5-9-10

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Re: 5-9-10

NBA NEWS AND NOTES
GAME OF THE DAY
Suns at Spurs
By Steve Merril

Phoenix Suns at San Antonio Spurs (-3.5, 207)

Opening Line

Despite trailing 3-0 in this playoff series, the early money quickly came in on San Antonio when an opening line was posted Saturday morning.
Oddsmakers initially made the Spurs a 2.5-point home favorite and bettors quickly pushed the line up to -3.5. The early money also came in on the over as the opening total went from 206.5 up to 207.

When the series began, the Suns were installed as a small -135 favorite, but now that Phoenix has established a 3-0 series lead, the Suns are an overwhelming -2500 favorite to advance.

This means Phoenix has a 95 percent chance of winning this series and San Antonio has only a 5 percent chance of winning the next four games in a row. This is not surprising as NBA teams down 0-3 in a best-of-7 playoff series have never advanced in 88 past series.

Series Dominance

The Suns are known for their full-throttle, up-tempo style, while the Spurs strength has always been their half-court defensive play. This contrast of styles has favored San Antonio in the past but Phoenix has begun to exert their dominance this season.

The Suns are a perfect 6-0 ATS in the six head-to-head meetings this season and 5-1 SU in those games with their only loss coming by three points as a 4-point road underdog on February 28th. Phoenix has won the other five meetings by an average of 10.8 points per game and they have held 20-, 17-, 14-, 11- and 16-point leads in those five meetings.

Phoenix’s success has stemmed from the fact they have been able to dictate the tempo and force a fast-paced game. The over is 5-1 in the six meetings with the only under coming by half a point on Friday night with 206 points when the total was 206.5. The other five meetings have averaged 216.2 points per game with each of the five games totaling at least 212 points or more.

Raining 3’s

Phoenix has been deadly from beyond the arc in this series. The Suns have shot an incredible 47.7 percent (31-65) from 3-point land in the three games so far. The team’s best performance came in Game 3 when they hit 57.7 percent (15-26) from 3-point range. Goran Dragic was a perfect 5-for-5 from beyond the arc while Jason Richardson hit five of seven.

San Antonio has also knocked down their share of triples. After shooting a dismal 4-19 (21.1 percent) from 3-point land in Game 1, the Spurs have connected on a respectable 44.1 percent (15-34) from beyond the arc in Games 2 and 3.

Both teams have combined to hit a whopping 50 3’s over the first three games of this series.

Nash Is Cash

Steve Nash has played out of his mind so far in this series.
Nash has scored 68 points on 56.5 percent (26-46) shooting from the field. He has a 22-14 assist-to-turnover ratio over the three games, but the fact that he had just six assists in Games 2 and 3 prove that he’s looking to score more against the Spurs.

Nash is not a consistent big-time scorer these days; he’s more of a true point guard who sets his teammates up with wide-open shots instead of taking the shots himself. But when he’s as aggressive as he’s been in this series, the Suns are one tough team to beat.

Shoulder The Load

San Antonio Spurs guard Tony Parker was scheduled to have an MRI on his shoulder Saturday but ended up not having the exam and was cleared by team doctors to play in Game 4.

Parker fell hard on his shoulder in the second quarter of Friday's loss. He continued to play but made just 5-of-17 shots.

Parker was seen holding his shoulder in the final period and reportedly had X-rays after the game. Until Friday, Parker had been coming off the bench since returning from a broken hand in April. He is averaging 16.8 points and 5.4 assists in the postseason.

Finish The Game

San Antonio’s defense has done a decent job against the Suns for most of the first 36 minutes of each game. However, the Spurs have fallen asleep in the money quarter in all three of the games so far.

Phoenix has scored 39, 32 and 26 points in the fourth quarters of this series. That’s a total of 97 points scored on San Antonio’s defense when the game is on the line.

Numbers like that were never allowed by the defensive-minded Spurs teams of old. San Antonio’s offense has scored just 77 points in the fourth quarter, and when your opponent holds a 20-point advantage in the final 12 minutes, it’s almost impossible to win.

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Re: 5-9-10

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PICK 'N' ROLL

Sunday's Best NBA Bets

Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics (+1, 196.5)

Anyone see a pattern developing in the Cavaliers' playoff journey? Their success or failure seems to hinge on the amount of rest for LeBron James' right elbow.

After averaging 35 points in the first four games of the first-round series against Chicago, James' elbow flares up in Game 5 on April 27. He is held to a series-low 19 points and finishes the game by shooting a left-handed free throw due to the pain in his elbow as the Cavs close the series with a 96-94 win.

