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Game of the Month - 6 Unit Play Take 972 Detroit (+110) vs. Boston (7 pm ET)
I don't understand the disrespect that the Tigers are getting here. They are 12-4 at home, and they just came off of winning three of four at home against he Yankees, so they are obviously in a good place. In order for a road team to be favored they should be starting an ace. Instead, Boston is pitching Clay Buchholz. Buchholz is coming off of two rough starts in a row - he had a terrible WHIP of 2.8 in his last outing. He's not dominant enough to justify this kind of respect for the road team - especially when that road team is only 6-6 away from home. This would be an even better bet if the Tigers weren't starting Max Scherzer, but then the price wouldn't be nearly this nice if a better starter was in place. Scherzer hasn't been great in his last three, but his control has been improving, and the Red Sox have never seen him before. Neither of these pitchers are going to go really deep in all likelihood, and the Tigers have a definite edge in the bullpen right now, so this is a very good spot.
3 Unit Play Take 958 Atlanta (-1.5 +160) vs. Arizona (7:30 pm ET)
Arizona has lost six straight, and they are going to face an Atlanta team that just swept Milwaukee and is 8-4 at home. It's hard to be to optimistic about the Diamondbacks here. Atlanta won their last three by a combined score of 28-7, so their offense and their defense are both in a pretty good place right now. The Braves are starting Kenshin Kawakami. His 0-6 record is scary, but he's been consistently decent and would be much better than that with a bit of luck. He can't be trusted to toss a shutout or anything, but he can throw a decent game - especially against a team in a collective slump. Ian Kennedy goes for Arizona. He's been good in his last two at first glance, but those have come against Houston and Milwaukee - teams in rough shape when he faced them. This is a much tougher opponent, and I don't trust to him to stand up well here.
3 Unit Play Take 964 San Diego (-1.5 +150) vs. Dodgers (10 pm ET)
The Padres are a very good 11-5 at home, and they are just coming off a sweep of the Giants and a 5-1 road trip, so they are in a very good place right now. Jon Garland gets the start, and he has been brilliant - just two earned runs in his last five starts. He's in the zone, and he has done well against the Dodgers in the past. Russ Ortiz goes for the Dodgers. He's been terrible, and is a sign of just how much trouble the Dodgers have with their rotation. He has allowed 15 runs in his last 6.2 innings, and has walked seven over that stretch as well. Not good. San Diego has a big location edge, a big bullpen edge, a huge pitching edge, and is in form. That sounds like a big overall edge to me.
3 Unit Play Take 966 San Francisco (-1.5 +150) vs. Houston (10 pm ET)
San Francisco will be so relieved to be done with San Diego that I expect a big game from them. The Giants are 0-6 against the Padres, and 18-9 against everyone else. They have score just 1.3 runs per game against San Diego, and five runs against everyone else. The last time they were swept by San Diego they went on to win four of their next five over St. Louis and Philadelphia, so we know they can bounce back well. Houston is in pretty good shape as well right now - they just swept St. Louis on the road. They are still just 6-6 on the road, though, so they aren't a dominant road team by any means, and they can't consistently be trusted to play like they have in their last four. The pitchers here are pretty much a wash - both Felipe Paulino and Todd Wellemeyer are decent pitchers in decent form who will likely have decent outings. Wellemeyer has a slight edge because Paulino has not been good on the road so far. That leaves this one down to the quality of the overall teams, and in that case there is no question that San Francisco has a large edge
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