, winning seven of their last 10 games, including taking two of three against the surging Mets this week, with both wins coming in walk-off fashion in extra innings. That’s been a trend this year for Cincinnati, which has had a flair for the dramatic with nine of its 13 wins coming in its final at-bat. That includes two wins over the Cubs in a season-opening series in Cincinnati last month.

Regarding the pitching matchup tonight, I know the stats show the edge goes to Carlos Silva (2-0, 2.90 ERA) over Homer Bailey (0-1, 6.04). But those numbers are skewed a bit because it’s still early in the season. There’s little chance Bailey’s ERA will stay north of 5.00, let alone 6.00. And there’s NO chance Silva (5-18, 6.81 ERA last two years with Seattle) is a sub-3.00 ERA pitcher. He’s going to have a correction, and we started to see it in his last start Saturday when he gave up five runs in five innings to Arizona.

The Reds are 6-2 in Bailey’s last eight starts, 5-0 in his last five at home and they’ve won both of his career home outings against Chicago, including that 5-4 win on April 9 when Bailey also matched up against Silva. Dirt cheap price on Cincy here!

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Re: 5/7/10

EVAN ALTEMUS

SAN ANTONIO SPURS -6.5

Anyone who watched Game 2 of the series between the Spurs and Suns noticed that Phoenix’s role and bench players were the key to that win. Phoenix was able to pull away from San Antonio in the 4th quarter with Steve Nash on the bench. Those players were able to step up because of the home crowd back-up. In Game 3 the Spurs will be very fired up and are in a must win situation. In addition, those other players for Phoenix will have a harder time stepping up without the motivation of the home crowd. San Antonio shows that they have the ability to beat Phoenix by this margin with the leads they had in Game 2. The Suns aren’t vastly better than the Spurs either, and this situation screams the Spurs. I also think it’s interesting that Suns player, Jared Dudley, said in his post game interview that Phoenix will go and try to steal a game in San Antonio. I don’t like that attitude in a team I’m looking to back. That means most of the team has a similar attitude that they will just try and win a game in San Antonio, but if they don’t oh well because they still have home court advantage. This spread is high, but it should be noted that sharp money bet it up a full point from 5.5 to 6.5. I think San Antonio will win this game by double digits and get the cover.

3 UNIT SELECTION SPURS.

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Re: 5/7/10

CHERRY PICKING SERVICE PLAYS
PLAY OF THE DAY
3 TEAM PARLAY
Philadelphia Phillies ML
Tampa Bay Rays ML
Minnesota Twins ML

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Re: 5/7/10

OUTLAW SPORTS ADVISORS
Boston Celtics +1

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Re: 5/7/10

MVPLOCKS
SL Cardinals -1 1/2 run line -130 (lock of the day)
KC Royals/Texas Rangers under 8
Minnesota Twins -1 1/2 -115
Phoenix Suns +6.5

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Re: 5/7/10

TIM TRUSHEL

20* NY Mets Under
REGULAR* Seattle Mariners

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Re: 5/7/10

WESTCOASTCAPPERS

The Blue Jays continue their stay in Chicago Friday night against the Chicago White Sox. This White Sox team is in a bad way right now. They are not playing good baseball, they are frustrated, and the fans are getting on them. Shaun Marcum has been pitching extremely well this season. He doesn't walk batters very often and his strikeout totals are up. Buehrle, on the other hand, has a .297 BAA. Since his perfect game last year he has just not been the same. Furthermore, he has given up 3 homers in his last 2 games. (He only gave up 1 in the rest of the season) Of his 4 homers this season 3 have been to lefties. A good point for the Blue Jays. A good reason for the value in this game is Toronto's inability to hit the left hander. Buehrle, though, is not the typical left hander. Look for Toronto's dynamic offense to outscore the struggling Sox offense and get another win vs. another left hander. (They beat one last night) westcoastcappers has

Toronto +105

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Re: 5/7/10

HAMMERtheBOOK

ROTATION 717/718: 4-UNITS: CLEVELAND CAVALIERS @ BOSTON CELTICS (OVER 193)

ROTATION 719/720: 3-UNITS: PHOENIX SUNS @ SAN ANTONIO SPURS (UNDER 207)

ROTATION 903/904: 5-UNITS: FLORIDA MARLINS @ WASHINGTON NATIONALS (MARLINS ML -105)

ROTATION 907/908: 3-UNITS: SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS @ NEW YORK METS (GIANTS ML +110)

ROTATION 909/910: 5-UNITS: CHICAGO CUBS @ CINCINNATI REDS (OVER 9-RUNS)

ROTATION 917/918: 4-UNITS: DETROIT TIGERS @ CLEVELAND INDIANS (OVER 9-RUNS)

ROTATION 913/914: 3-UNITS: MILWAUKEE BREWERS @ ARIZONA DIAMOND BACKS (UNDER 10-RUNS)

ROTATION 929/930: 5-UNITS: LOS ANGELES ANGELS @ SEATTLE MARINERS (MARINERS ML -130)

ROTATION 919/920: 3-UNITS: NEW YORK YANKEES @ BOSTON RED SOX (RED SOX ML -105)

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Re: 5/7/10

VEGAS RUNNER
NBA Total - Friday, May 7 2010 7:05PM
717 CLE / 718 BOS UNDER 194.0 Bodog triple-dime bet

Analysis:
*** NBA PLAYOFFS 3* BEST TOTAL BET OF THE DAY ***
UNDER 194 CLE/BOS....(3*)

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Re: 5/7/10

C-Star Sports

1000 Units ST Louis/Pittsburgh under the total
1000 Units Toronto/White Sox over the total
1000 Units Kansas City at Texas Over the total
50 Units Spurs minus the points over Suns
50 Units Boston/Cleveland under the total
50 Units NHL Philadelphia over Boston

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Re: 5/7/10

Sports Brokers Guaranteed Selections
Date: Friday, May 07, 2010
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NBA PLAYOFF PRIVATE PLAYERS CLUB WINNER
717 Cleveland -1 7:05 EST

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Re: 5/7/10

BLUELINE HOCKEY
4-1 in playoffs on top plays

TOP PLAY VAN. OVER 6