Speculation grows about LeBron's elbow, but after three days of rest and treatment James silences the rumors by hanging 35 on the Celtics in the opener of the second-round series. But after just one day of rest before Game 2, James puts on a passive, 24-point performance in the Celtics' rout that rekindles the elbow-gate debate.

Then on Friday night in Boston, after three more days to recover, James dismisses doubters again with a series-high 38 points as the Cavs roll to a 124-95 victory. Call it a coincidence or a conspiracy theory, but the more rest James gets between games the more restless his opponents become afterward.

"We had three days to sit and feel the pressure and then bounce back," James told reporters after Game 3. "Rest helped me and we were able to have a complete game."

But now the Cavs have only one full day to get ready for Sunday's Game 4 in Boston, and the Celtics are the team feeling the pressure to bounce back. It may be too short of a time period to call this a true trend, but it's difficult not to go with the elbow flow.

Pick: Boston Celtics


Phoenix Suns at San Antonio Spurs (-3.5, 207)

The Suns seem to have finally found a way to stop the Spurs' Big Three - outnumber them with their own Big 10.

While San Antonio's Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker have had their share of strong outings in this series, the rest of the Spurs have been no match for Phoenix's depth. In Games 2 and 3, the Suns' bench has outscored the Spurs' reserves 97-52 and out rebounded them 35-15.

"That's why this team is built for the playoffs," Suns backup Jared Dudley said. "People say you really can't win with a deep bench of 10 guys. I disagree. You can't win with a team that doesn't have any chemistry and this team has chemistry from top to bottom."

Dudley had 11 points and six boards to go with bench-mate Channing Frye's 15 and four in Game 2, then unheralded Goran Dragic exploded for 26 points in Friday's Game 3 to go with Leandro Barbosa's 13. The Suns simply have too many weapons to stop, while the aging Spurs seem to have too few.

Pick: Phoenix Suns

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Re: 5-9-10

Hondo

Hondo threw the no-blood splitter split with the Tigers and Blue Jays yesterday to leave the deficit holding at 145 burdettes.

Tonight, he'll try the Pie Guy at Fenway Pahk -- 10 units on Burnett to generate more misery for the Sawx.

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Re: 5-9-10

CAPPERS ACCESS
Celtics
Spurs
W. Sox

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Re: 5-9-10

DCI NBA

Season
Straight Up: 856-369 (.699)
ATS: 654-607 (.519)
ATS Vary Units: 1553-1461 (.515)
Over/Under: 626-644 (.493)
Over/Under Vary Units: 818-844 (.492)

Eastern Conference Playoffs, Semifinals
Game 4, best-of-7 series
BOSTON 98, Cleveland 97
Western Conference Playoffs, Semifinals
Game 4, best-of-7 series
Phoenix vs. SAN ANTONIO: TOO CLOSE TO CALL

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Re: 5-9-10

DCI NHL

Season: 441-298 (.597)

Western Conference Playoffs, Semifinals
Game 5, best-of-7 series
CHICAGO 5, Vancouver 4

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Re: 5-9-10

Gamblers data
blue jays -115

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Re: 5-9-10

Arthur Ralph Sports

442 - 322 run 58 %
Free play Sun Texas -160

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Re: 5-9-10

Joe Wiz's Daily Free Pick

Under 8 runs bet. Seattle and the Angels

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Re: 5-9-10

Dunkel MLB

Today's MLB Picks

Colorado at LA Dodgers

The Rockies look to follow up their 8-0 win yesterday and build on their 11-1 record in Ubaldo Jimenez' last 12 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Colorado is the pick (-130) according to Dunkel, which has the Rockies favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-130). Here are all of today's picks.

SUNDAY, MAY 9
Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST

Game 901-902: Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Dempster) 15.354; Cincinnati (Leake) 13.871
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-125); Over

Game 903-904: San Francisco at NY Mets (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Lincecum) 16.662; NY Mets (Perez) 15.625
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 8
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-200); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-200); Over

Game 905-906: Florida at Washington (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Sanchez) 14.300; Washington (Hernandez) 16.006
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Washington (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-125); Over

Game 907-908: St. Louis at Pittsburgh (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wainwright) 15.976; Pittsburgh (Maholm) 14.832
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-200); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-200); Under

Game 909-910: Atlanta at Philadelphia (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Kawakami) 15.234; Philadelphia (Hamels) 17.232
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 2; 10
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-200); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-200); Over

Game 911-912: San Diego at Houston (2:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Correia) 14.696; Houston (Oswalt) 14.890
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Houston (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-120); Under

Game 913-914: Colorado at LA Dodgers (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Jimenez) 16.077; LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 14.008
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 2; 6
Vegas Line: Colorado (-130); 7
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-130); Under

