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The Spurs look washed up after falling into an 0-3 hole. They’ve gone just 4-6 in their past 10 games, including a brutal 3-6-1 record against the spread in that span. San Antonio has done a pretty solid job on NBA odds when playing at home over the past few weeks, going 6-3-1 against the spread, but it didn’t matter one bit in Friday’s 110-96 loss to Phoenix. Tim Duncan and Tony Parker scored just 25 points—combined.
Phoenix, on the other hand, looks unstoppable right now. The Suns have ripped off victories in eight of their last 10 games, not to mention a great 8-2 run at the sportsbook. Another game in San Antonio certainly won’t faze the team, as Phoenix is 7-3 in its last 10 games against the spread when playing away from home.
At this point, you might as well stick a fork in the Spurs. The Suns mean business this year.
Matchup: Phoenix at San Antonio
Time: 8:05 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Over (206.5 -110)
Suns vs. Spurs 8:00 p.m. est. TNT (Phoenix leads series 3-0)
HC Greg Popovich made a mini-makeover with the addition of Richard Jefferson and San Antonio is still one of the elite teams in the NBA this season. The Boys from the Lone Star State found out in game #3 that their bench is going to have to play a huge role if the outcome of this series is going to change. HC Popovich experimented with some combination's that gave the Suns problems. Stopping the penetration of the middle by Steve Nash has the Spurs coaching staff going crazy. HC Greg Popovich has a magic number that keeps popping up when we consider an investment on this team. Our magic number for the Spurs in this game is (96) as they have lost only (11) of their past (72) playoff games when posting (96) or more points. San Antonio has put an end to the Phoenix postseason run (5) times since 2003. This series has played Over the Total in (5) of (6) match-ups and the Spurs are (5-0) ATS Over the Total off a double digit home loss in their prior home game. Surely the Spurs will get their Magic Number of (96) but the problem will be holding down the Red Hot Suns. We also note that Spurs HC Popovich is (87-64) ATS Over the Total after a loss by (10) or more points during his time as Head Coach of San Antonio. Western Conference scoring slug fest as the Spurs try an remain in this series to fight another day.
3* #727 Phoenix - San Antonio Over the Total
jeff benton sunday
1-0 yesterday 30 dime winner on Orlando. overall, 32-40-3 MINUS 65 dimes.
Sunday's Winner 20 Dime: BOSTON CELTICS
Celtics
There’s just no way. There’s just no way the Cavaliers are going to shoot nearly 60 percent again today as they did in Game 3. There’s just no way the Cavaliers are going to get to the free-throw line 34 times (let alone make 31 foul shots) again today as they did in Game 3. There’s just no way the Cavaliers are going to outrebound Boston 45-30. And there’s just no way that Boston is going to miss 13 of 17 three-point field goals and get a combined 18 points in 70 minutes from Paul Pierce and Ray Allen, as happened in Game 3.
The point: While Cleveland absolutely deserved to win Game 3, there’s NO WAY the Cavaliers are 29 points better than Boston. That was just one of those “perfect storm” games where everything Cleveland did went right and everything the Celtics did went very, very wrong. You can expect Boston, which outplayed the Cavaliers for most of Game 1 and all of Game 2 in Cleveland, to come out today with a vengeance. After all, this team has already made dubious history, as the Game 2 loss was the worst home playoff defeat in the Celtics’ glorious history. If that doesn’t fire up Garnett, Pierce, Allen, Rondo, etc., nothing will.
To show you just how fluky Cleveland’s performance was in Game 3, consider that in the first two contests (on their home floor), the Cavs shot a combined 66-for-148, or 45 percent. On Friday, they went 44-for-74 (59.5 percent). In Games 1 and 2, Boston had an 84-73 rebounding edge. On Friday, Cleveland was +15 on the boards.
One more point to make: Going back to their thrilling seven-game playoff series in 2008, these teams have met 18 times and they’ve split those 18 meetings. And over the past 16 meetings, only once has a team won consecutive games, with the squads alternating wins and losses in the last five clashes going back to mid-March. Also, only once in their last 27 postseason contests have the Celtics lost back-to-back games.
This is serious gut-check time for Boston, and I’m banking on the team that showed up in that 18-point win at Cleveland in Game 2 to take the floor today. I’m not predicting a similar 18-point Celtics blowout, but I’m confident that this one will be in the bag with four minutes left to play.
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