Game 915-916: Milwaukee at Arizona (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Narveson) 15.066; Arizona (Kennedy) 13.763
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-155); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+135); Under

Game 917-918: Detroit at Cleveland (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Scherzer) 15.046; Cleveland (Talbot) 15.263
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-115); Over

Game 919-920: Toronto at Chicago White Sox 2:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Romero) 16.417; White Sox (Floyd) 14.900
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Toronto (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-115); Under

Game 921-922: Baltimore at Minnesota (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Matusz) 15.321; Minnesota (Blackburn) 17.014
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-145); Over

Game 923-924: Kansas City at Texas (3:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Hochevar) 15.772; Texas (Feldman) 14.474
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-170); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+150); Over

Game 925-926: Tampa Bay at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Shields) 16.783; Oakland (Braden) 15.551
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-150); Under

Game 927-928: LA Angels at Seattle (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Santana) 13.251; Seattle (Vargas) 14.152
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Seattle (-110); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-110); Under

Game 929-930: NY Yankees at Boston (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Burnett) 17.342; Boston (Lester) 14.758
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 2 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Boston (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (+100); Over

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Re: 5-9-10

Dunkel NHL

Today's NHL Picks

Vancouver at Chicago

The Canucks look to bounce back from their 7-4 loss in Game 4 and build on their 6-1 record in their last 7 games after allowing 5 goals or more in the previous game. Vancouver is the pick (+165) according to Dunkel, which has the Canucks favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (+165). Here are all of today's picks.

SUNDAY, MAY 9
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 9-10: Vancouver at Chicago (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 12.381; Chicago 12.171
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-185); 6
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (+165); Over

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Re: 5-9-10

Dunkel NBA

Today's NBA Picks

Phoenix at San Antonio

The Spurs look to avoid elimination and build on their 9-3-1 ATS record in their last 13 games as a home favorite. San Antonio is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Spurs favored by 6 1/2. Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-3 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

SUNDAY, MAY 9
Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST

Game 725-726: Cleveland at Boston (3:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 124.546; Boston 123.277
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 200
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 1; 196 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-1); Over

Game 727-728: Phoenix at San Antonio (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 120.837; San Antonio 127.118
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 6 1/2; 211
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 3 1/2; 207
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-3 1/2); Over

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Re: 5-9-10

King Creole | NBA Total Sun, 05/09/10 - 3:30 PM ƒŠ

double-dime bet 725 CLE / 726 BOS Under 197.0 Bookmaker.com
Analysis:
3:30pm ET / Game Four / Cleveland Cavaliers @ Boston Celtics
2** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL

Sunday's OU line in Game Four is on the high side for an Eastern Conference playoff game... particularly in the later rounds. On Friday night, the line was 193 points for Game Three. The oddsmakers have made a big jump for Sunday's game.... with a line in the range of 196.5 to 197 points.
This worked for yesterday's winner (Hawks / Magic UNDER)... and it applies again in this game.
2-12 O/U since 96: All NBA Playoff Games in Rounds 2, 3, or 4 for EASTERN CONFERENCE opponents... when the OU line is > 193 points (Cavs / Celtics). This has gone 1-9 O/U in Game Three or GREATER... and a perfect 0-5 O/U in Game Four or GREATER.

Let's look at the '2/4/ game specifically. That would be Round TWO / Game FOUR...
3-10 O/U since 06 / 2-8 O/U since 07: All '2/4' games. If both teams went 'OVER' in their last game, the results improve to 1-7 O/U... and when the OU line is 210 < points, the results improve to a perfect 0-7 O/U.

Cleveland won Game One of this series.... lost Game Two... and won Game Three. let's plug in that SU progression and see what pops out.
3-10 O/U since 06: All NBA Playoff GAME FOUR home teams playing off a SU loss... a SU win... and a SU loss (Celtics). UNDERDOGS in this situation have gone 1-7 O/U.

It's been a weird series. Boston won Game two on the ROAD by double digits... and then lost Game Three at HOME by double digits...
1-5 O/U since 1995: All NBA Playoff teams playing off a DD SU home loss... and a DD SU road win (Celtics). UNDERDOGS in this role have gone 0-3 O/U.

1-5 O/U: All NBA Playoff GAME FOUR's when a #1 SEED (Cavs) favorite is playing a #4 SEED opponent (Celtics).

A final look at the Over / Under line range....
0-6 O/U since 2001: All NBA Playoff GAME FOUR's when the OU line is > 195 points and < 200 points....

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Re: 5-9-10

Papayagang

20* philly on the run line
20* san francisco run line
20* colorado rockies moneyline

NBA
20* Cleveland Cavs-1